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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 178
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/2/2005 12:50:14 AM | Message Detail
I'm well aware of what "winning" implies. I just figured that I didn't have to say it because most people should already know not to take everything I say literally.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 8/2/2005 12:52:04 AM | Message Detail
Then what in Heaven's name is your point?
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LordOfDabu.nS)
To be defeated by us is an honor.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/2/2005 12:53:19 AM | Message Detail
That the phrase "winning the ____ vote" is stupid when talking about the losing character unless they're pulling in over 50% of the vote.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/2/2005 12:54:49 AM | Message Detail
It's a lot easier to say, and everyone in this topic knows what we mean. It's not a big deal, really.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/2/2005 12:55:00 AM | Message Detail
That the phrase "winning the ____ vote" is stupid when talking about the losing character unless they're pulling in over 50% of the vote.

Only if you take what it means literally.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: creativename | Posted: 8/2/2005 12:55:10 AM | Message Detail
But if you know what winning implies, why did you say that is "seriously" implies something that it doesn't...?

And again, a rising percentage is by necessity the first indication of a comeback, so certainly people should pay attention to that. In close matches, and also sometimes no so close ones—e.g., Chrono Trigger stuff :(
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/2/2005 12:57:05 AM | Message Detail
That the phrase "winning the ____ vote" is stupid when talking about the losing character unless they're pulling in over 50% of the vote.

We know it's technically false; the phrase is just used because saying "Chun Li is winning the night vote" is easier than saying "Chun Li is losing the night vote by less." It's like rSFF. That little r makes life so much easier than saying "SFF for the traditionally weaker character."
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/2/2005 12:57:21 AM | Message Detail
Fine, whatever. Different subject. Is it just me, or has Bowser been at 66.4% for quite awhile?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/2/2005 12:58:44 AM | Message Detail
Only for the last 25 minutes or so.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 8/2/2005 12:59:52 AM | Message Detail
Seems I spoke too soon. Bowser's percentage is dropping like a rock.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:02:14 AM | Message Detail
1:00
Bowser vs Chun Li - 5175
Tidus vs KoaC - 5510
Kirby vs Cecil - 5071

Not too great, right now.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:03:15 AM | Message Detail
Can't win em all, Bowser.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: voltch | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:03:16 AM | Message Detail
i wonder how many people are going to say that ryu will beat bowser if chun-li avoids a doubling?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:03:29 AM | Message Detail
I'm still amazed Tidus's match was such a draw...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:05:49 AM | Message Detail
Chun-Li's over 34% now.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: voltch | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:07:33 AM | Message Detail
tidus vs the king broke 100k? we should give a little bit of praise to the king for getting nearly 28k something tanner will never achieve.
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:12:41 AM | Message Detail
Does this mean The King > Big Boss? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

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"It takes but a man to gaze into his own twilight and approach it with fear. It takes but a legend to approach it with open arms." - The Unheard Z
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:13:35 AM | Message Detail
At this rate, Chun-Li can definitely have Bowser at or under 64% before the day vote hits. Will it be enough to avoid the doubling? One thing's for sure: it's sure enough to make my Oracle prediction look like **** yet again.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:15:16 AM | Message Detail
Not worse than mine.

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"It takes but a man to gaze into his own twilight and approach it with fear. It takes but a legend to approach it with open arms." - The Unheard Z
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:16:51 AM | Message Detail
1:00-1:15
"Updates Left: 91
Votes per update needed for Chun Li to catch up: 20.946
Bowser's % last update: 63.34%
Total Votes so far: 6056"

So a perdiction of 64% before the day vote is pretty good.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:17:15 AM | Message Detail
I never noticed Bowser had those spikey bracelets like Chun-Li. FIXED!

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"It takes but a man to gaze into his own twilight and approach it with fear. It takes but a legend to approach it with open arms." - The Unheard Z
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:18:41 AM | Message Detail
1:00-1:15
"Updates Left: 91
Votes per update needed for Chun Li to catch up: 20.946
Bowser's % last update: 63.34%
Total Votes so far: 6056"


Heh! I remember the days when this was the only way we had of knowing how the matches were progressing. Ah...good times! Good Times!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Eggplant Lord | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:32:03 AM | Message Detail
Bowser's droppage cannot accurately be conveyed by the metaphor of a rock.

...

BOWSER'S DROPPING LIKE ENRON'S STOCK VALUE! LOLOL!

===
Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:32:06 AM | Message Detail
Chun-li should be doing better... :(
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"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:32:38 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 65% 4493
Chun Li 35% 2419
TOTAL VOTES 6912

Not bad for a random refresh, eh?
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:32:52 AM | Message Detail
And she breaches 65...getting closer and closer to 63...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:35:56 AM | Message Detail
Wow, Bowser's percentage is falling hard. He's not increasing his lead very much right now.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/2/2005 1:56:10 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 64.68% 5174
Chun Li 35.33% 2826
TOTAL VOTES 8000

Bowser won't be doubling Chun Li anytime soon, unless his afternoon take happens to be exceptionally strong.
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 8/2/2005 2:21:15 AM | Message Detail
This match is sorta like Tidus/King, only reversed... >,>

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"It takes but a man to gaze into his own twilight and approach it with fear. It takes but a legend to approach it with open arms." - The Unheard Z
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 8/2/2005 2:26:53 AM | Message Detail
85 percent?

85 ****ING PERCENT!?!?!

BWAHAHAHA

I mean I love the King as much as the next guy, but DAYUM.

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It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: transience | Posted: 8/2/2005 2:40:35 AM | Message Detail
wow, I was playing shadow hearts 3 so hard that I forget there was a match.

anyway, wow. Bowser is beating the living hell out of Chun Li. she's making a bit of a push here in the wee hours - just 62.67% of the last hour's votes have been for Bowser - but Bowser's still kicking her ass. I'd expect this to end up around 59/41, but nothing near the 55-45 I thought might happen.
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metroid: zero mission - 28:50
http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
From: Kagato Toujou | Posted: 8/2/2005 2:41:24 AM | Message Detail
Bowser 64.16% 6416
Chun Li 35.84% 3584
TOTAL VOTES 10000

Like percentage like pic - Chun Li keeps shoving Bowser away from gaining anything at all.
From: transience | Posted: 8/2/2005 2:42:33 AM | Message Detail
hmm, Chun Li is expected to get 52.68% on M. Bison. I'd have pegged her for at -least- 55%. this is disappointing.
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metroid: zero mission - 28:50
http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
From: voltch | Posted: 8/2/2005 2:45:07 AM | Message Detail
anyone think we should use a term to refer to the five hyped matches in a row of round two? i suggest we call them the five star streak. does fss in acronyms
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: transience | Posted: 8/2/2005 2:50:57 AM | Message Detail
I see utterly no reason to name something like that. it's not a term we'd ever use or need.

..hey, here's a nice random refresh:

Bowser 64% 6643
Chun Li 36% 3736
TOTAL VOTES 10379
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metroid: zero mission - 28:50
http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
From: transience | Posted: 8/2/2005 2:53:11 AM | Message Detail
oh, and for whatever it's worth, I think MC/DK could be interesting, too. throw in the weirdness of Frog and we've got seven interesting matches right in a row. once we get rid of TV/Kefka / Crono, we've got Dante/Terra / Vincent and Magus/Squall. round 2 is winner.
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metroid: zero mission - 28:50
http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/2/2005 3:42:37 AM | Message Detail
The problem I have with that is even if mc was at his 2k3 level last year halo 2 has come out since, and sold a massive amount of copies with one of the most hyped releases any game has recieved. How many games had entire newspaper articles on them around their release? Since it outsold halo 1 it's logical to assume MC is a good deal stronger, even if his 2k4 level was screwy.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
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From: transience | Posted: 8/2/2005 3:53:16 AM | Message Detail
maybe I'm dumb, but wouldn't everyone who had halo 2 also have had halo 1? judging halo by its sales seems misleading, especially considering how CJ did. along with that, it seems like everything Nintendo is winning this year, especially everything in SSBM. I'm not saying DK will win, but I'll be surprised if it's anything near the doubling that 2k4 predicts. if you look at 2k3, they're practically even.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 8/2/2005 3:55:16 AM | Message Detail
MC is one of the worst charaters in the contest. I can't wait till he gets creamed by Crono. Come to think of it, Crono doesn't have much of a personality either. The point is, DK/MC will not be remotely exciting. The only thing we will see from that match is how much of a boost MC got from Halo 2. But that is going to happen every match of the contest. Tonight for example, people were saying that Bowser is going to easily beat Ryu, because Chun-Li is the 3rd strongest charater in her game, and she was being trippled yadda yadda yadda.

But I didnt realize that we will have 5 quailty matches in a row, which is downright awesome.
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/2/2005 4:04:16 AM | Message Detail
maybe I'm dumb, but wouldn't everyone who had halo 2 also have had halo 1?

It outsold halo 1 by millions of copies I believe, so expecting no increase would be insane.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: transience | Posted: 8/2/2005 4:07:39 AM | Message Detail
I would expect an increase, but not a massive one. do I think MC will win? yeah, of course, but I don't think it's going to be the doubling people expect.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/2/2005 4:11:11 AM | Message Detail
As the morning vote comes (it's now morning on the east coast making some shift in the voting pattrns) bowser has finally stopped dropping. By the end of the match I expect him to be around 66%. I think cun-li is about the same strength as Bison with maybe 2-3% leeway in the xstats in either direction, so bowser's performance is looking good regardless of whoever thought he would somehow pull off a tripling. Somebody outside clinkerothus tripling an SF character?. Highly doubtful. Hell even the lower character in the elite 8 would be i
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
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From: Zethis and SeRa | Posted: 8/2/2005 4:11:52 AM | Message Detail
You know, I would be in the Guru Contest, and winning, if I knew that you had to post the bracket in the stats topic. >.O
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Call me WVI.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/2/2005 4:17:24 AM | Message Detail
would expect an increase, but not a massive one. do I think MC will win? yeah, of course, but I don't think it's going to be the doubling people expect.

If he's overestimated in the xstats it's only due to the adjustment in megaman vs. link being to high/ not needing to be there in the first place. He wasn't as weak as his 2k3 level I don't think. Keep in mind sc2k5.com is down for me at the moment so I can't check how large the increase is.

Halo 2 at the very least would put him at his xstats value in 2k4 IMO. The anti-xbox sentiment on gamefaqs has been readily disapearing over the years, and you can't assume that everyone with halo 1 has halo 2. even if the two game were even in sales I'd expect some increase. As it stands halo 2 has outsold the first by so much that MC should get an increase on a fairly large level.
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From: Zethis and SeRa | Posted: 8/2/2005 4:17:25 AM | Message Detail
But I digress.

I also have nothing else to talk about.
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Call me WVI.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 8/2/2005 4:18:56 AM | Message Detail
You know, I would be in the Guru Contest, and winning, if I knew that you had to post the bracket in the stats topic. >.O

It was mentioned in the stats topics more then once that it had to be here due to te tradition.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
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From: Zethis and SeRa | Posted: 8/2/2005 4:19:37 AM | Message Detail
I'm well-aware at this point, Dragoon.

I just happen to never go into these topics for whatever reason.
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Call me WVI.
From: transience | Posted: 8/2/2005 4:21:10 AM | Message Detail
you're making it sound like I don't believe Halo 2 will help at all. of course it will help. but sales != strength when it comes to non-Square, non-Nintendo games. if I was going by that logic, I'd take TV or CJ over every last person in the contest, sans maybe Mario or Link.

after Ness/CJ, anything's possible.
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nominate Jay Solano for sc2k6.
From: voltch | Posted: 8/2/2005 4:26:41 AM | Message Detail
since a lot of people hate MC and CATS is well liked by this board and all the early voters.is it possible for him to win the first upate?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Zethis and SeRa | Posted: 8/2/2005 4:26:42 AM | Message Detail
"but sales != strength when it comes to non-Square, non-Nintendo games."

Then you might as well say sales don't matter at all. >_>
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Call me WVI.
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