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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 177
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/1/2005 3:58:22 PM | Message Detail
Skies of Arcadia did two things:

A) It is an RPG. This is an RPG haven. People have to use faq pages for RPGs. They dont have to use them as much for KD
B) It sold more than KD.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: crazyisgood | Posted: 8/1/2005 3:59:13 PM | Message Detail
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Randomness 12 http://www.misterpoll.com/2275886662.html
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:00:05 PM | Message Detail
Vyse would rock the King by more than he did against Laharl. I have no idea what is with this ridiculous overestimation of where the King is actually at.

He's no higher than the Gordon Freeman level. Seriously.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:00:30 PM | Message Detail
Squall/Kirby was a no-brainer, yet we waste time arguing on Tidus/Kirby? Tidus probably will not slap up the numbers Squall did, but make no mistake that this match will play out just as Shadow/Tidus did: a match that was never in doubt from the opening vote.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 14/14 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:01:52 PM | Message Detail
Squall would take Tidus to task.

And I hate Squall.
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Leon's Quest For Ultimate Glory:
1. Tripling Gordon Freeman.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:02:35 PM | Message Detail
I don't buy that for a second. A Kirby boost and another Tidus decrease (both of which aren't outside the realm of possibility) will make it a toss-up at the very least.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:03:29 PM | Message Detail
Next round is FAR from a no-brainer. If anything, Kirby/Tidus next round is a toss-up. This performance by Tidus is completley unimpressive.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:03:29 PM | Message Detail
If Kirby boosted and Tidus dropped again even further below his 2004 level, Kirby will beat him easily. He's already ahead of him.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:04:54 PM | Message Detail
Yeah Kirby doesnt need a boost. Heck, Kirby beats 20XX adjusted Tidus and we all know how that theory has been working out so far this contest.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:05:47 PM | Message Detail
As things stand, for Tidus>Kirby to happen, The King has to be able to beat Cecil at least 52.5-48.5.

That's not TOO far off from them being equal, but... I don't know. I think Kirby's actually got to be the favorite here, judging by what we've seen so far.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:07:05 PM | Message Detail
I wouldn't say anybody's the favorite. We've never seen either of their opponents before. Kirby overperformed and Tidus underperformed by our expectations. Big deal. How often are we right?
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:07:23 PM | Message Detail
Er, 52.5 to 47.5. Typo.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:08:09 PM | Message Detail
Apparently I am the only one rightfully putting stock in Tidus' showing against Ganondorf. The vote totals were high back when Tidus slapped up his impressive performance, and while they have yet to revert to 2k3 levels, they are higher than last year. Tidus/Kirby is a no-brainer to me, however I am far too lazy to try and force my correct views upon the delusional.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 14/14 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:09:50 PM | Message Detail
And when I say delusional, I mean it in the same sense as with last year's Shadow backers and this year's Ridley backers.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 14/14 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:10:35 PM | Message Detail
All Kirby needs to win next round is for both chars to be where the 2k4 X-stats put them.

If Kirby boosted, or Tidus dropped yet again, a Kirby victory is guaranteed.

Looks like I was right last year, Tidus is quickly fading into obscurity.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:12:28 PM | Message Detail
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/1/2005 6:10:35 PM | Message Detail

Tidus is quickly fading into obscurity.


Ell Ooh Ell. Four weeks from now somebody is going to be majorly owned... either me, or pretty much the rest of the topic. Hmm... don't think I liked my odds, but Ness did save me a little face earlier...

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 14/14 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:13:24 PM | Message Detail
How often are we right?

Not very often, this contest. I'm just saying, if we HAVE to give favorite status to one character here (say we're gambling, or something, or for spread betting) it's gotta be Kirby. The lead of an SNES FF game being weaker than a character from what's the definition of cult is a bit hard to deal with here... and even if we say that the two are equal, which is a decent assumption to make, Kirby wins.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:13:42 PM | Message Detail
How were last year's Shadow backers dillusional? If it wasn't for Tidus's overwhelming bracket support that match could very well have went the other way.
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So I said "Supercollide her? I just met her!"
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:14:14 PM | Message Detail
Anyone who thinks that 2004 Vyse (not that I think he probably has decreased with a year of age) would beat 2005 KOTC 51.8-48.2 is out of their mind.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:15:37 PM | Message Detail
If Cecil actually got a recognizable picture, he might have done a bit better. Still, FFIV has hardcore fans, but compared to FFVI and above, it's bound to be quite weak.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:16:39 PM | Message Detail
Right now Cecil stands between GF and Terry Bogard, is there something hard to believe about that?
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:17:08 PM | Message Detail
How were last year's Shadow backers dillusional? If it wasn't for Tidus's overwhelming bracket support that match could very well have went the other way.

There was no way Shadow was going to win that match. Every advantage there was to have in that match, Tidus had it. He just was not going to lose. Yes, the match was close, but I never had a doubt he would win.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:20:01 PM | Message Detail
It's strange that no one is bringing up the big vote total advantage Tidus is bound to have over Kirby when this is all said and done, considering people were trying to say Ganondorf had that advantage over Auron.

Tidus currently has 6,000 more votes than Kirby had at this same time, despite being at a lower percentage.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:22:32 PM | Message Detail
Heh, I tried to address the vote total factor earlier, but forgot to add the paragraph regarding Tidus' ability to draw votes. That, along with the fact I could never see Kirby beating Shadow, are the two main reasons why I have zero doubts that Tidus will defeat Kirby.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 14/14 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:23:17 PM | Message Detail
Leonhart, you forget. Vote totals are lower on Saturday and Sunday during the Summer. What was yesterday?
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:24:50 PM | Message Detail
Sunday didn't stop Riku/Frog from getting nearly 95,000 votes.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:25:12 PM | Message Detail
Well of course, He won by less ~1500 votes with him being in 10,000 more brackets than Shadow.

To think that the match couldn't have went differently if brackets weren't a factor is naive. There's no way Shadow could have won that? Please... anyone can come out on top in a 50-50 match.
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So I said "Supercollide her? I just met her!"
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:25:55 PM | Message Detail
Riku/Frog also had two midcarders in the closest match in the contest.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:27:37 PM | Message Detail
To think that the match couldn't have went differently if brackets weren't a factor is naive. There's no way Shadow could have won that? Please... anyone can come out on top in a 50-50 match.

To think that Tidus would not have a big bracket advantage in that match is also naive. That's part of the reason Shadow never had a chance. Yes, it was 50/50, but Tidus wasn't going to lose. Shadow had nothing to put him over the top.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:28:04 PM | Message Detail
I get the feeling that Tidus is also very good at drawing votes against him, though. Just a hunch.

Frankly, I'm just happy we have a bunch of toss up matches in round 2. Should be interesting, especially after this round will probably fail to give us any sort of down to the wire match.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:28:15 PM | Message Detail
Since nobody has addressed this yet, does anybody think Kirby could actually beat Shadow?

Sure, he got snubbed out of this contest, but that means nothing, as Aeris has been snubbed two years running despite back to back sweet sixteen appearances.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 14/14 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:28:21 PM | Message Detail
Shadow wins that match next year.

Shadow the Hedgehog > KH2
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: NewLib | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:28:57 PM | Message Detail
Yes I do. Shadow is very overrated in 2k3 due to THAT match.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: sidharta | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:30:03 PM | Message Detail
Ell Ooh Ell. Four weeks from now somebody is going to be majorly owned... either me, or pretty much the rest of the topic. Hmm... don't think I liked my odds, but Ness did save me a little face earlier...

Pay attention to the word "last year".
That's what I thought after Link crushed MM.

While today's match seems to support that assumption.
It's still just an assumption, I won't bet anything on it.

With that said, I really am worried about my Tidus > Kirby pick.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:30:18 PM | Message Detail
It's strange that no one is bringing up the big vote total advantage Tidus is bound to have over Kirby when this is all said and done, considering people were trying to say Ganondorf had that advantage over Auron.

Tidus currently has 6,000 more votes than Kirby had at this same time, despite being at a lower percentage.


When I realized the impressive vote totals for today's match, my faith in Tidus was instantly fortified. While I don't think he'll lose, I won't go so far as to say there's "no doubt in my mind."
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:30:30 PM | Message Detail
I get the feeling that Tidus is also very good at drawing votes against him, though. Just a hunch.

I said that earlier. When the percentage is this high, anti-votes would affect him.

In a close match, Tidus can still win in spite of them.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:30:31 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, round 2 looks awesome on paper, but then again so did round 1. But I find it hard to believe Ganondorf/Auron and Ryu/Bowser will disappoint us.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 14/14 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:31:38 PM | Message Detail
Since nobody has addressed this yet, does anybody think Kirby could actually beat Shadow?

There's nothing that exists that completely rules out that possibility.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:32:33 PM | Message Detail
Oh god. I just remembered. Leon, you're a self professed Tidus fanboy, aren't you.

Well then. Giving up before I give myself brain damage.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: therealmnm | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:33:32 PM | Message Detail
It's strange that no one is bringing up the big vote total advantage Tidus is bound to have over Kirby when this is all said and done, considering people were trying to say Ganondorf had that advantage over Auron.

I didn't bring it up because I don't think Tidus vs. Kirby is going to be as close as people are hyping it up to be. We all agree that Ganon/Auron will be close, so I threw out the vote totals as an indication of what MAY happen.

I see how Squall handled Kirby and I find it hard to believe that Tidus is that less popular than Squall. Both Tidus and Kirby faced characters we know nothing about contest wise. For all we know, Tidus may end up beating Kirby worse than Squall. We can't use Cecil as an indicator since he "can't" be that weak. Hell, we were thinking the same thing for Kuja...
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:33:55 PM | Message Detail
There's nothing that exists that completely rules out that possibility.

While true, it's pretty hard to imagine Kirby getting almost 45% on Mario before SFF.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:34:03 PM | Message Detail
And a self-professed Kirby fanboy. Give me a break here.

Am I saying Kirby cannot or will not win? No, I'm not. To say that Kirby will or will not win based on performances against new characters is what I have a problem with.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:34:05 PM | Message Detail
There is absolutely nothing wrong with being a Tidus fanboy. If you can get past the annoying personality and 'laughing scene,' he is actually a real kickass character.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 14/14 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:36:06 PM | Message Detail
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 8/1/2005 6:33:55 PM | Message Detail

While true, it's pretty hard to imagine Kirby getting almost 45% on Mario before SFF.


Couldn't have put it better myself without coming off smug.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 14/14 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:41:00 PM | Message Detail
Tidus 72.96% 58400
King of All Cosmos 27.04% 21648
TOTAL VOTES 80048

We ought to pass Kirby/Cecil somewhere around 10 P.M.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:42:34 PM | Message Detail
I have nothing against Tidus's character. He's a very well done character, he just annoys me. So I can't like him, personally.

It's just that there are some people in this topic who I would never argue with based on how they feel about the character in question. I can't decide if you're one of them or not, Leon.

In any case. I need to stop arguing anyway, because the meaning of the last two days' polls is something that can't be proven yet anyway. My thought processes simply go "I can't believe KoaC>Cecil, so Kirby has a good shot at beating Tidus. I believe this largely because I don't completely buy the idea of games not equaling characters, and the idea of Katamari Damacy beating Final Fantasy IV in a contest match is laughable". I may be wrong, and I suppose I can't convince any of you anyway.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:44:29 PM | Message Detail
And you know why I love this contest? We get two more matches where both characters, on paper, are evenly matched, going up against two characters whose strength we can only guess at. Which means chances are we get to have more heated debates about where exactly Chun-Li and the Al-Bhed hottie fall in the X-Stats...

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 14/14 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:46:07 PM | Message Detail
Which means chances are we get to have more heated debates about where exactly Chun-Li and the Al-Bhed hottie fall in the X-Stats...

For this, I'm just going to go with "assume that Chun-Li and Rikku are equal unless new developments make that impossible".

I just wish new characters had more of a purpose in this thing than confusing us as to the strength of returnees.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:46:56 PM | Message Detail
Me thinks the Cecil/KoaC relation will play out like Nemesis/Ultros. After the two matches, everybody was worried about Wily>Ocelot, and in the end, it was never close. Sure, all four of the characters were new then, but that is really not terribly relevant, me thinks. I end it with one last comment:

Go Kefka!

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 14/14 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 8/1/2005 4:47:33 PM | Message Detail
Go Chun-Li!

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"It takes but a man to gaze into his own twilight and approach it with fear. It takes but a legend to approach it with open arms." - The Unheard Z
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