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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 178
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:12:16 PM | Message Detail
I'm calling a doubling by Bowser.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:13:12 PM | Message Detail
What about Ken's 2k3 value?
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Summer Contest 2005 - Points: 12/13
Today's Prediction: Tidus - Tomorrow: Bowser
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:14:59 PM | Message Detail
And yes, I call a doubling as well..
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Summer Contest 2005 - Points: 12/13
Today's Prediction: Tidus - Tomorrow: Bowser
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:16:11 PM | Message Detail
I call a doubling by Bowser, and a doubling by Rikku.
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:16:37 PM | Message Detail
Rikku...doubling Ryu?

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:20:45 PM | Message Detail
By all '03 stats, Bowser beats Ken with 64.95%.

By Sp2K5 Bowser and '03 Ken, Bowser wins with 68.80%.

For a reliable reference, Bowser Sp2K5 is expected to beat M. Bison with 66.08%.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:21:40 PM | Message Detail
Oh, then Bowser will DEFINITELY double her (well, not definitely, but you know). Maybe he'll break 70 depending on her strength.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:22:03 PM | Message Detail
Should Chun-Li be stronger than Bison?
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Summer Contest 2005 - Points: 12/13
Today's Prediction: Tidus - Tomorrow: Bowser
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:23:32 PM | Message Detail
Assuming people played the Alpha games then yes.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:24:40 PM | Message Detail
I'm calling a doubling by Bowser.

Goin' solely by the numbers on the all-time x-stats (I don't know what value Bowser's based on), M. Bison would be expected to get 36.23%. If memory serves me right, the old SF2 poll on PotD (which I know is both old and has too many options to be completely accurate, don't bring that up) had M. Bison being tied for the next-to-least favorite character. Also by memory, in the same poll, Chun-Li got second...if not second, third for sure. If we weren't already down for a sig-bet, heh, I'd challenge that Chun-Li would do better than 36% on Bowser.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:26:15 PM | Message Detail
Hmm..ah, that street fighter poll, ..perhaps Chun-Li did place second.
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Summer Contest 2005 - Points: 12/13
Today's Prediction: Tidus - Tomorrow: Bowser
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:28:31 PM | Message Detail
Chun-Li will break 40% on Bowser. She might push for 43%. Sp2k5's credibility statwise is deteriorating given Ganondorf's horrific underperformance and Wesker doing so well on Lloyd (if Lloyd avoids a doubling next round, it will prove it).
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Summer 2005 Contest - 12/14 points
Current Match Prediction: Bowser vs. Chun-Li
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:29:20 PM | Message Detail
Lloyd would have to avoid a tripling to prove the stats right.
From: Kaidyn04 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:29:34 PM | Message Detail
More people like Chun-Li than Bison?

*loses all faith in humanity*
~~~~~
"I'm putting them out of there misery! See? I'm the good guy now! Perspectives are so easy to change." - Raedryn
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:30:01 PM | Message Detail
Favorite Street Fighter character polls:
March, 24, 2002
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=840
Febuary 11, 2000
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=73
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:30:11 PM | Message Detail
I know Ken and Chun-Li got second and third; I just don't know which ones got which.

Talking about polls, I'm gonna pitch an idea to Ulti: much like it was suggested the other day to have a link based on acronyms we commonly use, it could prove to be beneficial if we could possibly have something similar with the polls. Perhaps if we were to categorize FF polls, fighting game polls, who's-your-champion polls, Sonic polls...most/any we can use in the stats.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:30:42 PM | Message Detail
Goin' solely by the numbers on the all-time x-stats (I don't know what value Bowser's based on), M. Bison would be expected to get 36.23%. If memory serves me right, the old SF2 poll on PotD (which I know is both old and has too many options to be completely accurate, don't bring that up) had M. Bison being tied for the next-to-least favorite character. Also by memory, in the same poll, Chun-Li got second...if not second, third for sure. If we weren't already down for a sig-bet, heh, I'd challenge that Chun-Li would do better than 36% on Bowser.

If you know the poll is inaccurate, why did YOU bring it up?
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:31:59 PM | Message Detail
Bowser will only be doubling in the opening minutes, if then.
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LordOfDabu.nS)
To be defeated by us is an honor.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:32:20 PM | Message Detail
Lloyd would have to avoid a tripling to prove the stats right.

Imagine if Lloyd were to get Ryu H.'s percentage on Zero. The stats would collapse. It would put Wesker too close to Jill, which means Wesker would be projected to beat Kefka comfortably despite being blown out by him in Sp2k5.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 12/14 points
Current Match Prediction: Bowser vs. Chun-Li
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:37:06 PM | Message Detail
Bowser may not hit a doubling -- although I'm hoping he does and then some -- but I think he won't have any trouble hanging over 60%.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:37:19 PM | Message Detail
Notice I said completely accurate. You just have to know what you can pick and choose and what you can't. While it's uncertain if Sagat really is stronger than M. Bison in a contest setting, it would make alot of sense to see Chun-Li be stronger (though not promised), and it only foreshadowed how popular Ryu is. Even if M. Bison is stronger than Chun-Li, it'd have to be noticably so for Chun-Li to be doubled tomorrow.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:37:21 PM | Message Detail
I'm expecting 73-77% for Zero next round.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: PiGuy96 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:37:32 PM | Message Detail
Does Ryu have a color traditionally associated with him?
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Summer Contest 2005: 12/13
Today: Tidus, Tomorrow: Bowser
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:38:36 PM | Message Detail
SF Ryu? He's always in a white gi (unless you chose an alternative color or Evil Ryu)
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:39:02 PM | Message Detail
I personally think Lloyd will get 35% on Zero.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 12/14 points
Current Match Prediction: Bowser vs. Chun-Li
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:39:27 PM | Message Detail
I'll also correct myself; M. Bison, while still tied with Dhalsim, is NOT tied for next-to-last. They both beat three other characters (Balrog, E. Honda, and Zangief).
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:39:32 PM | Message Detail
I personally think Lloyd will get 35% on Zero.

And why?
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Summer Contest 2005 - Points: 12/13
Today's Prediction: Tidus - Tomorrow: Bowser
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:40:19 PM | Message Detail
Balrog deserves more respect.

He did win a contest...
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:40:42 PM | Message Detail
I also think that Lloyd will be putting up around 35% against Zero next round.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:40:45 PM | Message Detail
And why?

No reason, just an insane guess.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 12/14 points
Current Match Prediction: Bowser vs. Chun-Li
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:41:55 PM | Message Detail
I'll give Lloyd just barely over 30%. 35% is just setting yourself up for disappointment.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:42:09 PM | Message Detail
I doubt Zero will have any trouble breaking 70%.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: PiGuy96 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:42:51 PM | Message Detail
http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/5655/bowserryu3za.jpg

It's a pity that Bowser throws Mario diagonally...
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Summer Contest 2005: 12/13
Today: Tidus, Tomorrow: Bowser
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:44:05 PM | Message Detail
Awesome.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: Heroic_Cable | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:44:32 PM | Message Detail
You should edit MvC Ryu doing an air hadouken in Ken style.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:45:27 PM | Message Detail
Only two of my insane predictions have worked out (Kratos pushing for 45% against Alucard and The King avoiding a tripling). I'm terrible at guessing new characters' strength. I thought Lloyd would get over 70% on Wesker and CJ would get 57% on Ness.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 12/14 points
Current Match Prediction: Bowser vs. Chun-Li
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:45:40 PM | Message Detail
Bowser is guaranteed a win with that picture. =p

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:46:36 PM | Message Detail
I thought Lloyd would get over 70% on Wesker and CJ would get 57% on Ness.

Oddly enough, so did I.

*looks at his oracle standing*

It'll get better soon ;_;
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:47:05 PM | Message Detail
That should seriously be sent to CJay. That's an awesome pic...now, granted, he probably wouldn't use it, but maybe it'd inspire him to make his own similar picture? *shrugs*

Nice job, nonetheless.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:53:49 PM | Message Detail
45% for Chun-Li. You can take that to the bank!

Don't cash it though. It might not be good. I think she shouldn't have any trouble breaking 40 though.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:54:38 PM | Message Detail
I predict Bowser will make it a 60/40 affair.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:55:06 PM | Message Detail
43% for Chun-Li
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Summer 2005 Contest - 12/14 points
Current Match Prediction: Bowser vs. Chun-Li
From: Dranze | Posted: 8/1/2005 10:55:53 PM | Message Detail
Bleh, I don't think she could break 40%, I could be wrong though..
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Summer Contest 2005 - Points: 12/13
Today's Prediction: Tidus - Tomorrow: Bowser
From: Keno316 | Posted: 8/1/2005 11:00:56 PM | Message Detail
http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/5655/bowserryu3za.jpg


Damn! I agree that pic should be sent to Ceej! Suggest to make something along those lines...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: PiGuy96 | Posted: 8/1/2005 11:03:12 PM | Message Detail
There's no address to send pics to. Believe me, I tried for poor Ghaleon...
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Summer Contest 2005: 12/13
Today: Tidus, Tomorrow: Bowser
From: Applekidjosh | Posted: 8/1/2005 11:07:46 PM | Message Detail
That's a shame. Cause that picture is awesome...
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Currently sitting pretty at #25 on the leaderboard
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/1/2005 11:09:34 PM | Message Detail
41.5% for Chun-Li.


With less than an hour left and KoaC still increasing his percentage, I'm growing more and disappointed in my expectations for Tidus. If Tidus is at his 20XXF-adjusted level, KoaC is tied with Lara, which is something very believable to me. At the same time though, I still have a hard time believing Tidus will be noticably weaker than what 2k3 displayed him as. Even moreso, all signs are pointing to 20XX not needing adjustment, which would mean Tidus 2k4 would make KoaC be between Terry Bogard and Earthworm Jim...and I don't buy KoaC being that weak.

I'm gonna sit back and stay skeptical on this one right now, but I'm now more scared of Tidus winning the Dream Division. I hate to, considering the King's a new character and all, but the confusion of looking at the stats here makes me iffy on the matter when he's already a big under-dog in this division.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/1/2005 11:09:52 PM | Message Detail
Talking about polls, I'm gonna pitch an idea to Ulti: much like it was suggested the other day to have a link based on acronyms we commonly use, it could prove to be beneficial if we could possibly have something similar with the polls. Perhaps if we were to categorize FF polls, fighting game polls, who's-your-champion polls, Sonic polls...most/any we can use in the stats.

So these polls for certain:
-Game of the Year
-Favorite game in a series
-Favorite character in a series
-Who do you have winning the Contest

Possible ones to add:
-Contest matches
-Got (console)?
-Favorite Genre
-Have you played (game)?
-Have you entered the contest yet?
-Misc. Contest (like the upset one for the spring contest)

Anything else I'm missing that you might like to see?
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 8/1/2005 11:10:40 PM | Message Detail
We enjoy messing with people's heads ^_^
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 8/1/2005 11:12:13 PM | Message Detail
Then a petition, perhaps? I know that was tried last time...hours before the match. This would be weeks before the match. I would think it'd have alot better chance of happenin' if there was alot more time beforehand (if it has a chance at all). I would wait until Ryu/Rikku was over, then give it a go.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
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