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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 168
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:50:45 PM | Message Detail
You mean to assume a static Yuna and bring Ganondorf down?

I don't think that would be correct. But if you compare Auron's direct match with Sephiroth and say there's no SFF, Auron loses with just over 47%.

If you try to adjust him through other opponents to get rid of the SFF factor which is basically what RPGuy tried to do, it's a 53.5-46.5 Auron victory.

There's no way
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:51:12 PM | Message Detail
Based on a static Yuna, Ganon drops to 31.13 on Link, meaning Auron wins with over 53%.

Based on a static Ganon, Yuna moves up to 26.38 on Link, meaning Knuckles wins with 50.67% now.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:51:34 PM | Message Detail
Er... the rest of that sentence got cut off there at the bottom. Ignore that....
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: transience | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:52:24 PM | Message Detail
it's tough to tell. you'd have to make a lot of assumptions, such as:

if Sp2k5 Ganon is accurate, Yuna's at about 27%, or Yoshi's level. if Big Boss is equal to Ocelot, or about 23.5%, Auron's gonna have to outperform Ganon by about 5% to be equal.
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From: TheKoolAidShoto | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:54:41 PM | Message Detail
at least we can all agree that Ryu owns Bowser with a DenjinHadoken to the face.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:55:40 PM | Message Detail
Speaking of that, I'm really hoping that the Bowser/Ryu match picture has Ryu firing a Hadouken facing SMRPG Bowser throwing Mario.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:56:09 PM | Message Detail
Assuming Ocelot's stat from the VC is valid and won't be another anomaly. We won't know that til the 20XX division, which is a LONG way to go...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:56:49 PM | Message Detail
Speaking of that, I'm really hoping that the Bowser/Ryu match picture has Ryu firing a Hadouken facing SMRPG Bowser throwing Mario.

ABSOLUTE AWESOMENESS!!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: transience | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:57:55 PM | Message Detail
yeah; trying to judge Auron/Ganon is a lot of ifs. I think we'll know more when we see Big Boss in action tomorrow. if Auron can't double Big Boss, I'd expect a Ganon win. if he does, we've got a match.
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From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:58:20 PM | Message Detail
I highly doubt people voted based on who was a better villain. I mean seriously, Sephiroth is the third strongest character in this contest period. You think people would like him LESS based on who's a better villain if they like him that much overall?

Besides, I hardly heard of anyone voting as such and I doubt there was a large behind the scenes movement of voters doing so. The name of the contest wasn't Best. Villain. Ever. It was Got Villains? It STILL was a popularity contest and listed the same stipulations as the Summer Contests.

And about Sephiroth getting anti-votes and such, he was STILL able to beat Liquid far worse than anyone would have expected him too, even WITHOUT 20XXDF. So there must have been something about Ganon and Bowser for them to be the ones to overperform against Sephiroth.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:59:47 PM | Message Detail
Maybe it's because they're just that ****ing aw- oh wait, Ganondorf, nevermind >_>
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:00:10 PM | Message Detail
Ganondorf 62% 50796
Yuna 38% 31131
TOTAL VOTES 81927


Wow... and Yuna will probably be taking the night vote to boot.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 7/7 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:01:06 PM | Message Detail
Well, if it's not anti-votes, then we can talk franchise voting. After all, FFVII destroyed MGS, too.

if Auron can't double Big Boss, I'd expect a Ganon win. if he does, we've got a match.

I wouldn't go that far. I wouldn't be surprised to see Big Boss as a mid-tier character.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:01:27 PM | Message Detail
Whatever that something is, it's not carrying over to the summer contest so it hardly matters.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:02:39 PM | Message Detail
Well, if it's not anti-votes, then we can talk franchise voting. After all, FFVII destroyed MGS, too.

FFVII destroyed EVERYTHING, though...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: transience | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:03:05 PM | Message Detail
I wouldn't go that far. I wouldn't be surprised to see Big Boss as a mid-tier character.

so do you think Big Boss is equal or stronger than Yuna? I'd take Yuna and not think twice.
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From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:03:31 PM | Message Detail
It didn't destroy OoT, which is Ganon's biggest role...But still, some do say FFVII beat MGS worse than it SHOULD have.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:04:45 PM | Message Detail
so do you think Big Boss is equal or stronger than Yuna? I'd take Yuna and not think twice.

Even if Big Boss got 35% on Auron, he'd still be weaker than 2003 Yuna. She would win, but it wouldn't be a slaughter, by any means.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:05:06 PM | Message Detail
Well, not destroy persay, but people were expecting FF7vOoT to be a 50-50 affair. I remember the disappointment on the board that night. Specially freshly coming out of CTvLttP, which was the best match that whole contest.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:06:28 PM | Message Detail
I have a weird feeling about Ocelot/Pac-Man. I have Ocelot winning in my bracket, but I just have this feeling that it will either be closer than expected or Pac-Man might upset Ocelot. Can someone tell me how much Ocelot would be projected to get on Pac-Man?

And I also think Vivi/Zelda will be the new MGS/FFT.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 6/7 points
Current Match Prediction: Auron vs. Big Boss
From: transience | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:07:49 PM | Message Detail
CT/LTTP was the best match I ever saw. that was two heavyweights going at it, as opposed to two mid-tier characters like Frog and Master Chief.
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From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:07:55 PM | Message Detail
Well, Ocelot was stronger than Kefka in the Spring Contest, for what it's worth. Pac-Man might make it unexpectedly close, but I don't think he'll win.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:12:26 PM | Message Detail
In 2004 he lost to Luigi who lost to Yoshi who apparently also suffered some back SFF to Link.

If you use 2003 Yoshi though, Pac-Man is expected around 38% on Ocelot.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:13:24 PM | Message Detail
Auron wins 75-25 over Big Boss.

>_>
<_<

Yeah, I went there.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:13:37 PM | Message Detail
That's with a static Bowser anyway.

If you use the official Extrapolated for the VC it's 66-33.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:21:19 PM | Message Detail
I think Yoshi and Luigi may surprise some since they were behind Bowser and possible SFF both years (Bowser/Yoshi, Luigi/Yoshi, Link/Samus). It may not be much, but don't be surprised if they do better than expected.

Although their positions in this contest are wasted. Luigi/KOS-MOS may look good on the surface, but I think he will take it by at least the same margin that Tidus beat Shadow. I don't think he has ANY chance against Tifa. Yoshi has been wasted again because he hasn't had ANYONE who can even NEARLY challenge him. His losses weren't even close.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: cyko | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:21:33 PM | Message Detail
yeah; trying to judge Auron/Ganon is a lot of ifs. I think we'll know more when we see Big Boss in action tomorrow. if Auron can't double Big Boss, I'd expect a Ganon win. if he does, we've got a match.

well, unfortunately, even tomorrow's match will tell us very little about what will happen in Ganondorf vs. Auron. Big Boss could potentially be anywhere from a Solid Snake level contender to Carl Johnson level almost-fodder.

*MGS3 SPOILER ALERT*
.
.
.


that being said, my prediction is that Big Boss will crash and burn tomorrow. i dunno where that picture is from but it certainly doesn't look anything like Naked Snake or Solid Snake or Liquid Snake or Vapor Snake or any kind of Snake. he looks more like an old pirate who decided to becoma a businessman. that pic isn't gonna help any casual-voters draw the connection between Big Boss and Naked Snake. i know that i would have had no idea if you guys hadn't told me they are the same person.

.
.
.
.
*END SPOILERS*

so, based on that, i really think Big Boss will perform worse than Ocelot and have a hard time breaking 30%.


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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer
is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:23:04 PM | Message Detail
"You think people would like him LESS based on who's a better villain if they like him that much overall?"

The problem is the mentality of people on this site. Link could beat Cloud 75-25 and the very next day everybody would be "FF7 always wins". For that alone I think there was overwhelming anti-voting that brought Seph down significantly because he really was the only character that could actually win.
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:23:23 PM | Message Detail
That's the Big Boss official artwork pic from Sons of Liberty.

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Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:23:48 PM | Message Detail
Well, at the end of MGS3, he was awarded the title of "Big Boss," so they should be able to make the connection as long as they finished the game.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:24:35 PM | Message Detail
If Big Boss does well, then it means good things for Solid Snake. :D
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Summer 2005 Contest - 6/7 points
Current Match Prediction: Auron vs. Big Boss
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:24:55 PM | Message Detail
CT/LTTP was the best match I ever saw. that was two heavyweights going at it, as opposed to two mid-tier characters like Frog and Master Chief.

We need another Game Contest, I'd kill to see a Halo/StarCraft rematch.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: cyko | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:25:16 PM | Message Detail
That's the Big Boss official artwork pic from Sons of Liberty.

how much of a role did he play in MGS2 anyways? i played a bit of it, but not very far into the story.

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer
is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!
From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:25:35 PM | Message Detail
"but people were expecting FF7vOoT to be a 50-50 affair."

Which I could never understand, since it was so obvious that FF7 would murder all.
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:25:56 PM | Message Detail
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:23:48 PM | Message Detail
Well, at the end of MGS3, he was awarded the title of "Big Boss," so they should be able to make the connection as long as they finished the game.


I don't give them that much credit. >_>

I expect Big Boss to bomb... and bomb horribly. The Tripling will occur!

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From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:26:41 PM | Message Detail
*MGS2 SPOILERS*


Well, he really can't play much of a role in MGS2 considering he's already dead. However, Solidus Snake has the aspirations of wanting to become the next Big Boss, and they sort of look alike. Doubt it'll help, but who knows?


*END SPOILERS*
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:27:02 PM | Message Detail
We need another Game Contest, I'd kill to see a Halo/StarCraft rematch.

It would be so amazingly hilarious if Big Rigs were in it. I'd also like to see Katamari Damacy and RE4 in it.

And we need an MGS/FFT rematch.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 6/7 points
Current Match Prediction: Auron vs. Big Boss
From: SonicRaptor | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:28:37 PM | Message Detail
Which I could never understand, since it was so obvious that FF7 would murder all.

FF7 was practically a lock to win that contest on this board, but that was thankfully overshadowed by the high-quality matches we had.
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Today's subliminal thought is:
From: transience | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:29:11 PM | Message Detail
I wonder what new games should make a game contest?

GTA:SA
Katamari Damacy
God of War
TOS

and, of course, MM2/3.
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From: cyko | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:29:24 PM | Message Detail
yeesh. that's all he was mentioned in MGS2? man,Ceej really should have used Big Boss's other identity. i have a feeling he could have done much better.

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer
is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:30:13 PM | Message Detail
I know. I doubt anyone nominated Big Boss without Naked Snake in mind.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:30:49 PM | Message Detail
Considering he's technically not Big Boss until the end of the game...I dunno. Plus, Solid Snake has a match the next day, and I have a feeling he's still going to be getting Snake Eater pictures. After all, the picture of him on the banner is from MGS3.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:31:29 PM | Message Detail
Well I'd say he's gotta be one of the most significant parts to the story... even if he isn't really featured all that much.

But I think it's evident that he didn't get his popularity from MGS2, I'm willing to bet "The Boss" entries were counted as "Big Boss" entries simply because there was no clear distinction made between the two when tallying noms. There was a HUGE board push for The Boss, while Big Boss/Naked Snake votes were hardly ever talked about during nominations... not that the board controls it, but it makes no sense for him to do so now. He would have been nominated as Naked Snake moreso than Big Boss, as he's not referred to as Big Boss until I don't know, the last 5 minutes of the game.

It doesn't make sense for him to get in now and not before under that name, and I'm expecting him to be weak. Extremely weak. There's no doubt in my mind about how weak he will perform.

*waves to my future self reading this 7 1/2 hours later and getting mocked*

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From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:33:09 PM | Message Detail
The problem is the mentality of people on this site. Link could beat Cloud 75-25 and the very next day everybody would be "FF7 always wins". For that alone I think there was overwhelming anti-voting that brought Seph down significantly because he really was the only character that could actually win.

Yeah, I would normally agree but Sephiroth match against Liquid Snake stands against that. Why would voters wait until the semi-finals to start anti-voting Sephiroth? And all three of those matches brought in big numbers.

There were 6000 votes separating Seph/Liquid and Seph/Bowser and 6000 votes separating Seph/Bowser and Seph/Ganon. Bowser and Ganon did significantly better than Liquid. And with only 6000 more votes against Bowser, I doubt that anti-voters played a role, unless you're saying that all of the 6000 new voters were Seph anti-voters. It would be a different story if it was only Ganondorf that was stronger against Sephiroth...
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:33:14 PM | Message Detail
Well I think Big Boss was evident in the story, just because he wasn't around for the actual game doesn't mean he wasn't an integral part of it. Even though, he'll be weak. I'm expecting him to be extreme fodder.

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From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:33:40 PM | Message Detail
You're probably right. Sometimes I get the feeling that CJayC doesn't know the storyline of MGS3.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:34:03 PM | Message Detail
Well, Big Boss is frequently mentioned in the original Metal Gear Solid, and the connection to Solid and Liquid is firmly made.

I don't think Ceej accidently confused Big Boss with The Boss, since most of his nominations probably came as Naked Snake.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:34:12 PM | Message Detail
Which I could never understand, since it was so obvious that FF7 would murder all.

Well, if you remember the hype coming out of E3 2004 and the TP trailers, many here were claiming Zelda would be unstoppable. Hell, some expected an all Zelda Final Four, to which it ironically came down to a No Zelda one...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:37:08 PM | Message Detail
Sorry for seperating this into so many posts....

He has pretty much 0 picture recognition, other than, that's the artstyle of MGS characters, but if I wasn't hardcore into MGS I doubt I would know that, or know who that was by just looking at the pic. And unless you were competely enthralled into MGS3, and played the other MGS' the name Big Boss isn't going to stay in your head from the last 5 minutes of the game, because it will mean nothing to you, because in MGS3 you finally discover that it is him (not that you do this in the last 5 minutes, unless you've never played the other games, because it's blatantly obvious) So what it comes down to is, I don't think people are gonna recognize him.

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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/25/2005 4:40:24 PM | Message Detail
And they were fools. Again, there was never a fraction of a doubt in my mind that FF7 had it wrapped up from beginning to end and there wouldn't have been one even if Cloud wasn't the reigning champion. It's the game this site was built on, period. If you thought OoT/FF7 was 50/50 you just had no friggin' clue. I'd have called you an idiot then and I'd do it again now.
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"
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