Vivi/Zelda vs. Snake is going to be the best match of the second round. Whether or not it outdraws Ganondorf/Auron is another matter altogether.

As far as bracket support goes in Ganondorf/Auron, I would be stunned if either one of them holds a significant advantage. It's one of those rare matches where a strong case can be made for both sides.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

Ulti: have you considered posting some links to your contest analyses? those things are great for people who haven't been around to see it all. they're also rather nostalgic, heh.

mnm: years ago, I had sheet music of Aeris's theme, got a few lines in and kind of gave up. it just didn't sound nearly as good, not sure why. maybe I'm just ass at piano.
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If Ganon drew more individual votes against a stronger opponent than Auron did against a weaker, then THEORETICALLY (meaning without vote stuffing, etc.) Ganon would be favored to win looking at vote totals alone.

Theoretically, yes. In reality, no. Ganondorf has already been in this situation with Magus, and he lost.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

"I can't think of any Ganon sprites that won't cause him to underperform by 2-3%,"

Right, because people can't recognize the name Ganon or something. Pic factor people can be so ridiculous.
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"Love forever, love is free. Let’s turn forever you and me." - Gorillaz "Feel Good INC"

so who thinks manny will be stronger than tanner?
i do but that won't stop snake from getting 85% on him
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

It's going to be difficult to be as weak as Tanner. Manny won't go quite that low, but I think Snake can manage 85% or so.

I'm curious about what picture Snake will get: Classic Melting Snake, Naked Snake, or (though it's unlikely) the new MGS4 concept art.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Since we're in the middle of discussing the individual vote stuff, I figure we outta look at an update on how they're performing individually.

As of the 13:35 mark, here's how they compare.

Auron - 44,311
Ganon - 43,544

I'm sure we all know Yuna is greater than Big Boss. Blah blah blah. No sense in explaining that.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

I see what you two are saying, but it just doesn't make sense. It's self defeating. Compare these two polls.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2011
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=2018

Lets replace the name "Ganondorf" with "Auron" in the first poll. Look, Ganondorf is getting a comparable amount of votes against a much stronger opponent, obviously he must be stronger than Auron.

Does this sound familiar?
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

Heroic Mario, sig bet on Bowser vs Snake?
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 7/7
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Auron Tomorrow: Snake

Ganondorf vs. Tidus (2003) - 115,738
Ganondorf vs. Magus (2003) - 109,708
Ganondorf vs. Yuna (2005) - 106,979

That's pretty interesting that Yuna is definitely no Tidus or Magus and the match had a far larger margin of victory for Ganon and the vote totals were nearly as high as those matches. Ganon appears to have a habit of putting up some high vote totals in most matches he's in.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Considering Ganon is in the Zelda series, there's no reason to think he wouldn't draw in the votes.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Heroic Mario, sig bet on Bowser vs Snake?

That... came out of nowhere, but sure.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Considering Ganon is in the Zelda series, there's no reason to think he wouldn't draw in the votes.

Of course. He's not going to be a slouch when it comes to that.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/26/2005 3:02:06 PM | Message Detail | #365
If Auron is stronger than Ganondorf he pretty much has to get more votes then Ganondorf would against Big Boss.

Not necessarily true actually...the probability of a vote being cast is a dynamic factor too. Certain characters may be of equal strength to other characters, but be much less likely to have people care enough to vote in their match. People might just be more likely to abstain.

A possible example might be Magus vs., say, Sephiroth. Even if both were of the same strength, Sephiroth probably inspires more emotions in people, making them more likely to vote. That's not a good example because they aren't actually of the same strength, but I hope the point is clear. And Ganon/Magus are about of the same strength but Ganon has historically been far superior at drawing votes. Tidus is probably a better vote drawer than Magus too. In fact, I'm pretty sure that Squall is as well. And Squall is at most roughly equal to Magus.


From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/26/2005 4:25:19 PM | Message Detail | #395
If Ganon drew more individual votes against a stronger opponent than Auron did against a weaker, then THEORETICALLY (meaning without vote stuffing, etc.) Ganon would be favored to win looking at vote totals alone.

No, because that's just not how things work. Vote totals are not statically related to strength. People have already brought up the Magus vs. Ganon example, which forcefully denies the utility of this for analysis purposes.


Anyone looking to use Ganon's vote drawing to convince themselves Ganon has a clear edge against Auron is obviously barking up the wrong tree. There are things you can point too that might indicate Ganon>Auron, but this particular issue is likely little more than a waste of energy.

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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

No, because that's just not how things work. Vote totals are not statically related to strength. People have already brought up the Magus vs. Ganon example, which forcefully denies the utility of this for analysis purposes.

Ganon/Tidus being so close was probably the reason Ganon got so many votes as far as totals go. I already touched that base earlier. Of course, I never said you should base your DECISION based on this due to there being far more factors. But it is an interesting tidbit.

I just noticed that Ganon will have faced Tidus, Yuna, AND Auron after this contest. If he wins, we can officially call him the FFX Slayer.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Or you can say that Auron will be pissed off and looking for revenge. This match would work well for fanfic purposes :)
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I just noticed that Ganon will have faced Tidus, Yuna, AND Auron after this contest. If he wins, we can officially call him the FFX Slayer.

Yes, we can. Oh what a day is shall be! <3

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Or you can say that Auron will be pissed off and looking for revenge. This match would work well for fanfic purposes :)

*SPOILERS*

Heh, last time Auron got pissed off and let his emotions get the best of him, he got owned by Yunalesca.... <_<
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Fortunately, he won't do it. Regardless, as has been said many times in these topics, Magus is probably the worst near elite when it comes to drawing votes against lesser competition. When he faces the big boys, he does just fine.

For the record, Auron outdrew Ganondorf in the first round last year despite facing a weaker opponent, but Mortal Kombat is probably a bigger draw to the casuals than SotN is. Vote totals rely on both characters, not just the winner.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Don't look now, but Auron is dropping in percent.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Big Boss - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Boss (6/7)

Just because I wasn't here for this discussion last night: It always amazes me how good the stories of the GTA games are when you really look closely at em.

This match is a tad unhelpful statswise, unfortunately. Auron vs. Ganondorf... all we can really say about it now is "Yeah, Ganon's got the edge, but it could go either way." Now we just have to wait two more days for something interesting.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?

Don't look now, but Auron is dropping in percent.

*looks*

Not anymore.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Which is exactly why I said NOT to look.

Learn to follow direction, Leon. =P
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Big Boss - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Boss (6/7)

http://www.justzelda.zeldacentral.net/fsa.ganon.jpg

There's a sprite that Ganon could get that would be...interesting. It's not that bad, but it's a shame that it's lacking the red eyes.

http://www.ganonstower.com/z3ganon.gif

LttP Ganon is pretty good, IMO. Especially if he gets his awesome pitchfork.
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b09.jpg

That's almost as bad as Solid ****, IMO.
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Welcome to Moonside. Wecomel to Soonmide. Moonwel ot cosidme.

oh man... Vivi/Zelda... awesome.

the rest (up to 12) are decent.
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Snake/Manny pic... meh. Nothing much.
TP Zelda pic. I weep for Vivi.
GoW Kratos looks badass. They're having a staring match.
Sora looks pretty good.
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When you get upset, remember it takes 42 muscles to frown, but only 4 to extend your middle finger.

...What's wrong with that picture of Snake? It's undeniably him.I'm assuming it's from Metal Gear Acid, since I don't recognize it.

Vivi/Zelda is...not that good. Zelda got a bad picture, which is good for Vivi.

Awesome picture of Kratos.

Sora/Agent 47 is pretty good, too. Nice to see KHII Sora.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Yeah, it's MGA Snake.
And I thought Zelda having a TP pic would help her. Then again, pic factor, blah blah blah.
KHII Sora rocks.
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When you get upset, remember it takes 42 muscles to frown, but only 4 to extend your middle finger.

Snake/Manny - ok
Vivi/Zelda - it's decent, I'm not blown away by it, and they both seem to be...just sort of standing there.
Kratos/Alucard - it's nice, but alucard's whiteness sort of stand out a lot
Sora/Agent 47 - good, it's a nice pic, sora's stance is pretty cool.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

I suppose that TP Zelda pic will boost Zelda, which could be all she needs...

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Oh. My. God.
Did the PS2's light just change color...?!

one great thing about Vivi: you can't get a bad black mage picture. I don't think Zelda looks that bad.

Kratos does indeed look pretty good. even Agent 47 looks decent.
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Holy Christ that's a bad Snake pic...then again, Manny isn't looking anything like the Grim Reaper.

Zelda got the TP picture! Vivi in all his Black Mage goodness is there too.

Nice Kratos pic there, Alucard doesn't look haf-bad himself.

Sora's pic is nice, and 47 is....47.

Except for the first, they're all decent.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Big Boss - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Boss (6/7)

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b9.jpg

I think with that pic, Manny should do better than many expected him to.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b10.jpg

Excellent picture, possibly the best of this contest. Nice to see TP Zelda.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b11.jpg

Decent pic.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b12.jpg

Hm... I can't see Agent 47 being "neo-Tanner" with that picture, personally.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness

I just don't think that TP art of Zelda looks all that good. Looks weird to me.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I love TP art of Zelda.

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Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar

Once again, what is wrong with that Snake picture?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

TP Zelda looks badass!!!! I'm actually considering voting against my bracket in that.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

TP art for Zelda is awesome. It's just a shame that she didn't get this picture:

http://clemox.free.fr/10_four_swords/Presentation_PRE_zelda.gif
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

Snake/Manny - TERRIBLE Snake pic.

Vivi/Zelda - And I thought Samus/Yuri was amazing. This blows me away. TP Zelda and Black Mage Vivi. A truly awesome pic for an epic battle.

Kratos/Alucard - Kratos looks good, but Alucard seems a bit out of place. Still a good pic.

Sora vs. Agent 47 - KH2 Sora = awesome. 47 looks awesome too.

Overall, Gear Division seems to have the best first round match pics by far.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 7/8 points
Current Match Prediction: Solid Snake vs. Manny Calavera

Mac Arrowny, I didn't need to see that...

>_<

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Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar

Zelda looks great. I don't think there's any pic advantage there.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

So I'm the only one who thinks Vivi/Zelda is rather...plain? Nothing stands out about it to me.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

FSA > You

And the Vivi pic was alright...but this one would've been much better (seriously this time):

http://www.zellfantasy.it/download/desktop/ffix/vivi-fire_wallpaper.jpg
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Pity for the guilty is treason to the innocent.

You have redeemed yourself. That CG was kickass. <3

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Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar

I also think the Vivi/Zelda pic's too plain. They're just standing there. I'm not getting anything from it.
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When you get upset, remember it takes 42 muscles to frown, but only 4 to extend your middle finger.

It's plain, but both received decent poses and pics.

It's no Zero/Ryu, but it's good.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Big Boss - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Boss (6/7)

When you guys said TP Zelda, I thought you meant the in-game TP picture with her cloak, which is so cool it be INSTANT WIN.

This is still a good pic.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

But it's just basic Vivi, same thing he got in both of his matches last year.

I was talking to Heroic Mario yesterday about wanting Vivi to get the pic that Mac just posted. That would've been awesome.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno