I will since it's Solid Snake.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

It's still just guesswork. Sure, it means Guybrush is more likely to be stronger, but I couldn't be sure of it one way or the other.

Well, yeah, it's guesswork, but it's guesswork with pretty solid, logical backing...
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Manny is doing noticeably better than I expected.

I thought Snake would easily blew past 87.5%, considering Manny's cult status.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Indeed, but it's not always so. Likeability is as big of a factor as sales. That's why Pikachu bombs here.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I wouldn't say solid; it's simply the best comparison we have for Manny. Stronger or weaker, we don't know.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Indeed, but it's not always so. Likeability is as big of a factor as sales. That's why Pikachu bombs here.

Well, they're both pretty likable.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I also have I feeling Kratos (GoW) will impress. There are those who have Alucard winning with over 60%, and I cannot see Kratos (who just had a recent game) be as weak as Duke Nukem. I think Alucard will win a 55-45% affair. That will also put Kratos in the list of new characters who didn't bomb. So far the only new character that hasn't bombed is Riku.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/9 points
Current Match Prediction: Vivi vs. Zelda

I don't think Guybrush was all THAT likeable. I only played the first Monkey Island, but it was all the REST of the characters that made me like the game so much.

I can't speak for Grim Fandago however....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I dunno. I have a hard time seeing Kratos finishing in the upper half of the stats.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I also have I feeling Kratos (GoW) will impress. There are those who have Alucard winning with over 60%, and I cannot see Kratos (who just had a recent game) be as weak as Duke Nukem. I think Alucard will win a 55-45% affair. That will also put Kratos in the list of new characters who didn't bomb. So far the only new character that hasn't bombed is Riku.

You should also consider 2 other factors:
- How popular is his game among the casuals?
- How much does the average GoW like him?

If his game is cult (like Lunar), or if he's not liked (like Pikachu), he will definitely bombed.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/27/2005 8:04:38 PM | Message Detail
I dunno. I have a hard time seeing Kratos finishing in the upper half of the stats.

Yeah, but if Alucard were to get over 60% on him, he'd be on the level of 2k2 Duke Nukem, which is way too close to the VFL.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/9 points
Current Match Prediction: Vivi vs. Zelda

I don't think Kratos (GoW) will be much stronger than Kain (LoK), honestly... He may be a bit stronger due to being a recent hit. People may like him, but not to the point where they would vote him over someone like Alucard....

There's a reason most brand new characters aren't as popular as expected (I'm looking at YOU Viewtiful Joe).
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

You should also consider 2 other factors:
- How popular is his game among the casuals?
- How much does the average GoW like him?

I think the game has sold well, and I've heard he is well liked because he is "badass".
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/9 points
Current Match Prediction: Vivi vs. Zelda

40% on Alucard puts him very close to 2004 Hayabusa and Jill, which I could definitely see.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I don't see Kratos getting more than... 43% against Alucard. I think that's his ceiling.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

I played GOW this week - Kratos is badass. anyone who likes GOW (and it seems like a lot of people do) will like Kratos. Alucard will win, but if enough people have played GOW, he'll impress.
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vote for vivi.

I consider Kratos the Hayabusa of 2k5...besides, ya know, hayabusa himself, heh. I do think Kratos'll get about 41% on Alucard, maybe a lil' short of it.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

On the subject of new characters, how much would Tifa need to get on Vyse in order to be equal to Aeris in strength? And how much would she need to get on Vyse in order to beat Luigi?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/9 points
Current Match Prediction: Vivi vs. Zelda

be as weak as Duke Nukem.

2002 has screwy numbers, you know.
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Bracket: Snake - Vote: Manny - Points: 7/8

CHEATERS UPDATE

well something like that.

I made a graph with 15-minutes updates for the first 3 matches and Ganon/Yuna:
http://oraclechallenge.com/graph.gif
The points show the % of the total votes in the match for each 15 minutes. I've marked the 4 weird updates from Ganon/Yuna and circled a bunch of good jumps for...Mario/Joanna O_o
Oh and btw later <----> earlier in the graphic, time flows backwards as I forgot to invert the order of the update pages when I copied the data.
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place

To be equal to Aeris, Tifa needs 70.02% on Vyse.

To be equal to Luigi, Tifa needs 61.03% on Vyse.

And for good measure, to be equal to Sonic, Tifa needs 73.31% on Vyse.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

she'd get about 71%. as for Luigi, 61.5% or so.
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vote for vivi.

I consider Kratos the Hayabusa of 2k5...besides, ya know, hayabusa himself, heh. I do think Kratos'll get about 41% on Alucard, maybe a lil' short of it.

There's no chance he'll be as strong as Ryu. He doesn't have the original Ninja Gaiden games to fall back on, and NG Xbox has somewhat better sales than GoW.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Yet Kratos/GoW strikes me as more appealing than Hayabusa/NG. Also consider that many less users here have an Xbox than a PS2. I don't expect Kratos to be far away from Ryu; they should be close and all...I just think Kratos'll perform a lil' better.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

heh, yay for estimates.

Kratos equalling Ryu sounds accurate. he might even be stronger. I don't think NG stayed in the top ten for half as long as GOW did.. though it was up there for a while. I'm not sure.

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vote for vivi.

Tifa better get AC artwork for her pics. But I already assume that's gonna be the case...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

I seriously doubt Kratos will be anywhere near Hayabusa.

He's a newcomer from an XBOX game, he'll need some time to gain respectable popularity.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Nah, Tifa ought to get her standard artwork for Vyse, an FFVII battle pic for Luigi, and then maybe AC for Sonic.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Tifa better get AC artwork for her pics. But I already assume that's gonna be the case...

I don't think so, even Cloud didn't get any AC pics until his final battle against Link last year.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

He's a newcomer from an XBOX game, he'll need some time to gain respectable popularity.

I think you mean PS2.
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vote for vivi.

On the subject of new characters

I was really talking about BRAND new characters not doing as well as expected, not characters new to the contest. Most of the big name Square characters new to the contest have done rather well for themselves (Frog, Auron, Magus..) ANOTHER reason why I have confidence in Vincent and Tifa.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Snake is gaining so unbelievably slowly. Is there any time of day he performs well over others?

///
I simply must say I'm completely out of ideas for a sig!

God of War will benefit greatly from its rentability. A game that pretty much any gamer can beat in one sitting, using sales figures to guesstimate Kratos' potential appeal may be hazardous to your percentage guess. I personally think he will fall somewhere between 40-45%, as Alucard is far too "cult" to be doubling a main character of a mainstream game such as God of War.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 8/8 (empty slots in brackets suck)

Snake is generally a pretty consistent character, from what I've seen. He doesn't have big fluctuations in any of his matches.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Snake is gaining so unbelievably slowly. Is there any time of day he performs well over others?

I don't have the answer to this, but Manny's picture may have something to do with Snake's rate of gain. In my opinion, it can appeal to anyone who visits the site.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Just caught up, and anyone who thinks Zelda is going to win with 55%+ is insane. That is all.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/27/2005 9:10:15 PM | Message Detail
Just caught up, and anyone who thinks Zelda is going to win with 55%+ is insane. That is all.

I agree. I have Vivi winning, but it won't go beyond 52% regardless.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/9 points
Current Match Prediction: Vivi vs. Zelda

Just caught up, and anyone who thinks Zelda is going to win with 55%+ is insane. That is all.

That's like expecting Tifa to beat Sonic, extremely unlikely, but not quite insane.

After all, a Zelda game was packaged as a bonus with the GC during the Christmas season, possibly increasing Zelda's fanbase.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

I personally think he will fall somewhere between 40-45%, as Alucard is far too "cult" to be doubling a main character of a mainstream game such as God of War.

SotN sold more than GoW. And being mainstream is a disadvantage on GameFAQs, if you hadn't realized that by now. If being mainstream mattered, Vercetti would've beaten Mega Man.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

SotN sold more than GoW. And being mainstream is a disadvantage on GameFAQs, if you hadn't realized that by now. If being mainstream mattered, Vercetti would've beaten Mega Man.

Are you sure about that?

Both Link and Cloud are EXTREMELY mainstream, and we all know their strength.

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Castlevania isnt exactly cult...
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Meaning mainstream to casuals.
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Bracket: Snake - Vote: Manny - Points: 7/8

SotN sold more than GoW. And being mainstream is a disadvantage on GameFAQs, if you hadn't realized that by now. If being mainstream mattered, Vercetti would've beaten Mega Man.

Huh? How is being mainstream a disadvantage? SotN is pretty mainstream compared to other games. It DID make Greatest Hits and is part of a relatively popular series. It's true that being mainstream isn't really what matters but it most certainly does help. What REALLY matters is how well a character is liked. Viewtiful Joe and Laharl may be liked, but they don't have the sales backing. CJ has the sales, but he doesn't have the likeability. It takes a balance of both.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Pointing out Link and Cloud was an obvious way to refute him, but I didn't think it was necessary.... (-_-);
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Yeah, Dranze got what I meant. I was talking more about casual games...stuff like GTA/Racing/Licenced. They have a disadvantage because Casuals are less likely to come here; they don't perform as well as their sales would indicate.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

I made a graph with 15-minutes updates for the first 3 matches and Ganon/Yuna:
http://oraclechallenge.com/graph.gif
The points show the % of the total votes in the match for each 15 minutes. I've marked the 4 weird updates from Ganon/Yuna

What's wrong with the second marked green point from the right? I don't see why you singled it out. Also do you have a rough estimate for what time the circled blue dots occured at?
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Solid Snake 84.1% 74712
Manny Calavera 15.9% 14126
TOTAL VOTES 88838

As an interesting-yet-useless note, assuming Manny = Guybrush again, this would now put Solid at 30.88% on Link 2k4...Solid's 20XXF-adjusted value is 30.82%.

Interesting...yet, useless.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Yeah, Dranze got what I meant. I was talking more about casual games...stuff like GTA/Racing/Licenced. They have a disadvantage because Casuals are less likely to come here; they don't perform as well as their sales would indicate.

Then, what would you call games like FF VII or OOT?

They're certainly not cult, are they?

---
Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

GTA fans most certainly do come here however... However, likeability is the #1 factor.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Let's be fair here; cult and mainstream are NOT black-and-white.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.