Stop throwing this around until it's definite. rSFF is a myth (and an extremely shaky one) until proven otherwise.

We'll find out after Mario/Samus. I have Samus in my bracket though.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/10 points
Current Match Prediction: Kratos (God of War) vs. Alucard

We'll find out after Mario/Samus. I have Samus in my bracket though.

Well, we won't know for sure, Mario might actually be stronger than Samus or just about equal now... Their performances this round indicate that they could be closer than they were anyway.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Their performances this round indicate that they could be closer than they were anyway.

...Based on what? Estimates with no solid foundation?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

...Based on what? Estimates with no solid foundation?

Yep. That's why I said COULD instead of ARE or PROBABLY ARE.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

But their performances indicate NOTHING. There's no "could," "are," or "probably are" about them.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

6 1/2 hours from Tallahassee to Miami. Not bad at all... My fastest time yet, and I wasn't even really speeding.

Looks like I haven't missed anything. The topic has been talking about a whole bunch of nothing. :) About a Snake pic for the sprite round, Ceej should just rip a pic from an in-game shot like he did for Squall in 2k3. Perhaps when the camera zooms in a bit, such as when Snake peeks around a corner. If he could do it with Squall, Auron, and Sephiroth, then he should be able to do it for Snake.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't.

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:40:26 PM | #355
But their performances indicate NOTHING. There's no "could," "are," or "probably are" about them.

What about... a "probably could"? :D

///
I simply must say I'm completely out of ideas for a sig!

I did say "could have been"...besides, that's the only match we'll have to go by with Riku for at least a year and it was closer than expected by many. Add to it how most/all of us have considered 8-bit games not holding up well to any other games (except SMB3...and I would even argue that one to a minor bit), and this might have been an example of that rSFF we often toss out the window. Magus/Squall may answer more on this, as may Terra/Vincent if Terra beats Dante, for for right now I'm still gonna stay skeptical on Riku.

Not to say Riku didn't impress or isn't strong, though; I just don't accept Riku > Yoshi yet.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

That's probably because you didn't expect it before the contest started.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Maybe so, but I didn't expect Big Boss to do as bad as he did either. I'm comfortable with where he's at though, even if we don't have an EXACT spot for Auron yet.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

It's easier to accept weakness than strength. A lot of people didn't want to accept that Cloud could realistically beat Link even after he stomped a mudhole into Sonic.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Oh yeah, and I like Sora as well! I have nothing to hide. I don't know why he gets all the hate. He's actually rather strong for a 14 year old kid. He never whined or complained about anything like Tidus did.


*SPOILERS*
He also got better throughout the game. He actually impressed me when he stood up to Riku at Hollow Bastion. Plus he has the new look and darker attitude in KH2. I'm looking forward to that game.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

The thing is, I think DK actually increased in 2003. I don't see Aya being in the upper half of the stats in 2002, and I don't see Bub being Vyse's equal. Perhaps he benefitted from GTA anti-votes against Vercetti or something.

I have always suspected GTA anti-votes.

Kite always seemed too high to me , and Max Payne did have a suspiciously large increase when he faced Vercetti as well.

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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire

Random musings time.

Either Vivi's making Zelda look like Sonic (adj.) or Ganondorf (unadj.) or Zelda is making Vivi look like Felix. Ouch. Zelda's going to give Snake the fight of his life next round, and I'd have to consider her the favorite. I wouldn't count Snake out, of course, but I think it's Zelda's match to lose. I think the winner of that match will beat the winner of Alucard/Sora fairly easily. Tidus/Shadow type match at worst. Snake/Alucard is what I want to see for my bracket, but Zelda/Alucard would probably be the most interesting, for obvious reasons. So as long as Sora loses I'll be happy.

Now, it gets interesting if Zelda takes the Gear Division. Of the three possible Dream champions, I'd still only pick one to beat Snake: Bowser. And Bowser/Zelda is a very intriguing match, that depends entirely on which way SFF falls, given that they should be near equals. I'd guess it favors Bowser, simply because he is so much more developed and supported by his fanbase, as shown by his very close relation to Mario. Zelda is pretty far from Link, and I don't think she'd fare much better against him than Ganondorf did. I know LoZ is generally better than Mario here, but there are exceptions. SMB3 > LoZ, for instance, and I think Bowser/Zelda would be another.

Should Ryu win the division, he should give Zelda a very good match. But, if Zelda beats Snake she shouldn't be all that far away from Sonic, and we saw how that match went. Should Tidus somehow get out of Dream I don't think he stands much of a chance. I would never pick Tidus over Snake, what with them having common opponents, and if Zelda beats Snake that would seal the deal for me.

So I think Zelda has an excellent shot at Snake, and Bowser is the Dream character with the best chance of beating her in the Elite Eight if she does. And then the winner gets pummeled by Mario or Samus.
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Summer Contest 2005: 9/9
Today: Vivi, Tomorrow: Alucard

And just like I'm not ready to buy Zelda > Snake yet, for that matter.

However, I really don't have a problem with Riku being that close to Sora (and I think Sora probably increased anyway. A game that sold well on a Nintendo console, which likely exposed him to even more people, gives him reason to do so).
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Match 11: (3) Kratos vs. (6) Alucard Tepes

Past Performance

Kratos

Summer 2002
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2003
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2004
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Alucard Tepes

Summer 2002
Beat Miles “Tails” Prower, 54.32% - 45.68%
Beat Duke Nukem, 61.51% - 38.49%
Lost to Cloud Strife, 30.36% - 69.64%
Ranked: 26th

Summer 2003
Beat Bomberman, 64.46% - 35.54%
Beat Kirby, 52.21% - 47.79%
Lost to Sephiroth, 27.72% - 72.28%
Ranked: 22nd

Summer 2004
Lost to Ganondorf Dragmire, 42.84% - 57.16%
Ranked: 59th

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Analysis

First of all I will like to welcome one of the newest characters that this contest has seen with God of War only being released a couple of months ago. Alucard of the other hand has seen a lot of contest action with two Sweet 16 appearances and doing better then expected against Ganondorf last year. Don’t let his 2k4’s ranking fool you because in round 2 Link SFF Ganondorf so badly that even CATS did better against him. Alucard is the clear favorite, but vocal Kratos fans have been speaking out.

Kratos may have had a game released not too long ago and that may have given him enough nominations to be in the contest with a three seed, but that won’t translate into him being super strong. Last year the only reason Tanner made it in was because of his new game being released over the nomination period and that didn’t help him. Also to a lesser extent because of the newness of San Andreas most of us thought CJ would beat Ness. The biggest reason I can think of was that not many people owned San Andreas and therefore wouldn’t know CJ, this can also make Kratos weaker, but I’m almost sure that he’ll gain more strength if he were to make it to the contest next year (same goes to CJ).

Nothing much has happened on Alucard’s side of the table. The only Castlevania game that is getting some kind of hype is the one coming out for the DS later this year. So we expect him to be around the same strength this year, but then again he did gain in 2k4 with not much help at all. So that leads to the next question, could Ganondorf have dropped and Alucard didn’t gain from anything. Well no because with Ganondorf’s match with Yuna a few days ago he performed around what is expected minus the help Yuna gotten from Final Fantasy X2.

With that all said and down, what will Kratos get against Alucard? Like I said I don’t expect much from him this year since many people still don’t own God of War or heard of Kratos. Also despite Alucard being somewhat a cult character I do expect him to break 60% against Kratos. Hopefully Kratos will show up next year to prove to us that he could be stronger and hopefully cause an upset.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Alucard Tepes over Kratos

charmander6000’s Prediction: Alucard wins, 63.23% - 36.77%

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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

Not to say Riku didn't impress or isn't strong, though; I just don't accept Riku > Yoshi yet.

There's nothing wrong with Riku being that strong. Like somebody said, Kingdom Hearts is this generations Final Fantasy 7. It's probably the most popular Square game this generation. I even think it's more popular than FFX now. And KH2 will be FAR better than FFX-2. That being said, Sora and Riku deserve to be as strong as they appear.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Even after Cloud/Sonic, the only reason people still thought Link had it won was because he won definitively the year before; people had realized the power Cloud was packing. With Riku, we don't have other matches to compare him with and we DO have reason to be skeptical, although the reason of rSFF would almost-certainly be the first of its kind.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I think this is mostly a combination of Sephiroth dropping in 2k4 as opposed to being SFFd and Vivi overperforming against Sephy. Yes, overperforming. Of course, the weaknesses of using voting block transitivity are coming out in full swing this contest, it seems. Zelda is no slouch, though, and Snake's been asking for an embarrassment for a while, I'd say, but we'll just have to wait and see if it happens or not.
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Currently: 9/10 | Next: Alucard
Let no one doubt the flawlessness of the plan.

I really don't see any reason to be skeptical unless you're still a proponent of the 20XX adjustment (or you don't believe Frog overperformed on Snake, one or the other). Riku is undoubtedly a big fan favorite with the KH fanbase, and he was playable in Chain of Memories, from what I understand.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Heh, people are still taking Zelda's strength as is even though we've seen similar matches like Mega Man/Tidus and Samus/Sam Fisher that made Mega Man and Samus look like ultra-powerhouses? We saw how they fell back to earth eventually...

Like I said before, I think this is just a linearity breach. Like I said before, I seriously doubt that Vivi dropped in popularity as he has no reason to. We just need to see DK in action.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I know LoZ is generally better than Mario here, but there are exceptions. SMB3 > LoZ, for instance, and I think Bowser/Zelda would be another.

At the same time, look at what LoZ:OoT did to SM64...and consider the roles Bowser/Zelda had in SMB3/LoZ to SM64/LoZ:OoT; they TALKED, were seen multiple times in each of their 64-bit games, and showed more development. It's possible that people were able to like their 3D characters a good bit more than their 2D characters.

More devil's advocate here than serious thought, FYI, though I'm still half-serious about this.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Characters =/= Games, yo

And OoT is more beloved with the fanbase than Mario 64 is, as Mario 3 is more beloved than the original LoZ, but that goes without saying.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Right, but I do think that the roles Bowser/Zelda have in their 3D games are more important to how much people like them than what their 2D games did for them.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Bowser's likeability comes more from the RPGs than anywhere else, I would imagine.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

if that's true, he's in trouble.
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vote for vivi.

Which, outside of SMRPG (the same SMRPG that ranks the lowest of all Mario games in the Game Contest outside of SFF'd SM64), Mario RPG's are 64-bit and up.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Well, that's that one GBA game, Mario & Luigi: Super Star Saga or something like that...but I think my point is made still.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

*Well, THERE'S that one...
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Mario & Luigi:SS is the BEST Mario RPG, if but for the game play alone. SMRPG had the more interesting story and characters though.

Paper Mario and Paper Mario 2 were borefests...
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Bowser's likeability comes more from the RPGs than anywhere else, I would imagine.

that's why i love Bowser so much. it sure as heck isn't because of the repetitive boss fights in SMB1. >_>

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

True or False:

Alucard won't break 60%.

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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME

Gear Division Round 1 - Match 11 – (3)Kratos vs. (6)Alucard

Kratos
Game/Series Known From: God of War
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: N/A
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: N/A
Seed in 2004: N/A

Kratos surely raked in those noms. He lands a 3-seed in his first Contest.

Alucard
Game/Series Known From: Castlevania
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: 26th (22.70%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 22nd (27.56%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 59th (10.37%) Adjusted Value: 19th (27.74%)
Seed in 2002: 6
Seed in 2003: 6
Seed in 2004: 9
Lost in 2002 to Cloud in the Sweet 16
Lost in 2003 to Sephiroth in the Sweet 16
Lost in 2004 to Ganondorf in Round 1

Another Contest vet is back. Alucard still can’t get a high seed, but at least he can make it in the Contest year after year, unlike a certain flower girl.

Another newbie trap match. Bracket newbies are going to see Kratos from God of War, a game that just came out and is popular with the casuals, vs. Alucard from the more cult Castlevania series. Poor casuals, they’re brackets are going to look so bad this year thanks to traps like these. Oh well, only better placings for us vets. I surely am not crying over that.

Anyway, Kratos would have to be darn strong in order to take down Alucard. Now, he is strong in his game, beating up gods and stuff, but Contest strength =/= game strength…though that would be interesting. I mean, Conker would have destroyed Yoshi.

~*Yoshi vs. Conker*~

Yoshi: Yoshi! *licks Conker*

Conker: What the ****? I don’t do that ****, Yosh. *fires bullets at Yoshi, killing him*



Kefka would have murdered Pac-Man…

~*Kefka vs. Pac-Man*~

Pac-Man: Wakka Wakka Wakka…*eats up dots*

Kefka: I HATE HATE HATE HATE YOU! *kills Pac-Man with the sand from his boots*



And Gordon would SO beat KOS-MOS…

~*Gordon vs. KOS-MOS*~

Gordon: Hold on a minute, I was never in a match with KO-

*KOS-MOS fires thousands of bullets, grenades, and any other thing that goes boom at Gordon*



Oh wait, Gordon Freeman never wins!

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Alucard will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Kratos: 41% - Alucard: 59%



Ulti’s Analysis

To the board, this match seems relatively obvious, and it pretty much is. Kratos is from a recent action hit that has had rave reviews all over the internet despite relatively low sales; reminds me of Viewtiful Joe's plight last year, actually.

However, while Alucard will likely win with ease due to him being stronger than Dante (and I highly doubt that Kratos will be stronger than Dante), Kratos could surprise with him being so recent. Alucard failing to escape the 55-56% range would not surprise me in the least.

Prediction: Alucard with 56.03%



Inviso’s Analysis

This match is all in accordance to the plan. Alucard has been in ever contest, and although he may not do well in terms of the number of rounds he goes through, he makes up for it in the x-stats. Kratos is a contest newbie this time around, hot off the hype of his new God of War game, heralded to be the best game for the Playstation 2 thus far. Kratos may be strong in his game, and the game itself may be popular, but here on Gamefaqs, games like Castlevania are worshipped like demi-Gods. God of War is no Driv3r (Oooh, they made it cool by having a number within a word) but it won’t be enough to push Kratos over Alucard, even though Kratos would kicked Alucard’s monkey ass in a real fight.

My Bracket: Alucard
My Vote: Kratos (God of War)
My Prediction: Alucard with 65.89%

I'm gonna go with true; I think Kratos can get 41%.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

False
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

Soul’s Analysis

This is another match where it's being hyped to be a close one, but really, it isn't.

Kratos, I'm predicting, is going to be the next Viewtiful Joe. A character with no past contest history and no clue on where he would rank. Looking like Viewtiful Joe already... In case you didn't notice, Kratos is from God of War, a relatively new PS2 game. It has sold a lot, I'm sure. Kratos is somewhat known, I guess, although I've never played his game.

Alucard, on the other hand, has been in all the Summer Contests. He has proven that he is a very strong competitor in these things. In 2002, he surprised a lot of people with his win over Tails, and followed up with a huge win over Duke Nukem. He followed up by getting 30% on Cloud Strife. Pretty impressive. In 2003, he went on to defeat both Bomberman and Kirby, before bowing out to Sephiroth. Of course, we all know what happened in 2004, so I won't even go there.

Take the safe bet people, you won't regret it. Alucard is top of the midcarders. It will take quite a performance by Kratos to win this match.

My prediction: Alucard wins with 62.40% of the vote. Alucard gets a little bit of revenge after his loss to Ganondorf in Round 1 last year.



Outback’s Analysis

Another bland first round match. Kratos will make this look closer than many people think, mainly because his new release will bring some fans to the table, and his high side should get him some bracket support.

Alucard with 56.78%



Tnote’s Analysis

God of War is one kick ass game, but sadly I think the majority of the voting pool will not have had the chance to play it. Kratos will not pull a Viewtiful Joe here and tank, but I think it is silly to think he will have enough support to take out a proven vet like Alucard, another of the many characters who cheat us gamers by not making more appearances in current-gen games. I see Kratos as having a ceiling somewhere around 2k3 Tommy Vercetti, which is not quite enough to make a run at Alucard. He should be able to keep the match respectable, and ultimately rank towards the top of the new entrants, but a first round exit is immanent.

Pick: Alucard with 58.27%



Vlado’s Analysis

Okay, here we go! It's Alucard's first match! His win against Kratos is out of any doubt, as it's all a part of the plan. Anyway, Kratos is from a new PS2 game that has been quite successful lately. However, by what I see, people have pretty much played it and moved on. If the nominations took place right now, I doubt he'd get more than a 5th seed. CJ, the hero of an even more popular recent PS2 game, lost to one of the weakest links in contest history, Ness. I think that was the final proof that was needed. Kratos stands no chance here. I believe he will be around Sam Fisher's level in strength.

Alucard is a well-established contest veteran that made the last 16 in 2002 and 2003, only to get screwed by an immensely unfair seeding in 2004, where he lost in the first round to Ganondorf. He's a very strong contestant and I believe that he can make the Sweet 16 this year, too. Personally, I think his first task is a walk in the park. Want another interesting fact? Alucard has actually been getting stronger in the stats each year. Despite losing in Round 1, last year's SFF-adjusted X-Stats suggest that he was over 2% stronger than in 2003. I believe he's much like Crono in this aspect - more and more people hear about his excellent game, play it, love it and vote for him. I hope this pattern continues and he's even stronger this year. That would certainly provide us with even more entertainment than what Alucard is usually capable of.

Predicted percentage: Alucard with 73.18%.

True or False:

Alucard won't break 60%.

False. He'll do it.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Predicted percentage: Alucard with 73.18%.


The hell? Oh, wait Vlado said it, no surprise.

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I HAVE FURY!

I'd call Vlado insane but that didn't work out so well yesterday.
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Summer Contest 2005: 9/9
Today: Vivi, Tomorrow: Alucard

False...
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That's right. Cloud N. Candy would get a NEGATIVE percentage, and RPGuy's extrapolated calculator would crash. - therealmnm

True. Kratos might even push for 45%.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/10 points
Current Match Prediction: Kratos (God of War) vs. Alucard

Oh, and a few pages ago someone asked where they could find my stats. If you want them, let me know and I'll email them to you. It's a giant 19 tab Excel file which probably won't make sense to anyone but me, but I'd gladly give it to anyone that wants it.
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Summer Contest 2005: 9/9
Today: Vivi, Tomorrow: Alucard

45%? That's pushin'; I wouldn't take Kratos over Tails.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Kratos' high seeding is what's really causing me concern. CJ only managed a 5 seeding while Kratos got a 3... I'd like to think 45% is a possibility.

///
I simply must say I'm completely out of ideas for a sig!

The 2k4 stats have Alucard > Dante, 54-46? WTH.

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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME

I don't trust that.

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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME

I want Kratos to win tomorrow. If there is a diety up there... he will. Down with the albino pimp!

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 10/10 (empty slots in brackets suck)

45%? Whoa..
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Bracket: Zelda - Vote: Zelda - Points: 8/9

Well, the 2k4 stats seem unreliable at best.
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Summer Contest 2005: 9/9
Today: Vivi, Tomorrow: Alucard

I think Kratos will get 44% on Alucard, myself.

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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME