Honestly, would you take CATS over some of the villains he was projected to beat (i.e. Robotnik, Sin, etc.)?

Gotta pick and choose, though I'd REALLY wanna know what pic CATS got in such matches. Either way though, if CATS can get 45% on Ansem, a villain from KH, then it's not unfeasable that he can actually win a match.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Honestly, would you take CATS over some of the villains he was projected to beat (i.e. Robotnik, Sin, etc.)?

Oh come on, use some better examples than that. Robotnik and Sin are so close to CATS that using the stats for those matches would be stupid.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Well, CATS should be getting a head shot against Master Chief this year, so we'll see if it means much. Me thinks it does.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

I don't think Yuna got anything from FFX-2.

I hardly see a justification for this. She got a new game where she was the main character, that isn't going to just do nothing. Any release of a game should help you out if it sold well enough. Samus increases, but she has remained relatively the same in character.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Using Samus, then, why didn't she increase in 2k3?
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Oh come on, use some better examples than that. Robotnik and Sin are so close to CATS that using the stats for those matches would be stupid.

Ok then Mother Brain, Wesker, Ultros, Sigma, Andross.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 5/6 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Yuna

Any release of a game should help you out if it sold well enough.

If that's true, then Snake will get a boost from MGS3.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 5/6 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Yuna

Ganon = Tidus = Magus. So, we are to assume that because Tidus performs poorly that Ganon and Magus are going to be brought down with him, ignoring the fact the match took place in an entirely different year and that Tidus could have, you know, decreased on his own.

But they did still have the same value then, and nothing in 2k4 really led me to believe otherwise. Until they can prove themselves to be different in strength, and with none of them having any new games, I don't see an reason for any huge shift.

And by adjusting Alucard up it calls Ganon/Alucard perfectly and explains why Kirby did so much better on Squall. I believe it does with Bomberman too.

Why are we adjusting Alucard? PSX SFF? Give me a break.

But there's no increase for Ganon? Why? That doesn't make sense.

Because amidst all the TP hype, I've heard/seen nothing of Ganondorf.

---
I need to put something here.

Better yet, Link from 2k2 to 2k3.
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Using Samus, then, why didn't she increase in 2k3?

But she did get an increase in 2004 that was rather significant after having a GBA released game that sold well. Any sort of Samus increase wouldn't make sense considering she has stayed the same and thus her likability as a character isn't any different than before.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

You know what's cute about Magus/Ganondorf/Tidus? If you plug in Tidus's 2k4 value for Magus 2k3, and extrapolate Fisher like that, Fisher's 2k4 X-Stat value matches up almost perfectly with 2k3.

I just thought that was cool. Go Squall!
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

But they did still have the same value then,

Yes, then. "Then" is not now. You don't use a 2003 value and assume that's their strength for the rest of forever until they "prove otherwise." That's just stupid. There's nothing hard about believing Tidus fell without carrying Magus and Ganon with him. I really don't see how someone could believe that.


Why are we adjusting Alucard? PSX SFF? Give me a break.

You think that is crazy with what people like to call around here? You seem to think people need a reason to adjust. That's hardly the case. Mega Man was adjusted to make everything look better. That's the only reason.

Because amidst all the TP hype, I've heard/seen nothing of Ganondorf.

So you're one of those people who thinks Twilight Princess hype was the sole reason for the increase? Yeah, right.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

I am quite bitter to not see Frog running away with this night vote. I guess the best I can hope for is for him to keep Samus under 60% a month from now.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)

She got a new game where she was the main character, that isn't going to just do nothing.

That applies to Samus just as well as it applies to Yuna.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/25/2005 1:19:29 AM | Message Detail | #405
Using Samus, then, why didn't she increase in 2k3?

I think Samus just overperformed to hell and back in 2002. IF she loses to Sonic by ~1600 votes like the first 19 hours of that match suggested that she should have, she increases from 2k2 to 2k3. Dunno what happened in Samus/Seph, though.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

That applies to Samus just as well as it applies to Yuna.

Don't you and Slow like to bring up WDF for Samus in 2003, hmm? I'm sure you can figure it out from there.

But if since we're all about Samus. FFX-2 was released during the 2004 contest, so it's had a year to sit. That means Yuna should be getting her increase this year! Yipee!

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

I think Samus just overperformed to hell and back in 2002. IF she loses to Sonic by ~1600 votes like the first 19 hours of that match suggested that she should have, she increases from 2k2 to 2k3. Dunno what happened in Samus/Seph, though.

Which is great, because it doesn't matter what she did to Sonic. It only matters how much she lost to Sephiroth by.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

You think that is crazy with what people like to call around here? You seem to think people need a reason to adjust. That's hardly the case. Mega Man was adjusted to make everything look better. That's the only reason.

Well if I adjust for rSFF in Aiai vs Link, Aiai suddenly becomes the most powerful opponent. Think about it! They're both on the GameCube, and both are mute, and both are from extremely popular series's! And we all know that all Nintendo vs Sega matches have SFF favoring Nintendo because look at SMW vs Sonic 2!

Ok, I went overboard. But seriously, you're just adjusting because this 'looks nice' too. And it lines up nicely with a villain contest value or two that we still can't prove the credibility of.

So you're one of those people who thinks Twilight Princess hype was the sole reason for the increase? Yeah, right.

Well, do you have any others?
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I need to put something here.

Don't you and Slow like to bring up WDF for Samus in 2003, hmm? I'm sure you can figure it out from there.

I do indeed, and that makes her constant between 2k2 and 2k3. Still no increase, if you take Link/Samus at face value.

But if since we're all about Samus. FFX-2 was released during the 2004 contest, so it's had a year to sit. That means Yuna should be getting her increase this year! Yipee!

And you should also know that I think Samus was SFF'd in 2k3. She got a good deal of her increase that year, not in 2k4, if you ask me.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Well off of my "Ganon is overrated" tangent, I have to agree that FFX-2 isn't likely to help much. Most will have played FFX, (this is why the Metroid Zero Mission argument fails... different system, different type of game) and FFX-2 wasn't exactly well received anyway.

Seriously, how many new fans would FFX-2 draw in, based on those commercials... based on what was said before hand? Slim to none, I'd gamble.

If Yuna does better than expected, I'm blaming it on Ganon.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

And you should also know that I think Samus was SFF'd in 2k3. She got a good deal of her increase that year, not in 2k4, if you ask me.

I don't really have that much of a problem believing Link SFFed Samus, because wouldn't make sense that the two wouldn't have it while some other matchups are talked about having SFF have no reason for it. But if she increased from 2002 to 2003, that increase doesn't seem nearly as large as from 2003 to 2004. It does probably make some sense though.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

All right, we've dealt with Samus. Now, on to why Wind Waker didn't give Link an increase.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Too many fans hated the cel-shaded look.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Ok, I went overboard. But seriously, you're just adjusting because this 'looks nice' too. And it lines up nicely with a villain contest value or two that we still can't prove the credibility of.

'Looks nice'? It helps explain more than just Alucard/Ganon. It has a nice habit of explaining why Squall performed as bad as he did against Kirby despite being projected to do more. And I do believe Bomberman as well. This isn't just a matter of making Ganon/Alucard 'look right' and only Ganon/Alucard.

Well, do you have any others?

Aside from the fact that he had games that sold exceptionally well between 2003 and 2004? Yeah.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Too many fans hated the cel-shaded look.

Ah. There are two explanations, and that's the one I wanted to hear. Why can't the same have happened to Yuna, what with the whole slut thing? Lara Croft isn't all that popular around these parts...
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

FFX-2 wasn't exactly well received anyway.

From most people who didn't visit Board 8, I found the game was not nearly as hated and bashed as some like to think. I have never playe dit, but between reviewers and other 'normal' people it seemed to have been quite the hit. It didn't sell as well as FFX, but I don't see why it do absolutely nothing for her considering that she was a main character in it as opposed to FFX.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Why can't the same have happened to Yuna, what with the whole slut thing?

This supposed "hate" for FFX-2 does not extend as far as you like to think. The hate for The Wind Waker, on the other hand, was very, very large prior and around its release. Well, not "hate" for the game, but the look it had.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Now, on to why Wind Waker didn't give Link an increase.

http://www.iam8bit.net/images/Rice_Katie%20-%20Girls%20of%20Nintendo%20-%20Samus%20(ink,%20marker%20on%20illustration%20paper)%208.5x11%20-%20small.jpg

Give Samus that picture in her matches and see if she doesn't decrease.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Link's change in appearance was far more drastic and unwelcomed by the general populace then anything which happend to the way Yuna looks.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

'Looks nice'? It helps explain more than just Alucard/Ganon. It has a nice habit of explaining why Squall performed as bad as he did against Kirby despite being projected to do more. And I do believe Bomberman as well. This isn't just a matter of making Ganon/Alucard 'look right' and only Ganon/Alucard.

It may make Kirby and Bomberman's values look closer to their 2k3 values, but Link vs Mega Man SFF makes Mega Man, Snake, Knuckles, Vercetti, Zero, Crash, and to a lesser extent Shadow and Tidus all look closer to their 2k3 values, and yet you quickly threw that away after seeing Zero vs Ryu H. Why is this any different, other then the fact that it supports Ganondorf's one legitimate performance in 2k4?

Aside from the fact that he had games that sold exceptionally well between 2003 and 2004? Yeah.

He did?

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I need to put something here.

If Angel Kefka deservedly made such a difference, then that explains Wesker. Heck, if Magus did SFF Luca, then that makes Luca/Wesker look less embarrassing, too. I only put much stock into the Angel Kefka match though.

It still doesn't make that much sense. Regardless of what happens, Lloyd seems ridiculously weak and far too close to a villain that most don't even like and doesn't even show up for 3/4 of the game (a la Ansem, who's about as far away from his hero as you get).
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Ya know, I've just now begun to think: the majority of us discredit many things seen in both 2k2 and the Villain Contest...and I think there's a good connection to be made here. The connection's this: only a select few characters turned out to be as expected. We expected worse/better for many characters, and what we got was better/worse (Morrigan and Kuja, anybody?). Since there's many 2k2/VC-only characters that haven't returned to prove themselves for sure, many of us are just throwing them out and trying to forget it ever happened, or say something crazy to make one's self feel better about it ("It was the first time the contest was held, so things are gonna be screwy" and "People voted for their favorite villains, so that naturally changes things", to paraphrase hundreds of quotes at once).

Granted, there are some unbelievable things in both that require some explaining or can't be explained at all, but I'm honest-to-God tired of hearing how both of them, especially the Villain Contest, should be disregarded. Pick-n-****in'-choose what should and shouldn't be believed, but there's something to believe in every contest yet.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Yep, I can believe what the Spring Contest showed about Sephiroth, Ganondorf, and Bowser being the three strongest villains on this site, respectively, but you could gather that from a Summer Contest anyway. The rest...meh.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

And why is there any reason to doubt the proportions between Sephiroth, Ganondorf, and Bowser?
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Granted, there are some unbelievable things in both that require some explaining or can't be explained at all, but I'm honest-to-God tired of hearing how both of them, especially the Villain Contest, should be disregarded. Pick-n-****in'-choose what should and shouldn't be believed, but there's something to believe in every contest yet.

This is all well and good in a pro-debating atmosphere, but as far as stats go, all mathematics before Calculus level needs to be concrete. Picking and choosing doesn't work so well when it comes to stats.
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I need to put something here.

You can't say FFX-2 was "received quite well" and then turn around and say Wind Waker was not. If anything, I'd say the backlash on FFX-2 was worse than anything the Wind Waker ever got, or at the very least, comparable.

And I still say that a sequel so poorly advertised as FFX-2 is not likely to draw in many new fans.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/7662/zelda6eb.jpg

There's the Zelda artwork from Twilight Princess.

If Zelda gets that picture against Snake, I'm taking her in the Oracle Challenge. That's a promise.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Current Score: 4/5 | Today: Frog over Riku

It may make Kirby and Bomberman's values look closer to their 2k3 values,

No, no, they were underestimated by their 2003 values. The adjustment means they would be above that, not closer to it.

and yet you quickly threw that away after seeing Zero vs Ryu H.

After? No, I have been saying there shouldn't have been an adjustment for over a year now. It was ridiculous to do such a thing when the idea of Mega Man/Link SFF is stupid. Zero/Hayabusa and even today's match seem to support the idea of the 20XX adjustments being wrong.

Why is this any different, other then the fact that it supports Ganondorf's one legitimate performance in 2k4?

He did?

The Legend of Zelda Collection that sold around 1.5 million units and was packaged with the GameCube, had Soul Calibur II release at the very end of the contest, which sold nearly a million on the GCN alone, and the re-release of The Legend of Zelda on the GBA -- not that I expect this to be a big thing. You can combine this with the Twilight Princess hype in order to create the boost. But I see no reason to believe the hype alone generated the majority of his increase.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

...Assuming it's not cropped in some horrible way, that is, or too small to be recognizable.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Current Score: 4/5 | Today: Frog over Riku

To be fair, I never said that you'll only get new information from each contest, heh. Regardless, almost everybody's taking some other info from the Villain Contest; seeing Ganon and Bowser so close to Sephiroth has affected quite afew people about Ganon/Auron and Bowser/Ryu-Tidus-Solid. Also, how many people do you see nowadays who's takin' Revolver over Yoshi? Before the Villain Contest, you saw a fair share of people taking Revolver over Bowser (including you, Leonhart).

Point is, the info you can get from the Villain Contest ought to be given more credit than it is.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I'm getting an odd feeling that Frog will be a bracket buster. Casuals love the higher seed in first round matches, and if Frog is suffering rSFF due to Riku being two generations newer, the same may apply to the bracketmakers themselves. Remember, Frog only had 44% of brackets behind him as the higher seed against Liquid Snake last year. As a lower seed against a character from Kingdom Hearts, I would not be surprised if only ~35% of people picked Frog to win.

I'm aware that I sort of contradicted myself by bringing up Frog's percentage against Liquid last year, but if Frog is so unknown to the casuals as a higher seed in a match that we thought was obvious, I wouldn't be surprised to see him suffer from the same problem even more when he's in the worse position.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

That pic would definitely make her a winner.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Frog might do better than 35%, and probably will. He was in the contest last year, so I'd think many bracketmakers would take note of that.
---
This signature avaliable for rent.

I've been preaching Zelda > Snake for weeks. I just didn't have the guts to actually go with it in my bracket.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

This is all well and good in a pro-debating atmosphere, but as far as stats go, all mathematics before Calculus level needs to be concrete. Picking and choosing doesn't work so well when it comes to stats.

Point taken, though the contest in itself isn't exactly restrained by statistics, either.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

You can't say FFX-2 was "received quite well" and then turn around and say Wind Waker was not.

I refrained from speaking of The Wind Waker's gameplay. Because for the most part, people seemed to enjoy it, although there was a significant amount of backlash toward the sailing and/or Triforce collecting.

The 'professional reviewers' both gave FFX-2 and TWW good scores, so that isn't really a problem. But outside of Board 8 I have yet to hear any sort of serious issues with FFX-2. The game still sold an impressive 1.3 million and didn't have any problem arising due to graphics or poor gameplay.

I saw far more hate or dislike of the TWW than I ever saw of FFX-2. But I'm not trying to say that FFX-2 is a better game, because I most certainly cannot say that having never played it nor do I think I would like it better than TWW. However, TWW not doing something for Link -- one of the most powerful characters in this contest -- and then FFX-2 not doing something for Yuna who has been in one game, who is not that strong, and had only been in the contest once doesn't strike as likely.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

No, no, they were underestimated by their 2003 values. The adjustment means they would be above that, not closer to it.

>_< My bad . . .


It was ridiculous to do such a thing when the idea of Mega Man/Link SFF is stupid.

It makes more sense to me then Alucard vs Seohiroth SFF. They don't even share the same genre?

The Legend of Zelda Collection that sold around 1.5 million units and was packaged with the GameCube, had

That game sold 1.5 Million Copies? How the hell did I never see a copy for sale then? WTF? Anyway, we all know how much Sonic Mega Collection and MMAC helped their respective leads. Obviously LoZ Collection outsold them, but still, we have no proof that collections actually increase a characters strength.

Soul Calibur II release at the very end of the contest, which sold nearly a million on the GCN alone,

Link =/= Ganondorf

But I see no reason to believe the hype alone generated the majority of his increase.

Meh, I do. That trailer is downright orgasmic. Heck, I would vote for Link because of that if I didn't like Cloud so much more.

---
I need to put something here.

I'm thinking enough saw what Frog did last year for Frog to have the majority of the brackets... not by a huge margin, though.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

I had Vivi > Solid in my very first run through making my bracket. Before I locked myself down, I know I had Solid beating and losing to both Vivi and Zelda, heh. Despite the heavy fire that Solid's gonna be under, I'm lookin' for a Frog-esque run to the Final Four.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I have yet to hear any sort of serious issues with FFX-2. The game still sold an impressive 1.3 million...

Yeah, because sales automatically mean a quality title. Uh-huh.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus