Gear Division Round 1 - Match 10 – (4)Vivi vs. (5)Zelda

Vivi
Game/Series Known From: Final Fantasy IX
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: 18th (25.22%)
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: N/A
Seed in 2004: 7
Lost in 2004 to Sephiroth in Round 2

Everyone’s favorite Black Mage is back. After doing well in his first year, can Vivi make more of an impact now?

Zelda
Game/Series Known From: Legend of Zelda
Extrapolated Rank in 2002: N/A
Extrapolated Rank in 2003: 19th (30.29%)
Extrapolated Rank in 2004: N/A
Seed in 2002: N/A
Seed in 2003: 10
Seed in 2004: N/A
Lost in 2003 to Mega Man in Round 2

Zelda! We missed you last year. It’s great to see you back! By the way, while you were back there, did you see Aeris? No? Alright, just checking.

This year’s Round 1 might be the easiest we’ve had yet, but there are still some tough matches in the Sea of Easy. This is one of those matches.

In 2003, Zelda entered the Contest setting for the first time. People were wondering how strong she was compared to Link and Ganondorf. It didn’t take them long to notice that she was right up there. Her first match was against Lara Croft. Zelda won with ease and had about 60% of the brackets on her side. Her next match was a lost cause though, as she had to face Mega Man in the next round. Surprisingly, she didn’t do too bad against the Blue Bomber. She got 39.25% of the vote against Mega Man. Then 2004 rolled along, and Zelda was considered a snub. However, Equivalent Exchange kicked in and we got Vivi. Vivi’s first opponent was DK, and boy did a bunch of people think he was going down. Only 35% of the brackets had him winning there. Vivi won rather comfortably too, receiving 56.47% of the vote. Vivi’s next opponent was Sephiroth, and we knew it was over there. Sephiroth failed to SFF Vivi (at least badly) and the Black Mage grabbed around 30% of the vote.

So now the two meet here in SC2K5, and you want to know who I think will win. Well, Zelda was stronger in 2003 than Vivi was in 2004. However, Vivi might have gotten some SFF from Seph, and we all know how Sephiroth hates numbers. But, in Zelda favor, Twilight Princess in on the horizon, and she may receive a boost from the hype. I mean, it did get her back in the Contest. The safe bet here is Zelda, but Vivi does have a chance for the upset. Many thought Vivi was going to fall to DK, but the Mage proved them wrong. However, Zelda is a whole ‘nother step up from DK.

Moltar’s Bracket Says: Zelda will win.

Moltar’s Prediction is: Zelda: 53% - Vivi: 47%



Outback’s Analysis

I've heard people telling me for about 2 or 3 weeks now (or whenever it was that I put Zelda over Snake in my bracket) that I'm crazy, you're overestimating Zelda, etc. Also, I've heard that I shouldn't use stats for everything. I'll let you know that I don't, but I do think that they're a somewhat reliable STARTING POINT for basing picks, and that's what I've done here. I really don't think there's much room for discussion in this match. Vivi may have impressed you guys last contest, but 57% on DK isn't really that much. DK is weak here, and I would not be surprised to see Zelda put up a good 63 or even a doubling before SFF. After all, 40% on Mega Man in a good year for him is better than 30% on Sephiroth in a bad year for him. Zelda wins, no contest.

Zelda with 57.65%

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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Snake vs. Manny - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (7/8)

Ulti’s Analysis


This is one of the most interesting matches of the first round, if for the sole reason that we don't have any reliable data on either character. Zelda hasn't been in a contest since 2003, and since this time both Link and Ganon have had increases. We have no clue where Zelda is even if we try to guess. Vivi had a good win over DK last year, then had an SFF loss to Sephiroth in the second round. Because of this, DK was essentially given his 2003 value and Vivi was extrapolated based off of this. So I've heard, at least.

As for who will win, I believe that Zelda will pull it out. Both Link and Ganon have made 3% increases over the past two years, and the only evidence to really disprove this is Alucard. To that, I ask why Alucard absolutely has to be adjusted if Ganon made an increase between Summer 2004 and Spring 2005? It's not impossible. And if you adjust Zelda up 3%, it really doesn't give Vivi much of a chance. Personally, I'd love to know how a boost could help Ganon and Link almost in perfect proportion, but not Zelda. Vivi definitely has a chance to win, but he needs to have been massively underestimated by the 2004 stats to do so. This is one of those evil you know over the evil you don't choices, I suppose.

Prediction: Zelda with 56.35% (just in case it's a blowout, because I can bet the rest of the crew is predicting a close match =p)



Soul’s Analysis

Here comes one of the toughest matches in the contest by some. Who could blame them? This match will be close. No more then 52-48, one way. The question is, who is going to win?

Vivi is from FFIX, one of those ho-hum Final Fantasy's. Even though fans of the Final Fantasy series dislike this game, most agree that Vivi is an awesome character. This was proven when he defeated DK last year and managed to get 30% on Sephiroth, with or without SFF. That's pretty impressive for a character from a hated game.

Zelda, on the other hand, was snubbed during the 2004 contest, along with Aeris, who was later snubbed again this contest. HA! Continuing on, Zelda finished that year with a respectable showing, defeating Lara Croft and getting 40% on Megaman.

Now, who is more impressive you think? If Megaman were to go toe-to-toe with Sephiroth today, all that he would need is more than 40% to make Zelda > Vivi. Believe me, if Bowser could get 40% on Sephiroth, and Ganondorf could get 41% on Sephiroth, why couldn't Megaman, who has proven many times that he is clearly stronger then both Ganondorf and Bowser?

Also, don't forget about something here. Link gained a lot during the last Summer contest. Ganondorf gained a lot during the Spring contest. Why wouldn't Zelda?

My prediction: Princess Zelda wins with 55.54% of the vote. Twilight Princess hype + already being stronger = goodbye Vivi!



Inviso’s Analysis

This is what can be considered the first “toss up” of the contest…even though it’s not that difficult when you really think about it. Vivi is from Final Fantasy IX, and is easily the most popular character from that game. But when you think about it…Kuja’s from that game too…he’s the main villain…and he got he thong wearing ass beat down by Master Hand. By a HAND! If I recall…Zelda’s much more popular than a hand…but then again, Vivi is much more popular than Kuja. It comes down to the fact that Zelda is in the title of every single one of her games, and she’s the female lead in each one, despite getting captured each time.(although OoT shouldn’t count because Ganondorf used hacks to crystallize her from his Castle far far away) Zelda also has the hype of Twilight Princess working in her favor, as the game is supposedly going to have a much bigger role for her. In short, Princess that uses magic>little black mage that uses magic.

My Bracket: Princess Zelda
My Vote: Princess Zelda
My Prediction: Princess Zelda with 55.03%

Tnote’s Analysis

Now here is a fairly good match on the surface. Vivi dominated Donkey Kong last year, and after a 12-month hiatus, Zelda makes a return appearance after putting up an impressive showing on Mega Man back in 2k3. I had run an intricit analysis of this match-up going through Donkey Kong, but for some reason I deleted my spreadsheet that had all of my pre-contest calculations, so you will have to take my word for it. I believe it came out to something like the Princess had a bit over a 55/45 advantage on Vivi, and when you take into account Vivi has nothing going for him since 2k4, while the Princess has an announced SSBO and the newest LoZ game possibly named after her, I think this match-up will sadly never be close.

Pick: Zelda with 58.27%



Vlado’s Analysis

Along with Tommy vs. Kefka, this is the match of the first round. Vivi kicked Donkey Kong's ass with ease last year, with a margin of over 10,000 votes. Zelda didn't participate last year, but now she's back, with the Twilight Princess hype helping her even more. Heck, she'll get many votes even for the sole reason that she's the titular character of her series. Even without all these factors, by just looking at the stats, we can see that Zelda has the advantage... However, there's one important thing that's mising there. Vivi lost to Sephiroth. There was certainly SFF at play there. I'm absolutely sure that Vivi is stronger than the X-Stats suggest. How much stronger, though? I can only speculate. What Vivi certainly does have is the BMF (Black Mage Factor), which I believe played a major role in his owning of Donkey Kong, as not that many know him as a character, as FFIX is not exactly the most popular Final Fantasy.

Zelda almost doubled Lara Croft in 2003, then got schooled by Mega Man. She did exactly as expected there and placed high in the X-Stats, above the likes of Auron and Alucard. I think she'll only have gotten stronger, as Nintendo's obviously on the rise and with the aforementioned TP hype. Will that be enough to stay above Vivi's actual strength? I believe so, even if with a little. Nintendo has shown its power in the contest, with the Ganon vs. Yuna match being the one to pay the most attention to here. While Vivi is certainly stronger than Yuna and Zelda is certainly weaker than Ganon, I believe the Nintendo character will once again win.

Predicted percentage: Zelda with 51.36%.

*eyes widen at prediction percentages for Zelda*
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

so looks like zelda has overwhelming support from the analysis crew.
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

I have Zelda over Snake. Don't expect me to go low on Zelda over Vivi
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SC2K5 GAME REPRESENTATION TOURNAMENT
http://boards.gamefaqsascii.com/genmessage.php?board=5552&topic=25560

(just in case it's a blowout, because I can bet the rest of the crew is predicting a close match =p)

Owned.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I think some of them were just trying to be bold.

Unfortunately, they all tried to be bold at the same time.
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So I said "Supercollide her? I just met her!"

A Zelda sweep? I thought Vivi would instill a smidge more fear than _this_.

Yep, even tnote picked Ness to win (and was the only one in the Crew too), but this time we're all Zelda.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Snake vs. Manny - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (7/8)

56, 57, 58%? good lord, I hope not.
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vote for vivi.

I figured, being the only one (I think) to take Zelda over Snake, that I'd have the highest pick, but I was surprised.
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SC2K5 GAME REPRESENTATION TOURNAMENT
http://boards.gamefaqsascii.com/genmessage.php?board=5552&topic=25560

but what about this theory that high vote totals favor square. and on a match that will almost certainly get high votes could this make vivi bring the match closer?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

If Zelda does win with over 55% tomorrow, she's jumped up close to Ganondorf's level. Can't see that being the case.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Vivi will take the board vote quite easily, methinks, after reading some of the pre-poll-ish topics around here.
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SC2K5 GAME REPRESENTATION TOURNAMENT
http://boards.gamefaqsascii.com/genmessage.php?board=5552&topic=25560

Vivi has to take the board vote and the night vote to have a chance, cause Zelda is gonna clean up the day vote.
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vote for vivi.

Plus, I think that would result in as big of a boost (if not maybe bigger) than what Link got last year.

Considering Ganondorf showed no signs of such a boost (at least not a huge one), I don't think Zelda will benefit that much.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

i was reading all the analysis while listening to SoTN soundtrack. is this alucard's plan?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

We'll see after this match and after Ganon/Auron. I fully expect a high-ish win (meaning 54 or so) for Ganon over Auron.
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SC2K5 GAME REPRESENTATION TOURNAMENT
http://boards.gamefaqsascii.com/genmessage.php?board=5552&topic=25560

So someone clarify this for me...
Once we hit midnight tonight it's slated to look like this?:

Midnight Board: Vivi takes lead
All through the night: Vivi slowly stretches lead
Day vote: Zelda pwns j00.
Night vote: If it gets interestng it's all about how far Vivi is behind at ay around 6pm PST and he makes pushes from here on out.
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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th

if Zelda gets 55%+ on Vivi, I'd say Ganon is pretty close to a lock. I still can't believe how high those predictions are.
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vote for vivi.

...But why would Ganondorf get a delayed boost? He showed no signs of being any stronger last year, he underperformed against Yuna (especially if you think he increased that much), and the validity of the Spring Contest is already questionable.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Nice crop of analysises there.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
*Is now in need of a sig

I honestly have no explanations for my ideas. It's a gut feeling.
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SC2K5 GAME REPRESENTATION TOURNAMENT
http://boards.gamefaqsascii.com/genmessage.php?board=5552&topic=25560

I don't think TP will be a factor in this match. Ganondorf has at least shown signs of it.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/9 points
Current Match Prediction: Vivi vs. Zelda

*sign*I don't know why i put Zelda to beat Snake but if she does make it that far c'mon ppl you know you wanna vote for her =).

So someone clarify this for me...
Once we hit midnight tonight it's slated to look like this?:

Midnight Board: Vivi takes lead
All through the night: Vivi slowly stretches lead
Day vote: Zelda pwns j00.
Night vote: If it gets interestng it's all about how far Vivi is behind at ay around 6pm PST and he makes pushes from here on out.

that's the way Vivi fans want it to happen. whether or not it does, we'll see. I doubt Vivi holds a lead past the first two hours, but we'll see.
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vote for vivi.

Yes, I don't think TP will be a big factor till the obvious Link/Cloud matchup.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
*Is now in need of a sig

I see the board vote being close, and at most Vivi will be the slight favorite. Zelda will keep it close throughout the night, and the morning vote will put her over Vivi and she'll spend the day building.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Snake vs. Manny - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (7/8)

for Vivi to have the board vote over a Zelda character is impressive. not many Square characters can claim that.
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vote for vivi.

that's the way Vivi fans want it to happen. whether or not it does, we'll see. I doubt Vivi holds a lead past the first two hours, but we'll see.

and I assume Zelda fans are hopnig for a Ridley/Diablo affair?

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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th

I think Vivi's gonna own the board vote, and build his lead. Then, during the day vote Zelda will keep it close (about 50-50). Then, the Square night vote will barely save Vivi.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 8/9 points
Current Match Prediction: Vivi vs. Zelda

TP hype is a myth to me. IMO the is no way this game's hype will have an effect at the moment. i have some friends who are zelda fans yet and only heard rumours of TP. i even had to tell them the title. at first they were excited nut now seem to have forgotten about it. so the Hype Factor shouldn't be too important
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

I think Vivi's gonna own the board vote, and build his lead. Then, during the day vote Zelda will keep it close (about 50-50). Then, the Square night vote will barely save Vivi.

it's going to at elast 50.5/49.5 by the end of the day vote. There's no way the early night vote negates the day vote, where the bulk of votes come in.


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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th

Solid Snake 83.94% 52268
Manny Calavera 16.06% 10001
TOTAL VOTES 62269

I have no idea how I actually missed his 10000th vote...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

The board vote is tough to call, as Vivi is a board favorite, and Zelda is Nintendo. Zelda might also get the board vote due to bracket voting.

The night vote should benefit Vivi, and the day vote Zelda. But I don't see any massive swings happening; DK is good with the day vote, and Vivi didn't drop too much against him.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

how many votes does the board vote equate to anyway?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Has anyone noticed that in the contest banner, the only Square representative is Yuna, while Nintendo gets several, including Link, Mario, and Samus?
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Trivia XV: Dragostea Din Tei
Yoblazer'd

Dante is the only 1 seed not on the banner.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Not much, I like to consider the first 500 votes the Board 8/Bracket vote, even though it's probably wrong.

As for today's match, Snake is pulling the same stuff he did against Tanner today. Doing absolutely nothing with the day vote. He owned the morning in both matches, but went no where during the day.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Snake vs. Manny - Bracket: Snake - Vote: Snake (7/8)

How much bracket voting advantage will Zelda have anyways?
Surely not a 65/35 afiar like last yar against Vivi, but...
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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th

I doubt anyone gets more anti-votes than [MC].

Pikachu.


[Vivi/Zelda predictions]

Wow; Zelda ain't guaranteed to win, ya'll know, especially by THAT much.



By my calculations, if Manny = Guybrush, Solid looks to be at 30.59% on Link 2k4 (also assuming Manny stays at 16.05%) as opposed to the 27.74% unadjusted Snake would get on Link 2k4. Now, you can say Manny is weaker than Guybrush and/or you can say MGS3/MGA is the cause of this higher value, but let's see how Solid-through-Manny/Guybrush would do on other characters he could face:

--SFF'd Vivi: Solid gets 58.78%.
--Vivi through DK 2k3: Solid gets 55.64%.
--Zelda: Solid gets 53.84%.
--Alucard 2k3: Solid gets 57.68%.
--Alucard 2k4: Solid gets 54.95%.
--Sora: Solid gets 55.92%.
--Tidus 2k3: Tidus wins with 52.11%.
--Tidus 2k4: Solid wins with 58.56%.
--Bowser 2k3/2k4: Solid wins with 52.8%
--Bowser Spring 2k5 (2k4 Seph): Bowser wins with 55.41%.
--Ryu: Solid wins with 51.23%.

Solid better be hoping to God Manny is as strong as Guybrush (if not stronger), especially when the Gear and Dream division champions collide.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Doing absolutely nothing with the day vote

Well, what did you expect against Tanner? He was already at 94% at that time. He had to get 10 votes to Tanner's 1 to increase percentage.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Vivi>Zelda because of FF Fanboys, him being a BM so he will get 8BT vote, and he is just the most popular character from FF9 which is a love/hate FF but it is a FF nonetheless. Vivi is a strong Black Mage and Zelda gets kidnapped....I only hope an SSBM factor DOESNT come into play because as we all know Sheik is the second most used character from that game.

My bracket- Vivi
My vote- Vivi
My guess- Vivi with 52%

Bowser Spring 2k5 (2k4 Seph)

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! You know better than that.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Well...so much underestimation for poor Vivi. I honestly wouldn't mind if Zelda won, even if that's not what's on my bracket, but now I honestly want to see Vivi win just to see the look of shock on everyones' faces.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

As I stated multiple times before this match, you can pretty much rest assured that Manny>Guybrush.

His character model alone would account for that.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

you'd need like 19 votes to 1 to increase at 94%. you simply can't go much higher.

Pikachu vs. Master Chief would cause thousands of voters to have seizures.
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vote for vivi.

Heh, I know, but I decided to throw it in there anyways for comparison-purposes, much like Tidus 2k4. =P
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

*Looks at the "Vivi > Zelda because FF Fanboys > Zelda fanboys" comment*

Link winning two contests, one over Cloud, would like to have a word with you.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
*Is now in need of a sig