I really doubt it. None of the matches this contest have kept their original paces.

True. I don't expect 120k either but this match should fly past 100k and maybe even 110k.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

this is a saturday night. people are up later on saturdays. vote totals will be higher.

...What?
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

On pace for 120+k. This can't possible last, can it?

If it did, can you imagine what the final matches of this one are gonna be like?!!!
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Ganondorf's matches always seem to rake in the votes.

Hmm...I think this will end at a 65-35 affair.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Hm...I guess you're right.

For some reason I thought it just because Ganondorf was involved in some close matches...but Ganondorf/Alucard had a nice vote total compared to other Round 1 matches.

Oh, and I hate it when a match is stuck around a certain percentage early on that is equal to my Oracle pick, because I know the result's gonna change later. :[

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Make better Oracle picks then :P
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Hey, at least have good sense with predicting the board/night voters. :P

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Ganondorf's matches always seem to rake in the votes.

Even so, Link vs Cloud 2k4 is the 5th most popular contest poll bt total votes. Keeping up with it even for a few minutes is a very tough task.

0:50
Ganondorf vs Yuna - 5021
Link vs Cloud 2k4 - 4826
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

you don't think more people stay up late on Saturday nights than on, say, Wednesdays? makes logical sense to me, though I have no idea what the numbers say. I wouldn't put much into this vote total anyway, especially since it's the first Nintendo v. Square poll.
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---

you don't think more people stay up late on Saturday nights than on, say, Wednesdays? makes logical sense to me, though I have no idea what the numbers say. I wouldn't put much into this vote total anyway, especially since it's the first Nintendo v. Square poll.

It's Sunday night though.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Saturday was so yesterday.

---
A E I OWN U

you don't think more people stay up late on Saturday nights than on, say, Wednesdays?


...

...ITS SUNDAY!!!! And not even anymore. Its Monday already.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

..oh hey, it is. I'm on drugs.

I suppose I should set my alarm for work tomorrow.

---
---
---

I should set my alarm for work too.

And by work I mean watching Deep Space 9.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Ganondorf 62.79% 3642
Yuna 37.21% 2158
TOTAL VOTES 5800

Ha. Sooner or later Ganny you're going to have to stop staring and DO SOMETHING.

Er... could of worded that one better.

1:00
Ganondorf vs Yuna - 5696
Link vs Cloud 2k4 - 5507

Starting to slow down now.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

In other news, Top 50 newcomers LordZilong and ksakura absolutely rock.

If you remember, ksakura was on the leaderboard for a while in the Spring Contest with CATS too. =)
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Current Score: 4/5 | Today: Frog over Riku

1:15
Ganondorf vs Yuna - 6664
Link vs Cloud 2k4 - 6522

The gap is now shrinking. Link vs Cloud 2k4 should take the lead within an hour.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Supercomputer, I heart you.
---
Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar

so how much would yuna need on ganondorf for auron to look like the clear favourite
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

That depends on how strong you consider Yuna. We haven't seen her in action before, so she could conceivably be close to Tidus, or a long, long ways away.
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...We have seen her in action.
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Bracket: Frog - Vote: Frog Points: 5/6

we have seen yuna in action before and she lost against knuckles in sc2k3
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Which als of course brings up the point that we aren't even sure how strong Tidus really is for sure, so she'd probably be better compared to Auron.
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...So we have. So we have. I knew that >_<.
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She could be subject to a lot of change however since she hasn't been in it since 2k3. I wasn't aware she was in it before but got snubbed in 2k4. Didn't x-2 come out after 2k3? That could either give her a boost, or keep her leveled off.
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Puch, Gannondorf is still falling. Not nearly as badly as frog of course, but he's still starting to look weaker then he should. Good thing he'll be takuing back some percentage in the daytime.
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From: King Morgoth | Posted: 7/24/2005 7:52:56 PM | Message Detail
IMNSHO, saying that Kerrigan is being capable of beating Dante is crazy.

Now now now, I really want to hear why you would think that, since it's probably just as crazy as say Master Hand > Kuja or Starcraft > Wind Waker....
no wait that was clinically insane, nevermind =P
off-topic, do you have AIM creative?

For a little while I was in fact unsure about Kuja vs. Master Hand, before settling on Kuja. And I never expected Wind Waker to lose to Starcraft, but I presumed it would be much closer than Kerrigan vs. Dante will be.

I don't like IM programs.

Anyway, Kerrigan is pretty overrated. Many will insist she is underrated, but I don't buy that at all. And I was a staunch supporter of Diablo. Kerrigan won't be close to Diablo. And if she can't get close to Diablo, she won't get close to Dante.



From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/24/2005 8:39:49 PM | Message Detail
Hmm, suggestion for the automatic updater.

Would it be alright if a Total Vote column was added to it?

All right, I'll try and remember to do that.



From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:59:40 PM | Message Detail
I must admit, I always wondered how the hell could Riku not only get in, but with a 4-seed to boot. Hint hint.

7 or 8 seed. You can't count this as a real 4 seed. There are 24 characters seeded ahead of these 4 seeds, and in a 4 division bracket that would make them a 7 seed at the highest.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

I think some people in the last topic were talking about SFF being applied to everything. That's not true actually. There are plenty of non-SFF related factors that can influence things (time of day, for one; though of course that tends to even out, so we don't worry about it except in close matches). Day of the week is another factor though one that we couldn't really hope to account for (you can trust that there would be systematic voting shifts in terms of demographics on different days of the week; but this would be too complex for us to track). There would be plenty of factors outside of the first and most important one that you'd think of, which is a shift in actual strength.

When it comes to things differing significantly from expectations, outside of SFF, the first thing I look at next is pics. Which a lot of people dismiss, but I don't. e.g. take a look at the two Mega Man vs. Snake pics:

http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=4&pos=59
Result: Mega Man with 53.5%

http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/displayimage.php?album=2&pos=59
Result: Mega Man with 57.19%

Now, that could very well be caused by Snake getting weaker; and Snake's weakness was foreshadowed by his performance against Frog. However it does seem clear that Snake had a far more "iconic Snake" look in the first picture. And don't forget that shifts of a certain scale are easier to get in close matches than in blowouts. 4 points is still more than you'd think (or like to think) a picture could cause, but this is just an example: a rematch where a shift in performance didn't entirely make sense by itself. But I think that outside of SFF, pic factor is the most "obvious" factor whose influence could be tangible.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

1:45
Ganondorf vs Yuna - 8335
Link vs Cloud 2k4 - 8290

Still in the lead but falling fast. Ganondorf vs Yuna may hold on until 2:15 if it gets lucky.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

I don't think Ganon's day-vote advantage will be as large as many have stated. Yuna doesn't seem like she'd be bad with the day vote at all; especially with that picture.

I also think that Auron vs. Ganon will be "day vote neutral", so to speak. Which means that if it's a really close match it could be wire-to-wire.

And I'd like to note that I'm very surprised that people seem to be expecting low to mid-60's for Auron against Big Boss. I think Big Boss will be a few points under Ocelot; I really don't see him being all that strong. I could be very wrong about that though.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Considering the contest so far, I would be surprized if BB broke 48%
~~~
"[Zelos] clearly should be writing in his book of dark poetry and slitting his wrists with a cruxis crystal - meisnewbie

I don't think Ganon's day-vote advantage will be as large as many have stated.

It will definitely be enough to bump him up a few percentage points. Yuna's time was definitely during the night and I would expect Ganon to have his own time, outside of the board vote, during the day.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

"Hmm...I think this will end at a 65-35 affair."

I think you're kidding yourself.
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"

2:00
Ganondorf vs Yuna - 9070
Link vs Cloud 2k4 - 9096

And it falls behind. Lasting for two hours is still a very good run.

2:00
Ganondorf vs Yuna - 9070
Mario vs Joanna - 8011
Riku vs Frog - 8275

Unless this match completly died, it will blow past 100k.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Yuna's time was definitely during the night

What makes you say this?

If it's the Knuckles match, well...it's Knuckles.

And Yuna certainly has a picture that should be...shall we say...more appealing to any so-called "casual" voters.

Final Fantasy X and its characters have hardly been poor during the day though. If we were talking about Knuckles or perhaps Kingdom Hearts or even maybe Microsoft, I could understand a FFX opponent benefiting during the day; but while Ganon is good during the day, Yuna should be "good" as well, relatively speaking.

We shouldn't see that much change. I don't think Ganon can get above 63.5%, and I would expect 62% or under.
---
www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

And for those interested:
http://members.shaw.ca/teamrocketelite/GanondorfvsTidus.txt

It's the poll updates from the Ganondorf vs Tidus 2k3 match. Remember that the poll started 2 hours earlier in 2k3 so the times listed are for the Central Time Zone.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

What makes you say this?

Her match with Knuckles alongside the fact that she has been gaining in percent quite a bit now. I honestly don't see any reason at all to believe that she'll either win the day vote or just keep it like it is. We will see Ganon increasing by a few percentage points once the morning vote hits. I'm not worried about this at all. Her picture is not something that is much better than what she had in 2003.

but while Ganon is good during the day, Yuna should be "good" as well, relatively speaking.

I didn't say she would be horrible, but she certainly shouldn't stop Ganon from increasing some during the day. I'm not calling for anything to push him back to 65%, but he should be able to get 63 - 64%

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

I still don't think Auron well even make a close match (close meaning within 2,000 votes or so of each other) against gannon, but I don't think gannon well be getting 65%. It certainly isn't impossible, but this isn't old school square he's facing.
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Err.... I mean 65% this match. Obviously he won't be getting 65% on Auron ;).
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Her match with Knuckles alongside the fact that she has been gaining in percent quite a bit now.

You think the fact that she's been gaining during the post-board night vote is a reason for her to decline during the day...? O_o
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

You think the fact that she's been gaining during the post-board night vote is a reason for her to decline during the day...? O_o

She's been very good during tonight and I would expect this to be her best time at actually gaining. Her ability to gain votes during the day should be lesser than her ability to gain votes during the night, which she has done. Square's best time, a vast majority of the time, appears to be during the night while Nintendo's is usually focused during the day time hours. Ganon isn't going to run away with it, but he'll hardly be held to what he is now.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

is this match going to be an indication of rikku's strength?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

She's gaining like mad atm.

FFS.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

She's really doing a number on Gannon right now. Not to his lead mind you, it's just making him look bad in general. Not that I think Auron has any chance unless this gets much closer during the day somehow, which isn't likely.
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If Ganon remained the same from 2003, this puts Yuna around 25% on 2004 Link. That's right under Yoshi for those wondering.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

And that would be a 3.34% boost for Yuna since 2003.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Which would make sense given FFx-2. It didn't bomb in sales or anything did it?
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Gannon just fell below 61%.
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