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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 173
From: Dranze | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:41:12 PM | Message Detail
According to my stats, Jill would only Double Gordon, but for Gordon to be tripled, Leon would have to be around say, Sora's level.

Nonetheless, I have to give Gordon Freeman a small bit of increase too.
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Bracket: Zelda - Vote: Zelda - Points: 8/9
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:42:50 PM | Message Detail
If by "way behind" you mean "a few %". Not that it matters much, the X-Stats predicted this to actually be close. Who knows where Zelda actually is. Maybe Mega Man "old school SFFed her"!

Get that old school SFF outta here. That should only apply to Pac-Man, since ALL he has is old school appeal.

The 2003 stats project Ganon to beat Zelda with over 56%. I couldn't see her gaining that much ground on him.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:43:04 PM | Message Detail
Leon won't break 60% on Gordon.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:43:49 PM | Message Detail
If by "way behind" you mean "a few %". Not that it matters much, the X-Stats predicted this to actually be close. Who knows where Zelda actually is. Maybe Mega Man "old school SFFed her"!

Oh yeah... watch out boy.


That's MY theory thief!!!
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: voltch | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:44:53 PM | Message Detail
in a gordon vs cats match who would win and how much board activity would there be?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:46:01 PM | Message Detail
...Actually, I called an "old school SFF" in Luigi/Pac-Man last year when it happened, to explain the disparity in the stats between Kefka and Pac-Man after only one year.

I think it's ridiculous to apply it anywhere else though.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:46:17 PM | Message Detail
That's so my theory, Master Mage! I will take no more of your lies! *slaps MM with a glove*
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:47:27 PM | Message Detail
Gordon would easily defeat CATS. There would probably be a lot of hype leading up to the match, but it would die down during the day, since no one would have realistically expected CATS to challenge Gordon.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: kinsho3 | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:47:44 PM | Message Detail
he[Leon] is the most popular RE character.

Perhaps, but he would struggle like all hell against Jill.

And a 4 vs. 5 match with Gordon Freeman and CATS would rock. If that match were to occur, I'd have to go with Gordon. Board activity would be at a high point. Vote totals, meanwhile, would be at a low point.
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:50:05 PM | Message Detail
I'd take CATS, despite what most think, getting 45% on Ansem is no joke. Well, okay, it's a joke, but I'm not sure Gordon Freeman could manage it. I know I'd take Ansem over Freeman.

But my chances would be shot if they did full body pics, I think.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Mumei | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:58:07 PM | Message Detail
Current match is only 2,173 behind Ganondorf vs. Yuna. ^_^

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Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:12:50 PM | Message Detail
Continuing our tradition of unexpected results, I'm calling for at least 43% for Kratos tomorrow, and less than 80% for Sora against Agent 47.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:15:20 PM | Message Detail
and less than 80% for Sora against Agent 47.

I thought that was just logical thinking.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:15:25 PM | Message Detail
My unexpected results predictions:

1) Kratos will get around 44-45% on Alucard.
2) Tifa will double Vyse.
3) Leon will triple Gordon.
4) Ocelot will pull a Kefka and struggle with Pac-Man.
5) Luigi will struggle with KOS-MOS.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/10 points
Current Match Prediction: Kratos (God of War) vs. Alucard
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:16:26 PM | Message Detail
2 and 5 are expected, I think. Well, Luigi may not struggle with KOS-MOS, per se, but he shouldn't blow her out.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:20:38 PM | Message Detail
The unexpected result in Sora's match will be that he'll get 90%.

And Zelda's lead went from 13,541 to 13,558, in 5 minutes. ;_;
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:21:34 PM | Message Detail
The odds of Sora breaking 90% are slim to none.

Which means he'll probably do it.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:23:15 PM | Message Detail
It'll be hilarious if Sora becomes one of the few to break 90% on a character. That will mean Agent 47 is weaker than Tanner.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/10 points
Current Match Prediction: Kratos (God of War) vs. Alucard
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:23:43 PM | Message Detail
If then trend of partystar's favorite characters doing better than expected continues, then he could do it.

Riku, Yuna, Zelda, and now Sora. And RIKKU! >_>
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: AmazingKirby | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:25:01 PM | Message Detail
Sora wouldn't even break 90 on Tanner? Hmm...
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I know what I'm getting into, I don't care if I die trying!-Peppita Rossetti
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:27:46 PM | Message Detail
"Regardless, perhaps adjusting DK by his 2003 number wasn't the brightest idea since it's the ONLY year where he has a definite number."

We never adjusted Vivi and Dk in the 2k4 stats.
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"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:29:51 PM | Message Detail
We never adjusted Vivi and Dk in the 2k4 stats.

Creative's stats don't show it (nor do they account for both years of Auron's SFF), but RPGuy's made the adjustment.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:33:19 PM | Message Detail
Well, he mostly keeps those to himself. Besides, IIRC when I checked DK was only off by like .8% if we left DK unadjusted. Can't really remember though.
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"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: transience | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:37:19 PM | Message Detail
are RPGuy's stats posted anywhere? I'd be rather curious to see them.
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vote for vivi.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:43:57 PM | Message Detail
Besides, IIRC when I checked DK was only off by like .8% if we left DK unadjusted.

I'm pretty sure it was more than that. Otherwise, we wouldn't have bothered making an adjustment.

Actually, it was only that small if Sephy 2k4 = Sephy 2k3, if I recall correctly, which is part of the reason we didn't adjust in the first place.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:44:14 PM | Message Detail
New sig.

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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME
From: Prometheus321 | Posted: 7/28/2005 2:24:33 PM | Message Detail
With Nintendo characters alll looking like powerhouses so far this year, is there a chance Kirby could beat Tidus?
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VOTE: BOWSER
From: transience | Posted: 7/28/2005 2:26:19 PM | Message Detail
well, Kirby ain't Zelda and Tidus is a little stronger than Vivi. that said, I changed my Kirby > Tidus back to Tidus > Kirby on the second to last day. it's possible, but not probable.

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vote for vivi.
From: Gooper Blooper | Posted: 7/28/2005 2:50:20 PM | Message Detail
Looking at what's happened so far, I bet Kirby wins with 70% of the vote and then ties with Bowser.

That's just how weird this contest is.
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Chun-Li > Bowser book it - lol_internet
Vote for Kirby in SC2K5!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 2:51:49 PM | Message Detail
Kirby winning the division would be awesome. Unfortunately, the odds are against him.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/28/2005 2:54:24 PM | Message Detail
I'd throw away 2 points to see Kirby win. I'm tired of seeing Tidus beat, or almost beat my favorite characters. (Shadow, Ganon, and now Kirby)

If Kirby won, my faith in GameFAQs tastes sould be...slightly higher.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Vivi vs. Zelda- Bracket: Zelda - Vote: Zelda (8/9)
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/28/2005 2:59:13 PM | Message Detail
If Kirby beats Tidus, I'll be pissed since I was one of the first to jump on the Kirby upset wagon, and then I changed my mind.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:02:58 PM | Message Detail
Well, Tidus and Kirby are my #2 and #3, respectively. I can be happy either way knowing that at least ONE of them made it past the second round, for once. Unfortunately, it can only be one of them.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:07:47 PM | Message Detail
I'd love to see Kirby own Tidus.

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A E OUTBACK OWNS ME
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:11:13 PM | Message Detail
The more I think about it, the more I fear that the fluke is Vivi's matches last year, not this year . . . and Kuja proves it. For whatever reason, it just seems like the voters don't care about FFIX. But it just doesn't make any sense for her to be this strong.
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I need to put something here.
From: Prometheus321 | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:18:03 PM | Message Detail
If Kirby beats Tidus, I'll be pissed since I was one of the first to jump on the Kirby upset wagon, and then I changed my mind.

I'm with you on that one. I had Kirby for the longest time and then changed it over to Tidus because of all the hype of a Bowser vs Tidus match.

I just want the Dream Division to hurry up and get here so I can have so more concrete information.
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VOTE: BOWSER
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:18:06 PM | Message Detail
Just to note we are farther away from a match that could even possibly have an upset right now then we will be at any point of the Tournament. Nine days until Kefka/Tommy.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: armitage999 | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:20:43 PM | Message Detail
I don't see Tommy beating Kefka. It's not going to be a blowout, but Kefka should put up 55% on him.

I've said CJ would pummel Ness, too. :P
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Vote every day in the NCAA Character Battle 2005 contest!
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:22:36 PM | Message Detail
I think that the line "I cast the spells that makes the people fall down." was mentioned in this topic earlier and I seriously spent forever trying to remember where that came from. Then I remembered. 8 Bit Theater back when it was funny.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:26:24 PM | Message Detail
I think this match pretty much confirms that Cloud didn't SFF Sephiroth at all last year, and that he did indeed drop.

But yeah, when a character is involved with potential SFF, their true strength is a mystery. Donkey Kong and Sephiroth have always been oddballs, so perhaps Vivi's placement was misjudged.

The thing is, I think DK actually increased in 2003. I don't see Aya being in the upper half of the stats in 2002, and I don't see Bub being Vyse's equal. Perhaps he benefitted from GTA anti-votes against Vercetti or something.

Actually, I just tried messing around with the stats a little bit. Setting Terry 2004 equal to Terry 2002, it moves Aya Brea down to 20.04% on Link, which in turn brings DK down to 20.47% on Link. Basing Vivi off of that value, he's at 23.51% on Link (just below 2k3 Yuna). Based on Zelda 2003, she would be projected to win with 61.19%.

Of course, a lot of that relies on DK being much stronger in 2003 than in either year, for whatever the reason, but still.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:26:26 PM | Message Detail
If Round 2 is the sprite round, then Alucard is screwed.
It would be good since I have Sora > Alucard. >_>
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/10 points
Current Match Prediction: Kratos (God of War) vs. Alucard
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:27:26 PM | Message Detail
Kirby beating Tidus wasn't out of the question before we saw this percieved trend of Nintendo rising.
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"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: cyko | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:53:53 PM | Message Detail
I'm still saying he's not getting it. Otherwise, Zelda is getting her 8-bit sprite, too, which isn't all that pretty in its own right.

i'll agree there. Zelda's sprite isn't much to look at:

http://www.emucamp.com/jagsvgz/systems/nes/reviews/games/the_legend_of_zelda/princess_zelda.gif

ugh.

it would be absolutely criminal if Zelda got a different sprite if Snake gets his 8-bit sprite. right now, i'm calling Snake vs. Zelda still up in the air. AND Snake/Zelda vs. Sora is still up in the air.

forget seeing Zelda in the Final Four - how messed up would it be to see SORA in the Final Four?

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer
is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:54:28 PM | Message Detail
Alucard is beating Sora man.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: cyko | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:55:02 PM | Message Detail
Alucard is beating Sora man.

HA!

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer
is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:59:21 PM | Message Detail
Alucard is not beating Sora, because my perfect bracket does not have that happening.

...if that was the case though, then 'empty' would be whipping Kefka and Vercetti.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 10/10 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:59:51 PM | Message Detail
Fighting Ocelot in MGS3 on Hard mode = intense
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
*Is now in need of a sig
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:03:02 PM | Message Detail
Vivi 39.88% 31903
Zelda 60.12% 48098
TOTAL VOTES 80001
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:06:52 PM | Message Detail
Leon, what vote total is this match on pace to get?
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:10:30 PM | Message Detail
Vivi/Zelda at 16:05 - 80,167
Ness/CJ - 76,610
Ganon/Yuna - 82,347

So I'd imagine we'll get close to 105k.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
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