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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 173
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:13:19 AM | Message Detail
398,076 children have been irreparably corrupted by the wanton sexuality Rockstar has forced into our homes with the aid of custom software modifications and a handful of access codes that could potentially be used with the purchase of a third party accessory.

(loosely translates into "Zelda > Vivi" by leaps and bounds)



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

A List of Acronyms, A Lesson on Percentages, and Some Odd Matches:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawa tsoP
From: outback | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:14:02 AM | Message Detail
<3
---
SC2K5 GAME REPRESENTATION TOURNAMENT
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=22468265
From: outback | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:14:02 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:14:08 AM | Message Detail
Snake will beat Zelda still.

---
A E I OWN U
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:14:11 AM | Message Detail
Zelda > Vivi = FACT
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Vivi vs. Zelda- Bracket: Zelda - Vote: Zelda (8/9)
From: raytan7585 | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:15:15 AM | Message Detail
Zelda >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Vivi

*case closed*

---
Score: 8/9 Now: Vivi vs Zelda
MechaMachine Score: 9/9 Pick: Zelda over Vivi
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:16:25 AM | Message Detail
You know, you figured people would learn not to act like percentages are static after 15 minutes.

I guess not.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Eggplant Lord | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:19:39 AM | Message Detail
*Runs around wildly*

===
Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!
From: RPGGamer0 | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:20:48 AM | Message Detail
I should've figured it wouldn't be close.


~RPGGamer~
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:21:04 AM | Message Detail
Well, Zelda is holding on to that 63%. I don't think she's lose the day vote either.

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A E I OWN U
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:21:18 AM | Message Detail
Tag.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:21:24 AM | Message Detail
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:16:25 AM | Message Detail | #007
You know, you figured people would learn not to act like percentages are static after 15 minutes.


Zelda is still at ~63% and holding steady. And she'll only go up later.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:22:11 AM | Message Detail
She's holding steady for now. You're kiddin' yourself if you think she's staying here.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:36:01 AM | Message Detail
Zelda > Snake! =p

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: RockMFR 5 | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:37:08 AM | Message Detail
YAR! Is Ulti a pirate? YAR!!!!
---
Current Playing: Chrono Trigger (SNES) o_0
The Ohio State: We are so much better than m*ch!g@n. ^_^
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:37:26 AM | Message Detail
Zelda's impressin' thus far, for sure.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:37:55 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, so was Ganondorf.

It won't last.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/28/2005 12:40:46 AM | Message Detail
Never said it would, heh; Vivi'll get this back to being something much more respectable than this...and losing like this to Zelda isn't exactly shameful anyways.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:14:57 AM | Message Detail
HOORAY KING!

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:15:16 AM | Message Detail
All 500 posts should feature The King of All Cosmos.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:15:29 AM | Message Detail
It would incredily hilarious, not to mention really weird, if Snake managed to triple Zelda next round...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:15:45 AM | Message Detail
Incredibly*
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:15:57 AM | Message Detail
It'd also be funny if Zelda tripled Snake :).
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:16:00 AM | Message Detail
I really wouldn't bet on it, considering how badly Zelda is kicking Vivi's face in.

What were you just saying about FFIX?

Honestly, Auron is more popular than Vivi, and that went without saying. He's repeatedly proven that. Comparing this match to Auron/Ganon won't really hold up.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Dranze | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:16:28 AM | Message Detail
Zelda > Snake
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Bracket: Zelda - Vote: Zelda - Points: 8/9
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:17:12 AM | Message Detail
By the way, I'm really starting to wonder what the deal is behind the characters that got selected for the banner.

I'm guessing he just picked some random characters. Now that I examine the banner, however, I think it would be very nicely balanced had he only replaced Link with Diablo or Kerrigan. We'd have every major system/company/genre covered, and I don't think any ToC entrants should be up there anyway.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:17:39 AM | Message Detail
You PHAIL.

---
A E I OWN U
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:17:44 AM | Message Detail
Link was just there for voter eye candy.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:20:19 AM | Message Detail
It doesn't matter much who's on the banner anyways. It's not like being there is going to give them any sort of boost in their matches.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:22:05 AM | Message Detail
Vivi pushes to 39%.
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:22:53 AM | Message Detail
You mean 40%.

---
A E I OWN U
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:23:50 AM | Message Detail
I hope Round 2 isn't sprites.

---
A E I OWN U
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:26:00 AM | Message Detail
Ditto.

And if it is... Snake dun be screwed.

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:27:55 AM | Message Detail
Not necessarily. He could just use an in-game model of Snake from the MGSs.

---
A E I OWN U
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:28:37 AM | Message Detail
If Snake gets Solid **** he's so screwed.
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:29:34 AM | Message Detail
If Snake gets Solid ****, I will go on a killing spree.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:29:36 AM | Message Detail
And I fully expect to see Zelda well under 60% when I wake up.

The night vote is most certainly favoring Vivi here. Once day comes, even if Zelda is under 60%, she should be able to back over it with the morning vote, much like Ganon.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:31:55 AM | Message Detail
OMG MAINTENANCE. >_>

---
It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:32:32 AM | Message Detail
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/albums/sc2k3/sum03b55.jpg

That would be an improvement over Solid **** but an in-game model from one of the MGSs would be best.

Still, Snake will beat Zelda.

---
A E I OWN U
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:40:50 AM | Message Detail
HM: In the interest of fairness, Vivi pretty won won every demographic against DK.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:45:53 AM | Message Detail
HM: In the interest of fairness, Vivi pretty won won every demographic against DK.

VIVI PRETTY WONWON!!!
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness
From: creativename | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:47:32 AM | Message Detail
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:37:46 AM | Message Detail | #410
It is not static, transitive data.


From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/28/2005 3:39:29 AM | Message Detail
The stats we have certainly aren't static or transitive in many cases...but they're still fun to look at and compare, heh.




Woah boy...I can't believe I have to go over this again :\

Transitivity is a very weak assumption and almost assuredly true. You can basically take it for granted.

It is linearity that is disputed, not transitivity. Does no one even bother to read what I say??

Transitivity simply means that a character would be expected to defeat anyone "under" them in the bracket. e.g., if Link wins a contest, he's considered greater than everyone else; if SMB3 wins its division, it is considered greater than everyone else in the division. It applies "vertically", not "horizontally" (if you look at the winner as being the top of a pyramid, or something).

What is disputable is that a character ranked higher in the standings will defeat a character below them—but the standings rely on *both* linearity and transitivity together. You need linearity (in the sense of extrapolating percentages) to compare across people who aren't in the same "section" of the bracket. Transitivity by itself cannot be extrapolated!

Transitivity by itself does not apply to results across direct "hierarchies". e.g., in 2K4, Link beat Mega Man and Cloud beat Samus and Link beat Cloud; transitivity says that Link would beat Samus, but transitivity by itself, gives no information about Mega Man vs. Samus—you need to extrapolate, e.g. by assuming linearity, in order to compare them. Nor does transitivity apply across years.

It is the combination of linearity and transitivity that results in the extrapolated standings. And it is the linearity assumption where the problem lies, because it is a false assumption. Transitivity on the other hand is basically fact, and the only thing that could challenge it would be the speculative reverse SFF. Nothing else.

I hope this is all cleared up now.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:48:58 AM | Message Detail
*pretty much won

And it's 5 in the morning. I don't understand a word of what you just said, and I'll try reading that again tomorrow. G'night.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:53:09 AM | Message Detail
HM: In the interest of fairness, Vivi pretty won won every demographic against DK.

Uh, yes, and we all know that DK is as strong as Zelda.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: creativename | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:55:06 AM | Message Detail
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/28/2005 4:48:58 AM | Message Detail | #043
And it's 5 in the morning. I don't understand a word of what you just said, and I'll try reading that again tomorrow. G'night.

I think the example about Link/Mega Man/Cloud/Samus basically sums it about.

Transitivity says: Link>Samus, even though he didn't beat her, because he beat the guy that beat her.

Transitivity does not say anything about Mega Man vs. Samus. They cannot be compared without making further assumption(s).

If you combine linearity with transitivity, you get Samus>Mega Man, because if you assume that the performances can be extrapolated linearly, then Samus ends up looking stronger.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/28/2005 1:58:37 AM | Message Detail
This is ridiculous... 60/40?
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"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: creativename | Posted: 7/28/2005 2:01:09 AM | Message Detail
As for Snake vs. Zelda: I'd still say that Snake is the "favorite"...for instance, when the time comes, I expect most of the Oracle picks to be for Snake. But obviously that's a very questionable match now. Zelda is looking amazing here, and the Zelda winning the division bandwagon can feel fairly good right now.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/28/2005 2:03:56 AM | Message Detail
This is ridiculous... 60/40?

Heh. I'm lovin' it. When the match is over, I would expect it to be around a 60/40 deal as well. Zelda should gain the morning vote and then Vivi can bring whatever she gains back down with the second night vote. But still, it's looking exceptionally good for Zelda right now. <3

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/28/2005 2:05:34 AM | Message Detail
I'm sorta depressed about changing my Zelda > Snake pick at hte last minute
---
"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 7/28/2005 2:08:13 AM | Message Detail
Honestly, Auron is more popular than Vivi, and that went without saying. He's repeatedly proven that. Comparing this match to Auron/Ganon won't really hold up.

I think he was trying to compare Vivi/Seph and Auron/Seph. Logically, Seph should SFF Vivi more than Auron, since they were in the same generation. Therefore, unadjusted Auron's XS value is probably correct.

And as for voting trends, at this point in Vivi/DK, Vivi had 56.76%. At the end, he had 56.47%. So, 60/40 is probably around what this match will end up as.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
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