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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 173
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:24:51 PM | Message Detail
i'll agree there. Zelda's sprite isn't much to look at:

Luckily, she has a sprite from A Link to the Past that works much better.

forget seeing Zelda in the Final Four - how messed up would it be to see SORA in the Final Four?

Sora isn't going to make the Final Four considering he'll lose to Alucard. Not to mention that he'd lose to Zelda or Bowser before making it there.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:27:50 PM | Message Detail
You mean Snake or Ryu.

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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:27:55 PM | Message Detail
Luckily, she has a sprite from A Link to the Past that works much better.

Yeah, but that's not her 8-bit sprite.

I still say Snake's sprite from Ghost Babel would be ideal.
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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:32:39 PM | Message Detail
Alucard's plan may take motion when he beats Snake this year. Alucard is undefeated in matches from the Elite 8 or later rounds. When he beats Snake it's going to be smooth sailing.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:36:25 PM | Message Detail
Not great Snake sprites... but better than the **** Ceej gave him.

http://www.genvid.com/TGTN/snake_sheet.png

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It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:38:53 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, but that's not her 8-bit sprite.

Who in the world said we were limited to 8-bit sprites?

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:40:24 PM | Message Detail
Going by the X-Stats, Sora's the second favorite for that final four spot, and he got a new game since last year, and has a new one coming out this fall. So it's not out of the realm of possibility that Sora could be in the final four this year... but I don't find it likely.

Bowser, Zelda, Sora, Snake, and even Tidus have stats pointing to the fact that they have a final four opportunity here. These two divisions should be interesting in later rounds.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:41:35 PM | Message Detail
I would cry tears of joy if Sora was in the final 4.
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:42:30 PM | Message Detail
Who in the world said we were limited to 8-bit sprites?

Yeah, last year we had quite a few 16-bit sprites.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:42:32 PM | Message Detail
It would suck more than you can possibly imagine if Sora even thought about approaching the Final Four.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:43:14 PM | Message Detail
Second favorite? Which X-Stats are you using?
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Karma Hunter | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:43:16 PM | Message Detail
I'm still saying he's not getting it. Otherwise, Zelda is getting her 8-bit sprite, too, which isn't all that pretty in its own right.

i'll agree there. Zelda's sprite isn't much to look at:

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I'm about to get sigged by Karma Hunter, and all I'll get is this lousy T-shirt.--Clockwork Dragon
From: LagunaMG | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:51:46 PM | Message Detail
There's nothing at all to suggest CJayC would use Zelda's 8-bit sprite. That was an assumption and nothing more. It's far more likely that he would use the more noticeable ALttP sprite in that match.

I don't know where the idea was that Zelda was going to have her 8-bit sprite.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:52:36 PM | Message Detail
http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/9899/nakedvivi3yo.jpg

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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:53:32 PM | Message Detail
Second favorite? Which X-Stats are you using?

*shrugs* My guess for Sora at this point is that he's at least equal to the number we have for Frog at this point (around 29% on Link) after what we saw with Riku. So we know that he can at least pull very close to Snake. All the rest of the lot in these two divisions is extremely screwed up statswise, due to the spring contest or 2k4 anomalies, so I can't really figure out where they should stand... but there are lots of estimations that put all of em below that 29% mark.

Perhaps the X-Stats don't completely support it, I should have checked that more. But I really think that Sora will give Snake his closest match. If you think Snake's going to make it through that division and get to the final four, there's not much room for anyone to do better against him than what we have Sora at.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:53:51 PM | Message Detail
Snake isn't getting that crappy sprite for the third year in a row, I can guarantee it. It's so imbalanced because it doesn't even resemble...well, anything.

If you want it to even look like a battle picture, you're going to have to give Snake a MGS picture.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:53:59 PM | Message Detail
If Sora made the final 4.... well my entire wardrobe from the waist down would be white. Pure ****ing White.

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It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:55:17 PM | Message Detail
http://www.northcastle.co.uk/archive/vault/vault_sprites.html

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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:58:20 PM | Message Detail
What was the adjustment for the 2k4 standings that would have put Sora and Frog equal?
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:02:53 PM | Message Detail
And nobody's mentioning Ryu? I have Ryu taking Dream, then losing to Snake. How would Ryu perform against Snake now?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/10 points
Current Match Prediction: Kratos (God of War) vs. Alucard
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:04:47 PM | Message Detail
We've got no clue.

Snake beat Ryu 58-42 two years ago. This year, he's projected to beat him something like 53-47.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: LagunaMG | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:06:17 PM | Message Detail
What was the adjustment for the 2k4 standings that would have put Sora and Frog equal?

That's without any adjustment. It puts Sora ahead of Frog by 0.01%.

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“Yeah, sure. I always see it. But… who cares? I speak with passion, from the heart! That’s what matters most.”
Laguna Loire
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:07:27 PM | Message Detail
Hmm.

And that's looking like it might be true.

I think Snake may be screwed.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:09:12 PM | Message Detail
I tend to think that Frog just had a fluke vs Snake. Lavos got a mere 6% less than Frog did vs Liquid. So, on my lines of thinking, Sora's fine just where he is. Master Chief will likely be the only one who will keep his mighty 30%ish rating this year. And about Riku...

Who here would consider taking Riku over Sora? Riku fans seem to greatly outnumber Sora fans, seems like a hawt upset pick to me.

Then again... Crono/Magus. Hmmm...
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:10:23 PM | Message Detail
Since that adjustment brings him down to 27% and makes him beatable by Zelda, Sora, Alucard, Ryu, Bowser, and possibly Tidus. I'm starting to think more and more that Snake pulling through to the final four is unlikely.

I mean, it could happen. The X-Stats have been wrong before, and they were especially sketchy last year. But with what's happened so far, it's either the stats are wrong and Snake's still Noble Nine, or the stats are right and Snake is going down very soon.

Liquid and Ocelot's performances didn't help matters.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Mumei | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:12:07 PM | Message Detail
Only behind by 2,261 at 17:10, which means that it has been keeping pace for the last 4 hours.

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Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:12:29 PM | Message Detail
Well, unless Manny is noticeably weaker than Guybrush, Snake has at least improved upon his 2004 number.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:12:39 PM | Message Detail
Yeah. Riku>Sora, Auron>Tidus, and Kratos>Lloyd make so much sense when we look at the games' fanbases, but after last year's SFF extravanganza, particularly the fan favorite, popular villain getting doubled and more by the mute hero, it's tough to believe any of that.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:13:23 PM | Message Detail
Vivi 40% 33894
Zelda 60% 50831
TOTAL VOTES 84725

And it's down to 60/40.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:13:54 PM | Message Detail
Vivi 40% 33923
Zelda 60% 50878
TOTAL VOTES 84801
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:14:52 PM | Message Detail
True. Thing is, my original impression when I saw Manny in the bracket was, "Hey, another Guybrush."

And for some reason, Snake seems to be good at whaling on fodder. I doubt Tanner is quite as horrendous as the X-Stats show him to be in 2k4, meaning Snake beat him by more than he probably should have and still had a rough year of it overall.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:17:01 PM | Message Detail
*sees Vivi above 40%*

How despicable. ;_;
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:31:37 PM | Message Detail
Crono actually does have a fanbase though, for some ridiculous reason. Even though he's outnumbered by Magus fans here, they do exist. Same with Tidus:Auron. (nix the ridiculous reason, of course)

I wouldn't soon take Kratos over Lloyd. Lloyd is the "main character" and plus he's got a decent fanbase of his own. Most ToS players almost exclusively use Lloyd it seems, because he's so fun in battle.

Riku > Sora is the most tempting to me, simply because I've seen about 1 or 2 vocal Sora supporters around here... even last year when he lost to Samus. In the one day Riku was losing, I saw way more supporters for him. Then again, maybe when Sora loses to Alucard we'll see more Sora fans emerge. I'll wait until then
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:34:15 PM | Message Detail
And yes, I know this board isn't the place to look for overall support, but I think it can give a hint of how SFFable a character is if a character has many haters present, or no/very few supporters.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:35:02 PM | Message Detail
And for some reason, Snake seems to be good at whaling on fodder. I doubt Tanner is quite as horrendous as the X-Stats show him to be in 2k4, meaning Snake beat him by more than he probably should have and still had a rough year of it overall.

Well, he doesn't have to deal with Nintendo or Square anti-votes. He's also a character with a lot of personality so he doesn't have to deal with people who anti-vote characters without it. And the fact that just about everyone who played any MGS games likes Snake helps.
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I need to put something here.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:35:36 PM | Message Detail
Really, don't base anything off what you see on this board. It just means that fans of a certain character might be more "hardcore" per se, and thus will be more vocal. Tidus has plenty of fans, but they don't appear to be overly vocal. Same with Sora.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: LordOfDabu | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:36:25 PM | Message Detail
The only reason some of those secondary characters appear to have more fans on this board is because this board promotes bandwagons, and people will claim (and maybe even convince themselves) that character B is greater than character A simply because such a statement was made by one of the elites of this board.

A great example of this was when someone hosted a best game ever tournament earlier this spring, but used an external site to tally votes. The voting trends were drastically different than what they typically are on this board, simply because the voter didn't have to actually say who they were voting for on the board.
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LordOfDabu.nS)
To be defeated by us is an honor.
From: Tai | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:37:53 PM | Message Detail
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:54:28 PM | Message Detail
Alucard is beating Sora man.


The only thing Alucard is beating is his **** after seeing vampire porn.

Also, Ecks Dee to Zelda falling under 60%. The Zelda > Snake pickers are losing their grips. :-)
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (203 Signs!)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:38:26 PM | Message Detail
That's true. Regardless of whether people want to admit it or not, what other people say or think (especially when it's someone perceived to be popular or when it's someone that person looks up to) can have an influence on your "public" opinion, even if it's different from your "private" opinion.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:38:47 PM | Message Detail
Thing is, even though they're not overly vocal, I've noticed plenty of Tidus fans on this board. I'm not saying he'd have no chance against Auron at all. I wouldn't be so hasty to choose Auron.

Sora's fans... I can think of like... Partystar.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Tai | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:41:03 PM | Message Detail
The only reason some of those secondary characters appear to have more fans on this board is because this board promotes bandwagons, and people will claim (and maybe even convince themselves) that character B is greater than character A simply because such a statement was made by one of the elites of this board.

Yeah, CJ/Ness made the board look like morons. Like Jak, Shadow, and Sora over Ryu Hayasuba. XD

Also, speaking of board hype, where were people getting that the board supported Vivi over Zelda? The BOP has Zelda by a overwhelming amount. What about the TP hype?
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (203 Signs!)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:42:20 PM | Message Detail
Well, as Dabu mentioned, being a Sora fan wouldn't exactly be considered popular by this board as he is generally disliked. People who like him might keep that to themselves.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 7/28/2005 5:43:19 PM | Message Detail
SORA!!!!!!! ^________^

I'm not embarrased about my level of masculinity!!!!

>_>
<_<
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:23:11 PM | Message Detail
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:06:34 AM | Message Detail

*throws an "I told you so" brick at the stats topic, Godfather style*


*Gets hit on the head with the "I told you so" brick"

DAYUM, while I wasn't very vocal about it, I was silently yelling that anyone who picked Zelda with over 55% was crazy.


From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:54:17 AM | Message Detail
I sure love it when the stats crap all over themselves. I can just imagine Leonhart tucked away in an underground lair, brooding over pieces of paper and yelling "THESE NUMBERS!!! THEY MAKE NO SENSE!!!!"


Replace Leonhart in the above with me.

I had Zelda from day one, but then after looking over my numbers far too many times, I convinced myself to switch to Vivi near lockdown. I had actually been holding off on switching because I'd wanted to be on the top 50, but it ended up not mattering due to Ness/CJ (and I think that had I not switched, I wouldn't have been in the top 50 anyway). So, when I switched that pick, I also switched my Vincent over Squall pick to Squall over Vincent pick. I think that the winner of Squall/Magus should beat Vincent, so my switches will end up getting me +3 points in the best case, -1 in the worst case.

On another note, Zelda is going to give Snake the fight for his life. I'm not prepared to call it either way, but unless there was a serious anomoly in today's match, the winner probably won't have more than 53-54%. It would make me very happy to see Zelda get 49.99%, though if she does win I think Bowser will still be able to take her out (I have Bowser over Snake).
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:38:17 PM | Message Detail
Vivi 40.13% 36115
Zelda 59.87% 53886
TOTAL VOTES 90001
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/10 points
Current Match Prediction: Kratos (God of War) vs. Alucard
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:38:40 PM | Message Detail
Vivi 40.13% 36114
Zelda 59.87% 53886
TOTAL VOTES 90000
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:05:51 PM | Message Detail

A great example of this was when someone hosted a best game ever tournament earlier this spring, but used an external site to tally votes. The voting trends were drastically different than what they typically are on this board, simply because the voter didn't have to actually say who they were voting for on the board.


Eesh, I would hope people aren't afraid to voice their opinions on a message board.

And I'm a Sora fan, not a huge one, but I probably do like Riku better; he's just cooler.

But Sora would still beat Riku. Sora's pretty dorky at times, but he's not that bad that I'd say he's hated by Kh fans, whereas Riku would get all the love.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:24:23 PM | Message Detail
The problem here, and why Vivi isn't going to make a comeback, is because he isn't listed as Master Vivi like he should be. If that were the case Vivi would be about to make the hugest comeback ever.

He he he.


Lloyd's got no chance, but he will do much better than Wesker implies, I guarantee it.

I'll agree with that...to a degree. He'll do better than Wesker implies, yes, but I wouldn't say MUCH better.


So, after this match, no doubt at all in my mind that I'd pick Zelda over Ganondorf if they were to meet.

I'd still take Ganon, but it'd be an interesting one.


how messed up would it be to see SORA in the Final Four?

If Sora doesn't have to face Tidus, he very well could make the Final Four.


Alucard is undefeated in matches from the Elite 8 or later rounds.

Don't think I didn't catch that.


What was the adjustment for the 2k4 standings that would have put Sora and Frog equal?

To my memory, none; it shows that with completely unadjusted stats.


Who here would consider taking Riku over Sora? Riku fans seem to greatly outnumber Sora fans, seems like a hawt upset pick to me.

Considering Frog's unadjusted stats have Frog = Sora and Riku got 48.33% on Frog, then considering that very well could have been our first case of rSFF due to the generational difference, and let's not forget how the hero is generally stronger than the side-kick...taking Riku over Sora would be a bad upset.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: daverath | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:30:03 PM | Message Detail
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:38:17 PM | Message Detail
Vivi 40.13% 36115
Zelda 59.87% 53886
TOTAL VOTES 90001
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/10 points
Current Match Prediction: Kratos (God of War) vs. Alucard

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:38:40 PM | Message Detail
Vivi 40.13% 36114
Zelda 59.87% 53886
TOTAL VOTES 90000



OMG! Vivi got the 90001st vote! I smell a comeback.


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http://wow.allakhazam.com/profile.html?115025
60 priest
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:35:42 PM | Message Detail
then considering that very well could have been our first case of rSFF due to the generational difference

Stop throwing this around until it's definite. rSFF is a myth (and an extremely shaky one) until proven otherwise.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
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