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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 181
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:42:01 AM | Message Detail
I do think Frog's overrated, but not as much as everyone claims....after all, Master Chief beat Crash Bandicoot way worse than KOS-MOS did. People always seem to forget that.

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From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:43:00 AM | Message Detail
Beating a PSX platforming charcter worse than a cult character isen't anything impressive.
From: transience | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:43:36 AM | Message Detail
I'm the first person to throw Frog's number out, but give MC a chance here. if he's under 70% by noon, then we've got something.

..though even a 70/30 match puts MC at 23.66%, way below his unadjusted number. yay for Frog.
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From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:43:50 AM | Message Detail
Crash has been fading into obscurity for a while now. It wouldn't be surprising to see him drop last year. Regardless, at worst, the Chief is at his 2003 value, which is still above DK.
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From: creativename | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:44:58 AM | Message Detail
Oh come on, this says little about Frog.

Why can't people look at the obvious? I already talked at length about how the numbers indicated Master Chief not being able to get in the high 70's.
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From: Dranze | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:45:31 AM | Message Detail
If you use his adjusted value, he's overrated, also, I think that Solid **** pic overrated him a bit too.
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Summer Contest 2005 - Points: 15/16
Today's Prediction: Master Chief - Tomorrow: Donkey Kong
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:46:22 AM | Message Detail
Why can't people look at the obvious?

That's too complicated. We'd rather make random conjecture.
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From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:47:15 AM | Message Detail
Liquid also was alot weaker than the stats said, and Frog struggling with Riku doesen't help either.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:48:35 AM | Message Detail
If Master Chief finishes with only 70%, it pretty much seals the deal for the Frog/Chief/Liquid trio of 2004 being overrated as all hell. Granted, most of us assumed this before, but I can't see how it can be argued against if Chief can barely scrounge 70%. Unless, of course, you want to believe a close-up CATS picture makes that much of a difference.
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From: voltch | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:49:52 AM | Message Detail
based on mc's current performance. what do you think of people who say he's top 12 material?
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From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:51:42 AM | Message Detail
Well, CATS is getting his good picture. If you use CATS' villain contest performance, Master Chief is actually right on the mark >_<

If.
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From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:51:56 AM | Message Detail
Er, that's if he finished with 70%.
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From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:53:11 AM | Message Detail
For the record...

70% on 2004 CATS puts MC at 22.26%, below Bomberman. A tripling puts him at 26.72%, right below Knuckles.

70% on Sp2K5 CATS puts MC at 28.16%, between Kirby and Dante. A tripling puts him at 33.8%, otherwise known as Ganondorf's level.

So yeah, assuming CATS is at that level, nobody should've expected a tripling.
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From: creativename | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:54:32 AM | Message Detail
There's a fair bit that indicates Frog and his section were overrated, but this says little about that.

The simple fact is, Face CATS is significantly stronger than Eggplant CATS. Which is something we already knew.

And Master Chief is going to go up a lot from this point anyway.
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From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:55:19 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, but, there's absolutely no reason for Cats to increase.
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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:55:23 AM | Message Detail
So yeah, assuming CATS is at that level, nobody should've expected a tripling.

Well, Chief did get the most hyped game since Super Mario Bros. 3. That, plus assuming an Ansem overperformance on Ganondorf, and I can see why people could expect a trippling. Hell, I expected more.
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From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:56:02 AM | Message Detail
Recognizability due to a close-up. CATS needs to be recognizable to do well. He's not exactly a household name.

Only a household pet.
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From: creativename | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:57:54 AM | Message Detail
What. The. ****.

There are still people trying to say that CATS didn't benefit from his picture? I thought Ansem vs. CATS already proved this. We even had a mini-discussion a few weeks ago on how even if pics don't matter, they clearly matter for CATS.

Trying to say that his face picture doesn't help CATS is lunacy.
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:58:50 AM | Message Detail
Damn. Pretty poor performance from Master Chief thus far, but he should shoot up like crazy with the day vote.

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From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/4/2005 12:59:04 AM | Message Detail
...Where did Ansem overperforming on Ganondorf come from? Because CATS increased?
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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:00:07 AM | Message Detail
Pigondorf. Bacondorf. Whatever you want to call him.
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From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:00:50 AM | Message Detail
What. The. ****.

There are still people trying to say that CATS didn't benefit from his picture? I thought Ansem vs. CATS already proved this. We even had a mini-discussion a few weeks ago on how even if pics don't matter, they clearly matter for CATS.

Trying to say that his face picture doesn't help CATS is lunacy.


I forgot pic factor, to be quite honest and blunt. I dont like it counting for anything ever, but if its something that won't make MC look as bad as he is, then whatever.

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From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:01:35 AM | Message Detail
It still says "Ganondorf" next to the little circle. His name is enough for him to do well.

But if that's true, he might be in a bit of trouble if he gets it again.
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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:02:18 AM | Message Detail
Pics matter, people. They may be more of an extreme difference maker for the likes of CATS and Kefka, but I fully believe they can affect any character's performance, be it ever so slightly.
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From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:03:53 AM | Message Detail
Hmmm...MC's having trouble going up right now.

After one hour, this match has 5359 votes.

Tidus/KoAC - 5510
Bowser/Chun-Li - 5175
Ryu/Rikku - 5568
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From: Kaxon | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:11:57 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:13:20 AM | Message Detail
MC's starting to chop down CATS's percentage...and when the day-vote comes, especially during after-school hours, we should expect a massacre. We know Ansem won with solely the day-vote, and we know MC took the lead over Frog with solely the day-vote...we've seen Hayabusa, Halo, and countless Xbox-related polls get an advantage with the day-vote (though not EVERY one, to be fair), and MC should expand further upon his legend of such now that Halo 2 and Xbox Live have made their major impacts. It doesn't hurt that the new Halo 2 Map Pack was recently released, too.

Goin' to bed now...Master Chief or Tidus, who wins?
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From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:14:29 AM | Message Detail
Whoa, just because pics matter for cult Cats doesn't mean they matter for everyone. Popular characters (or even ones people just know) shouldn't be affected by pictures. Solid Snake for example. People know his name and who he is. Just his picture would never alter drastically results.
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From: Crono801 | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:16:53 AM | Message Detail
I think Solid **** and Bacondorf both led to overestimation of certain characters in the stats.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:19:57 AM | Message Detail
Wait, not goin' to bed jjuusstt yet; I just got to lookin' at something. Anybody who wants to take a guess at who our two best vote-drawers thus far are who still lost ought to guess now, before looking down.



Riku and Rikku. I just found that interesting in both the two highest having very similar names and how both surprisingly got more sharted than we once thought.

NOW bed time for me. G-nite ya'll.
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From: Kaxon | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:21:24 AM | Message Detail
Sorry, I wouldn't have deleted my message if I knew you were responding to it.

Our data is definitely stronger for CATS, but I still think there's simply no way pics don't matter for everyone. Haven't you ever seen a match where you just don't care about either character, or you like them about the same? Now imagine you just saw the poll, you don't have a bracket, and you haven't spent the last month talking about the contest... how likely is it that the picture has no effect on your decision? Not very likely.

Now remember that a casual voter is that much more likely not to have a strong opinion on the match than you are.
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Current Score: 15/16 | Today: Master Chief over Cats =(
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:22:22 AM | Message Detail
Hey, that is pretty quirky. If a character named Rikkku ever makes it in the contest, I'm putting his/her racist ass straight into the Sweet 16.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:23:51 AM | Message Detail
I'm sure pics matter a little bit in every match. But I think it only really matters in extreme cases like Face CATS >>>>>> Eggplant CATS and Angel Kefka > Marilyn Mansion and Lettuce Kefka.
From: Eggplant Lord | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:28:31 AM | Message Detail
Ahh, the mysterious, demented possibility of voters mistaking Rikku for Riku. I don't know whether to laugh or cry...


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Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:29:54 AM | Message Detail
Our data is definitely stronger for CATS, but I still think there's simply no way pics don't matter for everyone. Haven't you ever seen a match where you just don't care about either character, or you like them about the same? Now imagine you just saw the poll, you don't have a bracket, and you haven't spent the last month talking about the contest... how likely is it that the picture has no effect on your decision? Not very likely.

Now remember that a casual voter is that much more likely not to have a strong opinion on the match than you are.


Well, that assumes a lot of things. And honestly, we dont' give the casual bracket makers enough credit. They aren't mindless drones without opinions. For the stronger characters, they're strong because people know and like them, not because their pictures have been consistently the best against other blah characters. Pic factor is a minimal factor at best, and then for only blah characters.

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From: Applekidjosh | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:43:52 AM | Message Detail
So I'm posting this an hour or so late, but did this poll start before midnight PST?

I refreshed at 1:40AM CST, 20 minutes before it should have been up, and the new poll was up. Could just be my computer's clock being wrong, but it definitely surprised me.


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From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:45:36 AM | Message Detail
WDF definition is up. If anyone has anything to add to it, feel free.

~*ST*~
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From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/4/2005 1:46:05 AM | Message Detail
This poll went up almost exactly at midnight.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/4/2005 2:50:42 AM | Message Detail
Wow, MC is doing terrible, even for the early hours. Good thing for him the early hours of a match are always by far his worst time or 70% would be out of reach for him.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/4/2005 2:55:40 AM | Message Detail
If anybodys interested, frog had over 58% on MC at this point in time. MC should make it to about a tripling considering this is CATS were talking about. Frog might suck with the day vote, but at least he doesn't roll over and die when it comes.
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From: creativename | Posted: 8/4/2005 3:01:52 AM | Message Detail
We're almost 3 hours into the match. I'd say a tripling is out of the question.

As for the pic factor...as I've stated before, when you change the way things look, it affects things. That's just marketing. Marketing is all about creativity, testing/experimenting, and statistics.

Until we have actual data (a split test with multiple match pics used randomly for the same match), it is unscientific to make a blanket statement that "pics don't matter." This simply can't be said. And the little concrete data we do seem to have is for CATS, where his pic obviously does matter (and this should've been apparent to all before this match took place).
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From: creativename | Posted: 8/4/2005 3:02:52 AM | Message Detail
Anyway, I really have no idea why we're rehashing this whole pic factor discussion again. There's nothing new that needs to be said here.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/4/2005 3:10:07 AM | Message Detail
We're almost 3 hours into the match. I'd say a tripling is out of the question.

You're probably right, but that doesn't mean he won't come very close to it. This match is around lloyd vs. wesker in vote totals right now. I'd say some of that has to do with MC being almost entirely unable to draw in votes early on. If he increased 8% from here until the end of the match on Frog, I'd be chocked if he didn't do more on CATS.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/4/2005 3:13:09 AM | Message Detail
Out of the new pictures which do you think are the best? I think Sam Fisher vs. DK and Zidane vs. crono are easily on top. All of them are very recognizable in their pics.
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From: armitage999 | Posted: 8/4/2005 3:20:11 AM | Message Detail
I'd say CATS'll probably bottom out around 31-32%, crawling back to probably just under 33%. I'll be surprised if he drops below 30%. The Chief will rally votes considerably during the day, heck, he's beginning to do so now, but CATS'll still grab enough to avoid the tripling.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/4/2005 3:41:12 AM | Message Detail
CATS won't be coming back in percentage later on. MC sucks with the first night vote, but he's fine with the second one. MC is just really really bad in the early going, he's going to break 70% later on. Book it.... or something like that.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/4/2005 3:57:35 AM | Message Detail
Hasn't MC increased his lead by 5%? I think with this being his worst time he's going to get really close to that 70%.
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From: cyko | Posted: 8/4/2005 4:45:11 AM | Message Detail

There are still people trying to say that CATS didn't benefit from his picture? I thought Ansem vs. CATS already proved this. We even had a mini-discussion a few weeks ago on how even if pics don't matter, they clearly matter for CATS.


whoever still says that pics don't matter after this match deserves to get kicked squarely in the nads.

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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/4/2005 5:05:02 AM | Message Detail
Master Chief 63% 9995
CATS 37% 5869
TOTAL VOTES 15864

Just another 7% to go.
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From: Yesmar | Posted: 8/4/2005 5:51:09 AM | Message Detail
Hahahahahahahahaha!!!

It would be so funny if DK did better than MC. Probably won't happen, but would still be hilarious.

during after-school hours,


??????
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