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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 181
From: creativename | Posted: 8/4/2005 10:25:24 PM | Message Detail
DK will almost assuredly win, but this next match is quite unpredictable in terms of %es.

We have values of 23.55 and 25.34 for DK, and of 16.12 and 23.57 for Sam Fisher. You can work out results of DK with just under 50%, 53.5%, 65.8%, and 68.2%. With the volatility coming mostly from Fisher.

Don't think this match will say much about DK vs. Master Chief, as Master Chief should never be in danger of actually losing that match. Unless DK gets close to 70% here.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/4/2005 10:25:26 PM | Message Detail
2005 looks a lot less friendly to the casual characters than 2003 was.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/4/2005 10:27:31 PM | Message Detail
I'm glad I have the highest DK pick. I'd love to see DK/Chief be close.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/4/2005 10:27:44 PM | Message Detail
...Ulti expects DK to outperform Magus?
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 8/4/2005 10:28:27 PM | Message Detail
You must be truly arrogant if you think that your prediction will change the outcome of the match! ;)
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LordOfDabu.nS)
To be defeated by us is an honor.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/4/2005 10:29:48 PM | Message Detail
No, I meant that I already think DK will get in the high 60s. Master Chief bombing today was a surprise, and it would be cool to see MC/DK be close. The two are unrelated.

And Fisher overperformed by a ton in 2003, I would think.

Grant me a wish, my master
Take heed of me
I have been loyal servant
Heartfelt, humble

Gave up - what belongs to me
Gave up my greed
My self-examination
Made me see, to be me

I am now like Judas, done
Ashamed of what I've become
Fear for life I wear as a ring
To bask in your favor, I will kill the king

You say I am invincible
I cannot die,
I know, but anyway
The words, they maim me

Grant me a wish, my master
Compassion, please
I'd like be a human
...maybe one day

I am now like Judas, done
Ashamed of what I've become
Fear of life I wear as a ring
To bask in your favor, I will kill the king

[Entreaty:] let me go
Master, I hate you so
How can I sleep my nights
When my whole being cries

I tried to be like everyone
Open my soul
But what I had to give
Resulted loathing

Enchanted by the power
Licked by the grace
One beautiful black flower
The end of the human race

I will
with pride now face my faith
King and Queen now lie in state
This ring I wear is a powerful thing
I bask in your favor, I have killed the king

[Entreaty:] let me go
Master, I hate you so
How can I sleep my nights
When my whole being cries

I had a nightmare
The Wolf eating The Raven

Entrails of life on my plate
And I ate 'em..

Interested in what I see
Try that Rorcharch test on me
Have you seen the beauty of the
Enticing beast

[Entreaty:] let me go
Master, I hate you so
I cannot sleep my nights
When my whole being cries

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/4/2005 10:33:23 PM | Message Detail
Magus would get more off of Sam Fisher this year than his measily 66% 2003.
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Summer Contest 2005 - Points: 15/16
Today's Prediction: Master Chief - Tomorrow: Donkey Kong
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/4/2005 10:33:43 PM | Message Detail
We're not at 500 just yet, mate.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/4/2005 10:47:59 PM | Message Detail
Hm...there are ways to possibly predict DK/Sam while ignoring extrapolated standings...

DK = Vercetti roughly; Vercetti received 62% against Max Payne; Max Payne beat Gordon with 54%; Sam Fisher beat Gordon with 55%; so, DK should probably win with around 60% using that idea. Of course, that's assuming everyone's constant.

I have DK over Fisher with 64% in the Oracle challenge...I'm tempted to knock it down a couple points, but I'm too worried it may not work out...meh, I'll just hope that DK has grown since last year. Hey, Bowser seemed to...

Also, after seeing this match CATS being above Robotnik in the Sp2K5 extrapolated stats is much more believable. I also had difficulty believing Bowser was ranked that high, but today has more strongly indicated that Sp2K5 extrapolated standings based on least squares is indeed accurate...

For the fun of it...if Master Chief ends with 68.89%, Ganondorf would be expected to beat MC with 62.24%. That also puts Yuna above MC.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/4/2005 10:51:23 PM | Message Detail
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/5/2005 1:33:43 AM | Message Detail | #408
We're not at 500 just yet, mate.


As if Wolf and Raven should have to wait.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 8/4/2005 10:53:24 PM | Message Detail
DK = Vercetti roughly; Vercetti received 62% against Max Payne; Max Payne beat Gordon with 54%; Sam Fisher beat Gordon with 55%; so, DK should probably win with around 60% using that idea. Of course, that's assuming everyone's constant.

How is that not using extrapolated statistics? That's pretty much what they are by definition.
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LordOfDabu.nS)
To be defeated by us is an honor.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 8/4/2005 10:54:41 PM | Message Detail
I'm still pretty surprised by this pathetic performance by Master Chief. I was totally off in predicting his strength.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 8/4/2005 10:56:16 PM | Message Detail
How is that not using extrapolated statistics? That's pretty much what they are by definition.

I'd like to know too.

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Fennsiv is a dirty slut who deserves to burn in hell.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:02:13 PM | Message Detail
How is that not using extrapolated statistics? That's pretty much what they are by definition.

Well, I didn't really use them. It's just that if you assumie Sam > Max by a small amount and Vercetti > DK by a small amount, then DK vs. Sam Fisher being slightly closer (say a percent or two) than Vercetti vs. Max Payne is just common sense.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:07:54 PM | Message Detail
You realize that what you just did is how the list of extrapolated statistics is basically compiled? The only difference is that they say "A will get x% on B" instead of simply "A > B."
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LordOfDabu.nS)
To be defeated by us is an honor.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:15:22 PM | Message Detail
I know that, but people would've used that logic even if nobody thought of the idea of "extrapolated standings".

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:16:49 PM | Message Detail
I see what Haste2's saying. He's doing "obvious extrapolation". It's something you can easily do without even having knowledge of the X-Stats. But it's more basic in the sense that you can do it just by looking at three polls or something, rather than pyramiding up to Link like the stats currently do.

Same result, more basic route.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:27:13 PM | Message Detail
I used to pick matches like that. It was a huge pain in the ass.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:32:31 PM | Message Detail
Ulti does that song come from MGS?
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I need to put something here.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:50:41 PM | Message Detail
90.90% for Master Chief over CATS.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: TheGreatMaster | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:52:33 PM | Message Detail
82% for Chief over CATS.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:52:41 PM | Message Detail
89% for MC
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Summer Contest 2005 - Points: 15/16
Today's Prediction: Master Chief - Tomorrow: Donkey Kong
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:57:00 PM | Message Detail
I fail at prediction percentages these days. I was so good back in '04. :P But, I say Leonhart's about right...91% is what I'm betting.

Hey, 94% predicted DK over Bub even though DK received only 62% of the vote. :P

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:57:32 PM | Message Detail
94%. CATS is like... infamous fodder. Casuals won't overestimate him against any known character. The only reason I'm not putting him at 96ish is because he'll have more joke brackets behind him and all that.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:57:55 PM | Message Detail
93.02%
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:58:13 PM | Message Detail
89% for MC
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: Eggplant Lord | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:58:21 PM | Message Detail
I'll go with 88.5% prediction...

///
I simply must say I'm completely out of ideas for a sig!
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:59:01 PM | Message Detail
Hopefully MC will crush DK next round, and bow out to Crono gracefully. >_<

The one thing that bothers me so much though is the "overperformance" by Frog. How could such a thing happen? Solid Snake being affected that badly by a picture? Do we really just not have a good explanation?
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/4/2005 11:59:19 PM | Message Detail
93.56% for MC
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)
From: Eggplant Lord | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:00:12 AM | Message Detail
Vote Accepted
Donkey Kong 84.62% 11
Sam Fisher 15.38% 2
TOTAL VOTES 13

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I simply must say I'm completely out of ideas for a sig!
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:00:20 AM | Message Detail
Donkey Kong 85.48% 53
Sam Fisher 14.52% 9
TOTAL VOTES 62
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:00:22 AM | Message Detail
Donkey Kong 85.25% 52
Sam Fisher 14.75% 9
TOTAL VOTES 61

HOLY CRAP RAPAGE
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)
From: Shivan Reincarnated | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:00:28 AM | Message Detail
Donkey Kong 86.96% 40
Sam Fisher 13.04% 6
TOTAL VOTES 46

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Don't blame me. Blame yourself or God ~ Delita
Summer 2005 Score: 16/17: D.K. vs Sam Fisher
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:00:29 AM | Message Detail
Donkey Kong 89.19% 33
Sam Fisher 10.81% 4
TOTAL VOTES 37

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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (0) Voters
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:00:35 AM | Message Detail
Donkey Kong 87.18% 34
Sam Fisher 12.82% 5
TOTAL VOTES 39

It would appear that the board doesn't care for Mr. Fisher.
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Summer Contest 2005: 15/16
Today: Master Chief, Tomorrow: Donkey Kong
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:00:45 AM | Message Detail
Donkey Kong 86.96% 60
Sam Fisher 13.04% 9
TOTAL VOTES 69

92.2% for MC.
From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:00:50 AM | Message Detail
Vote Accepted
Donkey Kong 100% 4
Sam Fisher 25% 1
TOTAL VOTES 4

Vote #5, first for Sam.
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Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:00:59 AM | Message Detail
980 perfects left.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:01:08 AM | Message Detail
I love seeing DK owning so much right now.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:02:02 AM | Message Detail
DK > MC

BOOK IT!!!

>.>
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:02:08 AM | Message Detail
DK > MC

BOOK IT!!!

>.>
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Donkey Kong vs. Sam Fisher - Bracket: DK - Vote: DK (16/17)
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:02:11 AM | Message Detail
Donkey Kong 76.92% 80
Sam Fisher 23.08% 24
TOTAL VOTES 104

GO DK!!!

92.2% for MC... I was gonna go with 91... meh.


In other news... Go Donkey Kong!
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:02:11 AM | Message Detail
It would appear that the board doesn't care for Mr. Fisher.

Heh, that was obvious before this match began. Too bad DK won't keep this up.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:02:48 AM | Message Detail
Like these results

Go DK!
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I've been Pwned by KoaC. He really is the king of all cosmos.
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:03:02 AM | Message Detail
I knew 67% was too low...maybe this is just a brutal board vote.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:03:06 AM | Message Detail
If DK does indeed keep this up, can we all admit to a Nintendo boom?
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: TheGreatMaster | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:03:39 AM | Message Detail
While I know DK likely won't keep this up... this is beautiful to behold.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:04:27 AM | Message Detail
If DK does indeed keep this up, can we all admit to a Nintendo boom?

No, we can all just admit that Sam sucks.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:04:54 AM | Message Detail
DK still has over 76%? XD...

At least I'm glad I didn't lower my Oracle prediction. It would hilarious if DK outperformed Master Chief percentage-wise...

Oh, and think of the clashes in certain theories right now if DK keeps this up...

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/5/2005 12:05:02 AM | Message Detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
16-----1032-----94.9612403
15-----4183-----94.9796797
14-----5782-----94.1542719
13-----6485-----93.0454896
12-----5713-----92.7008577
11-----4299-----91.2305187
10-----2912-----91.6552198
9------1720-----90.9302326
8------834------91.0071942
7------373------90.3485255
6------126------80.1587302
5------68-------75.0000000
4------36-------44.4444444
3------46-------15.2173913
2------57-------5.2631579
1------115------1.7391304
0------12-------0.0000000

Pretty high performance all around. Still a lot more favorite brackets to fall, though.

Three people fell off the Top 50 today. Stalphanx, TheMisanthrope and the one who had CATS taking it all and made it to 12th before CATS had to fall ksakura!

We now have a person with Sarah Kerrigan winning it all on the Top 50...
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
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