Ganon is really taking off with the day vote. Good stuff.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

err..

Considering CJ was predicted to beat Ness with 55%, Zero/Ganon underperforming by 3%, Frog was supposed to double, Lloyd was supposed to double..

Yeah, the stats were ****ed..
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 6/6
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Ganondorf Tomorrow: Auron

The stats are only based on a static performance from everyone. Which means if a person likes A better then B and B better then C and C better then D, he MUST like A better then C and D And B better then D.

And if 51 out of 100 people like frog better then X and 60 out of 100 people like X better then Y, this must mean about 61 people like frog better then Y, which is of course nonsense. Frog as we have seen has a loyal fanbase who always vote Frog. It doesn't matter wat person he is up against. I bet Frog would get between 40 and 60 percent against more then half of the characters because the people who vote on frog will always vote on him.

Therefore if you want to predict you almost always have to put a few % up or down from what the stats say and you will have a nice prediction.
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190/192 points in sc2004
tiebrakowned by nifboy

Looks like I underestimated FFX-2, another notch on my belt of SC2K5 ****-ups. Damn, in terms of predictions and side contests, I'm having a terrible year.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

CJ was GUESSED to beat Ness with 55. There's no stats for that.

Yuna has FFX-2. Zero was involved with a shady division and Ryu H. also got a ninja pic.

Frog's performance was also based on guess work.

The only thing really bad with the actual stats so far is Lloyd Vs. Wesker. And everyone knew the villain contest stats sucked to begin with. That's no secret.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15

The only thing really bad with the actual stats so far is Lloyd Vs. Wesker. And everyone knew the villain contest stats sucked to begin with. That's no secret.

Well if you brought Wesker up to what was expected and didn't overestimate Lloyd you wouldn't be so surprised
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

You've really gotta trust the 2k3 Yuna more. 2k3 Dorf puts Yuna way too close to Knuckles.

What?! You don't have to trust 2003 Yuna at all. I don't care what you think of FFX-2, it is more than reasonable to think it provided her with around 2.5% of a boost. There's no reason to put the blame on Ganon here. Anyone thinking Yuna did not increase from that is simply being stupid.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

An underperformance can't be TOTALLY on FFX-2; There is a good mixture of both : FFX-2 and Ganon being overrated
Sephiroth's Spring 2005 value is flawed..you know that.

And it cannot because why? You act as though the increase from FFX-2 is unreasonable. It's perfectly within reason to expect Yuna to increase from a game that sold over a million copies, is one of the few characters to be in two Final Fantasy titles, and both of them are popular. Sure, FFX-2 isn't as popular as FFX, but it doesn't need to be. Yuna got most of her strength from FFX, and she can only boost by getting a leading role in a sequel. Roughly 2.5% of an increase is hardly something to start raising an eyebrow at. It makes complete sense to blame this on Yuna's increase as opposed to Ganon's decrease.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Everything HM has said on this page is 100% true. If you try and deny it, a rabid pack of flying squirrels will bust down your door tonight while you are sleeping and gnaw away at your sack.

---
Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

Assuming you even have a sack.
---
This signature avaliable for rent.

2k3/2k4 Ganon's estimated % against Sephiroth: 39%
2k3/2k4 Ganon's estimated % against Yuna: 65%

Ok..I would say 2% from FFX-2, 1% from Ganon being overrated..

Villian's Contest Ganon's estimated % against Sephiroth : 42%
Villian's Contest Ganon's estimated % against Yuna : 68%

Ok..this just proves the VC stats are bull****.... FFX-2 accounting for a 6% gain..__-.....

Current Ganon's estimated % against Sephiroth : 36%
Current Ganon's % against Yuna : 62%

Now, lets say Ganon dropped 1% and 2% can be pointed to FFX-2....That puts Ganon slightly ahead of Zero and Snake..

What have we learned?

1) Ganon and possibly Bowser's Villians Contest numbers are bull****...6% underperformance my ass...

2) Ganon is slightly weaker than his 2k3/2k4 value so far..

I expect the % to increase so Ganon ends up equal to his 2k3/2k4 levels.. but now that the Villian's Contest stats are proven bull****..Bowser's chances against Ryu has took a turn for the worse..
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 6/6
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Ganondorf Tomorrow: Auron

ARE YOU TRYING TO DENY IT GOOD SIR!?!

---
Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

err Bowser is the one playing catchup..and with Ganon's showing making him look weaker....

Bowser is only playing catch up if Snake gets his full adjustment; otherwise, Snake is the one who has to catch up with Bowser from a statistical standpoint.

Bowser is 3% behind in the X-Stats to begin with..Factor in Snake's inevitable MGS3 boost and Bowser looking weaker..

Bowser is 2% behind Snake in the stats and he is projected to gather 47% against him. That, again, is with Snake's full adjustment, something that may not be accurate to begin with. You can also factor in what looked to be a potential boost from Bowser from the Spring. Yes, yes, I'm sure today is just making those so wrong. But no one was expecting Bowser to be above Mario to begin with. When you look at it, Sephiroth decreased, Ganon barely increased (not even worth noting), and Bowser goes to 32% on 2004 Link. It's around a 2% increase; nothing ridiculous and nothing small.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Instead of all this rambling, I can't believe this hasn't been done yet.

ziiiiiiip

*urinates on the x-stats*

Thank you.

---
Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

The major issue with all of that is that you're assuming Sephiroth remained the same, which makes everything look like ****.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Snake's full adjustment doesn't even factor in MGS3 which should cancel out Bowser's increase..which leaves Bowser still getting a mere 47% on Snake..
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 6/6
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Ganondorf Tomorrow: Auron

I expect the % to increase so Ganon ends up equal to his 2k3/2k4 levels.. but now that the Villian's Contest stats are proven bull****..Bowser's chances against Ryu has took a turn for the worse..

I still surprised about the low support Ryu is getting. Sure I like Bowser more, but without the spring contest, Ryu beats Bowser is every year.
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

Snake's full adjustment doesn't even factor in MGS3 which should cancel out Bowser's increase..which leaves Bowser still getting a mere 47% on Snake..

...what? Snake's full adjustment shouldn't factor in MGS3 when it wasn't released during that time. You also need to think of how much you're expecting that boost to help him and I know you're probably expecting something completely ridiculous judging from what I have heard before. Bowser, with that increase, is still going to give Snake hell, whether he wins or loses.

Right now, there are things favoring Bowser over Snake than what you're giving credit for.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

I still surprised about the low support Ryu is getting. Sure I like Bowser more, but without the spring contest, Ryu beats Bowser is every year.

For my bracket's sake, I hope Ryu pulls out a victory against Bowser and Tidus. This contest just continues to lower the validity of the Villains Contest.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 6/7 points
Current Match Prediction: Auron vs. Big Boss

Looks like HM was right about the skew between day/night vote after all; I didn't expect Yuna to bring it under 60%, and then lose a few points. Ganon might approach 63%, and finish up with 62.5% or so.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

but without the spring contest, Ryu beats Bowser is every year.

There was no way of telling whether or not Bowser increased from 2003 to 2004 due to the SFF match against Mario. The amount Ryu is projected to win by is also very small as well.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/25/2005 11:18:05 AM | Message Detail | #364
Instead of all this rambling, I can't believe this hasn't been done yet.

ziiiiiiip

*urinates on the x-stats*

Thank you.

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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 6/6
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Ganondorf Tomorrow: Auron

Believe me, I'd like nothing more than for Ryu to kick Bowser's ass so once and for all we can stop hearing about Bowser and Ganondorf's "Magical" Villains Tournament upgrades.

That, and Ryu is just cooler than Bowser.
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5/18/05
Never forget. Never forgive.

There was no way of telling whether or not Bowser increased from 2003 to 2004 due to the SFF match against Mario. The amount Ryu is projected to win by is also very small as well.

Yah, but when 80% of the BOP thinks Bowser is going to win and he's not even the favorite, you know people are overestimating him.
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

Im expecting a 2% boost from MGS3(Similiar to the one Yuna got from FFX-2)..Enough to sling Snake back over Zero, Ganon, Magus, and near equal/equal to Sonic..

If you consider 52-48 close in a Snake-Bowser match ^_^

Thanks for the agreement/similiar picks charmander and Dranze ^__^
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 6/6
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Ganondorf Tomorrow: Auron

i really REALLY think that the villain contest stats were swayed a lot because it was a VILLAIN contest. i think a good amount of people actually voted based on BEST villain. this is why bowser did so well, why ganondorf increased, why sephiroth dropped, why CATS had a good showing, etc etc. it just makes sense. that said, i'm a little bit nervous about yoshi vs. ocelot now that we're in an actual character battle.

on a side note, i've never had the pleasure of owning a snes, but just last night i played through and beat super mario world for the first time in my life. if bowser looked like that all the time, people would like him a lot more. also i'm starting to see why people like yoshi more than i think they should. however, i still can't understand why people don't like luigi in these contests. when mario64 came out, all you heard was "where's luigi?" will nintendo please get him involved in a big name mario game. PLEASE.

also, i've been playing a little mario sunshine recently as well, and i don't understand why people don't like it. thinking back, it was a great game. clearly a little more challenging, with the same style as mario64 but upgraded. the only thing that made the game seem like a letdown was what happens when you get all 120 shines. if only they would've spent more time on that, people would be praising that game sooo much.

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All my base are belong to Yoblazer, winner of the Guru Contest.

Really, Ganon had no increase from the villain contest worth talking about if you only drop Sephiroth. I don't see why people are making a big deal out of it about Ganon. And Bowser's increase is 4%, which wouldn't be that hard to believe given what he's had to help him since then. He might not get it all, but I would like to believe people think he at least got something.


Oh, and Bowser is cooler than everyone. Hilarious and brilliant at the same time.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Ganondorf 62.28% 31,141
Yuna 37.72% 18,859
Total Votes: 50,000
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

Yah, but when 80% of the BOP thinks Bowser is going to win and he's not even the favorite, you know people are overestimating him.

I seem to remember Tidus having a big BOP lead on Shadow, although many knew it would be close.
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This signature avaliable for rent.

From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/25/2005 10:26:53 AM | Message Detail
Really, Ganon had no increase from the villain contest worth talking about if you only drop Sephiroth.

Doesn't that drop Bowser as well?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 6/7 points
Current Match Prediction: Auron vs. Big Boss

50000 votes, and we're just 10 hours in.

Who said we weren't going to do it? *looks at Tequilla Gundam*
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SC2K5 status - Points: 005/006 - Matches: 05/06 - Rank: 04218/33793 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Auron

From: swirldude | Posted: 7/25/2005 1:27:38 PM | #379
I seem to remember Tidus having a big BOP lead on Shadow, although many knew it would be close.

You remember wrong. 60-59 Shadow.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 005/006 - Matches: 05/06 - Rank: 04218/33793 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Auron

I seem to remember Tidus having a big BOP lead on Shadow, although many knew it would be close.

60-59 for SHADOW
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

err *Draco..

80% of the BOP has Bowser to win over Ryu
Half of those have Bowser beating Tidus and beating Snake

20% of the BOP has Ryu to win over Bowser
Most of those have Ryu beating Tidus and losing to Snake

Who is being overrated, again?
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 6/6
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Ganondorf Tomorrow: Auron

It does drop Bowser but like I mentioned early, it still puts him almost dead even with adjusted Solid Snake.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15

Glad to see Ganon hasn't fallen out of the 60% range yet. Hopefully this mean's he can deal fairly good with Auron as well. What percentage you guys think that'll come to anyhow? I'm gonna say 54/46 with Ganon takin it.
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WWEGSB Hardcore Legend Masa
*Is now in need of a sig

Doesn't that drop Bowser as well?

It makes Bowser's increase much more believable. Instead of being above Mario, he's slightly under Ganon, who is also close to his 2003 value.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Regardless, the "favorite to win by BOP standards is a huge favorite but anyone with a brain could tell you will it be close" thing must've happened.
---
This signature avaliable for rent.

Who said we weren't going to do it? *looks at Tequilla Gundam*

You're putting stock in anything that guy says? Watching him try to make a point is like listening to one of Bush's speeches. He seriously is the worst stats topic newcomer ever.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/25/2005 11:26:53 AM | Message Detail | #377
Really, Ganon had no increase from the villain contest worth talking about if you only drop Sephiroth. I don't see why people are making a big deal out of it about Ganon. And Bowser's increase is 4%, which wouldn't be that hard to believe given what he's had to help him since then. He might not get it all, but I would like to believe people think he at least got something.
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Agree : Ganon got no increase from the Villian Contest/Relatively equal to 2k3/2k4 levels

Disagree: "Bowser's increase is 4%".. I believe he only increased 1-2% from 2k3->Spring 2k5..I will give him something but not 4% _-.

Thank God, I didn't take that sig bet ^__^ about this match getting 100k..I didn't think it could do it +__-
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 6/6
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Ganondorf Tomorrow: Auron

Thank God, I didn't take that sig bet ^__^ about this match getting 100k..I didn't think it could do it +__-

How could you not?
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This signature avaliable for rent.

If Ganon didnt increase or barely increased and it will all Sephiroth's drop, Bowser still increases by 2.5 percent. Thats the minimum of Bowser's increase.

With a 2.5 percent increase for Bowser, unadjusted Snake is 3 percent behind him. If this contest has proven anything to me its been that the 20XX Factor is complete bunk. So Solid Snake has to get a 3 percent increase for a game. For him to get the increase from that game, people would have to have played that game. If people played the game, people know that Naked Snake isnt Solid Snake.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

On a sidenote... if for some reason in a cruel twist of fate I become tied for first at the end of this all, the final match will have to be like a 50.01 - 49.99 for my tiebreaker to have any shot in hell... god I undershot that son of a *****.

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Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]

From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/25/2005 11:41:22 AM | Message Detail | #393
On a sidenote... if for some reason in a cruel twist of fate I become tied for first at the end of this all, the final match will have to be like a 50.01 - 49.99 for my tiebreaker to have any shot in hell... god I undershot that son of a *****.

What was you tie breaker?

Mine is in the mid 60s _-.
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 6/6
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Ganondorf Tomorrow: Auron

BEST COMEBACK EVER
---
This signature avaliable for rent.

Wow great show of maturity, Tequilla Gundam. You arent doing a good job at making anyone take you seriously.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

"Cloud increased by 7% with Kingdom Hearts, obviously"
"There's no way in hell Yuna increased by 3% with FFX-2"

You guys are entertaining ;)
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place

I'm defeated and stunned by your, uh.... superior wit and second grade arguing skills. Congratulations.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

From: NewLib | Posted: 7/25/2005 11:43:16 AM | Message Detail | #397
Wow great show of maturity, Tequilla Gundam. You arent doing a good job at making anyone take you seriously.

I doubt anyone here takes him seriously in the first place. He's been acting like this since before the contest even started.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus