if I was going by that logic, I'd take TV or CJ over every last person in the contest, sans maybe Mario or Link.

TV hasn't starred in a second game since his last appearance that sold millions more then VC.

I know you aren't arguing he won't have any increase, but he was way ahead of D.K. in last years stats as well. Even an increase of about 4% or so in the xstats would be enough to put him around his sff adjusted level from last year if megaman vs. link shouldn't have been adjusted in the first place. He wasn't at his 2k3 level last year.
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is it possible for him to win the first upate?

CATS takes an early lead against even link and and cloud. He then promptly falls rapidly the entire match until he's around 10%
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Anyways sales don't mean much of anything when trying to place a character we've never seen in before. With a character who's already been in the contest, we can expect a rather large scale increase when they star in a second game that outsells the first by millions.
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anyone think we should use a term to refer to the five hyped matches in a row of round two? i suggest we call them the five star streak. does fss in acronyms

heh, i called it "the Gauntlet" in the last topic. >_>

anywho, yay for Bowser!! i love Chun Li and all, but i predicted that Bowser would double Chun Li. she giving him the typical SFII night-time push still, but it won't be long until the Nintendo day-vote kicks in and pushes Bowser back towards 67%. go Bowser!!

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Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

I'm well-aware at this point, Dragoon.

I just happen to never go into these topics for whatever reason.

Where did you end up posting it anyways? Either way I'm sorry if I came off as a bit of a jackass, I thought you were one of those jpeople who complain about everything as if the world is all against them.
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You didn't come off as a jackass. You even sounded helpful. >_>

Anyway, yeah. I ended up posting it in the guru contest topic. I didn't happen to read the part where it said you're not in if you didn't post in the stats topic.

I suck. Yay.
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Call me WVI.

see, you're basing 2k4's stats off Frog. in that sense, Riku is 1% weaker than MC, and Frog is 2.5% weaker than Snake. I don't believe Frog at all, which is why I throw MC's place in the stats out. that's my problem with 2k4's stats; it's doesn't have anything to do with anti-xbox bias or any of that. Frog is a pain to try and project off of because he's unpredictable and thus unprojectable.

and when I said sales != character strength, I meant that x did not necessarily predict y. I didn't mean that they didn't matter, because obviously they do. but if you want to talk pure sales, I think DK wins.

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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

it's doesn't have anything to do with anti-xbox bias or any of that.

I wasn't saying that, I was saying gamefaqs on a whole is becoming less anti-xbox, which would lead to xbox characters increasing.
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WVI, we get people coming here posting like you on a regular basis - "oh, if I entered, I would be in first place." it's rather funny how that works. I believe you because you're a board 8 regular, but it's awfully easy to come off as a braggart when you walk into the stats topic saying that. either way, good luck on your bracket. last year Lucid Faia didn't enter and ended up in second place.

I understand what you're saying about frog, but I don't think he's that unreliable, but has just coincidently faced 4 opponents near his own strength. I guess we'll have to wait until frog vs. samus to find out whether or not we should trust anything frog touches, or give him the sephiroth treatment of being considered unreliable in every respect.
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if you believe that x-box characters rise for no apparent reason, then your proof would be Ryu, who outperformed his projection by 4% or so. take away some of that due to his ninja pic and you might have something there - although I don't believe it until MC puts up a fight against Crono. he's projected to break 40% based on 2k4, and I just can't see that happening.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

Based on adjusted megaman vs. link, or unadjusted megaman vs. link?

Either way I'm not saying the increase is huge, maybe 1% or maybe 2% at the most for xbox characters. By the way, better grab a flame shield before people who actually believe ryu gets most of his strength from his nes days sic you with illogical reasoning for calling him an xbox character ;).
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"WVI, we get people coming here posting like you on a regular basis - 'oh, if I entered, I would be in first place.' it's rather funny how that works. I believe you because you're a board 8 regular, but it's awfully easy to come off as a braggart when you walk into the stats topic saying that. either way, good luck on your bracket. last year Lucid Faia didn't enter and ended up in second place."

O_o

I said I'd be winning. Never said I'd win. >_> But no, I'm not a braggart, I know I'm likely not to win this. If I'm not mistaken, though, aren't only 5 people in first right now?
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Call me WVI.

My reasoning is mainly based on what I see on the message boards. The xbox board used to be full of anti-xbox trolls, and the ps2 and gamecube board almost universally hated xbox. That senitment has been dissapearing over the years. Also on those "do you own x console" polls xbox has fewer and fewer "no and I never well" responses each time it seems. That's unreliable though considering cecil ranked third in a "who is your favourite ff lead character" poll and was only beaten by squall and cloud.
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as for Frog, Riku is my proof. assuming 2k4 Frog = 2k5 Frog (and we have no reason not to believe this), Riku gets 47.02% on Snake. Riku gets the same 48.33% on MC. Riku gets 52% on Sora. I don't believe any of those numbers. throw in Liquid/Seph and I'm convinced.

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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

As the east coast is in morning the vote is finally swinging back over to bowser for increasing percentage. He's on a steady rise already. He should at least doubled chun-li before the day vote is done with.
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you would be correct, Wivvy. and I'm in like 4000000th place.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

as for Frog, Riku is my proof. assuming 2k4 Frog = 2k5 Frog (and we have no reason not to believe this), Riku gets 47.02% on Snake. Riku gets the same 48.33% on MC. Riku gets 52% on Sora. I don't believe any of those numbers. throw in Liquid/Seph and I'm convinced.

There are two things here I'd like to address. Since last year kingdom hearts: com has come out on gba, introducing KH to a brand new nintendo fanabase. Also you're using adjusted megaman vs. link for your prejections. Most people now think that it shouldn't have been adjusted or at least shouldn't have been adjusted by 4%. I'm waiting for frog vs. samus before making any judgements on frog not being reliable myself.
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that I am; but if I don't, MC is 4% weaker and even closer to DK. either the numbers look ridiculous or MC is 4% weaker than the SFF numbers show. it's your pick.

Ness did better than expected. Zelda did better than expected. Mario did better than expected. Ganon did worse than expected, but I'm chalking that more up to Yuna than to him; and besides, he did way better than expected in the spring contest. so did Bowser. if you want to look at it purely from a numbers perspective, it's hard to argue that MC is going to blow DK away.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

if you swap the flood division with the devil division we would have seven matches were a lot of arguments are generated from. would this have been too much for the board?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

So I woke up to Bowser under 64%, and he is no longer there. Yeah, this is going to get ugly quick.

Poor thunder thighs =(

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SC2k5 - 14/14 (empty slots in brackets suck)

but if I don't, MC is 4% weaker and even closer to DK. either the numbers look ridiculous or MC is 4% weaker than the SFF numbers show. it's your pick.

That number still puts him 2% ahead of where he was in 2k3. A very reasonable increase that helps out my xbox hate weakening making xbox characters stronger theory. I know he won't "blow away" DK for sure, but DK won't make it close IMO.
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heh, fair enough.

I'm off to bed, night y'all.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.

8:00 eastern time, and bowser is taking off like a rock >_>.

The morning isn't kind to chun-li and the day well be even wrose. Hell it isn't even morning on the west coast yet, and bowser is still taking off hugely.
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bah, she doing worse than what I projected for her...not a terrible performance, but still...

Typical Street Fighter, great in the early hours, then falls hard in the morning vote. Although if the voting patterns for SFers remain true for this match, she should finally stablize in the next couple hours.

I'm not so sure about that. Diablo managed to keep making slight increases in percentage on Bison until about 18 hours in when it finally stabalized. I think Chun-li is probably more comparable to Bison then she is to Ryu.
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...by stabilze (as far as SFers go), I generally mean the point where the drop isn't quite as rapid. She could drop throughout the day, but not like the current rate she is now.

Bowser 65.01% 12158
Chun Li 34.99% 6544
TOTAL VOTES 18702

Who cares: sorry, my mistake. I thought you were saying it would stabalize almost completely.
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And thus Bowser begins his reign of destruction.

And to add insult to injury, SMRPG > SF2.
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Vote Totals at the 6:15 mark

Ganondorf vs Yuna - 22,776
Vivi vs Zelda - 22,113
Tidus vs King of All Cosmos - 21,362
Boswer vs Chun-Li - 21,199

Looks like another 100k in the works...

2005-08-02 04:40:01 9728 5496 63.90% 36.10% 15224 4232


2005-08-02 06:35:00 15006 7771 65.88% 34.12% 22777 7235

Just under 2% in just under 2 hours...excellent.
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I noticed people were saying chun-li = "52% on bison under static bowser" and stuff like that. Are they talking about 2k4 bowser, which is really just 2k3 bowser brought down slightly under what I assume was the assumption that mario's decrease also meant a bowser decrease, or 2k5 spring contest bowser?
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Whoa. Bowser with 66%? ****. That pretty much means Bison is the second strongest SF character... assuming the villain contest results are valid. And when I assume, I make an ASS out of U and ME.

Joking aside, it's not even 10 and Bowser's close to a doubling. I'm amazed.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 013/014 - Matches: 13/14 - Rank: 01217/33793 - Today: Bowser - Tomorrow: Ryu

Mario's decrease? When did Mario ever decrease?
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SC2K5 status - Points: 013/014 - Matches: 13/14 - Rank: 01217/33793 - Today: Bowser - Tomorrow: Ryu

Bowser's got it back up to 66-34. The rate he is going this could approach 70-30 rather quickly.
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Mario's decrease? When did Mario ever decrease?

He decreased by about 1% in the xstats in 2k4. Not huge I know, but that's the only possible explanation I can think of for SFF adjusted 2k4 bowser to be considered weaker then 2k3 bowser.
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Bowser's got it back up to 66-34. The rate he is going this could approach 70-30 rather quickly.

If he got that high that would make bowser over snake look really good. Hell at this point it could be bowser vs. zelda for all we know.
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Going for a Doubling!!!

2005-08-02 06:55:00

Bowser 16216 66.17%
Chun-Li 8292 33.83%

Total Votes: 24508

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VOTE: BOWSER in the Summer Contest

The way bowser is looking now only reaching a doubling would actually be kind of dissapointing. Hes an absolute machine right now, ripping into Chun-Li, and showing that those of us with bowser over snake and ryu aren't completely insane.
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He decreased by 1%. Woo-****ing-hoo. It's called normal variation. I swear, some of you people wouldn't be happy unless every character ranked within the same hundredth every year.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 013/014 - Matches: 13/14 - Rank: 01217/33793 - Today: Bowser - Tomorrow: Ryu

He decreased by 1%. Woo-****ing-hoo. It's called normal variation. I swear, some of you people wouldn't be happy unless every character ranked within the same hundredth every year.

Did I ever say I don't agree with you? I never said it wasn't normal variation, just that him ranking 1% lower in the xstats would be the only reason I could see Bowser also being automatically decreased from his 2k3 level. I was saying it more as why it makes no sense that Bowser was decreased for pretty much no reason.
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Basically what I'm saying is that it made no sense that the xstats decreased bowser from his 2k3 level. Why did you automatically assume that I thought Mario's decrease wasn't part of normal variation?
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When was Bowser 2004 lowered? SC2K5.com has the same value for Bowser '03 and '04.
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Summer Contest 2005 --- Score: 13/14 --- Rank: T-1217

Oh, I misunderstood what you said. My apologies.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 013/014 - Matches: 13/14 - Rank: 01217/33793 - Today: Bowser - Tomorrow: Ryu

Hmm... you're right. For some reason I tohught the first value shown in the 2k3 stats was expected against cloud.
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So, apart from Ryu every single Street Fighter character is roughly in the same tier. Which is what I've thought for ages. So, Dan Hibiki or Scorpion?
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

Oh, I misunderstood what you said. My apologies.

Don't worry about it. I've misunderstood what people were saying plenty of times myself, it's probably my fault for not being clearer.
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So, apart from Ryu every single Street Fighter character is roughly in the same tier. Which is what I've thought for ages. So, Dan Hibiki or Scorpion?

Who's dan hibiki? a post sf2 character? I don't think that the post SF2 cast would be at the same tier as ken/bison/chun-li.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/2/2005 3:18:02 PM | #398
Who's dan hibiki?

The greatest character of all time.

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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

The greatest character of all time.

Well that clears up... absolutely nothing.
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