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Summer 2005 Contest
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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 180
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:24:13 AM | Message Detail
Seek an opponent who is your equal. Only then will you improve.



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawa tsoP
From: Zethis and SeRa | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:24:36 AM | Message Detail
Haw haw Rikku fans.
---
Call me WVI.
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:25:06 AM | Message Detail
You have a lovely bounce on your body!
From: Blackapino1984 | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:29:15 AM | Message Detail
Tag
---
Rockman's Road to Victory: Round 1: Conker
Don't forget to vote for: Ryu(SF)
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:30:19 AM | Message Detail
Today is a moral victory if ever there was one.
---
I need to put something here.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:33:30 AM | Message Detail
The fight is everything.

I will never stop fighting! I must find true strength!
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/3/2005 4:49:34 AM | Message Detail
From: Zethis and SeRa | Posted: 8/3/2005 2:24:36 AM | Message Detail
Haw haw Rikku fans.


Ryu 56.13% 9446
Rikku 43.87% 7384
TOTAL VOTES 16830

Pwned by the Al Bhed hottie.

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 15/15 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/3/2005 4:51:01 AM | Message Detail
Actually, I just noticed that Rikku was at 41% when you posted your message... what the hell did you think Rikku fans thought she was going to do? Win!?! <_<

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 15/15 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: jonthomson | Posted: 8/3/2005 4:52:00 AM | Message Detail
Phil Taylor/10
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Prometheus321 | Posted: 8/3/2005 7:07:30 AM | Message Detail
Go Rikku!!
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VOTE: BOWSER in the Summer Contest
From: Sarutobi | Posted: 8/3/2005 7:15:05 AM | Message Detail
to be honest, i'm surprised to see ryu with such a small lead. i had him winning the division, but if he's this close against rikku, i don't want to know against bowser...


---
Wow, making an ordinary character is overdone. Making an unordinary character is also overdone. Well, looks like I better stop playing D&D.-ignignoc
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/3/2005 7:18:08 AM | Message Detail
Wouldn't it be funny if Ryu still won his divison?
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/3/2005 7:24:44 AM | Message Detail
Wouldn't it be funny if this division shows Rikku>Tidus?

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 16/16 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: KingBartz | Posted: 8/3/2005 7:25:40 AM | Message Detail
^^ AH HELL NAW
---
My Summer Contest Score: 14/15 - Todays pick: Ryu
KingBartz: Been a full Virgin since '87
From: voltch | Posted: 8/3/2005 7:26:55 AM | Message Detail
how long will cats lead over Mc? my bet is little more than five minutes
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: metoolfan | Posted: 8/3/2005 7:30:32 AM | Message Detail
my bet is little over 5 seconds
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PH33R THE HANDGESTURE! http://handgesture.ytmnd.com/
From: kungfu chicken | Posted: 8/3/2005 7:34:09 AM | Message Detail
untill the first 5 minuet update.
---
now playing: final fantasy 7, skies of arcadia, donkey kong country
Now reading: the bible, the summoning
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:10:03 PM | Message Detail
I'd give CATS four minutes.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:14:24 PM | Message Detail
At the 12:10 mark, this match has 60,263 votes.

Vivi/Zelda - 59,840
Tidus/KoAC - 58,251

Wow, Ryu and Rikku are pullin' in the votes today.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:21:03 PM | Message Detail
Magus > Samus > Cloud, according to Board 8.

http://www.freewebs.com/8board/
---
That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:21:44 PM | Message Detail
Cloud > Link

It is a sign.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:27:28 PM | Message Detail
Magus > Squall

That's a sign, too.
---
That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: Shoenin_Kakashi | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:28:15 PM | Message Detail
XD
---
Kakashi The Shoeman: Donald Rumsfeld of the UltimaterializerX Board 8 Regime, and holder of the only Zero Bracket in a Gamfaqs Contest
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:28:55 PM | Message Detail
Ryu? Mo' like, owned.
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:29:30 PM | Message Detail
Wait...Samus > Sephiroth, too!
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:31:07 PM | Message Detail
Bah, board 8 hates anything/anyone popular anyway...

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Gooper Blooper | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:31:15 PM | Message Detail
Wouldn't it be funny if this division shows Rikku>Tidus?

Heh. *thinks*

Bowser > Kirby > Ryu > Rikku > Tidus > Chun Li > Cecil

Now THAT would be odd. Except for Cecil being last.

From the last topic:

CATS will decimate Master Chief, Donkey Kong, Crono, Magus, Mega Man, Samus, Sephiroth, and will finally beat Cloud in the long-awaited rematch.

XD
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Chun-Li > Bowser book it - lol_internet
Vote for Kirby in SC2K5!
From: voltch | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:36:57 PM | Message Detail
wait a minute CATS also needs a rematch againsy link
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:41:58 PM | Message Detail
I love the people who are assuming that the villain contest was useless, simply because giving it credit makes some of the picks in their brackets impossible. You know, because voters are automatically going to vote differently in a different character contest that shows up two months later. Give me a break.

Ganon > Auron, and Bowser > Ryu.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:46:33 PM | Message Detail
"Bowser is in this contest, but Mario is not! I must take all of the support I would have given to Mario and make sure it goes to Bowser instead!

PS: I would not have voted for Bowser anyway, and pay close attention to the bracket in the event of cases like this."

-Stats topic's interpretation of the prototypical Spring 2005 voter

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:46:58 PM | Message Detail
Regardless of how you look at it, those matches are still winnable. They're not THAT far ahead of their opponents.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:47:59 PM | Message Detail
Or how about:

"Man, Sephiroth is gonna win anyway, but I like Ganondorf and/or Bowser, too, so I'll vote for them."
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:48:59 PM | Message Detail
That entire mentality is negligible and only came from voters on this board.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:49:56 PM | Message Detail
If that were the case, all popular characters would be getting 40% on Link/Cloud.

Or something.
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:50:22 PM | Message Detail
That entire mentality is negligible and only came from voters on this board.

And you can say that with 100% confidence because you apparently understand the voters better than we do.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:53:37 PM | Message Detail
I think Auron > Ganon is looking pretty good, actually. First, Yuna does better then expected (FFX-2 or not), and now Rikku does better then expected too. Auron definitely has a shot at doing that too.

FFX continues to re-enforce itself as what is probably the third strongest RPG on this site. I'm in awe about how that game can still be right near the top of the Top 10 PS2 FAQs and Message Boards and stay so close to the top of the GameFAQs top 50.

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I need to put something here.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:55:04 PM | Message Detail
Yes, Final Fantasy X is a force to be reckoned with, for sure. Higher vote totals time and time again seem to benefit the newer Square characters as well.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: I_Dont_Love_You | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:55:21 PM | Message Detail
It's obvious no one understands the voters, else we'd have a perfect bracket by now.
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The NEW Board 8's Best Female Summer Contest Guru
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:55:23 PM | Message Detail
"Bowser is in this contest, but Mario is not! I must take all of the support I would have given to Mario and make sure it goes to Bowser instead!

PS: I would not have voted for Bowser anyway, and pay close attention to the bracket in the event of cases like this."

-Stats topic's interpretation of the prototypical Spring 2005 voter


Back in 2k2, I didn't know who Crono is, but I voted for him anyway since he's the last non-Nintendo guy around.

And I didn't discover board 8 yet at the time.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:56:31 PM | Message Detail
"Let's drop Sephroth 4% for no reason. Now the Spring Contest makes sense."

"But what about Liquid Snake? Wouldn't that put him unreasonably low?"

"We'll just ignore him altogether."

-Stats topic trying to make sense out of the Spring Contest stats
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 13/15 points
Current Match Prediction: Ryu (Street Fighter) vs. Rikku
From: MasterMoltar | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:56:54 PM | Message Detail
Aww, looks like the day vote is pretty much split (I think Ryu is slowly climbing)

Ganon > Auron, and Bowser > Ryu.

Yep
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It's MOOOOOOOLLLTTTAAAARRRR!!!!!!!!!!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:57:28 PM | Message Detail
I've stopped trying to make sense out of the Spring Contest. It's just a different ballgame altogether for me now.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 8/3/2005 1:00:06 PM | Message Detail
Auron Vs. Bowser.

Who would YOU take?

I'd go with Bowser, myself. Ganon is looking to beat Auron comfortably enough, and Bowser is about a % away from Ganon. Could be close, but Bowser would take it.
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 8/3/2005 1:01:52 PM | Message Detail
Auron Vs. Bowser.

Who would YOU take?


Auron

Auron > Ganon and Ganon > Bowser

Simple transitivity
---
I need to put something here.
From: metoolfan | Posted: 8/3/2005 1:04:14 PM | Message Detail
I thought the spring contest had some credibility, but the Wesker/Lloyd match is certainly a weird one. Let's see how lloyd does in Round 2.
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PH33R THE HANDGESTURE! http://handgesture.ytmnd.com/
From: MasterMoltar | Posted: 8/3/2005 1:13:07 PM | Message Detail
Using an Adjusted Zero, a doubling puts Lloyd right below Kefka. That's where I would have put Kratos...hmmm.

Lloyd needs to get at least 28.28% to stay above the VFL. I think he can manage that.

Now if Zero's Un-Adjusted value is correct, a doubling puts him under Nukem...and he needs at least 31.42% to stay above the VFL. Uh oh...

Lloyd better hope Ryu pulled a HayaBOOSTa, because seeing Lloyd under the VFL would be quite a shock.
---
It's MOOOOOOOLLLTTTAAAARRRR!!!!!!!!!!
From: igota75 | Posted: 8/3/2005 1:14:17 PM | Message Detail
I've been experimenting with working the X-stats, so anything in this post that is wrong based on mathematical error please disregard and LMK so I can correct my mistakes. I'd love to know how to do this officially rather than just guessing and hoping I'm right :-).

Anyhoo, I've assumed that Rikku will end this match at 45% for the purposes of this research, and have come up with some very interesting results.

If Link '03 is 50%, then Ryu '04 is 32% ('04 SFF adjusted stats @ sc2k5.com).
Doubling those values gives Ryu a value of 64, which is what I used to start from.

Rikku = 45% on Ryu. I used the same doubling to get 90%, which gives a 10% difference between Ryu and Rikku, yes?

Pushing forward, 10% of 64 is 6.4, which subtracted from 64 gives 57.6. Halving this value should give Rikku '05's value against '03 Link, which I've concluded as 28.8%.

This is the point for all you who are oh-so-more experienced mathematically than I to step in and give me the what-for ;-).

Anyway, comparing to the rest of the field in the '04 adjusted stats, this puts Rikku just below Sora (giving him a good run for his money at that) and Auron, and ironically putting her just above Kirby, the 1-seed in this division; and Tidus, the main character from one of her games. Of course, this means she's far higher than 4/5-seeds like Ness and DK, and above such 1/2 seeds as Luigi and Dante.

Rikku, in my eyes has proved she's not fodder of any kind and definitely warrants a 4 or 5 seed in next year's contest (granted that the seeds and divisions are set up in groups of 8 as this year is). I'd love to see her in a 3/6 match vs. Sora, or a 4/5 vs. Vivi. Of course, I'd wouldn't be terribly surprised if she winds up in the top half of her division in this contest, depending on the Kirby/Tidus match (and granting Ryu keeps it close with Bowser).

Any thoughts?
From: 6thDeus | Posted: 8/3/2005 1:22:39 PM | Message Detail
Lloyd better hope Ryu pulled a HayaBOOSTa, because seeing Lloyd under the VFL would be quite a shock.

No it wouldn't. I've said it once, and I'll say it again.

Vyse>Lloyd

---
Knights of the Old Republic> Your favorite Square RPG
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/3/2005 1:22:42 PM | Message Detail
You result is correct, but you did too much work to get it. Simply multiple Ryu's value agaisnt Link (which you've set at 32) by Rikku's value against Ryu (which you've put at 45) then divide by 50. 32x45/50=28.8
---
"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/3/2005 1:31:12 PM | Message Detail
I want Lloyd to do as well as possible. I hate Lloyd, but Wesker is tied directly too him <3.
---
Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
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