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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 179
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:45:44 AM | Message Detail
You dont think the normal contest is full of franchise voting. You think the average voter went "Well since Link isnt in this contest, Im going to vote for Gannondorf instead"? For most people they vote match by match. And even if they did do that, Link isnt in this contest either.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:46:13 AM | Message Detail
But Bison's strength was based on SPRING CONTEST GANONDORF (who was also way too high)! Meaning that every last person in the Spring Contest was too high due to the way extrapolation works.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:47:18 AM | Message Detail
Even Liquid Snake?
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:47:35 AM | Message Detail
I choose D, as well.
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:47:44 AM | Message Detail
I would say there was more franchise voting than we would normally expect, yes. It's a different premise.

The games contest likely featured more franchise voting than a normal character contest would as well.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:48:06 AM | Message Detail
Fine live in ignorance. Most people who vote in this contest have no idea what a bracket is.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:48:56 AM | Message Detail
I paid very little attention to Sp2k5 when I filled out my bracket, and I'm glad I did that.

Ganon and Bowser's performances this round indicate that their strength hasn't changed much.

With that said, Rikku is doing far better than what I expected, I thought she'd barely break 40%, but she cleared that mark from the get go.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:50:25 AM | Message Detail
How did Bowser overperforming most people's ex.... you know what I give up.

Im not saying the villian contest can be put over 100% to this contest and Dorf/Bowser could be a bit overranked. But I dont see why Gannondorf and Bowser get franchise voting when Sephiroth and Liquid Snake cant.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:50:26 AM | Message Detail
Also keep in mind about Bison that he's behind Diablo, who didn't get linkage against Ganondorf. However much you think that affected the Ruin Division, that's your call, but it's worth considering that Bison could actually be HIGHER in the stats.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:50:51 AM | Message Detail
Okay, fine, Liquid Snake and his little area was low, because he bombed against Sephiroth for some reason (even though I don't think that was all fluke).

Yet, the stats are internally consistent, meaning that even if Bowser's X-Stat rating is too high, Bison's is also proportionally too high. Bison can still be predicted against Bowser using those stats no problem. Just don't use em to predict against anyone not in the contest, or Sephiroth.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:51:52 AM | Message Detail
You are arguing that the X-Stats are inheirtly flawed then. Which is a valid argument. Of course I could always argue that Ryu will be SFFd by Bowser if Mega Man was by Link.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:52:26 AM | Message Detail
I wouldn't think the Villain Contest had any more franchise voting than any other contest...I can believe the Game Contest having alot though.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:52:46 AM | Message Detail
Ganon is not ranked to high at all. It kills me that people are still trying to proclaim that he isn't near his 2003 ranking. It's absolutely absurd. Some of you need to stop taking the Spring Contest into account based on a static Sephiroth. I believe everyone can agree those stats are ridiculous.

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Takes nothing to realize your Ken.
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/480/kensa34mr.gif
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:53:55 AM | Message Detail
Yes, the Spring Contest stats are ridiculous. I can agree on that much.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:54:28 AM | Message Detail
Franchise voting was not any bigger in the Villain Contest than it is in any Summer Contest. There's simply no logic at all to be found in something like that. But the game contest most certainly would be a better argument for having a good amount of franchise voting. That actually makes some sense.

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Takes nothing to realize your Ken.
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/480/kensa34mr.gif
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:54:57 AM | Message Detail
And yeah, I do think Bison is slightly higher than Chun Li. (even though I claimed the opposite yesterday in spread betting... why did I take that spread?) The thing is, everybody's got a favorite character, but it doesn't matter who you pick, when you finish the story mode it's always gonna be Bison at the end (bar some Akuma and Evil Ryu exceptions). If you don't like Chun Li much, her involvement in the game is forgettable. You can't say that about Bison, Ryu, or even Ken to a lesser extent.

Sounds dumb, but I think being the main villain does help Bison a bit, even though it's not an RPG or anything.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: voltch | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:55:17 AM | Message Detail
maybe franchise voting seems bigger in the villain contest because vote totals were lower?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:55:37 AM | Message Detail
Yes, the Spring Contest stats are ridiculous. I can agree on that much.

They most certainly are based on a static Sephiroth. But if you drop him, they make complete sense, with some exceptions. Of course, we have these "exceptions" in every contest; that's nothing new.

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Takes nothing to realize your Ken.
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/480/kensa34mr.gif
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:56:54 AM | Message Detail
Lets leave the Spring Contest stats out of it. Since 2003, Link has increased a lot, Zelda has apparently also increased a lot. Rikku who always plays second fiddle to Yuna, but has the more likeable character factor is apparently quite a bit stronger than Yuna. It is completely ridiculous to believe that Dorf increased with the other two and Yuna is closer in strength to Rikku?
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:57:36 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:57:38 AM | Message Detail
maybe franchise voting seems bigger in the villain contest because vote totals were lower?

It doesn't make any sense for franching voting to be bigger in the Villain Contest than it would in any other Summer Contest. I have no idea why we're even bringing this back up.

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Takes nothing to realize your Ken.
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/480/kensa34mr.gif
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:57:50 AM | Message Detail
I think it's ridiculous to assume Ganondorf got a delayed boost since he showed NO SIGNS OF BEING STRONGER IN 2004 WHATSOEVER. You absolutely could not sell that idea to me.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Lopen | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:58:07 AM | Message Detail
Yes, the Spring Contest is inherently flawed. But internally consistent. Ganondorf and Bowser both did proportionally better than they should have against Sephiroth. I think it was probably anti-champion votes... I think it'd be more significant in a contest where 49/50 on the leaderboard have Sephiroth.

So we should either bring Sephiroth down to a constant Ganondorf/Bowser, and then they are consistent with the stats we have now.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/3/2005 11:58:19 AM | Message Detail
Guys, keep this in mind, 2k3 Ken would get 35.05% on 2k3 Bowser.
Assuming Chun-Li is slightly weaker than Ken, her 34.10% is completely within the 2k3 X-stats if Bowser stayed relatively constant from 2k3.

About franchise voting, I think it only affects the last 3 matches or so, when people start realizing that their favorite chars from their favorite franchise are missing.
This will greatly benefit Bowser since Nintendo vs. Square will be much closer than Bowser vs. Sephy.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:00:38 PM | Message Detail
So, does Ryu still have a shot a winning his division? Because I picked Ryu over Bowser and Tidus and that's not looking so good now.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 13/15 points
Current Match Prediction: Ryu (Street Fighter) vs. Rikku
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:01:46 PM | Message Detail
Yes there is. If you believe Mega Man got SFFd by Link, you HAVE to believe Sephiroth SFFd Alucard as well.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:02:09 PM | Message Detail
So we should either bring Sephiroth down to a constant Ganondorf/Bowser, and then they are consistent with the stats we have now.

Dropping Sephiroth down to Samus's level makes Ganon's increase negligible, Bowser increases about 4% to right underneath Ganon, and nothing else is as crazy anymore. There should be NO ONE believing that Ganon and Bowser were up there with the "elite" characters. I can understand completely where you're coming from if you're basing those stats on a static Sephiroth. But no one in their right mind should have even began to consider a static Sephiroth after those performances.

Hell, it isn't as though he's not capable of decreasing either. He did so in 2004 and I would expect him to do it again in 2005, much like he showed previously.

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Takes nothing to realize your Ken.
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/480/kensa34mr.gif
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:05:35 PM | Message Detail
Hell, it isn't as though he's not capable of decreasing either. He did so in 2004 and I would expect him to do it again in 2005, much like he showed previously.

I agreed that Sephy most likely dropped a lot.

To be honest, I'm quite worried about Sephy > Samus already.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: voltch | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:06:08 PM | Message Detail
what do people think will be the winning score in this contest?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:07:00 PM | Message Detail
If the vote totals were similar to the villain contest I would think so. But the fact that Cloud and Seph performed the best in the year with the highest totals has me a little... yeah.
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So I said "Supercollide her? I just met her!"
From: Tatsumaki Senpuu | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:07:26 PM | Message Detail
The only reason I'm pretty confident about Sephiroth over the bracket champion is because Advent Children will be there to help him out some.

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Takes nothing to realize your Ken.
http://img159.imageshack.us/img159/480/kensa34mr.gif
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:07:57 PM | Message Detail
I could care less about whether Sephiroth was static or not. Bowser showed that he's right near Ganondorf through their common matchups with Sephiroth. And we have more of a grasp of Ganon's strength (through Alucard, 2k3, Spring Kefka) than we do for Bowser (Cloud 2k3... that's it. Yoshi is unreliable as well...)

You could take all that without using Ganon and Bowser's rankings through Sephiroth. Although seeing how Sephiroth still beat Liquid by so much... I doubt it's all due to Sephiroth dropping. As Liquid showed, Sephiroth didn't drop against just anybody. If he did, there had to have been a load of support for Bowser and Ganon to overperform on him. I'd put that more on THEIR respective fanbases than I would on Sephiroth.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:08:56 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, FF:AC I think is gonna cancel out a large part of the small boost I expect Samus to get, though I still think Samus is gonna give Sephiroth a hell of a fight.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:09:16 PM | Message Detail
Dropping Sephiroth down to Samus's level makes Ganon's increase negligible

So you're giving Sephiroth a 4% drop for no reason? That doesn't make any sense to me.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 13/15 points
Current Match Prediction: Ryu (Street Fighter) vs. Rikku
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:12:30 PM | Message Detail
I would like to see stats that based about 2% on Sephiroth dropping and 2% on Ganon gaining, myself. That'd be interesting, and I could decide things better for myself from there.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:13:44 PM | Message Detail
Not only that, but evidence racks up that Cloud SFFed him last year.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 014/015 - Matches: 14/15 - Rank: 01183/33793 - Today: Ryu - Tomorrow: Master Chief
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:14:02 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, FF:AC I think is gonna cancel out a large part of the small boost I expect Samus to get, though I still think Samus is gonna give Sephiroth a hell of a fight.

She definitely will, I think their match could potentially be as close as Cloud vs. Link.

So you're giving Sephiroth a 4% drop for no reason? That doesn't make any sense to me.

*cough* Cloud vs. Sephy 2k4 *cough*

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:17:07 PM | Message Detail
Not only that, but evidence racks up that Cloud SFFed him last year.

When he couldn't do it the year before?

Honestly, what changed between Cloud and Sephy within that year?

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: CompmanJX3 | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:19:39 PM | Message Detail
What changed? Bracket votes, mostly. Once people knew that Sephy couldn't win they didn't have him in their brackets and didn't bother voting for him.

It could be something else, though.
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Currently: 14/15 | Next: Ryu
HADOKEN!
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:19:43 PM | Message Detail
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/3/2005 3:17:07 PM | #488
Not only that, but evidence racks up that Cloud SFFed him last year.

When he couldn't do it the year before?

Honestly, what changed between Cloud and Sephy within that year?


Say it with me... BRACKET VOTING! I'm betting SFF rematches are far more subject to that kind of variation than anything else.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 014/015 - Matches: 14/15 - Rank: 01183/33793 - Today: Ryu - Tomorrow: Master Chief
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:19:43 PM | Message Detail
Honestly, what changed between Cloud and Sephy within that year?

Cloud didn't beat the contest-favorite two matches before Cloud/Seph.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:20:51 PM | Message Detail
I'm betting SFF rematches are far more subject to that kind of variation than anything else.

I've argued that, too; I think that's plenty possible, too.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:22:12 PM | Message Detail
We're going to see about that... there's a Crono/Magus rematch right down the road, and Crono could get a second round meeting with Kefka, too. Although if round 2 is the sprite round, I wouldn't bank too much on the latter. LAUGHING KEFKA SPRITE ANYONE?!?
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SC2K5 status - Points: 014/015 - Matches: 14/15 - Rank: 01183/33793 - Today: Ryu - Tomorrow: Master Chief
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:24:26 PM | Message Detail
Magus > Samus > Link!!!
Magus > Samus > Link!!!
Magus > Samus > Link!!!
Magus > Samus > Link!!!
Magus > Samus > Link!!!

Different poll, same result. Magus > whatever your favorite character is.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:26:38 PM | Message Detail
Al Bhed hottie>Haaaadoken

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 16/16 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:26:47 PM | Message Detail
Ahem! Cloud > Link
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:26:57 PM | Message Detail
Different poll, same result. Magus > whatever your favorite character is.

I'm so glad that Crono will punk him again.

What's so great about that guy anyway?

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:27:01 PM | Message Detail
CATS will decimate Master Chief, Donkey Kong, Crono, Magus, Mega Man, Samus, Sephiroth, and will finally beat Cloud in the long-awaited rematch.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:27:21 PM | Message Detail
And by the way, Rikku being > Yuna makes me sick. Rikku's character is nothing more than the prototypical dumb blonde, while Yuna is just amazing. In FFX, anyway.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 8/3/2005 12:27:27 PM | Message Detail
I'm waiting in my cold cell when the bell begins to chime
Reflecting on my past life and it doesn't have much time
Cos at 5 o'clock they take me to the Gallows Pole
The sands of time for me are running low

When the priest comes to read me the last rites
I take a look through the bars at the last sights
Of a world that has gone very wrong for me

Can it be there's some sort of error
Hard to stop the surmounting terror
Is it really the end not some crazy dream

Somebody please tell me that I'm dreaming
It's not so easy to stop from screaming
But words escape me when I try to speak
Tears they flow but why am I crying
After all I am not afraid of dying
Don't believe that there is never an end

As the guards march me out to the courtyard
Someone calls from a cell "God be with you"
If there's a God then why has he let me die?

As I walk all my life drifts before me
And though the end is near I'm not sorry
Catch my soul cos it's willing to fly away

Mark my words please believe my soul lives on
Please don't worry now that I have gone
I've gone beyond to see the truth

When you know that your time is close at hand
maybe then you'll begin to understand
Life down there is just a strange illusion.

Hallowed Be Thy Name
Hallowed Be Thy Name

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
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