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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 169
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:09:00 AM | Message Detail
No, I have Ganondorf.

And if round 2 is the sprite round, we're so getting Bacondorf. The guy needs every vote he can get, and he's stuck with his stupid pig form. I'm thinking he's going to miss out on the Sweet 16 AGAIN.

Which reminds me, my brother made a human Ganondorf sprite sheet out of a Zero one for a Flash movie he made. Looks much better than Bacondorf IMO.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 006/007 - Matches: 06/07 - Rank: 03983/33793 - Today: Auron - Tomorrow: Snake
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:09:25 AM | Message Detail
You have Auron winning?

You poor thing.


He'd have no reason to worry if that were the case.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:10:54 AM | Message Detail
It was a joke.

And massive overperformance? I only expected Auron to be doing a couple points less than he has now. I never expected much out of Big Boss.

Yuna's been gone for 2 years, and she's obviously has gotten stronger since then because of FFX-2. She wouldn't be the most reliable source to use in trying to find out if Ganon's number is legit.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Big Boss - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Boss (6/7)
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:11:15 AM | Message Detail
I think Auron is significantly underperforming, I can't fathom Big Boss having that large a fanbase. If this doesn't get to tripling territory I'll be very confident in Ganon over Auron.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:15:35 AM | Message Detail
Which reminds me, my brother made a human Ganondorf sprite sheet out of a Zero one for a Flash movie he made. Looks much better than Bacondorf IMO.

Leonhart IIRC, posted a link to some badass Ganon sprites in either this, or the previous topic. I'm just too lazy to go and find them.

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This sig was pimped by icon's sig
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:15:51 AM | Message Detail
I think Auron is significantly underperforming, I can't fathom Big Boss having that large a fanbase.

The MGS fanbase is large here, make no mistake. It's one of the largest non-Nintendo, non-Square ones on this site.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:18:12 AM | Message Detail
Ganondorf vs Magus 2k3 comes close. Ganondorf only got 2000 votes less than Magus against a stronger opponent for their first round matches.

Yeah, I thought as much. But Ganondorf/Tidus has a reason for there to be more votes than Tidus seeing how it was a close match, with the high vote totals, there was sure to be vote stuffers.

In this situation, Ganon had no reason to have vote stuffers against Yuna. So if he has more total votes than Auron and Yuna is stronger than Big Boss, then Ganon should theoretically have the edge. It would then come down to vote stuffers, unfortunately....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:19:28 AM | Message Detail
I'm not, in fact I think Ocelot will be much stronger than his Spring Contest results show, but that's besides the point. There is no reason for anyone to actually like Big Boss save for MGS3, and that's provided you're not a moron, and played the other games. I'm sure that last sentence will be responded to only people who played the others would have played MGS3, but, how about those who only played it's predecessors and not 3, once again, no reason for them to have any attachment to the Big Boss character.


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This sig was pimped by icon's sig
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:21:26 AM | Message Detail
On the other hand, if Auron does end up making it close or winning the match, then it would just cause the stats to say that Big Boss must be stronger than Yuna... That's a weakness of the stats that we never really account for.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: voltch | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:22:06 AM | Message Detail
damn big boss he cost me three whole points
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:23:50 AM | Message Detail
Any other possible first round shockers?
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 7/7
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Auron Tomorrow: Snake
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:23:50 AM | Message Detail
Vote drawing ability works both ways, you know. Just because Auron doesn't get much more than Ganondorf isn't solely on him. You have to understand that Yuna is a much bigger draw than Big Boss. If Ganondorf were facing him, I wouldn't expect him to be drawing more votes than Auron is right now.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:24:18 AM | Message Detail
I would bet my life on Yuna > Big Boss.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 7/26/2005 11:24:54 AM | Message Detail
Voltch..I accidently left Sam over DK in my bracket __-.

SIMOO
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 7/7
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Auron Tomorrow: Snake
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:02:06 PM | Message Detail
If Ganondorf were facing him, I wouldn't expect him to be drawing more votes than Auron is right now.

Well that's because you think Auron will beat Ganondorf. If Auron is stronger than Ganondorf he pretty much has to get more votes then Ganondorf would against Big Boss.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:04:15 PM | Message Detail
This argument will be completely useless if the next round is sprites. I can't think of any Ganon sprites that won't cause him to underperform by 2-3%, and Auron can easily make that up.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:05:14 PM | Message Detail
Well that's because you think Auron will beat Ganondorf. If Auron is stronger than Ganondorf he pretty much has to get more votes then Ganondorf would against Big Boss.

If they're approximately the same in strength, I don't see why it wouldn't be true.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: voltch | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:11:16 PM | Message Detail
so what is the best match the gear division can offer us?
vivi/zelda one of the most hyped matches of round 1 or alucard/sora which seems like a toss up
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:11:24 PM | Message Detail
It's Ganondorf and Auron. The voters here know who both of them are by name alone. And at that, there probably isn't a huge minority either of people who don't know either of them, especially with it being a Nintendo vs Square. Ganon had such high bracket support against Yuna, that I really don't think pic factor is going to hurt him much at all.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:14:40 PM | Message Detail
The Gear Division is actually filled with good matches.

Zelda/Vivi
Winner/Solid Snake
Sora/Alucard
Winner/Solid Snake

I mean, just from match results alone, we have Frog being close to Liquid and close to Solid Snake, we have Riku being close to Frog, and then we have the assumption, a probably accurate one, that Sora is stronger than Riku. Granted, most people here think there were problems with these matches, but also, the matches are fact, our interpretations aren't.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:23:36 PM | Message Detail
Vote drawing ability works both ways, you know. Just because Auron doesn't get much more than Ganondorf isn't solely on him. You have to understand that Yuna is a much bigger draw than Big Boss. If Ganondorf were facing him, I wouldn't expect him to be drawing more votes than Auron is right now.

Yeah, but the only way that Yuna would have any effect on people voting for Ganon is if there are people that would only vote for Ganon if he was up against a stronger opponent. Otherwise, nothing else would stop Ganon's fans from voting for him. So I would include people only voting for Ganon if he faces a stronger opponent among the vote stuffers, since it essentially has the same effect (voting more for a character in the instance of a closer match).
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:25:17 PM | Message Detail
I'm just saying that there would be fewer people voting for Ganondorf's opponent if it were Big Boss instead of Yuna, due to the relative vote drawing ability.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:30:59 PM | Message Detail
You're saying that vote stuffing for the victor won't go on if the match isn't within 55-45? I don't think that's the case. I'd bet that Ganondorf got plenty of stuffed votes yesterday, whether he needed them or not.

While we know that 61-39 is a ridiculous barrier, from a purely %ical view, it doesn't look so hopeless.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:35:03 PM | Message Detail
You're saying that vote stuffing for the victor won't go on if the match isn't within 55-45? I don't think that's the case. I'd bet that Ganondorf got plenty of stuffed votes yesterday, whether he needed them or not.

Even if there is vote stuffing in every match, there is undoubtedly more in the event of a close match.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Explicit Content | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:36:22 PM | Message Detail
Finally... the name... has returned to me.

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It's a Pinball Masquerade
Cheer up Emo kids. ~This sig was pimped by Icon's sig~
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:41:02 PM | Message Detail
Undoubtedly there's more stuffing in a close match. Yuna/Ganondorf was closer than Auron/Big Boss. Hence, more vote stuffing (on both sides). And it's got the whole "Square vs Nintendo" thing, which I think causes extra vote stuffing by default... for some silly reason.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:41:57 PM | Message Detail
No, I have Ganondorf.

Good. You don't have a thing to worry about then.

And if round 2 is the sprite round, we're so getting Bacondorf. The guy needs every vote he can get, and he's stuck with his stupid pig form.

There's no guarantee of this at all. Even assuming that CJayC sticks with the sprites in the oncoming round, it's perfectly possible that Ganon would get a new sprite that he hasn't gotten before. It wouldn't make sense for him to reuse the same sprite from the villain contest. I think it's quite likely that we may see something from Ocarina of Time or even SSBM.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:44:08 PM | Message Detail
I'd bet that Ganondorf got plenty of stuffed votes yesterday,

One could say that every match has stuffed votes, for both competitors. But, much like SFF, it's not worth talking about every time. Ganon had no questionable gains outside of a simple voter increase (this comes from the "morning vote" or whatever other specific time that voting increases).

In a much closer match, vote stuffing, on both sides, will increase dramatically, that's to the point of actually talking about.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:45:13 PM | Message Detail
I can't think of any Ganon sprites that won't cause him to underperform by 2-3%, and Auron can easily make that up.

If you believe that, one could also believe that the bracket support Ganon has will be enough to help him cancel out from a "bad picture."

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: voltch | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:51:23 PM | Message Detail
so ganon/auron=match of round 2 everyone will be watching?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:53:04 PM | Message Detail
Square vs Nintendo will give more votes by default, by stuffing or otherwise. (look at the top polls) This is the big selling factor of why Ganondorf vs Yuna had more votes, even though I went on about vote stuffing more than this.

While vote stuffing isn't really worth talking about in a 61-39 match, I'd still have to say that there would be a significant amount more in a 61-39 than a 71-29. (because more stuffers will accept that it's hopeless/worthless at 71-29)

In addition, sometimes if the match is really far off like this, people just won't vote/pity vote the other guy if they have any attachment to the loser, I'm sure. I know I do it, I know I've seen others do it. Maybe it's not a very high number either, but every bit helps.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:53:42 PM | Message Detail
Auron's "sprite" didn't look too hot against Sephiroth as well.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: voltch | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:54:43 PM | Message Detail
yeah but we don't know for sure do we i mean how much SFF was in that match anyway
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:57:19 PM | Message Detail
If Pig Ganon's sprite does indeed hurt him, it wouldn't be because it looked BAD or anything. It would be due to his human form now being his most popular and most recognizable form. And you wouldn't even have had to play a Zelda game to recognize human Ganon. It's the form that is seen during game reviews, magazine articles, trailers, etc. Plus you can even throw in the SSBM factor. You can't say the same things for Pig Ganon.

Not saying that it IS true... but Pig Ganon does have a valid reason if Ganon does indeed perform worst when in that form.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: voltch | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:58:28 PM | Message Detail
so do high vote totals favor ganon or auron?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:59:50 PM | Message Detail
yeah but we don't know for sure do we i mean how much SFF was in that match anyway

I was just saying that Auron wouldn't necessarily have the pic advantage by just looks alone. The Pig Ganon picture from LttP looks much better than that crap that Ceej used for Auron against Sephiroth (who also looked like crap...)
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/26/2005 1:02:21 PM | Message Detail
While vote stuffing isn't really worth talking about in a 61-39 match, I'd still have to say that there would be a significant amount more in a 61-39 than a 71-29. (because more stuffers will accept that it's hopeless/worthless at 71-29)

Significant? I cannot say I would agree with that. There's a certain point in which it becomes hopeless to vote stuff for either character, especially the one that is winning. Auron having 71% is not telling anyone it is any more hopeless than Ganon's 61%. You can clearly tell the difference is still insurmountable in either scenario.

There were really on two, I believe, suspcious vote gains that differed from the norm throughout yesterday's match and that was Yuna's two hourly gains at the 15 minute mark. I would honestly say that outside of that, or even with that, the vote stuffing was minimal. But why are we even discussing vote stuffing in either match? Sure, we know it happened with Yuna for a few choice updates, but it was hardly anything to get worked up over.

The higher vote totals in that last match can be attributed to two popular characters being in the poll. However, comparing how many votes Ganon receives to how many votes Auron receives isn't nearly as bad as comparing the total votes. Comparing the individual votes of each character gives you a far better picture. Auron/Big Boss is going to get less because one of the characters is not only weak, but far away from Auron. Yuna is a strong competitor and closer to Ganon, making it a high total match. But Ganon's votes shouldn't be affected by this as you're saying, or at least in large.

It may not be the "best" method, but it's more accurate and helpful to compare the individual votes than it is to compare the total, which is what I'm assuming was going on.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: voltch | Posted: 7/26/2005 1:03:52 PM | Message Detail
so anyone want to guess how many of these topics vivi/zelda will fill up.
my bet is on at least three
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/26/2005 1:08:13 PM | Message Detail
http://sc2k4.com/frog/view.php?gid=18&phid=55

Damn! You weren't kidding, Auron looks horrible in that picture. I hadn't realized he was so bad.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/26/2005 1:08:55 PM | Message Detail
so ganon/auron=match of round 2 everyone will be watching?

Sora vs. Alucard
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)
From: voltch | Posted: 7/26/2005 1:11:04 PM | Message Detail
by the way is this the site that gets the most votes on its polls? i mean i really don't see many polls that can exceed link vs cloud I in one day
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/26/2005 1:11:50 PM | Message Detail
Heroic Mario, you just repeated everything I've been saying... (-_-)

I am an invisible man. No, I am not a spook like those who haunted Edgar Allan Poe; nor am I one of your Hollywood-movie ectoplasms. I am a man of substance, of flesh and bone, fiber and liquids—and I might even be said to possess a mind. I am invisible, understand, simply because people refuse to see me. ~ The Invisible Man - Ralph Ellison

That's a good book by the way... you guys should read it.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/26/2005 1:18:27 PM | Message Detail
If 61-39 is all but hopeless, then why were the Yuna fans vote stuffing, yesterday? We realize that it is, but don't expect Joe vote stuffer to realize this. Looking purely at the %ages (as I used to before I really got into these things, and would just casually vote), I'd think to myself... "Mario can comeback, we just need a voting shift, Mario can get that 10%". Whereas with 70-30, it'd be like... not a chance.

We'll just have to disagree with the victor's votes being unaffected by a stronger opponent. I can't imagine you actually believing that the really high vote total yesterday was all because Yuna was getting more votes, and that Ganon would have won with 70% of the vote with a 90000 vote total. I don't mean to put words in your mouth, but that's what you're implying.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: voltch | Posted: 7/26/2005 1:22:00 PM | Message Detail
anyone think vivi/zelda can break 110k? maybe even 115k at max? i mean both are clearly worthy opponents and only a strong character can beat either of them. plus it's a nintendo vs square match more worthy of a round 2 match but one of them has to finish the contest without a win.
thats sad
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/26/2005 1:25:19 PM | Message Detail
But we were talking about vote stuffing for the WINNERS meaning Ganon and Auron. Yuna fans would have FAR more of an incentive to vote stuff than Ganon fans.

And he's not saying that vote stuffing caused the higher totals. The reason for higher vote totals would mostly be because Yuna draws more votes than Big Boss would. And that was the whole basis of the discussion. If Ganon drew more individual votes against a stronger opponent than Auron did against a weaker, then THEORETICALLY (meaning without vote stuffing, etc.) Ganon would be favored to win looking at vote totals alone.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Mumei | Posted: 7/26/2005 1:25:42 PM | Message Detail
anyone think vivi/zelda can break 110k? maybe even 115k at max? i mean both are clearly worthy opponents and only a strong character can beat either of them. plus it's a nintendo vs square match more worthy of a round 2 match but one of them has to finish the contest without a win.
thats sad


Ganondorf vs. Tidus (2003) - 115,738
Ganondorf vs. Magus (2003) - 109,708
Ganondorf vs. Yuna (2005) - 106,979

Maybe 110,000...

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Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/26/2005 1:25:53 PM | Message Detail
No doubt, no doubt. Vivi/Zelda should be much closer than Ganon/Yuna was, so that can only help. I bet it'll beat Ganon/Yuna by 5000-10000 votes.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/26/2005 1:26:44 PM | Message Detail
Sora vs. Alucard

I'm feeling more and more like that won't even be close now.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/26/2005 1:27:31 PM | Message Detail
Heroic Mario, you just repeated everything I've been saying... (-_-)

"You weren't kidding" was to signify a response to what you had said. I was agreeing with you as opposed to attempting to say something new, acting as though I brought it up first.

If 61-39 is all but hopeless, then why were the Yuna fans vote stuffing, yesterday?

There were questionable gains at two points, I believe. I left relatively early, so I'm not sure if they happened after that or not. But when there's vote stuffing like that, it's basically harmless. Those were Yuna's big suspcious gains and they were short lived at that. Why someone would do it? I have no idea. They obviously didn't keep it up for very long anyway.

I'd think to myself... "Mario can comeback, we just need a voting shift, Mario can get that 10%". Whereas with 70-30, it'd be like... not a chance.

But it isn't as though people aren't looking at the vote difference if they're going to bother vote stuffing. It isn't a matter of "rallying" people in that attempt.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/26/2005 1:29:59 PM | Message Detail
And he's not saying that vote stuffing caused the higher totals. The reason for higher vote totals would mostly be because Yuna draws more votes than Big Boss would. And that was the whole basis of the discussion. If Ganon drew more individual votes against a stronger opponent than Auron did against a weaker, then THEORETICALLY (meaning without vote stuffing, etc.) Ganon would be favored to win looking at vote totals alone.

I like the way you explained that.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
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