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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 169
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:07:28 AM | Message Detail
Boss should shorten the gap, but I knew there was no way that he was as strong as Ocelot.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ganondorf vs. Yuna - Bracket: Ganon - Vote: Ganon (5/6)
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:07:50 AM | Message Detail
Auron 72.23% 723
Big Boss 27.77% 278
TOTAL VOTES 1001
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:08:48 AM | Message Detail
Score-Brackets-% Right
6------4217-----94.4273180
5------10676----91.7478456
4------10124----86.4282892
3------6126-----80.7868103
2------2195-----73.8952164
1------401------35.4114713
0------54-------14.8148148

The difference in prediction percentage of high scorers and low scores is starting to increase. There are still quite a few favorites brackets left, but it shouldn't be too much longer before a group performs perfectly.

Two peoplw fell off the Top 50 today. The first was some random user named "LeonhartForever" the other one, I'm sorry to say, was LordZilong, one of the two users in the Top 50 who had CATS taking it all. He will be sorely missed. ;_;
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:08:50 AM | Message Detail
Auron should have more brackets taking him past the first round than Ganondorf did. I think bracket support between those two might be pretty evenly split, though likely favoring Ganon.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:08:57 AM | Message Detail
Auron 72.08% 764
Big Boss 27.92% 296
TOTAL VOTES 1060

A little late, but Auron appears to be slipping up now that the board vote has started slowing down.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: transience | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:09:17 AM | Message Detail
damn, Tnote is -owning- the oracle challenge. the difference between him and second is the difference between second and 30th.
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From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:11:06 AM | Message Detail
damn, Tnote is -owning- the oracle challenge. the difference between him and second is the difference between second and 30th.

Which is...
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:12:21 AM | Message Detail
Like 18 points.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ganondorf vs. Yuna - Bracket: Ganon - Vote: Ganon (5/6)
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:12:50 AM | Message Detail
30%

Auron 69.93% 1079
Big Boss 30.07% 464
TOTAL VOTES 1543

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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:12:58 AM | Message Detail
Auron 69.93% 1086
Big Boss 30.07% 467
TOTAL VOTES 1553

Under 70% for Auron.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: transience | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:13:01 AM | Message Detail
1) Heroic Viktor 330.90
2) RPGuy96 312.16
30) Darkash 295.22

all of which are miles ahead of me, of course.
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From: PiGuy96 | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:13:59 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, he's got an incredible 18 points on me, then I have 3.5 points on Alanna, and then it gets really crowded.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:14:09 AM | Message Detail
Auron should manage to hold him at around 66-67%, then increase during the day.

At least...that's what I hope.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Big Boss - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Boss (6/7)
From: rpgapzx | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:14:10 AM | Message Detail
How the heck can Ganondorf have 86% bracket support for him against a Square character relative to Zero's performance against Hayabusa?
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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th
From: voltch | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:15:34 AM | Message Detail
so how much would ocelot and solid snake be projected to get on auron?
big boss is basically anywhere in between i reckon
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:15:35 AM | Message Detail
*stands by my Auron tripling*

<_<
>_>

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This sig was pimped by icon's sig
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:16:01 AM | Message Detail
Spring Contest...but yeah, bracket-makers are weird.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Big Boss - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Boss (6/7)
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:17:03 AM | Message Detail
How the heck can Ganondorf have 86% bracket support for him against a Square character relative to Zero's performance against Hayabusa?

Well, see, that's exactly the match that made me wonder why everyone was shocked at Ganon's prediction percentage. Zero/Ryu was at 70% and that's arguably a much more "difficult" match than Ganondorf/Yuna was. I mean, some people must have known that Ganon beat Tidus, as well as how well Ganon did during the spring.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: transience | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:17:13 AM | Message Detail
Auron 69.7% 1394
Big Boss 30.3% 606
TOTAL VOTES 2000

nice numbers.
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From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:17:22 AM | Message Detail
Auron 69.72% 1395
Big Boss 30.28% 606
TOTAL VOTES 2001

And with that, I leave. Keep it up Auron!
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Auron vs. Big Boss - Bracket: Auron - Vote: Boss (6/7)
From: PiGuy96 | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:19:08 AM | Message Detail
At the 15 minute mark, this match is behind Ganondorf/Yuna by 199 votes. It has 90.2% of that match's votes, which would give it 96.5k votes by the end of the day. It's probably worthless to extrapolate that so early, but meh.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:19:37 AM | Message Detail
Awesome! tnote kicks a ton of ass, and it's nice to see someone not named kawaiifan tear-assing the rest of the oracles. Then again it's nice to see anything not kawaiifan > anything kawaiifan, but that's another issue entirely that doesn't exactly belong in this topic.

From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/26/2005 3:07:28 AM | Message Detail | #101
Boss should shorten the gap, but I knew there was no way that he was as strong as Ocelot.


On a guess, isn't Ocelot projected to get something like ~40% on Auron using 2k3 Link as a base? I don't think that picking Big Boss to score in the 30-35% range was bad at all.

My issue with Big Boss is this: only the hardcore Metal Gear Solid fans are going to vote for him, especially with that match pic. You're only to vote for Big Boss if you've cleared MGS3 (and even that's no guarantee, as a good deal of MGS3 players will probably give their loyalty to Solid after that game regardless; most casual MGS players don't care about story) or read very deeply into the MGS backstory, and it shouldn't be surprising that he has turned out to be relatively weak. I also believe that Auron is benefitting from being in a match directly after Yuna.

However, I fully expect that Auron will stabalize at around 66% and fall just short of beating Ganondorf. I call a Ganondorf victory in the 51.5-48.5 range. I think Auron may underperform by the board's standards, but still be strong regardless of what Big Boss scores on him. But Ganon has the bracket support behind him after Spring 2005, which may just be enough to get him over the top in the event of something close.

Summary: Regardless of what Auron scores in this match, I feel Ganon still wins. And if Auron doesn't do very well (by this I mean in the 66% range, given many expectations of him) against a character you barely see or hear about in three games, it only reinforces my belief. Yes, we all know the role Big Boss plays in MGS3. Somehow I doubt that the casual voters care.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:19:44 AM | Message Detail
Considering Ganon/Yuna was ahead of Link/Cloud 2004 at this time, yeah, it's probably not that useful.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:21:01 AM | Message Detail
Then again it's nice to see anything not kawaiifan > anything kawaiifan, but that's another issue entirely that doesn't exactly belong in this topic.

Then why bring it up at all like that?
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:22:45 AM | Message Detail
Auron should benefit from the day vote. I think he'll easily finish with over 70% before all is said and done. As we've seen the last two days, predicting the outcome based on the first hour hasn't worked very well.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: transience | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:22:46 AM | Message Detail
after a poor start, Big Boss is moving on up here. he's about to break 31%.
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From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:24:19 AM | Message Detail
Freudian slip. I really don't feel like giving a 6 post rant on kawaiifan's nonsense, so let's just drop it and talk about something else.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: transience | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:24:26 AM | Message Detail
...as he promptly drops half a percent.
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From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:26:11 AM | Message Detail
Auron's starting to climb again, heh.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:27:43 AM | Message Detail
I hope more than anything else that Auron gets back to 70 now, and slowly works his way to 75% somehow by the end of the day, just to beat the high spread I set.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:28:05 AM | Message Detail
Big boss is even weaker then I thought. Auron is giving a very impressive performance right now. I still don't think he's going to even make a close match with Gannon, but you never know.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:28:38 AM | Message Detail
I horribly overrated Big Boss.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:29:13 AM | Message Detail
At this point, there isn't going to be any MGS characters that are really impressive, unless Snake somehow does something, but I can see him almost losing to Zelda/Vivi.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: chaos knight | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:29:14 AM | Message Detail
Yuna went pretty much 60-40 with Ganon. If Auron can't do better than that, something is horribly wrong in the universe.
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[Player] A bunch of JP just trained me!
[GM] Well you're still here, so they obviously didn't do it right.
LBSJ
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:29:38 AM | Message Detail
Auron/Ganon is going to be a good match, but the picture is going to rank among the most hideous we've ever seen, I feel.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:30:33 AM | Message Detail
I hope more than anything else that Auron gets back to 70 now, and slowly works his way to 75% somehow by the end of the day, just to beat the high spread I set.

Somehow?

I was thinking 75% before the match, and there is no way Auron isn't going to increase throughout the match significantly. The tripling must occur! >_>

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This sig was pimped by icon's sig
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:31:11 AM | Message Detail
I just can't see Vivi or Zelda beating Snake. Then again, I never thought Sora could beat Frog...or Master Chief for that matter, so I suppose anything is possible.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:31:15 AM | Message Detail
If the next round is sprites, Auron wins. There's no way a Ganon sprite is going to compete with an in-game Auron pic.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:32:00 AM | Message Detail
When I say close match I mean Auron being able to seriously challenge Gannon to the point where those of us with gannon in our brackets start to worry. That doesn't mean he won't be able to keep gannon to about a 5,000 vote lead or so.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:32:12 AM | Message Detail
I wouldn't be surprised to see OoT Ganon or even SSBM Ganon against Auron. 128 bit vs. 16-bit sprite seems so inbalanced.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:32:33 AM | Message Detail
The side poll is awesome, by the way. I picked the second option.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: voltch | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:33:17 AM | Message Detail
well looks like three points down the drain for me.
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Crono801 | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:33:26 AM | Message Detail
I picked the second option as well.
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Trivia XV: Dragostea Din Tei
Yoblazer'd
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:34:12 AM | Message Detail
Third option for me. Never cried, but I've come close a few times.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:34:22 AM | Message Detail
It's rather fitting that Auron/Big Boss is running alongside that poll, since they're both in games with tear-jerking endings.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:35:25 AM | Message Detail
I wouldn't be surprised to see Ganon get a picture from SSBM as opposed to ALttP or LoZ.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:36:05 AM | Message Detail
128 bit vs. 16-bit sprite seems so inbalanced.

I wouldn't put it past CJayC to do it, though. In 2003 alone, we had Metroid 1 Samus against in-game Squall (badly pixelated, but the pic was still horribly imbalanced), in-battle Cloud against Mario 1 Bowser, in-battle Sephiroth against an Alucard sprite, an unrecognizable Snake pic against in-battle Ryu, and if you go into the realm of 2004 you get the mother of all ****-ups: Sprite Frog in all his glory versus Solid ****.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:36:27 AM | Message Detail
I'd laugh if he'd get LoZ sprite. But seeing as he's listed as Ganondorf, not Ganon, I'd think Ceej would go with a OoT at the very least.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: The Doppleganger | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:36:33 AM | Message Detail
*Also picked the 2nd option* MGS3 made me tear up a little >_>
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
*Is now in need of a sig
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/26/2005 12:37:20 AM | Message Detail
Come to think of it, I should have picked the first option. FF7, FFX, MGS3, FF9, and especially MGS2 have all made me cry before. There are probably others.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
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