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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 171
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:46:03 PM | Message Detail
I'd recite a Manny quote, but there are too many good ones. Just go here instead (possible spoilers, maybe?): http://www.grimfandango.net/?page=quotes



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawa tsoP
From: PiGuy96 | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:46:45 PM | Message Detail
Vivi > Zelda
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: durango X3 | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:47:05 PM | Message Detail
Vivi > Zelda
---
Wait, do you hear that? It's the sound of the Reaper calling your name. -Magus Zeal
From: Not Dave | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:47:41 PM | Message Detail
Zelda > Vivi


ND
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:47:52 PM | Message Detail
Way to start off the topic with such lies!
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Big Boss - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Boss (6/7)
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:47:53 PM | Message Detail
Wait, why did I tag with that account?
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:47:54 PM | Message Detail
Zelda > Sora > Snake > Vivi

Yeah....
From: CyberMachine08 | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:48:17 PM | Message Detail
C-C-C-C-COMBO BREAKER!!!

Zelda > Vivi

---
I thought lolicon would mean LOL ICON as in Lol internet - XIII is cool
*is raytan7585*
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:49:20 PM | Message Detail
Zelda/Vivi is being debated this much? I'd seriously be stunned if Vivi won.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:50:40 PM | Message Detail
Manny Calavera sounds like a skateboarders name.

---
A E I OWN U
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:50:53 PM | Message Detail
Gordon Freeman > Vivi > Zelda > Snake
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:51:38 PM | Message Detail
Zelda/Vivi is being debated this much? I'd seriously be stunned if Vivi won.

Something cn said last topic seems applicable here.

I learned that anytime you have a character possibly underrated by SFF, their ceiling might be pretty high.

Vivi's ceiling is pretty high.
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: outback | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:52:21 PM | Message Detail
*PLUGS TOURNEY IN SIG*
---
SC2K5 GAME REPRESENTATION TOURNAMENT
http://boards.gamefaqsascii.com/genmessage.php?board=5552&topic=25560
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:52:27 PM | Message Detail
Zelda/Vivi is being debated this much? I'd seriously be stunned if Vivi won.

Didn't you say the same about DK/Vivi last year?

Auron > Ganondorf

Ryu > Bowser
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:29:27 AM | Message Detail
Vivi's ceiling is pretty high.

Hmmm? I thought that even Vivi-through-DK was weaker than Zelda.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:30:02 AM | Message Detail
Vivi through DK 2003. There's no telling whether DK 2004 was stronger or weaker than that mark.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:33:09 AM | Message Detail
2k3 Extrapolateds:

11) Ganondorf 34.72%

| | | |

16) Squall Leonhart 31.72%

| | | |

19) Zelda 30.29%
20) Auron 28.73%

| | | |

22) Alucard 27.56%


Two 2k3 match results worth noting:

1) Auron goes down to Cloud, 72.20% - 27.80%.
2) Alucard goes down to Sephiroth, 72.28% - 27.72%

Four important 2k4 Match results:

1) Ganondorf defeats Alucard, 57.16% - 42.84%
2) Sephiroth defeats Vivi, 70.25% - 29.75%
3) Cloud Strife defeats Squall Leonhart, 76.21% - 23.79%
4) Sephiroth defeats Auron, 67.70% - 32.30%

So, what do we see in the above information?

* Auron outperformed Squall against Cloud by a good 4%. Even if one argues that Squall would be more susceptible to SFF because his FF title was on the original PS, Auron should at worst be rated as equivalent to Squall. In all likelihood, Auron is somewhat stronger.

* Auron outperformed Vivi against Cloud by roughly 2.5%. If one were to argue that Vivi would be more susceptible to SFF because his FF title was on the original PS, Vivi would rate somewhat closer to Auron. In all likelihood, Auron is somewhat stronger than Vivi. The relationship between Vivi and Squall is difficult to determine, but based on the information provided we'll say that they should be fairly close to one another in terms of strength.

* It should be noted that Squall scored above Zelda in the 2k3 standings.

* Vivi outperformed Alucard against Sephiroth by roughly 2%. Assuming that Vivi is susceptible to SFF, he should be at least somewhat stronger than Alucard.

* Since Alucard scored close to 43% on Ganondorf, it should be safe to assume that the stronger Vivi should at worst fall somewhere in the 44%+ range on Ganondorf.

* It should also be noted that Zelda is projected to score 43.62% on Ganondorf, according to the 2k3 standings.

* It should further be noted that in the 2k2 extrapolated standings, Lara Croft projected out to a score of 21.80% on Link, while in the 2k3 extrapolated standings, Lara (through Zelda) projected out to a score of 22.85% on Link.

* It's also worth mentioning that Ryo Hazuki, who fell to Lara Croft in 2k2 by a tally of 59.38% - 40.62%, projected out to 12.62% on Link in 2k3, meaning that Lara would have been projected to beat him by a tally of 72.39% - 27.61%.

So, if we take this information, and throw in the Vivi/DK/Vercetti/Zelda/Mega Man data to boot...I think it's fair to say that the Vivi/Zelda match is worthy of some debate.
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:33:39 AM | Message Detail
Snake will finish with 85%-87%
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:36:32 AM | Message Detail
* Vivi outperformed Alucard against Sephiroth by roughly 2%. Assuming that Vivi is susceptible to SFF, he should be at least somewhat stronger than Alucard.

It should be noted that Sephiroth was weaker statistically in 2004 though.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:49:48 AM | Message Detail
Zelda > Vivi

Bowser > Snake

Ganon > Auron

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:51:52 AM | Message Detail
*It should be noted that Alucard boosted from 22.70% to 27.56% between 2002 and 2003 (despite a supposed underperformance on Sephiroth), Crono-style, and likely had a similar boost from 2003 to 2004.

*You may also find it interesting that Link had a large boost between 2003 and 2004. Remember that such a boost for a strong character is far more significant than such a boost for a weak character.

*Ganon performed extremely well on Sephiroth in sp2k5, causing him to boost from 32.38 to 35.97.

*Ganon endured SFF in SC2k4, so it's entirely possible that this boost was already in place during that period.

*SC2k4 Alucard may actually be underrated.

So, if we take this information into account, then:

1. Your data on Alucard makes it *more* likely for Zelda to beat Vivi.

2. Sora stands no chance against Alucard.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: Applekidjosh | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:51:52 AM | Message Detail
wow, only 76% got yesterday's right... ouch.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:52:40 AM | Message Detail
Heroic Mario goes 0-for-3, but not surprising.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:53:04 AM | Message Detail
Zelda > Vivi

Snake > Bowser

Ganon > Auron


Fixed.

---
A E I OWN U
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:54:08 AM | Message Detail
Guy: That makes sense, but I think Square SFF is far more negligible than Nintendo SFF.

Anyway, how does this look so far? http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/acronymspercentsanomalies.htm

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Infamus | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:54:33 AM | Message Detail
tag
---
http://tinypic.com/9bj249.jpg | My game collection: http://users.ign.com/collection/MailedFission
From: transience | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:56:18 AM | Message Detail
looks good. you should throw a link sc2k5's way for the explanation of the x-stats.
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vote for vivi.
From: creativename | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:56:59 AM | Message Detail
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/27/2005 2:46:03 AM | Message Detail | #001
(possible spoilers, maybe?):


Bravo! <gives Ulti a golf clap>

XD

(...btw, that's actually the first time I've ever XD'd)


From: BeTheMan | Posted: 7/27/2005 3:33:09 AM | Message Detail | #017
...
...I think it's fair to say that the Vivi/Zelda match is worthy of some debate


Hey, entertaining post :)

---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/27/2005 12:58:17 AM | Message Detail
Oh, you shut up. That was not a spoiler in the last topic =p

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: creativename | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:04:15 AM | Message Detail
Nice work on the acronyms page.

While the stats serve to be a good tool, they are mostly a general guide and not pure canon due to the fact that they are not transitive.

Actually, you mean not linear. Transitivity hasn't really been challenged ever (outside of the obvious problems in series of close matches, where anything minor can make a difference in the result). Since each character will perform slightly differently against other different characters, linearity is a known false assumption, used for simplification purposes; and works fairly well in non-SFF cases. SFF would be the classic non-linearity example.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: creativename | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:08:32 AM | Message Detail
Added to the links page...
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/9

And Snake still under 83%. Looks like he won't get much momentum until the morning.
---
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:09:14 AM | Message Detail
Solid Snake 83% 4574
Manny Calavera 17% 937
TOTAL VOTES 5511

Back up to 83% for the legend.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: voltch | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:10:54 AM | Message Detail
vivi/zelda will make an absolute bang if it's close but it might be just another shadow/tidus no?
---
Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:13:16 AM | Message Detail
On the contrary, those three characters will be winning.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:15:07 AM | Message Detail
*It should be noted that Alucard boosted from 22.70% to 27.56% between 2002 and 2003 (despite a supposed underperformance on Sephiroth), Crono-style, and likely had a similar boost from 2003 to 2004.

Okay.

*You may also find it interesting that Link had a large boost between 2003 and 2004. Remember that such a boost for a strong character is far more significant than such a boost for a weak character.

Agreed.

*Ganon performed extremely well on Sephiroth in sp2k5, causing him to boost from 32.38 to 35.97.

Depends on how we rate Sephiroth, but I'll live with that for the moment.

*Ganon endured SFF in SC2k4, so it's entirely possible that this boost was already in place during that period.

Alrighty.

*SC2k4 Alucard may actually be underrated.

In theory, yes.

So my question becomes...what impact does that have on Vivi or Zelda? Are we operating under the assumption that Ganondorf and Zelda are joined at the hip strengthwise?

Well then. If we assume that Ganondorf is worth 35.97% on Link, then we have to assume that Yuna is worth 27.91% on Link, which would be a pretty solid gain from 2003 to 2005, especially if Link has himself gotten stronger in the meantime.

Now, even assuming that Yuna and Ganondorf have both gotten stronger than 2003, I think it's still fairly safe to assume that Tidus is a fair amount stronger than Yuna, so...at a minimum, let's bump him up to about 30%.

Beyond that, I think it's fairly safe to assume that Auron is a good deal stronger than Tidus, because we know for a fact that he's the most popular FFX character on the site by a pretty wide margin (based on old poll data). And while I think he's stronger than Ganondorf, I'll be generous to the Nintendophiles and plop him in around the 34% mark.

Now then:

If Ganondorf was worth 34.72% in 2k3 and is worth 35.97% now, and if we assume that Zelda and Ganondorf are joined at the hip, then we'll bump Zelda up from 30.29% to 31.54%.

Meanwhile, if Auron is worth 34% on Link, and if Vivi projects out to 46% on Auron (through Sephiroth), then we get a value of...31.28% on Vivi...and this is assuming that Yuna is worth 41.04% on Auron, which would have to be considered fairly generous considering her 55/45 loss to Knuckles and his 65/35 win over Tails.

So...can we still say that there's room for debate in Vivi/Zelda? :-P (And now I'm off to bed)
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: transience | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:18:00 AM | Message Detail
you know, I'm convinced if I gave you a set of numbers you could convince me that black was white and that 2+2=5.
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vote for vivi.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:18:08 AM | Message Detail
At the 1:15 mark, this match has 5881 votes.

Apparently, Ness/CJ at 1:15 doesn't exist...

Zero/Hayabusa - 5661
Riku/Frog - 6086
Auron/Big Boss - 5827
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:29:52 AM | Message Detail
I know it's from Acid but where on the internet. >,>

---
A E I OWN U
From: voltch | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:32:05 AM | Message Detail
so if day vote starts at 2pm in britain it will then start in roughly four and half hours?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:37:30 AM | Message Detail
I can't seem to find it using google.

---
A E I OWN U
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:40:22 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: transience | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:41:40 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:46:30 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:49:06 AM | Message Detail
So my question becomes...what impact does that have on Vivi or Zelda? Are we operating under the assumption that Ganondorf and Zelda are joined at the hip strengthwise?

Well, my main point was that your arguments based on Alucard were useless.

Well then. If we assume that Ganondorf is worth 35.97% on Link, then we have to assume that Yuna is worth 27.91% on Link, which would be a pretty solid gain from 2003 to 2005, especially if Link has himself gotten stronger in the meantime.


23.66 to 27.91 is far from an enormous jump, over two years. Metroid Prime gave Samus a far larger boost, and Samus has way more games to draw upon than Yuna, and she's a stronger character so her boost was even more significant.

I think it's still fairly safe to assume that Tidus is a fair amount stronger than Yuna, so...at a minimum, let's bump him up to about 30%.


Tidus doesn't have to be stronger than Yuna at all. He wasn't in FFX-2 (well, maybe a little, but hardly any), so any boost from that would go entirely to other characters. Bumping him up to 30% is fine though, I suppose. It's a value that makes sense.

Beyond that, I think it's fairly safe to assume that Auron is a good deal stronger than Tidus, because we know for a fact that he's the most popular FFX character on the site by a pretty wide margin (based on old poll data).

Please don't mention PotDs. Ever. Yoshi is not even close to Mario, and even post-X-2 Rikku is likely weaker than Tidus.

Meanwhile, if Auron is worth 34% on Link, and if Vivi projects out to 46% on Auron (through Sephiroth), then we get a value of...31.28% on Vivi...

And this gives DK a value of ~27%, which makes him roughly equal to Yoshi, and stronger than Knuckles. Which I don't believe for a second.

and this is assuming that Yuna is worth 41.04% on Auron, which would have to be considered fairly generous considering her 55/45 loss to Knuckles and his 65/35 win over Tails.

Her loss was pre-X-2, and Knuckles is substantially stronger than Tails.

Once again, it's ridiculous to think that Vivi will win. :-p
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:50:03 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:51:25 AM | Message Detail
NewLib, Transience and Sidarta. Man, all three at once...

If I may ask, what's going on?

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:52:48 AM | Message Detail
I don't sleep enough. :P I'm thinking if I get some sleep, start over again, call someone stupid and go from there it'd be a lot better. i can't keep it straight in my head whose in a fighting mood. *shrugs* I fyou want you can make a sign up list, it'd be easier for me to keep track of.
---
"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/27/2005 1:59:22 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and apologies to NewLib, should he have seen that, as I think this is the second time I've confused him with someone else. That transient kid and sidsomething though, man are they uh... saying stuff.

Let's be honest, when your scedual sometimes looks like "Monday: 5p-1a, Tuesday 5:30a-1pm" you're jsut not capable of being the same person you used to be...
---
"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"
From: transience | Posted: 7/27/2005 2:00:18 AM | Message Detail
hehe, this is entertaining. basically, I posted a quote from an old stats topic while Chichiri was getting ready to do war with the world and he thought I was attacking him. ain't no thing.
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vote for vivi.
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 7/27/2005 2:00:48 AM | Message Detail
And Dilated Chemist, this picture of Snake is the sixth you get in a Google Image Search for 'Acid Snake'.
---
Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.
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