Well, Zelda beat Lara Croft 62-38...
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This signature avaliable for rent.

Vivi will beat Zelda.

THE COUNTDOWN CONTINUES.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 5/6 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Yuna

Riku pushes Frog back under 3000.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Random Fact: Kyo beat Abe by exactly 8400 votes.
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This signature avaliable for rent.

I'm hoping a lot of perfects drop this match...I want leaderboard glory, darnmit!

Well, I wouldn't be surprised seeing a higher percentage of people with 4/5 points get this right than the perfects...sure, the perfects have been the most accurate for all the matches so far, but I bet many of them just chose the higher seed almost every time.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Would anybody take Riku over Dante?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I wouldn't.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :

Well, I already took the sexy Terra > Dante upset pick. I'd go with Riku, too.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

I don't think Ganon would increase at ALL because of Twilight Princess hype.

Are you still stuck on that being the reason for Link's increase, or at least the majority of it? Why are you ignoring the fact that he had a game packaged with the GameCube that sold 1 - 2 million units durings its time during that 2003 - 2004 timeframe. One could also make an argument for Soul Calibur II, which was released toward the latter end of the contest. Twilight Princess most certainly played a role, but you're making it seem like that was the sole reason for Link's increase. That's just stupid.

but we really have no concrete proof of any Ganondorf values that year and I'm not comfortable with his 2k3 value.

How in the world are you not comfortable when his 2003 value? Where has he shown that he's lower than that value? We've had another contest since 2003 and he performed well enough in that to remove doubt on his decrease. Mercy, I have no idea why you people think Ganon's 2003 value may be incorrect when there hasn't been a single sign that says that's the case.

Then explain to me why Ganon should have ever dropped from 2003 to 2004. If anything he's increased slightly since then, not decreased.

I don't know, but you don't either. Ganon hasn't had any screenshots from TP that I've seen,

...Twilight Princess was not the sole reason for Link's increase. Ganon, and potentially Zelda, could have very well benefited from an increase as well. Hell, if we're solely talking about Twilight Princess then Zelda should increase as she has been featured in a screenshot and artwork.

and for all we know he is once again going to be a figure seen for only a very short portion of the game.

Yes, and what does this matter? His time in the game doesn't prevent him from being one of the strongest characters.

You may see how Sora has an advantage, despite how the stats say otherwise, but why in the world you think Alucard has no chance here is beyond me completely. The bias you spoke of earlier is rearing its head when you say something like that.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Am I the only one that thinks that Kefka/Terra's relationship will be similar to Lloyd/Mithos?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 5/6 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Yuna

Where has he shown that he's lower than that value?

Hello there, Alucard.

...And Link. *runs*
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

If you make Kefka Lloyd I'll agree with that... heh heh.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

FYI, pre-DMC3 Dante would get 47.26% on an unadjusted Frog.

Myself, I think we should all be very lucky it wasn't Dante/Riku instead of Dante/Terra; at least we had enough reason to suspect an upset there.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Hell, if we're solely talking about Twilight Princess then Zelda should increase as she has been featured in a screenshot and artwork.

Wait a tick!!! I haven't seen this artwork yet...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:49:57 PM | Message Detail
FYI, pre-DMC3 Dante would get 47.26% on an unadjusted Frog.

DMC3 should put him above that. Look at what DMC2 did to Dante. And people considered it a bad game. I can't wait to see what DMC3 does for Dante (it already got Dante the one seed and we saw Vergil break 20% on Sephiroth).
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Summer 2005 Contest - 5/6 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Yuna

I can see Terra/Kefka being like Lloyd/Mithos, though I think it heavily depends on the pictures of them to decide how strong they actually are.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Thankfully, closeups removes the likelihood of Amano art for Terra. At least the FFC FMV rendition of Terra looks somewhat like her (other than the lack of green hair, obviously).
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Hello there, Alucard.

And here I thought that Alucard helped explain quite a few things when you adjust him up for being underrated in 2003. After all, it would make sense for Ganon to decrease from the previous year. Or, better yet, be "overestimated" for no apparent reason whatsoever.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

From: LeonhartForever | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:53:39 PM | Message Detail
Thankfully, closeups removes the likelihood of Amano art for Terra. At least the FFC FMV rendition of Terra looks somewhat like her (other than the lack of green hair, obviously).

I think more people played the SNES version of FF6, so a 3D pic might hurt her.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 5/6 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Yuna

Gah! Amano art would screw Terra over...more over than her uphill battle places her already...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

And here I thought that Alucard helped explain quite a few things when you adjust him up for being underrated in 2003

And Alucard also puts Ganon and Bowser in the same ratio as the Spring Contest has them. The question still remains.

And characters don't need a "reason" to increase or decrease. It made no sense for Solid Snake to decrease last year, but he did.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/7662/zelda6eb.jpg

There's the Zelda artwork from Twilight Princess.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

I think more people played the SNES version of FF6, so a 3D pic might hurt her.

Much like Autistic-Clown Kefka, I suspect. At least they ARE in SOME game, unlike Lettuce Kefka, so it's not aallll bad.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Seeing Zelda with a sword suddenly makes her much more bad-ass. Sheik's still infinitely cooler though, heh.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Riku 48.31% 43475
Frog 51.69% 46525
TOTAL VOTES 90000
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Oooooh! Very Nice! Thanks HM!!! With every image of TP I see, it just raises my wanting this game more and more...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

And Alucard also puts Ganon and Bowser in the same ratio as the Spring Contest has them. The question still remains.

You find it far more likely that Ganon decreased and Bowser remained the same from all these past years? I find that incredibly hard to believe given what has happened since 2003. Believing Bowser increased and Ganon remained at least the same makes the most sense, at least to me. Even by keeping that, you create problems with Squall's rather lackluster performance against Kirby in 2004.

And characters don't need a "reason" to increase or decrease. It made no sense for Solid Snake to decrease last year, but he did.

Unlike Snake, Ganon did not constantly underperform expectations. In fact, I would say he performed well enough in the Spring to remove any doubt about him being 'overrated' in the stats.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Much like Autistic-Clown Kefka, I suspect. At least they ARE in SOME game, unlike Lettuce Kefka, so it's not aallll bad.

Regardless, I still think Terra's gonna get shafted with her pic. It's not like CJay is gonna use a sprite (which I think is her most recognizable pic). She is either gonna get Amano art or 3D pic regardless, so she'll get shafted big time.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 5/6 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Yuna

Throw the Spring Contest at me all you want, but I still don't trust it as a credible source.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

http://img268.imageshack.us/img268/7662/zelda6eb.jpg


Man! If Zelda were to get that full body pic in round one, Vivi would be dead SOOO fast.

And that pic just makes me regret picking Vivi again...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

What reason is there to toss it aside? Sure, there 'problems' with it, but those are in every contest, that is nothing new. I see haven't seen any good reason to disregard them when you can make sense of most it, with the exception of Liquid Snake.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

What reason is there to toss it aside? Sure, there 'problems' with it, but those are in every contest, that is nothing new. I see haven't seen any good reason to disregard them when you can make sense of most it, with the exception of Liquid Snake.

Wesker's already raised doubts about it in this contest. There were a lot of questionable things that happened in that contest regardless of how you slice it.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:01:17 PM | Message Detail
What reason is there to toss it aside? Sure, there 'problems' with it, but those are in every contest, that is nothing new. I see haven't seen any good reason to disregard them when you can make sense of most it, with the exception of Liquid Snake.

Bowser did MUCH better on Sephiroth than Mario. And Wesker's performance against Lloyd suggests something wrong. Also I cannot trust a contest that has CATS ranked above half the contest.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 5/6 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Yuna

Well, yes, I said there were problems in that contest. But we don't completely disregard a contest because it has issues, otherwise we would be ignoring a lot of recent data.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Well, if Ganondorf doubles Yuna or does better than that (Spring stats have him getting 66.71%), then we can be pretty confident in the Spring. If he does worse, then it could be FFX-2 kicking in, though I don't think that would help Yuna out much, personally. If he does better, well, then it pretty much seals the deal.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Yuna will break 40%. Thou shalt book it.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

I hope Ceej uses that TP art for Zelda. But I get the feeling that it's going to be her child pic from Ocarina.
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Moisten your dreams with man urine.
http://www.geocities.com/nicklegends/ - All the Legends of the Hidden Temple info you could possibly want.

Ganondorf will double Yuna. Thou shalt book it.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

TP Zelda art = Dead Black Mage...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Bowser did MUCH better on Sephiroth than Mario.

Is it hard to believe that Sephiroth actually, GASP, dropped? He did it in 2004 and there's no reason to think he couldn't do it again in the villain contest. Once you do that, Bowser no longer goes above Mario, but instead, goes up to the 32% value against 2004 Link. Much more believable. Sephiroth drops to Samus, while we're at it.

And Wesker's performance against Lloyd suggests something wrong. Also I cannot trust a contest that has CATS ranked above half the contest.

Villains are going to be weak here, we've constantly seen that. It's really no surprise that a good portion of the field is ridiculously weak like that. Villains outside of Sephiroth, Ganon, and Bowser, really have no place in the contest. Those three are the one's that are a complete step above everyone else. You'll notice how much weaker you get with villains after that.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

From: Aprosenf | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:06:22 PM | Message Detail
Yuna will break 40%. Thou shalt book it.

Hmmm....the more I think about it, and the more I lose faith in the Spring 2005 Contest (which had Diablo ranked above Yuna in the all-time stats), it's very possible for Yuna to break 40%.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 5/6 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Yuna

I can't see Ganondorf doubling Yuna. I just can't see it.... I hope he does get it though.

How in the world are you not comfortable when his 2003 value? Where has he shown that he's lower than that value? We've had another contest since 2003 and he performed well enough in that to remove doubt on his decrease. Mercy, I have no idea why you people think Ganon's 2003 value may be incorrect when there hasn't been a single sign that says that's the case.

Well, for one thing there is Tidus. Ganon = Tidus, and yet miraculously Tidus underperforms hugely against Mega Man. And I'm fully with the people who say that freakishly close matches inflate the stats of both characters. It works for Liquid (because of his bombing against Seph), and Frog (look at today), and possibly MC as well. It helps explain Tidus bombing against MM, and why Sam Fisher's 2k4 value is so much lower then his 2k3 one where he was, sure enough, in that nasty 4-pack. And what arguments do we have pro-Ganon's 2k3 value? A villain contest that, while Ganon performed impressively, says that Lloyd > Mithos, Tidus's match against Shadow, and Magus's against Luca ****ing Blight.

...Twilight Princess was not the sole reason for Link's increase. Ganon, and potentially Zelda, could have very well benefited from an increase as well. Hell, if we're solely talking about Twilight Princess then Zelda should increase as she has been featured in a screenshot and artwork.

Oh, I fully support a Zelda increase, as well as a Link increase. As much as I would love to see the Little Black Mage take out the Twilight Princess, that is her match to win. But what game would lead me to believe Ganon increased? Minish Cap? Is he even in that? Yup, Ganon's had virtually nothing, and I see no reason for him to increase.

Yes, and what does this matter? His time in the game doesn't prevent him from being one of the strongest characters.

Bleh . . . true.

You may see how Sora has an advantage, despite how the stats say otherwise, but why in the world you think Alucard has no chance here is beyond me completely. The bias you spoke of earlier is rearing its head when you say something like that.

I actually like both characters a lot. Other than KOS-MOS vs Luigi, this is the only match where I can say I do like both characters. I don't know for sure how I'm going to vote, but probably Sora.

If you're talking about bias against G-dorf, then hell yes. He sucks, hard. But both Sora and Alucard are great characters, and it's a shame one of them has to lose in that match.
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I need to put something here.

If Angel Kefka deservedly made such a difference, then that explains Wesker. Heck, if Magus did SFF Luca, then that makes Luca/Wesker look less embarrassing, too. I only put much stock into the Angel Kefka match though.

Regardless, as I've said before, you just need to know what to trust and what not to trust from the Villain Contest; for everything weird, there is something that makes sense too.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Ganondorf will double Yuna. Thou shalt book it.

Heh. That would mean an increase too. Because Yuna should have increased from FFX-2. I'm calling for Ganon to double Yuna as well, I'm hopin' he can pull it off.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Magus/Luca SFF doesn't make much more sense than Tidus/Mega Man SFF either, that's what I'm saying for the record.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

Villains are going to be weak here, we've constantly seen that. It's really no surprise that a good portion of the field is ridiculously weak like that.

Honestly, would you take CATS over some of the villains he was projected to beat (i.e. Robotnik, Sin, etc.)?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 5/6 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Yuna

Not necessarily. I don't think Yuna got anything from FFX-2. If you've played FFX, you know who she is, and I don't think X-2 makes her any more likable.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Well, for one thing there is Tidus. Ganon = Tidus, and yet miraculously Tidus underperforms hugely against Mega Man.

Ganon = Tidus = Magus. So, we are to assume that because Tidus performs poorly that Ganon and Magus are going to be brought down with him, ignoring the fact the match took place in an entirely different year and that Tidus could have, you know, decreased on his own. Ganon is completely free of Tidus and Magus. Tidus is completely free of Magus and Ganon. Magus is completely free of Ganon and Tidus. What happens to one does not friggin' happen to another.

In fact, I would expect Tidus to do far worse in another match against Ganon than he did in 2003. I wouldn't dare anticipate another close match. Hell, I think Ganon could possibly turn it around on Magus and beat him. You are not going to get the same results with all of these characters now. That was what happened in 2003 and Tidus bombed in 2004. You don't send the other two into question because of that.

And I'm fully with the people who say that freakishly close matches inflate the stats of both characters. It works for Liquid (because of his bombing against Seph), and Frog (look at today), and possibly MC as well.

Or that could just be an issue with adjusting Mega Man, thus adjusting the entire 20XX Division.

And what arguments do we have pro-Ganon's 2k3 value? A villain contest that, while Ganon performed impressively,

And by adjusting Alucard up it calls Ganon/Alucard perfectly and explains why Kirby did so much better on Squall. I believe it does with Bomberman too.

Oh, I fully support a Zelda increase, as well as a Link increase

But there's no increase for Ganon? Why? That doesn't make sense.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg