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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 167
From: jonthomson | Posted: 7/25/2005 5:37:04 AM | Message Detail
Ganondorf 59.83% 11966
Yuna 40.17% 8034
TOTAL VOTES 20000
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/25/2005 5:37:24 AM | Message Detail
Ganondorf 59.83% 11966
Yuna 40.17% 8034
TOTAL VOTES 20000

And the morning vote hasn't even picked up yet. I'm lovin' this.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 7/25/2005 5:37:47 AM | Message Detail
This is music to my ears in terms of my predictions against Ganondorf and Magus in Round 2, but as for Alucard > Sora, I still don't rely so much on Alucard's popularity but rather on Sora's lack thereof.
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Summer 2005 Contest -- Current Score: 5/6
Today's Prediction -- Ganondorf vs. Yuna
From: CaptainFlufflez | Posted: 7/25/2005 5:42:04 AM | Message Detail
anyone who thought Ganon > Auron or Magus > Squall were lock picks was kidding themselves. A lot of my feelings about Ganon beating Auron were from both, Auron's performance against Ness, and FF's seemingly drop in the spring contest. I never thought Ganon got a boost from the spring contest. Now as it turns out, FF doesn't appear to have dropped and Ness appears to be much stronger than I previously thought. I am very concerned about how I changed Auron > Ganon to Ganon > Auron. As for the whole Magus/Squall scenario....who knows. I've never played CT, but I don't think Squall is a good character either...If I were voting by the games they're in though, I would be blindly throwing my vote at FF8 and I assume a lot of people unfamiliar with SNES would be doing the same thing.

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All my base are belong to Yoblazer, winner of the Guru Contest.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/25/2005 5:50:56 AM | Message Detail
I mean, Ganondorf's still dropping...

No, he's not. He was staying around the .85% mark for a while, but has been making a small climb at the moment. But he stopped dropping a while ago.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/25/2005 5:51:46 AM | Message Detail
I never thought Ganon got a boost from the spring contest.

Even using the Spring Contest, Ganon's increase was always quite small.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/25/2005 6:00:28 AM | Message Detail
Ganondorf 60% 12981
Yuna 40% 8655
TOTAL VOTES 21636

Ganon back to 60%!

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/25/2005 6:05:57 AM | Message Detail
Ganondorf should do quite well for himself with the day vote, but 62-63% is probably the best he could hope for. Could Auron be poised for the upset? Stay tuned...

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: voltch | Posted: 7/25/2005 6:20:30 AM | Message Detail
well ganon looks like he's not going to double yuna afterall. i mean at his current pace he'll fall right about 63-65%
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 6:21:29 AM | Message Detail
62-63% is good enough for me. I'm willing to accept that as a FFX-2 increase.

Staying at 60 is a different story though.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/25/2005 6:40:54 AM | Message Detail
Roll back up Ganon!

Roll back up!
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ganondorf vs. Yuna - Bracket: Ganon - Vote: Ganon (5/6)
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/25/2005 6:45:17 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, that's what he's doing...

http://ic1.deviantart.com/fs7/i/2005/180/8/f/Replacement_Sandbag_by_Hail_NekoYasha.png
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SC2K5 status - Points: 005/006 - Matches: 05/06 - Rank: 04218/33793 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Auron
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/25/2005 6:49:39 AM | Message Detail
6-1

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A E I OWN U
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:08:27 AM | Message Detail
Slow, that is the funniest thing I have seen. XD

<3 <3 <3

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: voltch | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:10:19 AM | Message Detail
so how well is the vote totals going? still on pace for the magical six figure mark?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:13:05 AM | Message Detail
But even with 61%, I would be willing to accept FFX-2 giving Yuna enough of a boost to bring him down to that level, along with higher vote totals favoring new Square.

Right now, with about 61%, Yuna is right around Yoshi's level at 25% on 2004 Link. That roughly equates to a 3% boost from FFX-2. You could also note that the game has enjoyed the full 1.3 million in sales considering Yuna hasn't appeared for about two years.

But even if you don't accept that fully, I guess you could say that Ganon could have decreased slightly to bring that increase from FFX-2 down some. But it's nothing drastic in either case, unless you believe, for some very, very odd reason, that FFX-2 hasn't done much.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Prometheus321 | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:14:40 AM | Message Detail
*tag*
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:15:04 AM | Message Detail
At the 7:10 mark, here are the vote totals in comparison to Ness/CJ.

Ness/CJ - 25,222
Ganon/Yuna - 27,598

We're still on pace to hit that oh so awesome 100,000.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: voltch | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:17:05 AM | Message Detail
since we are doing so well in current vote toals. is it possible for link vs cloud to crack 130k? they did after all break 145k once
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:17:25 AM | Message Detail
Ganondorf 61% 17213
Yuna 39% 11007
TOTAL VOTES 28220

Huzzah! The Great King of Evil hits 61%! Go, Ganon.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: red sox 777 | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:25:09 AM | Message Detail
If we are really back up to SC2K3 vote totals, which we seem to be more or less, then I don't see why Link/Cloud wouldn't break 130K, or 145K.
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Summer Contest 2005 --- Score: 5/6 --- Rank: T-4218
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:28:21 AM | Message Detail
Ganon's not having any trouble winning this day vote. I'm hoping he can at least get around 62.5%.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:36:36 AM | Message Detail
Let's go Ganondorf!
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:41:58 AM | Message Detail
Ganon's slammin' it to Yuna right now; I still suspect Yuna'll finish with about 37%, but it's hard to tell. It looks like Ganon didn't get all that big of a boost now though, as I expected, if any.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: NegFactor | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:42:46 AM | Message Detail
Jumping away from this match for a little bit...

Does anyone feel there is a particular *division* that has a good chance of ruining a good share of brackets?

I cannot help but feel a little worried everytime I look at the entire setup of the Dream Division.

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"I don't know who you are but I thank you for arousing me." -- Terranigma
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:43:40 AM | Message Detail
Also, for reference, can somebody tell me where Yuna would rank at right now if Ganon 2k4 was adjusted by Alucard 2k3 and Ganon 2k4 = Ganon 2k5?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:44:55 AM | Message Detail
Dream Division, easily. If the Gear Division kills Solid off early, too, there will be a massive break-down in the brackets.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: pezmaster15 | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:45:57 AM | Message Detail
At first, the Dream division scared the crap out of me, but after I thought about it, I really thought that Tidus/Bowser was a lock for the final division battle. The Devil division really scares me, as many of the matches can go either way.
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MoFaT Inc.
WTF Moment of 2005: blue_spiritUK foresees "bad day" 2 days before London Bombing
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:48:23 AM | Message Detail
If I'm doing this right, to Harrich, that would make Yuna at around 24.8 on 2K3 Link which is only a little more than a 1% increase. A little low.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: CaptainFlufflez | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:51:49 AM | Message Detail
The dream division will end all life as you know it. Starting with the second round...
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All my base are belong to Yoblazer, winner of the Guru Contest.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:56:07 AM | Message Detail
The only real dangers in the Dream division are Bowser/Ryu and Tidus/winner.

I personally thing the difficulty has been spread out rather evenly, myself, instead of having stuff like West 2002, South 2003, or 128 spring 2004. Well, there's the last quarter that's kinda funny, because it goes like this:

Luigi has to try to beat Tifa without losing to KOS-MOS.
Tifa has to try to beat Sonic without losing to Luigi.
Sonic has to try to beat Megaman without losing to Tifa.
Megaman has to try to beat Crono without losing to Sonic.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 005/006 - Matches: 05/06 - Rank: 04218/33793 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Auron
From: NegFactor | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:57:18 AM | Message Detail
See, I do not number crunch stats like a number of people around here do so I do not recall comparisons between previous matches for the most part. I more or less weigh the match out and try and figure upon who the majority would naturally pick (which may not be the best idea, but I am sure most people try and do anyway).

I do not see Gear Division being a big deal as I really do not think Vivi or Sora will pose too much of a threat to Snake. Mind you, I do think he is probably one of the characters who will struggle the most to make it to the end of his division, but I think he is at least fairly safe.

Dream Division has me worried about Kirby/Tidus (Tidus) and Bowser/Ryu (Bowser) and the resulting match from there. The Bowser/Ryu one especially bothers me. I am sure someone has an expected percentage on how that should pan out, but everytime I play it out in my mind, it seems just way too close and I could pick either way.

Flood Division seems pretty cut and dry.

Devil Division does worry me because it *seems* like I should feel safe with Vincent over Kerrigan and yet I do not. Moreover, I do not know how the numbers stack up, but I went against the FF grain and placed Dante over Squall just because I feel like he should edge it out. If anyone wants to give me a projection on how that match should be, I would love to know how much I should be sweating.

Only the Tifa/Luigi match bugs me in Chaos, and I think Luigi should walk with that one anyway.

20XX only bugs me for the Yoshi/Ocelot match. And I picked Gordon Freeman to finally win a match and I am proud of that decision. :P
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"I don't know who you are but I thank you for arousing me." -- Terranigma
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/25/2005 7:57:32 AM | Message Detail
If I'm doing this right, to Harrich, that would make Yuna at around 24.8 on 2K3 Link which is only a little more than a 1% increase. A little low.

Sounds about right. Hmmm...perhaps Alucard DID deserve to be adjusted up just a bit with Ganon, though I don't think he should have gotten the full benefit of considering it was Ganon 2k3. Regardless, the match ain't over yet, so I'll withhold any solid judgment right now.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:02:23 AM | Message Detail
I would think Yuna would get more than 1% from FFX-2. I mean, Yuna was a freakin' tool in FFX and, well, although she's still a tool in FFX-2, she's the main character and she grows boobies.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: kinsho3 | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:04:40 AM | Message Detail
I cannot help but feel a little worried everytime I look at the entire setup of the Dream Division.

Dream Division is one of the hardest to call, especially considering Bowser or Ryu could potentially rob many brackets of 14 points.

However, the Devil Division shouldn't be overlooked too, considering Squall seems to getting a bit too overhyped.

The Chaos division, though, has the hardest division final. Sonic vs. Tifa is much harder than we all think it to be.

And what is this? Did FFX - 2 really give Yuna that much a boost? Not that Yuna wasn't a bad character, but she wasn't memorable at all, really, besides being the main character. At least Tidus was memorable.

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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:06:27 AM | Message Detail
I really do not think Vivi or Sora will pose too much of a threat to Snake.

Especially seeing he might not face either.

I went against the FF grain and placed Dante over Squall just because I feel like he should edge it out. If anyone wants to give me a projection on how that match should be, I would love to know how much I should be sweating.

Past numbers put Magus with a decent cushion ahead of Squall, who should himself dispatch Dante without getting into nailbiter-land. Vincent is expected to beat Dante, also.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 005/006 - Matches: 05/06 - Rank: 04218/33793 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Auron
From: kinsho3 | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:07:17 AM | Message Detail
At least Yuna had some significance in FFX. I wouldn't mind voting for that Yuna, not the one we see on the main page.
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:09:49 AM | Message Detail
Yuna having the role of a main character and being in two popular, high selling games is certainly going to make her stronger than what was shown in 2003. I don't know why some people would honestly disregard that. She has a luxury that not many other FF characters having, that is being in two titles that sold exceptionally well.

I don't see 3% of an increase being that hard to believe, which is about what she would get if you have a static Ganon from 2003. Yuna would end up right around Yoshi right now with a value of 25% on 2004 Link. Nothing really hard to believe about that.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:09:54 AM | Message Detail
The Chaos division, though, has the hardest division final. Sonic vs. Tifa is much harder than we all think it to be.

I agree with that. I think there's a chance we might've shot ourselves in the foot with this one... Aeris got 47% on Sonic, and if Tifa's anything more dangerous, our brackets may be in for the fights of their lives.

Of course, there's always the possibility Tifa bombs and barely escapes, or even loses to Luigi, but that's difficult to see happening.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 005/006 - Matches: 05/06 - Rank: 04218/33793 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Auron
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:11:10 AM | Message Detail
If RPGuy was right about Luigi being higher in the stats and Tifa being a little lower than what is expected of her, that would be hilarious to see. I, for one, would love to see Luigi upset Tifa. But I don't see that as very likely, nor do I see Tifa over Sonic as very likely.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:12:46 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I'm thinking Aeris draws a lot of power from the spoiler.

Which makes me think, I wonder how Tassadar would do compared to Kerrigan. Probably not much, since it's freakin' Kerrigan, but still...
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SC2K5 status - Points: 005/006 - Matches: 05/06 - Rank: 04218/33793 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Auron
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:13:21 AM | Message Detail
And if Ganondorf ends close to 62%, it will actually be less than 3%. Not bad.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:13:48 AM | Message Detail
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 11:13:21 AM | #292
And if Ganondorf ends close to 62%, it will actually be less than 3%. Not bad.

Just like against Alucard...
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SC2K5 status - Points: 005/006 - Matches: 05/06 - Rank: 04218/33793 - Today: Ganondorf - Tomorrow: Auron
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:17:11 AM | Message Detail
Damn, Ganon underpeformed by 3%..Based on Sephiroth and Ganon's "new" ranking, Bowser adjusted gets only 46-47% on Ryu :( He was already down a percent to begin with too :(

PICK UP THE PACE GANON!
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 6/6
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Ganondorf Tomorrow: Auron
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:18:12 AM | Message Detail
Hey. Alucard didn't star in a new game in that time!

...did he?
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:20:28 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:20:33 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, I'm thinking Aeris draws a lot of power from the spoiler.

I'm banking that it is just the power of the Final Fantasy 7 beast... Until it shows me otherwise, I have no reason to doubt the Final Fantasy 7 train. Of course, that is based on me thinking that Aeris is nothing special. I may be proved wrong though...
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:21:05 AM | Message Detail
Aria of Sorrow was before the 03 contest
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:21:57 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/25/2005 8:22:50 AM | Message Detail
And Riku makes me feel better about Tifa and Vincent seeing that not being in the contest for two years didn't hurt Riku at all... So I think they should be at least comparable to Aeris.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
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