Summer 2005 Contest
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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 175
From: creativename
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:20:07 PM | Message Detail
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/30/2005 5:05:26 PM | Message Detail | #347
Based solely on our expectations, which isn't always the most reliable thing in the world.
Well, obviously I meant relative to expectations, as I said that there was no data.
And I'm the guy that keeps bringing up how people shouldn't judge using prior distributions of expectations, remember :)
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
Based solely on our expectations, which isn't always the most reliable thing in the world.
Well, obviously I meant relative to expectations, as I said that there was no data.
And I'm the guy that keeps bringing up how people shouldn't judge using prior distributions of expectations, remember :)
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: FastFalcon05
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:21:21 PM | Message Detail
From: outback | Posted: 7/30/2005 2:09:19 PM | Message Detail
49 people in the Oracle challenge had Sora over 78%
And every single one of them knows just about as much on 47 and Kratos as we do: nothing.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
49 people in the Oracle challenge had Sora over 78%
And every single one of them knows just about as much on 47 and Kratos as we do: nothing.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: creativename
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:22:32 PM | Message Detail
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/30/2005 5:14:15 PM | Message Detail | #349
It's not that farfetched to believe that "the guy from Hitman" is about as popular as Max Payne or "the guy from Splinter Cell"...
If you just talk about pre-event logic, then actually I think it would be kind of tough to see Agent 47 on par with Max Payne. Just because Max Payne is so much more well-known, and does not suffer from "that guy from..." syndrome. Sam Fisher though does seem like a reasonable comparison, which I guess is why people have been making it so much.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
It's not that farfetched to believe that "the guy from Hitman" is about as popular as Max Payne or "the guy from Splinter Cell"...
If you just talk about pre-event logic, then actually I think it would be kind of tough to see Agent 47 on par with Max Payne. Just because Max Payne is so much more well-known, and does not suffer from "that guy from..." syndrome. Sam Fisher though does seem like a reasonable comparison, which I guess is why people have been making it so much.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Sir Crono
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:27:55 PM | Message Detail
Sora 71% 43100
Agent 47 29% 17608
TOTAL VOTES 60708
Back up there again.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
Agent 47 29% 17608
TOTAL VOTES 60708
Back up there again.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Heroic Viktor
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:28:24 PM | Message Detail
Agent 47 is nowhere near as strong as Max Payne, as I do believe he fails to be the same name as the game he is in.
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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 12/12 (empty slots in brackets suck)
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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 12/12 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: therealmnm
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:32:51 PM | Message Detail
Agent 47 is nowhere near as strong as Max Payne, as I do believe he fails to be the same name as the game he is in.
That still doesn't mean that he isn't more popular as a character. If anything, that may be a good deal of the reason why Max Payne is as popular as he is. I'd bet that Agent 47 would be a tad stronger than he's showing right now if his name was "Hitman".
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
That still doesn't mean that he isn't more popular as a character. If anything, that may be a good deal of the reason why Max Payne is as popular as he is. I'd bet that Agent 47 would be a tad stronger than he's showing right now if his name was "Hitman".
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Heroic Viktor
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:36:09 PM | Message Detail
And I would completely agree with you that if his name was 'Hitman' he
would be performing better. But I am getting at, in this particular
case (as with Ridley/Diablo), the fact that one character is named
after his game will carry enough of an edge to make the match
(Max/Agent 47) a no-brainer.
Additionally, how much would Kefka be projected to get on Kirby?
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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 12/12 (empty slots in brackets suck)
Additionally, how much would Kefka be projected to get on Kirby?
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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 12/12 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: Sir Crono
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:37:54 PM | Message Detail
Kefka would be expected to get 39.85% on Kirby (Yes, that's noticeably less than Ramza).
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Crono
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:38:53 PM | Message Detail
Oh, speaking of which, I'm curious to see:
Who here would still take Kefka over Yuna? I know there were quite a few on that bandwagon before this contest.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
Who here would still take Kefka over Yuna? I know there were quite a few on that bandwagon before this contest.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: TheGreatMaster
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:39:08 PM | Message Detail
How much would Kefka be expected to get on Dante?
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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
From: Sir Crono
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:40:16 PM | Message Detail
40.63% on Dante for Kefka.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: RPGuy96
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:41:55 PM | Message Detail
Who here would still take Kefka over Yuna? I know there were quite a few on that bandwagon before this contest.
Hmph. Until we get definite proof that Angel/Sprite Kefka is a lot stronger than FMV/Lettuce Kefka (Luca/Wesker is a step in the right direction), I would reluctantly take Yuna.
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
Hmph. Until we get definite proof that Angel/Sprite Kefka is a lot stronger than FMV/Lettuce Kefka (Luca/Wesker is a step in the right direction), I would reluctantly take Yuna.
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
From: RPGuy96
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:44:36 PM | Message Detail
Kefka would be expected to get 39.85% on Kirby (Yes, that's noticeably less than Ramza).
Only if you bring Alucard up in 2k3 to match is 2k4 value, which I've thought for a while now isn't the best idea.
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
Only if you bring Alucard up in 2k3 to match is 2k4 value, which I've thought for a while now isn't the best idea.
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
From: Sir Crono
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:48:08 PM | Message Detail
Only if you bring Alucard up in 2k3 to match is 2k4 value, which I've thought for a while now isn't the best idea.
So Ganondorf was actually weaker last year?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
So Ganondorf was actually weaker last year?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: RPGuy96
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:55:07 PM | Message Detail
No, Alucard gained. He did beat Kirby and Ramza; that's got to get his name out there some. Much moreso then Tails and Nukem.
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
From: SonicRaptor
| Posted: 7/30/2005 2:58:36 PM | Message Detail
So, this is the first time today that I could comment on last night's results. Lousy work...
Anyways, I'm pretty damn surprised that Kratos/Alucard has the lowest correct percentage yet. Especially considering Alucard was a complete and utter lock the second the bracket was unveiled. Of course, it's probably due to the seeding but I'm still surprised the percentage is lower than Ness/CJ.
Good to see Agent 47 is not pure fodder, but looks like a lower seed that struggles to keep up.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
Anyways, I'm pretty damn surprised that Kratos/Alucard has the lowest correct percentage yet. Especially considering Alucard was a complete and utter lock the second the bracket was unveiled. Of course, it's probably due to the seeding but I'm still surprised the percentage is lower than Ness/CJ.
Good to see Agent 47 is not pure fodder, but looks like a lower seed that struggles to keep up.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: Sir Crono
| Posted: 7/30/2005 3:00:02 PM | Message Detail
Kirby's "gain" is equivalent to what Alucard "gained." Regardless, even
if you think Squall was weaker last year, Bomberman wouldn't really be
proof of that since he was closer to Kirby than he was in 2003. I just
don't think it's mere coincidence that Kirby and Alucard would still be
in the same proportion when adjusted.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: RPGuy96
| Posted: 7/30/2005 3:10:23 PM | Message Detail
Well, Sonic, Ryu, and KOS-MOS gained proportionally. Should we adjust
them up in 2k3 or down in 2k4, then? Either that or coincidences such
as that can occur.
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
From: Dilated Chemist
| Posted: 7/30/2005 3:12:06 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Sir Crono
| Posted: 7/30/2005 3:13:06 PM | Message Detail
Did any of those characters face each other in 2003? No, that's different, I think.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Dilated Chemist
| Posted: 7/30/2005 3:14:23 PM | Message Detail
Fact or Fiction?
Kirby will double Cecil.
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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME
Kirby will double Cecil.
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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME
From: Rodri316
| Posted: 7/30/2005 3:14:40 PM | Message Detail
Fact.
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Summer 2005 Contest -- Current Score: 10/11
Today's Prediction -- Sora vs. Agent 47
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Summer 2005 Contest -- Current Score: 10/11
Today's Prediction -- Sora vs. Agent 47
From: JonPen1416
| Posted: 7/30/2005 3:15:07 PM | Message Detail
Fiction
Cecil will get 40%
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I need to put something here.
Cecil will get 40%
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I need to put something here.
From: Sir Crono
| Posted: 7/30/2005 3:15:16 PM | Message Detail
Fiction. Cecil will not be THAT weak. He'll definitely be stronger than Kain.
From LoK, though he would be stronger than his own Kain, too.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From LoK, though he would be stronger than his own Kain, too.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Tianya
| Posted: 7/30/2005 3:16:18 PM | Message Detail
p
From: TheGreatMaster
| Posted: 7/30/2005 3:21:30 PM | Message Detail
I'll be very interested in how well Cecil does, as it may be a good indicator as to whether Terra has a chance against Dante.
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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
From: Heroic Mario
| Posted: 7/30/2005 3:22:59 PM | Message Detail
Fiction.
Cecil shouldn't be weak enough to get doubled by Kirby. But for some reason, it would seem that Kirby would do such a thing with how the contest is going.
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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
Cecil shouldn't be weak enough to get doubled by Kirby. But for some reason, it would seem that Kirby would do such a thing with how the contest is going.
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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: TheGreatMaster
| Posted: 7/30/2005 3:23:48 PM | Message Detail
On the other hand, Kirby performing well would help my Kirby > Tidus pick...
Here's hoping for obscenely high vote totals indicating strength for both characters. <_<
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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
Here's hoping for obscenely high vote totals indicating strength for both characters. <_<
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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
From: CompmanJX3
| Posted: 7/30/2005 3:26:53 PM | Message Detail
I hope Kirby doubles Cecil, because I personally don't care for Cecil at all.
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Currently: 11/12 | Next: Kirby
watch out dum cecil kirby suk you up and spit u you out
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Currently: 11/12 | Next: Kirby
watch out dum cecil kirby suk you up and spit u you out
From: RPGuy96
| Posted: 7/30/2005 3:34:31 PM | Message Detail
Cecil is my favorite Final Fantasy lead, and one of only three that I actually like.
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
From: Janus5000
| Posted: 7/30/2005 4:01:26 PM | Message Detail
Sora 70.91% 47271
Agent 47 29.09% 19395
TOTAL VOTES 66666
Sora's not doing so well... so much for Neo-Tanner.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
Agent 47 29.09% 19395
TOTAL VOTES 66666
Sora's not doing so well... so much for Neo-Tanner.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: Keno316
| Posted: 7/30/2005 4:05:00 PM | Message Detail
You think we'll see a prediction percentage under 50% before the first round is over?
Seems like there are only 2 more matches where we might see it...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
Seems like there are only 2 more matches where we might see it...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: RPGuy96
| Posted: 7/30/2005 4:10:08 PM | Message Detail
Kefka/Vercetti could go under 50% no matter who wins. Terra beating
Dante and Kerrigan beating Vincent would likely be under 50%. Same with
KOS-MOS upsetting Luigi or Pac-Man upsetting Ocelot. The only other
match that I'm not sure if it could or not is Kratos Aurion/Diablo.
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
From: Master Moltar
| Posted: 7/30/2005 4:58:53 PM | Message Detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b13.jpg
So, does Dark Knight Cecil help or hurt?
And re-sized, smushed Kirby looks bad ;.;
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Sora vs. Agent 47 - Bracket: Sora - Vote: Sora (10/11)
So, does Dark Knight Cecil help or hurt?
And re-sized, smushed Kirby looks bad ;.;
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Sora vs. Agent 47 - Bracket: Sora - Vote: Sora (10/11)
From: Heroic Mario
| Posted: 7/30/2005 4:59:35 PM | Message Detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b13.jpg
That's the picture I expected Cecil to get. <3
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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
That's the picture I expected Cecil to get. <3
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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: dragoontheguy
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:00:11 PM | Message Detail
I think kirby looks really good. Cecil looks like a charred skeleton,
or spawn, or possibly some sort of metalic venom. Still any dark knight
picture is better then the paladin picture I was afraid he was going to
get stuck with.
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From: Master Moltar
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:05:19 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and Kirby NEEDS a fire/sword Kirby picture next round.
And Tidus should get something really, really bad.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Sora vs. Agent 47 - Bracket: Sora - Vote: Sora (10/11)
And Tidus should get something really, really bad.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Sora vs. Agent 47 - Bracket: Sora - Vote: Sora (10/11)
From: dragoontheguy
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:06:42 PM | Message Detail
I'td be great if he got his one armed picture again.
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From: Dilated Chemist
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:08:36 PM | Message Detail
Kirby with 70%.
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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME
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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME
From: RPGuy96
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:09:30 PM | Message Detail
Kirby looks badass, which isn't easy to pull off. Cecil looks about as
good as a character can look when drawn by Amano, which isn't saying a
whole lot. I'm kind of worried about recognizability for him, but that
"Favorite FF Lead" poll kind of allays my fears.
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
From: bigkevinm84
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:10:47 PM | Message Detail
Kirby looks great. Kirby with 63% for the win.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: dragoontheguy
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:13:03 PM | Message Detail
Can you link me to that favourite ff lead poll? I'm curious to see, but
don't feel like sifting through all the previous polls to find it.
Hopefully Cecil does respectably tomorrow, he's my favourite FF lead
character.
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From: RPGuy96
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:16:01 PM | Message Detail
Sorry, I don't feel like sifting through previous polls, either. :p
I don't even remember the percentages, but I do remember Cecil doing better than I expected him to.
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
I don't even remember the percentages, but I do remember Cecil doing better than I expected him to.
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
From: dragoontheguy
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:18:38 PM | Message Detail
Oh, I thought you might have ad the link on hand. Sorry to bother you about it.
Cecil doing well in it is definitely a good thing though. I hope he can get around 45% or so on Kirby. I sort of doubt he'll be any sort of threat though. He's probably going to end up as another character in between kefka and knux.
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Cecil doing well in it is definitely a good thing though. I hope he can get around 45% or so on Kirby. I sort of doubt he'll be any sort of threat though. He's probably going to end up as another character in between kefka and knux.
---
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From: Team Rocket Elite
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:29:35 PM | Message Detail
Can you link me to that favourite ff lead poll?
Here you go:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1445
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
Here you go:
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1445
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: dragoontheguy
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:31:57 PM | Message Detail
Thanks TRE. Wow Cecil was third place. I wouldn't take it with any more
then a grain of salt, but it's still very impressive. Same goes for
Zidane and Terra being about the same as Tidus.
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From: Dilated Chemist
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:32:43 PM | Message Detail
http://gametrailers.com/player.php?id=13&type=wmv
Best. Trailer. EVER.
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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME
Best. Trailer. EVER.
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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME
From: RPGuy96
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:33:16 PM | Message Detail
TRE comes through, as always. That's worth lowering my Oracle prediction a few percent.
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
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Summer Contest 2005: 10/11
Today Sora, Tomorrow: Kirby
From: transience
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:42:02 PM | Message Detail
ugh, that picture of Cecil is bad. I love and will vote for Cecil, but
if it didn't have his name next to it I'd have no idea who/what it was.
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metroid: zero mission - 28:50
http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
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metroid: zero mission - 28:50
http://speeddemosarchive.com/mzm.html
From: Heroic Mario
| Posted: 7/30/2005 5:53:46 PM | Message Detail
That's the best picture Cecil could have asked for that wasn't a sprite.
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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg