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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 166
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:44:54 PM | Message Detail
Riku 48% 34557
Frog 52% 37443
TOTAL VOTES 72000
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:46:12 PM | Message Detail
The way we've been throwing around the word lately, Tidus did get SFFed by Mega Man. Apparently players of both Mega Man and Final Fantasy X overwhelmingly preferred Mega Man as a character to Tidus.

It makes about as much sense as Mario SFFing Joanna.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:48:33 PM | Message Detail
This match is actually behaving quite a bit like Tidus/Shadow.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:50:12 PM | Message Detail
Riku cut into Frog's lead.

He's getting the night vote.
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:50:44 PM | Message Detail
Makes sense, what with the DARKNESS and all...
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:51:16 PM | Message Detail
This match has reminded me of Tidus/Shadow since the beginning. Including everyone making the random "OMGZ SHADOW IS CUTTING INTO THE LEAD!" topics.
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:52:56 PM | Message Detail
IMNSHO, saying that Kerrigan is being capable of beating Dante is crazy.

Now now now, I really want to hear why you would think that, since it's probably just as crazy as say Master Hand > Kuja or Starcraft > Wind Waker....
no wait that was clinically insane, nevermind =P
off-topic, do you have AIM creative?
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:56:16 PM | Message Detail
Starcraft > Wind Waker wasn't that crazy to think of. I knew that the winner of that first match would be a favorite in that division... unfortunately I picked Halo.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:58:26 PM | Message Detail
So, Riku's taking the night vote?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:01:01 PM | Message Detail
I hope Riku takes the night-vote, and in a dominating fashion; I'm talkin' cuttin' down Frog's lead 1,000 votes or so. Of course, it's very questionable whether or not Riku can even keep the lead from growing from here on out, much less pummel Frog over seven hours in what's generally Frog's/CT's best voting-period...but we're this close as is and I don't care about either of them, so I hope this gets even closer.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:06:06 PM | Message Detail
Solid Snake was also exposed to the Nintendo fanbase afew months before the contest last year...on the Gamecube, no less, not a handheld.

And Twin Snakes bombed...horribly. Chain of Memories actually sold quite well. Don't be surprised if we see Cloud and Squall benefit from it a little (nothing drastic, of course).
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:06:18 PM | Message Detail
As an interesting side-note, if Riku = Sora and Frog finishes with 52%, Frog lands at 28.05% on Link 2k4, which both puts him between Alucard-through-Ganon-2k3 and Bowser-2k3 AND below his 20XX-adjusted value by 1.91%.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:07:11 PM | Message Detail
Anyone thinks this will go below 51% by the end of the day?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 5/6 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Yuna
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:08:32 PM | Message Detail
I've gotta say that Riku keeps impressing me more and more as this match goes along. This is a legit Sweet Sixteen character we have here with good bracket placement.

If he had switched places with Tidus, he very likely would be.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:09:29 PM | Message Detail
Heh, imagine if he had DK's 4 seed and performed like this against Master Chief.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:10:58 PM | Message Detail
If he had switched places with Tidus... oh man, we'd have all gone with Kirby, and our brackets would've gotten shot there.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 004/005 - Matches: 04/05 - Rank: 07383/33793 - Today: Frog - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:13:13 PM | Message Detail
Interesting to note that Riku has taken 120 votes off of Frog's lead in the last hour.

At the 17:10 mark, this match has 73,742 votes.

Ness/CJ - 80,849
Zero/Hayabusa - 73,645
Samus/Yuri - 68,488

We've passed up Zero/Hayabusa now, so 90k is lookin' likely now.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:20:06 PM | Message Detail
Well, Frog's beginning to fight back. Looks like his night vote is starting to arrive.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: mr_BRIAN | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:21:07 PM | Message Detail
...A Frog match might actually finish farther away than 48/52? :o
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: Radix | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:21:08 PM | Message Detail
From: Slowflake | #216
If he had switched places with Tidus... oh man, we'd have all gone with Kirby, and our brackets would've gotten shot there.

I would've easily taken Riku over Kirby >>

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http://users.ign.com/collection/Radix1337
In my restless dreams I see that town...Silent Hill...
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:24:15 PM | Message Detail
I think many of us would be kickin' ourselves if Riku and Fisher had switched places, too. Him beating DK, THEN gettin' so close to MC...that'd been wicked. Heck, switch Riku and Kratos Aurion; seeing Riku pull out a close one on Diablo would have been a bracket-buster for us too.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:25:02 PM | Message Detail
I am fairly confident that Riku would not be able to beat either Yoshi, or Kirby, or Dante, or any of these people in a direct match. Something fishy is running amuck with Frog, something we will not know until Chief gets a chance to perform against DK and Crono.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:26:51 PM | Message Detail
I'm not taking any of this until I see Samus/Frog.

*waits patiently*
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Riku vs. Frog - Bracket: Frog - Vote: Frog (4/5)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:27:01 PM | Message Detail
...or when Samus faces Frog.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:27:41 PM | Message Detail
Just to note. I said this match would be close.

Also just another mark to go under the listing "20XX Factor is Complete Bunk". First Zero, Now Frog. Snake's next.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:28:06 PM | Message Detail
Well, we could wait and see what Master Chief does against CATS.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:29:21 PM | Message Detail
Snake won't tell us anything against Manny though. Mega Man/Conker ought to tell us something, as might MC/CATS.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:31:05 PM | Message Detail
This match is interesting in how you can take it as proof against 20XXF and/or proof for new-Square being able to go above and beyond against old-Square. This makes Mega and Solid look bad while making Squall and Vincent look good.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:35:04 PM | Message Detail
Well, it depends on the pic with MC/CATS, methinks.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:39:49 PM | Message Detail
Hmm, suggestion for the automatic updater.

Would it be alright if a Total Vote column was added to it?
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Riku vs. Frog - Bracket: Frog - Vote: Frog (4/5)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:39:57 PM | Message Detail
Depending on how it looks, we can either use normal CATS or Sp2k5 CATS.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:40:04 PM | Message Detail
I think this does pretty well at proving my theory that if three characters get about 50% on each other, they will not be equal in strength against other opponents... The theory still has no logical roots, but I doubt Master Chief would have any trouble pulling 60% against Riku.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:41:19 PM | Message Detail
I really can't see Master Chief beating Riku so easily, even with Halo 2 behind him.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:41:25 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Kaxon | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:04:43 PM | Message Detail
Now now now, I really want to hear why you would think that, since it's probably just as crazy as say Master Hand > Kuja or Starcraft > Wind Waker....

Starcraft > Wind Waker is crazy? Seemed downright obvious to me. =P
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Current Score: 4/5 | Today: Frog over Riku
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:06:42 PM | Message Detail
Neither was Master Hand > Kuja, heh.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:11:52 PM | Message Detail
Starcraft > Wind Waker is crazy? Seemed downright obvious to me. =P
http://www.oraclechallenge.com/archives.php?contest=SpC2k4&type=match&match=55
nice memories...

Neither was Master Hand > Kuja, heh.

Well yeah, that was more talking about the general reaction (or HM's specifically =P) than my own thoughts. I have Kerrigan > Terra so at least I'll be having fun ;)
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:20:42 PM | Message Detail
I did this earlier when Riku had 46.85%...now that he has 48.1%, I'm doin' it again; here's how Riku looks under the following circumstances:

--If Frog's right with 20XXF, Riku's at 28.82% on Link 2k4.
--If Frog's right with 20XXF but needs 1.5% deducted from Frog/Solid, Riku's at 28.28% on Link 2k4.
--If Frog's right with unadjusted stats, Riku's at 25.95% on Link 2k4.
--If Frog's right with unadjusted stats and needs 1.5% deducted from Frog/Solid, Riku's at 25.15%
--If Frog = Master Chief 2k3, Riku's at 23.43% on Link 2k4.
--If Frog still beats Liquid 2k5 with 50.05% and Sephiroth 2k4 = 2k5, Riku's at 19.66% on Link 2k4.

So, now, Riku could do anything from being on par with Bowser 2k3 and beat Sora with 53.21% to being on par with Viewtiful Joe and lose to Jill with 47.63%...interesting numbers.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:22:19 PM | Message Detail
Being labeled as one of the three crazies was funny, looking back on it. I'll be honest though, Leonhart and HM (especially Leonhart) had me on the verge of switching afew times.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:34:08 PM | Message Detail
Fact is there is no way Riku > Sora. None. It could be a pretty close relationship aka Magus/Crono.

Putting Riku a percent less than Sora takes Frog dangerous close to his unadjusted level.

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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:35:02 PM | Message Detail
Being labeled as one of the three crazies was funny, looking back on it. I'll be honest though, Leonhart and HM (especially Leonhart) had me on the verge of switching afew times.

Three crazies?
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:37:45 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, HM named three of us as the three crazies (me, and I think you and FastFalcon).
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:38:14 PM | Message Detail
Ah. Ironic. :P
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:38:58 PM | Message Detail
utting Riku a percent less than Sora takes Frog dangerous close to his unadjusted level.

While I have under-estimated Riku alot, I also don't buy Riku being within 1% of Sora.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:41:16 PM | Message Detail
Neither do I. I still take Vivi over Riku everyday of the week and twice on Sunday. But thats just for reference. Fact is Frog and Zero both either appear to be at or below their 2004 Unadjusted levels. Strange concidences are going on.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: bigkevinm84 | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:44:02 PM | Message Detail
So, you guys who picked Alucard>Sora (myself included), does this match make you feel less confident about it? It sure does for me... Sora will get a bracket vote for people thinking the 2 seed will win, and also, seeing how strong Riku is in this match, Sora>Alucard is looking like a distinct possibility...
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:47:18 PM | Message Detail
Not really, I dont know how this affects Sora. The only thing I see is Frog being weak.

The only condition I can see for Sora being much stronger is if Samus actually did overpeform against Sora (after doing the same versus Lara and Sam) and just werent able to tell.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:50:26 PM | Message Detail
Sora really can't get too much stronger without Aeris rSFFing him.

But if that's true, then Vincent looks even more deadly in the Devil Division, regardless of whether it's Magus or Squall he faces.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:51:41 PM | Message Detail
But for Sora to be stronger you also have to assume Samus is a beast.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:54:18 PM | Message Detail
Oh, that she is.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 004/005 - Matches: 04/05 - Rank: 07383/33793 - Today: Frog - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
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