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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 173
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:21:05 AM | Message Detail
Have we set a 'you cannot come back from X,XXX' votes yet? I personally have used 3,000 for when I stop caring about a poll (outside of ending %). Any thoughts?

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 9/9 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:23:57 AM | Message Detail
Holy crap does Kratos look awesome in that match pic. Alucard looks like... an albino pimp.

Advantage: The God of War

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 9/9 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:25:09 AM | Message Detail
Excuse me? How could you say he looks like an Albino Pimp and THEN give the advantage to the other guy. What beats an Albino Pimp?
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So I said "Supercollide her? I just met her!"
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:30:55 AM | Message Detail
If you don't adjust the 20XX Division then every returning character from that division other than Kefka and Master Chief decreases. How much sense does that make?

Character (Unadjusted // Adjusted)
Tidus (really down // down)
Shadow (really down // down)
Tommy Vercetti ( down // up )
Max Payne ( up // really up )
Zero ( down // up )
Master Chief ( up // really up )
Crash ( stable // up )
Kefka ( up // up )
Knuckles ( down // stable )
Solid Snake ( really down // down )

If we remove Tidus (Tidus/Mega Man is screwy), Shadow (he overperformed on Mario) and Kefka (we have no idea where he stand),
If you really want to say that Tommy, Max Payne and Crash increased and that Zero got rSFF on Mega Man, then keep believing that the adjusted are right.
If you really want to say that Snake and Knuckles took a drop, then it's the unadjusted you should trust.

I'm a fan of the unadjusted ones, but neither of the two really makes sense.
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: Yesmar | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:31:38 AM | Message Detail
Zero got 63% against Hayabusa. Going by the unadjusted value, Zero was projected to get 63.77%. His adjusted value had him getting 67%.

Ninja pic!!

if Manny was equal to Guybrush -- and he has ever reason to be weaker

Why would Manny be less popular than Guybrush if anything? Manny has a better picture and more board support. As far as fodder goes, that's all Manny would need to be more popular than Guybrush.

Oh, and I would also point out how Kefka's performance in the Villains Contest supports adjusting the division.

I'm not saying that Mega Man Vs. Link had "SFF" necessarily. Maybe Mega Man just randomly collapsed like Tidus did against Mega Man.

The main reasons I think you have to adjust 20XX is because if Snake decreased at all, the reasons behind his decrease should logically lead to a Mega Man increase or at the very least, Mega Man staying the same.

Here's my logic: The only logical reason for Snake decreasing would be a lack in casual support. He had just had a well-received (on GameFAQS) game and had some hype building for a new one. All signs would point to either an increase or him staying the same, so I have to logically assume that Snake's decrease was to a lack of casual support.

However, this would, if anything, help Mega Man increase, or at the very least, stay the same. Mega Man probably gets *some* casual support, but from what I've seen on GameFAQS he gets a large chunk of his votes from hardcore voters, a bloc of voters who would have more power in 2004 when casual support for the contest was down. Maybe my logic is wrong, but this is part of the reason why I believe in adjusting the 20XX Division.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:40:56 AM | Message Detail
If this match ends 59-41, Zelda adjusted through un-adjusted Vivi is equal to adjusted Snake. Thats not a good sign.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:40:56 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: MyWorldIsZelda | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:44:53 AM | Message Detail
Ninja pic!!

That's going to account for a 4% underperformance by Zero? Please. I find it far more likely to believe that his unadjusted value is more correct. It predicted it perfectly, only being .77% off, which one could attribute to Hayabusa's picture.

Why would Manny be less popular than Guybrush if anything? Manny has a better picture and more board support. As far as fodder goes, that's all Manny would need to be more popular than Guybrush.

Guybrush has had three more games than Manny and, from what I understand, a port to the PS2. These are two obscure PC games that are made from the same company. There's no way that Manny is going to be more popular than Guybrush, at least not anything worth talking about. If anything, he would be weaker. And his board support is still lesser than Guybrush according to that topic asking which one preferred, "Guybrush or Manny." Last I checked, Guybrush was winning.

I'm not saying that Mega Man Vs. Link had "SFF" necessarily. Maybe Mega Man just randomly collapsed like Tidus did against Mega Man.

He shouldn't randomly collapse against a character. Tidus didn't "randomly collapse" against Mega Man either. There's nothing that says it was just an odd occurence and Tidus will be back up to his previous levels this year.

The main reasons I think you have to adjust 20XX is because if Snake decreased at all, the reasons behind his decrease should logically lead to a Mega Man increase or at the very least, Mega Man staying the same.

Why should Mega Man increase if Snake decreases? Mega Man had one match where he performed better than what was expected of him and that was in Mega Man/Tidus. Well, he did perform better in Mega Man/Snake, but one can very easily attribute that to Snake decreasing as well, because he was weaker to begin with.

Here's my logic: The only logical reason for Snake decreasing would be a lack in casual support. He had just had a well-received (on GameFAQS) game and had some hype building for a new one.

A well-received game that sold like garbage and "hype" for a game that wasn't even that hyped to begin with?

so I have to logically assume that Snake's decrease was to a lack of casual support.

What's your excuse for 2002? The vote totals were not very high then either and Snake remained the same between the lack of "casual" support and the increase in "casual" support.

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If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.
From: Prometheus321 | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:45:18 AM | Message Detail
*tag*
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VOTE: BOWSER
From: MyWorldIsZelda | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:46:36 AM | Message Detail
Have we set a 'you cannot come back from X,XXX' votes yet?

I believe it's around the 3000 area. At that point, it's generall accepted that the character losing isn't going to be able to mount a comeback large enough to take the lead again.

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If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:48:44 AM | Message Detail
Actually Monkey Island isnt all that obscure.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: MyWorldIsZelda | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:49:58 AM | Message Detail
Everything in relation to GameFAQs.

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If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:51:47 AM | Message Detail
He shouldn't randomly collapse against a character. Tidus didn't "randomly collapse" against Mega Man either. There's nothing that says it was just an odd occurence and Tidus will be back up to his previous levels this year.

So you don't find it odd that Tidus AND Shadow both dropped so much for seemingly no reason?
From: MyWorldIsZelda | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:55:14 AM | Message Detail
So you don't find it odd that Tidus AND Shadow both dropped so much for seemingly no reason?

Shadow overperforming against Mario and Tidus dropping doesn't strike me as odd, no. There was always the possibility that Shadow could have overperformed against Mario in 2003. Heck, if you ran Mario/Shadow and Ganon/Tidus again I would be willing to bet both Mario and Ganon would be by far larger margins than they did the first time.

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If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.
From: Yesmar | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:57:44 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Yesmar | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:58:23 AM | Message Detail
Guybrush has had three more games than Manny and, from what I understand, a port to the PS2. These are two obscure PC games that are made from the same company.

And Ratchet had two (Did the third one come out before 2k4?) PS2 games before the 2K4 contest, and he was still the third worst character in 2K4.

A well-received game that sold like garbage and "hype" for a game that wasn't even that hyped to begin with?

Regardless of how well it sold, it was still fairly popular on GameFAQS, at least from my persepective.




What's your excuse for 2002? The vote totals were not very high then either and Snake remained the same between the lack of "casual" support and the increase in "casual" support.

The poll was still up on top of the screen. And Snake *did* increase in 2003 when there was an increase in "casual" voters. By a noticeable amount too, if you factor in Crono's cheating votes.

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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire
From: whatev | Posted: 7/28/2005 6:58:55 AM | Message Detail
Lemme just say that Shadow being a Sonic proxy in his match vs. Mario makes just about as much sense to me as Link/Megaman SFF.
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The world is toroidal
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:00:44 AM | Message Detail
NOOOOOOoOOooOOooOoOOoO! I can't believe Vivi is losing like this....

Not that it hurts my bracket, but Vivi is one of my favs and he was one of the only of my top characters to actually GET respect on the board... He doesn't deserve to go out like this.

That's going to account for a 4% underperformance by Zero? Please. I find it far more likely to believe that his unadjusted value is more correct. It predicted it perfectly, only being .77% off, which one could attribute to Hayabusa's picture.

Once again, you can't assume that the picture could only be worth X amount because it feels right. I myself think that Zero is closer to his 48% against Sonic than what his 2k4 value is. But I'm not going to sit here and argue for it. His match against Mario will settle everything regarding him. Of course it wouldn't necessarily account for the rest of 20XXDF due to the potential for Zero/MM SFF. I just have to stand up for Zero....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:16:44 AM | Message Detail
Zero's match vs Mario will clear up any drop/raise questions about him.
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee
From: MyWorldIsZelda | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:17:49 AM | Message Detail
And Ratchet had two (Did the third one come out before 2k4?) PS2 games before the 2K4 contest, and he was still the third worst character in 2K4.

I'm not trying to justify Guybrush being worth something. But there's no reason to think Manny is stronger than Guybrush by an amount worth talking about. The two are, at best, equal. I don't see how someone could say differently.

Regardless of how well it sold, it was still fairly popular on GameFAQS, at least from my persepective.

I never really noticed it being overly popular. It seemed to have its time on the FAQs and Message Board and then quickly dropping off. It isn't as though most games worth don't experience the same thing.

By a noticeable amount too, if you factor in Crono's cheating votes.

That I will give you since I did not account for any sort of Crono cheated votes, despite how I've brought them up before.

Lemme just say that Shadow being a Sonic proxy in his match vs. Mario makes just about as much sense to me as Link/Megaman SFF.

...Not that I believe it, but it makes far more sense than believing there is SFF between Link and Mega Man. The two have no sort of connection whether it be game types or the systems they appear on. Mega Man has spanned all sorts of consoles and the kind of fans he has shouldn't even be close to sharing the same fanbase as Link, especially in that amount. Mario/Mega Man would make far more sense to have some sort of SFF.

But Shadow looking like Sonic, facing Mario, and potentially bringing back that old rivalry from the 90s makes much more sense. Shadow overperforming could be attributed to other things as well though. That doesn't have to be the sole reason.

I just have to stand up for Zero....

Not that I blame you. I don't agree with what you say, but I can see where you're actually coming from on this. I tend to stick up for Ganon in every contest when there's something negative thrown his way when it isn't warranted.

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If you ever meet my brother, let him know… The thousands of years of raindrops summoned by my song are my tears. The thunder that strikes the Earth is my anger.
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:18:48 AM | Message Detail
*just woke up*

EC has delivered to us the greatest 500th post ever.

...Vivi needs to gain about 8% right now >_>
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:19:46 AM | Message Detail
He's not even putting up a fight...;_;

Oh well, nothing to do now except wait for Kratos/Alucard.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/9 points
Current Match Prediction: Vivi vs. Zelda
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:25:15 AM | Message Detail
*sighs* another hyped match involoving two cahracters who SHOULD be close turns into sleepwalk.... hopefully that doesn't happen to the devil division or whatevr dante's division is called.
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:35:42 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:38:26 AM | Message Detail
Not that I blame you. I don't agree with what you say, but I can see where you're actually coming from on this. I tend to stick up for Ganon in every contest when there's something negative thrown his way when it isn't warranted.

Yeah, I can understand people disagreeing but I feel Zero has MORE than proved himself. He performed about as well against Scorpion as Auron. Zero also directly performed better against Sonic than Aeris and Ryu did. That he's ranked BELOW Ryu the next year should have been a sign. Especially since you can add that Zero performed as he was supposed to against Vercetti, so it's not likely that he is overrated in 2k3. The potential for Zero/Mega Man SFF is there....

It's only his match against Mega Man that makes him look bad due to Mega Man looking bad himself against Link. And I said before, Zero and Mega Man are NOT joined by the hip. Zero has been around just as long as Sonic and has had MORE than enough time to draw in his own fanbase. Not only is he playable in the X series, but he has his own series now. So if Mega Man dropped, it doesn't necessarily mean that Zero dropped as well, ESPECIALLY not proportionally. I could go on and on, but you should most undoubtedly get my notion. LEAVE ZERO ALONE UNTIL HE FACES MARIO DAMMIT!!!
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:39:08 AM | Message Detail
And to think I almost didn't wear my "Don't make me go Zelda on you" T-shirt today.

I've actually got that shirt; my bro got it for me about two years ago. I've yet to wear it, heh.


Oh, and I would also point out how Kefka's performance in the Villains Contest supports adjusting the division.

Likewise, I would also point out how Liquid Snake's performance in the Villains Contest supports unadjusting the division.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: whatev | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:47:36 AM | Message Detail
Well, whatever the heck we do to Liquid, his numbers still end up looking like crap.
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The world is toroidal
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:49:31 AM | Message Detail
So wouldn't that make for a better case of unadjusting than Kefka of adjusting?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:56:52 AM | Message Detail
He performed about as well against Scorpion as Auron.

And going by the unadjusted stats, Zero ends up very close to Auron, closer than he ended up through the adjustment.

And I said before, Zero and Mega Man are NOT joined by the hip.

I have said that very thing multiple times in reference to a number of different characters. I don't disagree with that idea at all.

LEAVE ZERO ALONE UNTIL HE FACES MARIO DAMMIT!!!

I will continue to bring that match up when it was a mere 0.77% off by the unadjusted stats. At this point, I am merely waiting for Mario/Zero to further prove that Zero should be unadjusted with everyone else in that division when Mario breaks 60%.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/28/2005 7:58:13 AM | Message Detail
Amen to that. Our champion will impress against Zero.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:05:17 AM | Message Detail
I will continue to bring that match up when it was a mere 0.77% off by the unadjusted stats. At this point, I am merely waiting for Mario/Zero to further prove that Zero should be unadjusted with everyone else in that division when Mario breaks 60%.

*tries an attempt*

What if GameFAQs liked Mega Man X series > Mega Man series. Then it could be possible for Zero to rSFF Mega Man, which would then explain that. As for Frog I just plain think he's overrated against Snake (I don't believe it was the picture either).
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:11:13 AM | Message Detail
Zelda seems to have fallen under 60%, but she's moving right back up.

Very unexepected blow-out from the princess here. Go Zelda!

And Vivi...what happened to the Mage? Only further shows us that Sephiroth and numbers go together worse than ice cream and ketchup.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Vivi vs. Zelda- Bracket: Zelda - Vote: Zelda (8/9)
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:12:44 AM | Message Detail
I getting worried about Solid Snake's chances of getting past Round 2.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/9 points
Current Match Prediction: Vivi vs. Zelda
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:15:50 AM | Message Detail
Hey, ketchup ice cream rules! So do pizza-flavored chips!

No, seriously. She's almost making Vivi look like pre-bungee-jump Lara Croft here. This reeks of wrong.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 008/009 - Matches: 08/09 - Rank: 03492/33793 - Today: Zelda - Tomorrow: Alucard
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:17:34 AM | Message Detail
I still think Snake is the favorite in that one. Remember, I've been a believer in the whole "Nintendo has increased as a whole" theory since before the contest even started, and while I've been very impressed with the company's performance so far, I don't think it's enough of a jump to warrant a Zelda win over Snake.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:20:45 AM | Message Detail
Depends on whether you put any stock in the Solid **** factor... next round could be the sprite round, you know.

Oh, and in case you haven't checked, Strife2 just called Zelda high-end fodder in another topic. Let's all have a hearty laugh.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 008/009 - Matches: 08/09 - Rank: 03492/33793 - Today: Zelda - Tomorrow: Alucard
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:23:18 AM | Message Detail
I really hope we never get to see Solid **** again (like lettuce Kefka).
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/10 points
Current Match Prediction: Kratos (God of War) vs. Alucard
From: kinsho3 | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:23:44 AM | Message Detail
If anything, Vivi could have drawn many of his votes in his past matches from being a classic character type on the original Nintendo in Final Fantasy I. That's how he drew my vote.

Anyway, with a more worthy Nintendo character in Zelda, at least compared to that of Donkey Kong, more Nintendo fans are ditching Vivi for princess.

Doesn't sound very understandable, eh?
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
From: voltch | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:31:46 AM | Message Detail
by that current perfomance which one of these characters would you take over zelda?
zero
magus
shadow
tidus
dante

at the moment i would take only zero and magus
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:32:16 AM | Message Detail
I'd only take Zero and Magus as well.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:33:31 AM | Message Detail
Vivi 40% 14221
Zelda 60% 21328
TOTAL VOTES 35549

She's a beast! An animal!

By the way guys, I bet this doesn't make the Crew look as crazy as we did yesterday with our high Zelda picks =P
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Vivi vs. Zelda- Bracket: Zelda - Vote: Zelda (8/9)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:33:56 AM | Message Detail
I'd have never taken Dante, but the other four are quite questionable, especially Tidus and Shadow.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 008/009 - Matches: 08/09 - Rank: 03492/33793 - Today: Zelda - Tomorrow: Alucard
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:33:57 AM | Message Detail
She's almost making Vivi look like pre-bungee-jump Lara Croft here. This reeks of wrong.

Yes, that DOES reek of wrong; that implies Lara can bounce back up, heh.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Tai | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:35:05 AM | Message Detail
Vivi 40% 14306
Zelda 60% 21455
TOTAL VOTES 35761

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Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it.http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565(203 Signs!)
From: jonthomson | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:35:12 AM | Message Detail
I'd never have taken Shadow, almost certainly have not taken Dante and I doubt I'd have picked Tidus. I'd still take Magus and probably Zero.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Gooper Blooper | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:35:42 AM | Message Detail
http://i10.photobucket.com/albums/a135/Kracko/Oopsie.jpg

Not fully changing the site is funny.
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Chun-Li > Bowser book it - lol_internet
Vote for Kirby in SC2K5!
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:35:47 AM | Message Detail
Zelda would make it close with any of them, and easily beat dante. So the only ones i would take confortably over her right now are zero and magus.
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"The Lotus in Konoha blooms twice..." Rock Lee
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:35:48 AM | Message Detail
I know I'd take Magus and probably Zero...maybe Tidus, too. Shadow and Dante, though, I'd have them lose to Zelda now.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: voltch | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:36:29 AM | Message Detail
somehow i feel like zelda/snake is ocelot/wily x10 as in quite a lot of people took someone and after round one they want to exchange there souls to go back in time yet the fav still won
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/28/2005 8:38:20 AM | Message Detail
I'm still stickin' to Solid over Zelda, but you can't help but admit it's up in the air right now. Zelda is absolutely blastin' Vivi in a match that was SUPPOSED to be nearly dead-even.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
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