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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 168
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:19:45 PM | Message Detail
I'm confused. Why is everyone suddenly shouting about vote stuffers in this match? Are the updates really that much stranger than they have been in the past?
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: transience | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:20:13 PM | Message Detail
I don't think it's coincidence that Yuna is being called for vote stuffing when Ganon is the huge board favourite / is "underperforming". if it was the other way around, people would be saying "yeah, go Ganon! kick her ass!"

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From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:21:23 PM | Message Detail
I don't think it's coincidence that Yuna is being called for vote stuffing when Ganon is the huge board favourite / is "underperforming". if it was the other way around, people would be saying "yeah, go Ganon! kick her ass!"

Damn straight! Smack that ass, Ganny!
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:22:37 PM | Message Detail
There has been underperformance in every match so far but two. Are all those cause of vote stuffing as well?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:22:46 PM | Message Detail
The vote stuffing seems to have stopped for now.

http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Yuna.PNG

If you didn't see it in the last topic thats a graph of votes per 15 minutes for Yuna. The three spikes near the right side occured at 10:15, 11:15 and 12:15. Here's Ganondorf's votes per 15 minute graph for comparason:
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/Ganondorf.PNG

as for vote stuffing, who would cheat for Yuna? I mean, it's Yuna. no one really likes Yuna. and it's not like the match is close

Perhaps they were testing what ever they were using to vote stuff. It's not that noticable in a blow out. If I didn't bother to make a detailed track of the votes, people would probably have shrugged it off as a random percentage drop.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:24:18 PM | Message Detail
I'm not even sure Ganondorf is underperforming anyway. Remember, Yuna's had a new game, and the Ganondorf/Magus/Tidus triad has been hard to pin down in the stats since 2k3. This is pretty much what I was expecting.

I'm just surprised at all the Ganondorf love. While he isn't bad, he doesn't seem the sort of character that is really capable of being someone's absolute favorite.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: transience | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:25:46 PM | Message Detail
I put Ganon with 59% in the oracle challenge. I don't think you can double a decent Square character unless you're an elite character or with SFF, and I don't think Ganondorf is that elite.
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From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:27:30 PM | Message Detail
12:15 doesn't apply as much to your study, TRE... that was just the start of a surge in performance that we've seen since.

The other two things are strange... but they could easily just be anomalies. Besides, it isn't as if Ganondorf stopped gaining.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:27:39 PM | Message Detail
10:00 | Ganondorf | 29109 | +1166 | 62.30% | Yuna | 17615 | +624 | 37.70% | Lead of 11494 | (Up 542)
10:15 | Ganondorf | 30312 | +1203 | 62.22% | Yuna | 18408 | +793 | 37.78% | Lead of 11904 | (Up 410)
10:30 | Ganondorf | 31456 | +1144 | 62.30% | Yuna | 19032 | +624 | 37.70% | Lead of 12424 | (Up 520)

11:00 | Ganondorf | 33802 | +1148 | 62.49% | Yuna | 20286 | +606 | 37.51% | Lead of 13516 | (Up 542)
11:15 | Ganondorf | 34841 | +1039 | 62.33% | Yuna | 21057 | +771 | 37.67% | Lead of 13784 | (Up 268)
11:30 | Ganondorf | 35905 | +1064 | 62.41% | Yuna | 21626 | +569 | 37.59% | Lead of 14279 | (Up 495)

12:00 | Ganondorf | 37908 | +0976 | 62.43% | Yuna | 22817 | +588 | 37.57% | Lead of 15091 | (Up 388)
12:15 | Ganondorf | 38822 | +0914 | 62.26% | Yuna | 23536 | +719 | 37.74% | Lead of 15286 | (Up 195)
12:30 | Ganondorf | 39714 | +0892 | 62.23% | Yuna | 24106 | +570 | 37.77% | Lead of 15608 | (Up 322)

Those are the three updates inquestion and the updates around them. Suddenly getting 200 more votes than normal three times in one match each an hour away from each other seems like more than a coincidence to me.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: Mumei | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:28:11 PM | Message Detail
While he isn't bad, he doesn't seem the sort of character that is really capable of being someone's absolute favorite.

Hide from Moltar. =P
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Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:31:08 PM | Message Detail
We just broke 75,000 votes. Nice.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:35:45 PM | Message Detail
Well, the gains since 12:30 for Yuna have been odd too.

12:45 - +691
13:00 - +562
13:15 - +687
13:30 - +545
13:45 - +539
14:00 - +481
14:15 - +525
14:30 - +464

Either the vote stuffers were at it on and off for 3 hours (that'd be strange, in a match like this) or Yuna's just having a weird day.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:48:22 PM | Message Detail
The only odd samples there are 12:45 and 13:15. And 13:15 coincentally matches the xx:15 pattern. *cough*
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Prometheus321 | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:48:38 PM | Message Detail
*tag*
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:49:32 PM | Message Detail
What about 12:45? Vote stuffers get their clocks mixed up?
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:55:07 PM | Message Detail
The match where vote-stuffing was the most obvious (at least, the match where I bothered tracking updates and paying attention the most) was Starcraft/Halo. Halo was all over the damned place.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:55:33 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 2:56:57 PM | Message Detail
And apparently your math sucks.

Yuna gained 591 on that update.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:02:35 PM | Message Detail
I dunno. I'm just betting that anomalies like this have happened throughout past matches too, without any sort of vote stuffing involved.

Seriously. Think about it. This is what would have to happen for the match to end up like it has.

Vote Stuffer's League: July 24th.

Vote Stuffer 1: Alright! Tomorrow is the big Yuna vs. Ganondorf match, where we put our fiendish plan into action. We have to know for sure if CJayC can detect our cheating methods before they are of any use to us... so here's what we're gonna do. Every hour, between the top of the hour and a quarter past, put all your efforts into castin those extra votes. We'll do this, oh, four or five times. If we don't hear anything from CJayC, we'll know that we've found how to break through his defenses!

Vote Stuffer 2: ...Why does it all have to be at the same time?

Vote Stuffer 3: Why aren't we trying this in a closer match, since CJayC won't even be checking for cheaters in something like this?

Vote Stuffer 4: Why four or five times?

Vote Stuffer 1: ...Um... SHUT UP!


It doesn't make any sense as a plan.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:03:56 PM | Message Detail
There's only one person though. The hourly thing implies that it's a cheating script designed to go off every hour to avoid blatant detection instead of instaneously doing votes like sloppy Starcraft.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:04:27 PM | Message Detail
Oops.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:05:46 PM | Message Detail
Alright. Then let's see what happens during this next update. The most recent :15 didn't seem to have any spike.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:06:41 PM | Message Detail
Yeah. It's already stopped since then. At least I think so.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:07:47 PM | Message Detail
That make sense though? I'll admit, I know little about these kinds of things, but is this the kind of thing you can just turn off? Would it make any sense to just turn it off?
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:08:53 PM | Message Detail
The only way to make a cheating script is to have it automatically go down through a list of proxies.

The amount of proxies are limited. Once you run out of proxies that you know about, no more cheating.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:08:54 PM | Message Detail
I'm planning a trip to LA (from NY) in May for the E3 event. Not only will Orbitz be losing my business, but they will also be losing the business of everyone that's going with me. They've lost thousands of dollars from you to me to my direct friends alone.

I sent them a nice E-mail to wrap things up.

-ngamer


Heh, awesome. Maddox seriously wins the internets.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:16:02 PM | Message Detail
If this was some sort of automatic thing, though, would it make sense for it to extend over 15 minutes or more? Because the biggest gains for Yuna during those suspicious 15-minute periods are spread over different specific times... One was biggest from :00 to :05, one was biggest from :05 to :10, one was biggest from :10 to :15.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:17:16 PM | Message Detail
Match 8: (2) Auron vs. (7) Big Boss

Past Performance

Auron


Summer 2002
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2003
Beat Miles “Tails” Prower, 64.47% - 35.53%
Lost to Cloud Strife, 27.80% - 72.20%
Ranked: 20th

Summer 2004
Beat Scorpion, 64.85% - 35.15%
Beat Ness, 65.04% - 34.96%
Lost to Sephiroth, 32.30% - 67.70%
Ranked: 12th

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Big Boss

Summer 2002
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2003
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2004
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Analysis

Another Vet vs. Newcomer match. Here we Auron from Final Fantasy X and we also have Big Boss from Metal Gear Solid 3. This match could potentially become close, but the match can also turn out to be a huge blowout. This could be a quiet match for us, but like most of the matches we’ve had so far in this contest it will probably be far from it.

Now from what I’ve heard Big Boss’s supporters say this match could be very close if Big Boss gets a picture that looks like Solid Snake. I guess Big Boss somehow resembles Solid Snake in Metal Gear Solid 3, but from the match picture we’re getting looks nothing like Solid Snake. So for this match we are getting only Big Boss’s strength, but even if he got that picture I don’t think it could make such a difference.

Nothing new has really happened to Auron. He is schedule to make an appearance in Kingdom Hearts 2, which is coming out soon. Now another thing to make a note of is that Auron faced Sephiroth last year and might’ve suffered SFF against him, but the problem here is that since in 2k3 he could’ve also suffer SFF we can’t use his previous year’s number. So the only characters number we could use is Tails and Scorpion, but none of them seem to agree with each other. If we use Tails Auron gains a little, but Scorpion drops, but if we use Scorpion that will put Auron over Magus. So whoever you choose to use will be different from other people. Note I’ll be using Tails.

Another weird thing about Auron is that out of the three matches he’s won the difference between them is 0.57%. That could easily be explained that the characters he’s versed are simply close to each other or it could mean that he performs exactly like the same in each match. The second option may seem a little crazy, but we’ll never know since both Tails and Scorpion aren’t in the contest and Ness is going to suffer massive SFF against Mario in round 2. Funny thing is I’m expecting Big Boss to score around that number.

Now where is the best place for Big Boss to rank with? Solid Snake, IMO is a little too strong from what I expect, then there’s Raiden who probably got SFF by Snake in 2k3. There’s also Liquid Snake, but with two completely different performances in the two contests he would be unreliable. So the best person to use will be Ocelot because he performed okay in the villains contest and he would get 35% against Auron, but then again that contest was seriously messed up.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Auron over Big Boss

charmander6000’s Prediction: Auron wins, 65.25% - 34.75%

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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:17:50 PM | Message Detail
Could be set to run an hour after it finishes. And the script could take varying amounts of time to run depending on the status of the proxies and their specific speeds.

I don't care though. I'll admit there was cheating but in the end it was only about an extra 600 votes.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: transience | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:18:54 PM | Message Detail
hmm....... Yuna vs. Big Boss, Yuna wins, right?
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From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:18:57 PM | Message Detail
True. Doesn't change much statswise.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:20:53 PM | Message Detail
YES

Those free sites really do work ^_^ Free DS Came in :)
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 5/5
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Frog Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:21:28 PM | Message Detail
Last update only gained 463... even less than the one before it, which had 487.

So yeah, if anything happened, it's over. And it doesn't change the fact that things went a tad different than the ole X-Stats expected.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:26:30 PM | Message Detail
A tad? 3% going by 2k3/2k4 Ganon and 6% going by Villian's Contest Ganon isn't a tad _-.
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 5/5
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Frog Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:27:50 PM | Message Detail
3% is a tad taking into account the circumstances.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:28:14 PM | Message Detail
For 2k3-2k4 it is still in reasonable amount, especially since Yuna gain from FFX2
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:29:09 PM | Message Detail
True..

But for Villian's Contest Ganon _--
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 5/5
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Frog Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:31:05 PM | Message Detail
People who thought Ganondorf's performance against Seph was due to an increase was a little crazy anyway. There was no real reason for one. And you don't just jump to performing 42% against Sephiroth out of nowhere. SPECIAL CIRCUMSTANCES PEOPLE>
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:32:45 PM | Message Detail
Ganondorf 62.03% 49625
Yuna 37.97% 30375
TOTAL VOTES 80000

Very nice.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:33:29 PM | Message Detail
The VC was pretty much mainly all special circumstances in the end anyway. Since it was best villain instead of just best character, the villains get more support in that one. Specially when its villain vs villain...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:34:08 PM | Message Detail
80k with 9 hours to go. Pretty damn impressive...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: DragoonsKill91 | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:34:28 PM | Message Detail
i was away for the frog match so i surprised to see riku actualy get close... (wonders what that means for Sora if anything)
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Man I hate signitures. It's impossible to decide what to put here!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:35:09 PM | Message Detail
I would imagine that the Villains Contest either featured a significant amount of franchise voting, or there was a lot of anti-voting against Sephiroth considering everyone knew he was gonna win anyway.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:35:43 PM | Message Detail
True..

But for Villian's Contest Ganon _--


I used Ganondorf as the base, which is also why I have Samus > Sephiroth
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:37:47 PM | Message Detail
or there was a lot of anti-voting against Sephiroth considering everyone knew he was gonna win anyway.

I wouldn't be surprised at all, really...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:40:11 PM | Message Detail
Another alternative would be to look at Bowser as the static one. And that perhaps Ganondorf was overrated in the stats as suspected.

The new result for Ganondorf is 32.4 on 2K3 Link

This projects him at about 63.5 on 2K3 Yuna. Accounting for a smaller Yuna increase for people who have a hard time swallowing 3%. I'm happy with 3% though.

The kicker to this one is that it also projects him to 57.4% on 2K3 Alucard. Not far from his actual performance. Not bad.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:41:27 PM | Message Detail
Ganondorf 62.03% 50005
Yuna 37.97% 30606
TOTAL VOTES 80611
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: rpgapzx | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:43:06 PM | Message Detail
At 3:40PST this match has
TOTAL VOTES 80535

Comparison:
Ness/CJ 74784
Mario/JD 74271


Where they ended:
Ness/CJ: 99525
Mario/JD(with additional votes tacked on): 99126

We'll probably be on pace for 105k
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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:47:10 PM | Message Detail
Well, even though we haven't seen how Auron will perform in this one yet, how would Auron fair against this Ganon with what we have him at now?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 7/25/2005 3:50:15 PM | Message Detail
*shrug* I took Auron, so I'm a little biased on that front...but nothing I've seen today has me quaking in my boots.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
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