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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 180
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:02:11 PM | Message Detail
1) CATS ranking above half the contest (including Robotnik).

If anything, that should show that villains are not cared about in the least here at GameFAQs. There's reason only Sephiroth, Ganon, and Bowser are worth anything in this contest.

2) Bowser doing over 10% better than what Mario did against Sephiroth.

You really overexaggerate numbers, for whatever reason. Bowser did

3) If you drop Sephiroth by 4% to compensate for Bowser/Ganondorf's performances, it makes Liquid Snake look like **** in the stats, despite Liquid being so close to Frog/Master Chief and Solid Snake.

Would you please stop that. It's seriously annoying to have this arbitrary numbers go flying around like that. You only drop Sephiroth by 2.9% in the stats; that makes Ganon's increase marginal, Bowser increase by 4%, and I haven't even bothered with Liquid, because no matter what you do he looks like ****. But it should be ver obvious by now that Liquid was never that high to begin with. Hell, Frog is lower than what some may have believed prior. The only one who I could see holding that general position is Master Chief thanks to Halo 2.

If Lloyd gets over 35% on Zero,

That's an "if" an "if" that isn't not exactly the best thing that is looking to happen. There's only a few choice people even expecting 35% out of Lloyd. Transcience, myself, and I think you. There's someone else with a D in their name that is in this topic and I always get you two confused. I think his name is Delirium Trigger.

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From: armitage999 | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:03:24 PM | Message Detail
If Mario wins this contest, he breaks 45% on Sephiroth. Book it.

I think personally that anybody that wins this contest will get that on him.

I'm no stats pro, obviously, but that's the way I'd see it.
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From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:05:57 PM | Message Detail
If Diablo bombs against Kratos (who isn't even the main character), then the Sp2k5 results will be deemed worthless.

I have said from the very beginning that Kratos would rank above Lloyd. I'm sticking to that until I have evidence that he will not. You do NOT, under any circumstances, HAVE to be the main character in order to have some strength. I think Kratos is very likely to rank ahead of him due to how much the fanbase dislikes Lloyd and how much they like Kratos.

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From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:09:59 PM | Message Detail
I have Samus in my bracket, but I'm beginning more and more to believe that Mario will indeed beat her, en route to a fourth showdown with Crono... I might just even vote for Mario in Mario vs. Samus.... Against my bracket. It's going to be a great match.
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From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:10:05 PM | Message Detail
and I haven't even bothered with Liquid, because no matter what you do he looks like ****. But it should be ver obvious by now that Liquid was never that high to begin with. Hell, Frog is lower than what some may have believed prior. The only one who I could see holding that general position is Master Chief thanks to Halo 2.

The only thing we have to suggest Frog may be weaker than the stats project is his match against Riku, who is a new character. We'll find out after Samus/Frog where he stands. It's just that no one ever mentions Liquid when trying to adjust Sephiroth.

Transcience, myself, and I think you. There's someone else with a D in their name that is in this topic and I always get you two confused. I think his name is Delirium Trigger.

No, it's me. I think Lloyd will get 35% on Zero.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 13/15 points
Current Match Prediction: Ryu (Street Fighter) vs. Rikku
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:12:54 PM | Message Detail
By the way, I'm sure this has been discussed, but where is Rikku in the stats relative to Tidus?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 13/15 points
Current Match Prediction: Ryu (Street Fighter) vs. Rikku
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:14:38 PM | Message Detail
Based on a constant Ryu, Rikku is currently at 29% on Link, above Kirby.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: creativename | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:15:43 PM | Message Detail
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:41:58 PM | Message Detail | #029
I love the people who are assuming that the villain contest was useless, simply because giving it credit makes some of the picks in their brackets impossible. You know, because voters are automatically going to vote differently in a different character contest that shows up two months later. Give me a break.

Ganon > Auron, and Bowser > Ryu.



Even if you accept Ganon's Spring Contest strength, Auron=Ganon is still not out of the question. There's plenty of reason to believe Auron is quite strong.

The one thing though is that people seem to be saying that Yuna/Rikku doing well bodes well for Auron, and in a sense in does; but Auron wasn't in X-2 (at least, I don't think he was, I never played the game), so that shouldn't really help him like it did them.



From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:56:31 PM | Message Detail | #040
"Let's drop Sephroth 4% for no reason. Now the Spring Contest makes sense."

"But what about Liquid Snake? Wouldn't that put him unreasonably low?"

"We'll just ignore him altogether."



Actually the least squares regression that pegs Sephiroth at 43% includes Liquid Snake.

Dropping him out doesn't change things too much. Which really surprised me, as I didn't expect that kind of stability.

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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:16:35 PM | Message Detail
Rikku is looking ridiculously high right now. Obviously she has a good deal of strength, but I have a hard time believing that she's nearly at 30% on link. Ryu has to have made some sort of drop.
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From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:17:09 PM | Message Detail
I have said from the very beginning that Kratos would rank above Lloyd. I'm sticking to that until I have evidence that he will not. You do NOT, under any circumstances, HAVE to be the main character in order to have some strength. I think Kratos is very likely to rank ahead of him due to how much the fanbase dislikes Lloyd and how much they like Kratos.

And with a game like Tales of Symphonia, the fanbase WILL determine how well the character does. There probably will be no casual voting for a ToS character against a fairly well known character such as Diablo. If Lloyd DOES end up being higher than Kratos, it means that either he got some casual votes for people not knowing Wesker as well, or he actually IS more popular than Kratos.

I actually just beat the game. I'm not that big of a Kratos fan myself.

Sheena > Presea > Lloyd > Zelos > Kratos > Raine >> Regal > Colette > Genis

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From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:17:17 PM | Message Detail
but Auron wasn't in X-2 (at least, I don't think he was, I never played the game)

Actually, he is. He's in a sphere with Gippal (which I've personally never seen, as it's pretty difficult to acquire), and you can hear his voice in the last battles of the game.

So yeah, pretty negligible.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:18:08 PM | Message Detail
Kratos was my favorite character in ToS.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 13/15 points
Current Match Prediction: Ryu (Street Fighter) vs. Rikku
From: red sox 777 | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:21:18 PM | Message Detail
The only thing we have to suggest Frog may be weaker than the stats project is his match against Riku, who is a new character. We'll find out after Samus/Frog where he stands. It's just that no one ever mentions Liquid when trying to adjust Sephiroth

Do you believe that Liquid Snake would get over 48% on Solid Snake before SFF?
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Summer Contest 2005 --- Score: 14/15 --- Rank: T-1183
From: creativename | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:23:11 PM | Message Detail
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/3/2005 6:16:35 PM | Message Detail | #109
Rikku is looking ridiculously high right now. Obviously she has a good deal of strength, but I have a hard time believing that she's nearly at 30% on link. Ryu has to have made some sort of drop.


Perhaps she isn't quite that high, but don't forget that Rikku is a gaming icon now, and many people have heard of her (or would at least recognize seeing her before).

And didn't she win some polling thing recently with G4tv? So she's shown strength in polling situations before.
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From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:23:42 PM | Message Detail
Do you believe that Liquid Snake would get over 48% on Solid Snake before SFF?

It's a possibility, though not very likely if you think the Villains Contest is credible, but Liquid would get SFF'd into oblivion like Raiden so I'm not sure.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 13/15 points
Current Match Prediction: Ryu (Street Fighter) vs. Rikku
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:24:35 PM | Message Detail
No. But at the same time, I don't think Liquid Snake would be beaten by people like Bomberman, Kefka, Ness, Jak, Viewtiful Joe, etc.
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So I said "Supercollide her? I just met her!"
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:25:35 PM | Message Detail
She won the G4 Video Game Vixen Contest, as voted by the fans. So yeah, she's pretty popular.

Still, I think this might give more credibility to the idea of Tidus being underrated in the 2004 stats. Ryu might have dropped, but I don't think it'd be anything drastic.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:27:11 PM | Message Detail
Rikku>Kirby assuming a stagnant Ryu is all I need to GUARANTEE Tidus>Kirby in three weeks.

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SC2k5 - 16/16 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:29:33 PM | Message Detail
Perhaps she isn't quite that high, but don't forget that Rikku is a gaming icon now

How is she more knowen then any other FFX character? I'm not sure myself, but I'm sure you have some reason for calling her a gaming icon.

And didn't she win some polling thing recently with G4tv? So she's shown strength in polling situations before.

I don't think a g4 poll would really affect this, but I see where you're coming from. I guess being around Aurons strength makes it possible, but I was under the impression (and keep in mind I've never played FFX) that Rikku was a third rate character with almost no importance in the story.

I just don't see her being quite this strong, which would indicate a Ryu drop. I guess there always is the chance that she's at Auron's level. I guess we'll need to wait until round 2 to see for sure.
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From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:31:13 PM | Message Detail
And with a game like Tales of Symphonia, the fanbase WILL determine how well the character does. There probably will be no casual voting for a ToS character against a fairly well known character such as Diablo.

Are you sure of this? ToS is looking to be very cult and since Mithos approximately = Lloyd, it would appear that the ToS fans would vote for anything ToS over anything else. There really isn't any other way to deal with Mithos being almost equal to Lloyd unless you want to just ignore the villain contest results, which isn't a very popular thing to do here.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:31:50 PM | Message Detail
She won the G4 Video Game Vixen Contest, as voted by the fans. So yeah, she's pretty popular.

I wasn't aware of that. For some reason I think it would be hilarious if Auron, Yuna, and Rikku all ended up ahead of Tidus in the xstats.
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From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:34:19 PM | Message Detail
I hope CATS gets his face pic. That would be amazing. The pic would make sure CATS gets over 20% and seeing as how the first round is close-ups, then he'll very likely get it.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 13/15 points
Current Match Prediction: Ryu (Street Fighter) vs. Rikku
From: transience | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:34:57 PM | Message Detail
if you had to rate the importance to the story of the main cast:

Yuna >= Tidus > Auron > Rikku > Wakka/Lulu >>> Kimahri.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:35:58 PM | Message Detail
You can't put Yuna above Tidus in storyline importance. Equal, yes, but not above. Yes, it is Yuna's pilgrimage, but it is his story.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:36:05 PM | Message Detail
I guess there always is the chance that she's at Auron's level

Auron's level? Ryu would struggle to be on Auron's level and he's the one winning!
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So I said "Supercollide her? I just met her!"
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:37:08 PM | Message Detail
You people are forgetting the Sephiroth is the one that beat Wesker, not Kefka.

Heh, inside joke.
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So I said "Supercollide her? I just met her!"
From: transience | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:37:47 PM | Message Detail
FF10 doesn't happen without Yuna. it could happen without Tidus.

that said, you're right, and it's Tidus's story. I'd put them at equal.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.
From: Phediuk | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:38:04 PM | Message Detail
Damn, good vote totals in this match.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:38:48 PM | Message Detail
Auron's level? Ryu would struggle to be on Auron's level and he's the one winning!

Based off of what? I'm sure you have a legitimate reason for thinking this, but I don't see anything indicating that Auron is ahead of ryu.
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From: BeTheMan | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:40:24 PM | Message Detail
Based off of what? I'm sure you have a legitimate reason for thinking this, but I don't see anything indicating that Auron is ahead of ryu.

If any attempt had been made to adjust Auron's performances for SFF in '03 or '04, he would very likely be ahead of Ryu.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:40:29 PM | Message Detail
Extrapolated Auron based on both Scorpion and Tails to avoid SFF suffered against Seph and Cloud both put Auron ahead of Ryu.
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So I said "Supercollide her? I just met her!"
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:40:34 PM | Message Detail
FF10 doesn't happen without Yuna. it could happen without Tidus.

No, it couldn't. Tidus has a role in that story that only he could fulfill.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:42:35 PM | Message Detail
No, it couldn't. Tidus has a role in that story that only he could fulfill.

Its true.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:43:40 PM | Message Detail
Extrapolated Auron based on both Scorpion and Tails to avoid SFF suffered against Seph and Cloud both put Auron ahead of Ryu.

Alright. I'm not sure there was much if any SFF in auron vs. cloud or sephiroth, but it's more then just a bit possible when I think about it.
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From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:44:10 PM | Message Detail
Hmm, after this, I really don't think Bowser vs. Ryu will even be close.

We'll see, though. I'll also be interested to see how Bowser's performance against him compares to Sonic's. It's a shame that there isn't anyone strong enough to maybe compete with Sonic/MM in that part of the bracket... the only one with even a 1% chance is Tifa.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:44:37 PM | Message Detail
I seriously think FFX would have been better with Kimahri as an NPC. A larger cast is good, if the whole cast is good, but you shouldn't add extra if you're not going to develop them well. Kimahri just makes the cast unblanced. Two main lovers, spunky girl, badass, uh...Lulu and Wakka...but Kimahri fits in nowhere. Just my opinion.
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From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:45:31 PM | Message Detail
I think it's a safe bet. If only one of them made a difference, it would be ok. But the fact that if you take into account a possible drop for Scoprion in 2004, both results are rather consistent, and also offer a rather big boost. Putting him almost on the same level as Ganondorf. Which is why that match was debated.
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So I said "Supercollide her? I just met her!"
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:46:27 PM | Message Detail
Are you sure of this? ToS is looking to be very cult and since Mithos approximately = Lloyd, it would appear that the ToS fans would vote for anything ToS over anything else. There really isn't any other way to deal with Mithos being almost equal to Lloyd unless you want to just ignore the villain contest results, which isn't a very popular thing to do here.

I actually said the same thing a while ago. It's not that farfetched for Mithos and Lloyd to be similar in strength. ToS fans could just vote for both. I wouldn't go as far as saying the ToS fanbase would vote their characters over ANYONE else, but against people like Kefka or Wesker... why wouldn't they?
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From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:48:03 PM | Message Detail
ToS fans could just vote for both.

Why? There is NO other fanbase that votes in the contest that operates like that. None. Why should ToS fans be that way?
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:49:55 PM | Message Detail
FFX SPOILERS

No, it couldn't. Tidus has a role in that story that only he could fulfill.

True. What were you thinking of, though? My read on Tidus's importance was always "If not for him, the party would not have stood up to and refused Yunalesca's way to defeat Sin".
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Kaxon | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:50:44 PM | Message Detail
The only thing we have to suggest Frog may be weaker than the stats project is his match against Riku, who is a new character.

That's not true actually. There's also MC's big jump from 2k3 to 2k4 before Halo 2 was released.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Current Score: 14/15 | Today: Ryu over Rikku
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:54:07 PM | Message Detail
***FFX SPOILERS***



I was thinking about Tidus's bond with Jecht, giving them an advantage over Sin that they wouldn't have otherwise. That's part of the reason they were able to actually break open the shell and get inside because Jecht wanted Tidus to end it himself, and he knew of his father's personal fondness for the Hymn of the Fayth, rendering him docile.



***END SPOILERS***
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:54:36 PM | Message Detail
Why? There is NO other fanbase that votes in the contest that operates like that. None. Why should ToS fans be that way?

It's hard to accept, yeah. But there aren't exactly a whole lot of other possibilities for why the main character of the game equals the villain who doesn't even have much of a role until the last third or so of the game. And it's not often that multiple cult characters from the same game are able to make it into contests. Maybe there are other cases where this could occur but we haven't seen them.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:55:17 PM | Message Detail
I can't wait til Kerrigan vs. Vincent, I'm sick of hearing baout FFX characters and want to hear baout some FFVII characters now.
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From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:55:18 PM | Message Detail
Master Chief I am going to be paying attention to tomorrow to see if he can blow-out CATS with 80%+ of the vote (let's just drop the "CATS WILL WIN!1!" jokes for now).

Halo 2 gave MC a massive boost last year, I have no doubts whatsoever in my mind. We will see now if the release of the game and it's massive fanbase on XBox Live will push him furthur. I think it will.

Question: Does anyone think MC has a chance of getting near 40% on Crono? Assuming he beats DK.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:55:25 PM | Message Detail
And it's not often that multiple cult characters from the same game are able to make it into contests. Maybe there are other cases where this could occur but we haven't seen them.

Vyse and Ramirez. Vyse is clearly ahead of him.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: transience | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:55:56 PM | Message Detail
here's the thing about Tidus and Yuna: without Tidus, the pilgramage happens, but the result is different. without Yuna, there is no pilgramage, period. of course Tidus is vital to the story, but there is no story without Yuna.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:56:12 PM | Message Detail
That's not true actually. There's also MC's big jump from 2k3 to 2k4 before Halo 2 was released.

Unadjusted MC is only up about 2%, which is fairly reasonable. Even if you're against the possibility that link vs. megaman needed no adjustment you could always say Frog overperformed on snake. Possibly enough to make MC's raise about 3-4% weaker then it looks on adjusted MC. A 2-3% increase isn't anything huge, and the anti-xbox sentiment starting to go away on gamefaqs could partially contribute to it.
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From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:57:09 PM | Message Detail
Imagine if Dona or Issaru was the summoner in your party? >> <<
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From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:57:25 PM | Message Detail
Vyse and Ramirez. Vyse is clearly ahead of him.

And Albedo and KOS-MOS. That's about it.
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I need to put something here.
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