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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 175
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/29/2005 5:33:34 PM | Message Detail
The heart may be weak, and sometimes it may even give in. But I've learned that deep down, there's a light that never goes out!

Man, Kingdom Hearts is cheesy.

*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawa tsoP
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: The Wise Tonberry | Posted: 7/29/2005 5:34:36 PM | Message Detail
Is it just me, or does Kratos look unbelievably constipated in that picture?
---
...Scratch that, change 'physics' to 'two chicks at once'.
--Aeon Azuran
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/29/2005 5:34:42 PM | Message Detail
I have the strangest feeling Agent 47 will do much better than everyone thinks. And I mean MUCH better.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 9/11 points
Current Match Prediction: Sora vs. Agent 47
From: Undeniable | Posted: 7/29/2005 5:34:58 PM | Message Detail
No, Sora is Cheesy.
~~~
In loving memory of Hassan.
http://hassanator.ytmnd.com/
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 7/29/2005 5:36:40 PM | Message Detail
Ulti not postin the topic huh? Strange.
---
WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
*Is now in need of a sig
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/29/2005 5:41:12 PM | Message Detail
I'd like to see it too. Along with any other worlds out there! I want to see 'em all!

---
I need to put something here.
From: Prometheus321 | Posted: 7/29/2005 6:56:14 PM | Message Detail
Agent 47=/= neo-Tanner
---
VOTE: BOWSER in the Summer Contest
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/29/2005 6:56:28 PM | Message Detail
or does Kratos look unbelievably constipated in that picture?

It isn't drastically different from the original picture, but there were some editing problems I can point out that CJayC ran into. Not that I blame him or anything.

http://image.com.com/gamespot/images/2005/076/reviews/919864_20050318_screen002.jpg

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/29/2005 6:58:48 PM | Message Detail
Damn, he looks even more like Tyson Tomko with a bladejob gone to hell on that shot.

Oh, and wait 'till you have to have a Sonic Heroes intro. Now THAT's going to be cheesy. As much as I love the game, it makes KH's script look like a masterpiece.
---
SC2K5 status - Points: 008/009 - Matches: 08/09 - Rank: 03492/33793 - Today: Zelda - Tomorrow: Alucard
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/29/2005 6:59:48 PM | Message Detail
Let's show him the power of TEAMWORK!
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: meche313 | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:01:11 PM | Message Detail
I'm still awaiting for Alucard's night vote. I think it will never come ;__;
---
That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:01:36 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and wait 'till you have to have a Sonic Heroes intro. Now THAT's going to be cheesy. As much as I love the game, it makes KH's script look like a masterpiece.

"Shaaaaaaa!"

"Whoa, my heads spinning!"
---
Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:02:38 PM | Message Detail
The heart may be weak, and sometimes it may even give in. But I've learned that deep down, there's a light that never goes out!

What the **** is this ***** ****?
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:04:09 PM | Message Detail
I'm still awaiting for Alucard's night vote. I think it will never come

Heh. Kratos just seemed to take care of business at all times from the morning on. =p

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: meche313 | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:06:40 PM | Message Detail
Yeah. Makes my Oracle prediction look like trash.

Well, not really. but it's still like 6 points behind...
---
That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:14:45 PM | Message Detail
Go Gadget go!
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:15:16 PM | Message Detail
Dang it. The first time Ive actually tried to get the 500th post because I had something so cool to say that only a 500 would do. Oh well it will have to wait.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:15:53 PM | Message Detail
Actually . . .

I wonder who would win in an Adventure vs Tanner match.
---
I need to put something here.
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:16:08 PM | Message Detail
Also am I the only person that thinks that Kratos's performance means good things for Leon?
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:16:20 PM | Message Detail
I remembered when Alucard/Sora was a tough match to call.

Then I remembered it was a Castlevania character going up against the main character of Kingdom Hearts.

Sora will win easily.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:17:39 PM | Message Detail
I remembered when Alucard/Sora was a tough match to call.

...?

What has suddenly changed that made it an easy match to call? Alucard will be winning that one.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:18:50 PM | Message Detail
Then I remembered it was a Castlevania character going up against the main character of Kingdom Hearts.

Ah yes, the game that bombed last year.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:19:22 PM | Message Detail
Prediction: Sora gets around 65% on Agent 47 and everyone will be lamenting Sora's certain fate of losing to Alucard. Fact is we still dont know a thing.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:20:25 PM | Message Detail
Fact is we still dont know a thing.

Exactly. We honestly don't have anything solid to base these performances off of. Agent 47 and Kratos both being new won't tell us a thing about how the two are looking against each other.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:21:39 PM | Message Detail
Ah yes, the game that bombed last year.

I don't remember anything related to Kingdom Hearts ever bombing.
---
I need to put something here.
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:23:23 PM | Message Detail
I remember in the Spring Contest that a lot of people thought the 64/128 division would be challenging the 8 division as weakest division.

We were a bit wrong.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:23:43 PM | Message Detail
Ah yes, the game that bombed last year.

Rather than the game that would lose to FFTA.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:23:47 PM | Message Detail
I don't remember anything related to Kingdom Hearts ever bombing.

It almost bowed out to Soul Calibur when it was supposed to easily defeat Halo/Starcraft. Hell, some people argued that it would give Wind Waker all it could handle.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:24:48 PM | Message Detail
What has suddenly changed that made it an easy match to call?

Just putting things into perspective. I was sure of this before lockdown.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:25:13 PM | Message Detail
SOTN was SFF'd: FACT
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:25:15 PM | Message Detail
KH didn't live up to expectations but it still did damn well.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:25:45 PM | Message Detail
It almost bowed out to Soul Calibur when it was supposed to easily defeat Halo/Starcraft. Hell, some people argued that it would give Wind Waker all it could handle.

I can't even comprehend how getting 46.5% on StarCraft could be considered bombing. For all we know, Soul Calibur could be a strong game.
---
I need to put something here.
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:26:00 PM | Message Detail
I seriously think CJay should alternate years. Even years do a Games contest in the Spring. Odd years do a Villian/Other type of contest.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:26:11 PM | Message Detail
It almost bowed out to Soul Calibur when it was supposed to easily defeat Halo/Starcraft.

Chalk that up to underestimating SC (both of them) and Halo rather than Kingdom Hearts. It was still very strong.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:26:14 PM | Message Detail
He could've won any other 3/6 except against Yuna, Knuckles, and MAYBE Chun-Li.

So Kratos could beat Zero, Tifa, Yoshi, and Vercetti then? Hmmm...nope; Yoshi and Vercetti are both a small stretch to believe, and the other two are almost certainly not gettin' beat by Kratos. I also wouldn't be givin' Kratos a shot against Bowser like that.


The only thing that sucks about this is that Kratos could have been matched against someone he would have won against and very few would have taken him...

Kratos/CJ, anybody? Heh.


The most I can see a character being guarnteed no matter who they face is 5-10%.

Which, just to put into perspective for those saying Lloyd is guaranteed so-n-so percent against Link/Zero/whoever, this means that said-percent of your choice is the percentage of people who come to GameFAQs with Lloyd as their favorite character at the time. I would think that anybody outside of the "Noble Nine" would be VERY hard-pressed to have 5% of GameFAQs users consider them to be their favorite character...Lloyd's no Magus, in that sense.


People realized that Agent 47 wasn't as likely to be as pathetic as he looked when the bracket was first released. He seemed awfully generic and cult (since we had no idea where he was from), but then we realized that the games sold well and he's actually well-liked by his fanbase.

Bingo.


I think Yuri's the closest we're gonna get to Tanner in this contest.

Nah...still not sold on Manny being stronger than Yuri yet.



As for the match at hand, Kratos keeps on impressing. Nice.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:26:24 PM | Message Detail
SOTN was SFF'd

...By Goldeneye?

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:27:28 PM | Message Detail
I seriously think CJay should alternate years. Even years do a Games contest in the Spring. Odd years do a Villian/Other type of contest.

I'd like to see a games vs characters contest, actually.

Who wants to predict Link vs FF7? I sure don't.
---
I need to put something here.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:28:48 PM | Message Detail
I love it when people arrogantly proclaim that their pick is an obvious winner a month before the match takes place, with no real evidence whatsoever, just as an attempt to make themselves feel better about their choice. Oh wait, no I don't.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:29:26 PM | Message Detail
From: Lucid Faia
...By Goldeneye?

... What I can believe...

<_<

(Seriously I was just making a joke.)
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:29:39 PM | Message Detail
Who wants to predict Link vs FF7? I sure don't.

Wow... that'd be a close one.... But it'd be too hard comparing a game and a character...

GAMES =/= CHARACTERS, you know.
---
Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:30:06 PM | Message Detail
I love it when people arrogantly proclaim that their pick is an obvious winner a month before the match takes place, with no real evidence whatsoever, just as an attempt to make themselves feel better about their choice. Oh wait, no I don't.

Then this topic isn't for you. =\

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:30:55 PM | Message Detail
Wow... that'd be a close one.... But it'd be too hard comparing a game and a character...

GAMES =/= CHARACTERS, you know.


I think that's what would make the contest good. The X-stats would be all but useless.
---
I need to put something here.
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:30:56 PM | Message Detail
From: JonPen1416
I'd like to see a games vs characters contest, actually.

Who wants to predict Link vs FF7? I sure don't.


No please. First off, too many good characters/games will be left off. Second off, there is something called too chaotic. That contest would make 2002 look peachy.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:32:48 PM | Message Detail
Second off, there is something called too chaotic. That contest would make 2002 look peachy.

Chaotic . . . but fun! Just imagine how many good matches there could be.
---
I need to put something here.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:33:03 PM | Message Detail
I love it when people arrogantly proclaim that their pick is an obvious winner a month before the match takes place, with no real evidence whatsoever, just as an attempt to make themselves feel better about their choice. Oh wait, no I don't.

In my defense, I usually only do that when I'm joking around. And besides, with what we've seen from this contest so far, it's clear that any arrogance can hilariously blow up in one's face. Tread carefully, egomaniacs.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:33:10 PM | Message Detail
So Kratos could beat Zero, Tifa, Yoshi, and Vercetti then?

Kratos is a 3 seed. I'm obviously talking about him facing one of the 6 seeds.

And yes, he would be expected to beat Vercetti right now. Barely, but he's ahead.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:33:44 PM | Message Detail
Then this topic isn't for you. =\

Generally people try to back up their picks with SOME sort of logic. Real logic I mean, not just the Castlevania vs Kingdom Hearts comparison you threw out there.

Personally, I think Alucard vs Sora will be close. After Zelda's overwhelming performance against Vivi, it's clear that she gained since 2K3 (well, pretty clear), and seeing as Link also gained last year, logic would dictate that Ganondorf ALSO gained from 2K3 to 2K4, and we just didn't account for it. If this is indeed the case, Alucard is also be a bit stronger than the stats say, which should be nullified by a bit of a boost for Sora from CoM. This match has the makings of greatness.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:34:16 PM | Message Detail
So, how's the night vote going?

*sees Kratos is still gaining*

*shoots off WTF flags*

If Kratos ends with 45% on Alucard.

28 Yoshi 27.05
29 Dante 26.84
30 Knuckles 26.70
31 Liquid Snake 26.28
Kratos 25.93%
32 Tommy Vercetti 25.49
33 Donkey Kong 25.34
34 Luigi 25.24
35 Jill Valentine 25.14


In the 2004 stats, that puts him at 27.04% on '03 Link. Right below Vivi and Yoshi, and above Shadow and Knuckles. Is the God of War really that high up?
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Kratos vs. Alucard - Bracket: Alucard - Vote: Alucard (9/10)
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:35:05 PM | Message Detail
Yes but this is a contest and I'd like it not just be a free give-away to whoever is the luckiest.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/29/2005 7:36:50 PM | Message Detail
Yes but this is a contest and I'd like it not just be a free give-away to whoever is the luckiest.

Well, you would need some skill to predict it. And besides, I'd give anything to see a whole lot of close, exciting matches.
---
I need to put something here.
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