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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 166
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:26:15 PM | Message Detail
Squall was less than four years old in 2k2 (I'm fairly sure, anyway), and it looked like he aged very badly.

... What the ****?
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:27:35 PM | Message Detail
2005-07-24 14:25:01 29493 32468 47.60% 52.40% 2975
2005-07-24 14:20:00 29296 32324 47.54% 52.46% 3028

Holy crap. If he could do that a few more times... heh heh.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:28:01 PM | Message Detail
Squall was less than four years old in 2k2 (I'm fairly sure, anyway), and it looked like he aged very badly.

What's so confusing about that? Squall did absolutely horrible in 2k2, but when he came into the spotlight again thanks to Kingdom Hearts he became a powerhouse.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:28:30 PM | Message Detail
I don't think Ganon would increase at ALL because of Twilight Princess hype. There's no reason to like Ganon more because of Twilight Princess since he hasn't even been shown yet, and Twilight Princess hasn't brought Zelda fans to the site yet, unless you think that the Twilight Princess board is bustling enough to make a difference.

Link's reason for increasing due to Twilight Princess would be that his character design/model is much more favorable than his Wind Waker model.

To tell you the truth, if there was no adult Link in OoT, SSB, and SSBM I highly doubt that Link would be AS popular as he is right now. Not enough to drastically change things, but I could see Cloud consistently beating him. Of course, that's just my view on things.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:31:00 PM | Message Detail
Damn..

Frog drops 12 votes in 5 minutes..
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 5/5
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Frog Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:32:20 PM | Message Detail
If a character is going to drop off because of age, it'd surely drop most quickly in the first few years after release. Same way car depreciation works.

Popularity doesn't work like that.... The farther away you are from being in someone's mind, the less popular you will be. Take Kratos from God of War. Bearing no sequels, people would probably remember him in a year or two, but 4 years from now he'd be an afterthought.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:33:13 PM | Message Detail
No....

You could say the same for someone like Cloud..

No Sequels ~ Still remembered 10 years later..
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 5/5
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Frog Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:33:33 PM | Message Detail
Does Shadowdude think we're talking about the character's GAMING age? <_<;
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:37:07 PM | Message Detail
Dear God NO...

2005-07-24 14:35:00 29906 32864 47.64% 52.36% 2958
2005-07-24 14:30:01 29695 32658 47.62% 52.38% 2963
2005-07-24 14:25:01 29493 32468 47.60% 52.40% 2975
2005-07-24 14:20:00 29296 32324 47.54% 52.46% 3028

Don't tell me Frog's at it AGAIN?
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SC2K5 status - Points: 004/005 - Matches: 04/05 - Rank: 07383/33793 - Today: Frog - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:37:23 PM | Message Detail
Does Shadowdude think we're talking about the character's GAMING age? <_<;

No, but this is SQUALL. Somehow, I don't think that a character from a SQUARE RPG is gonna fade out quite that fast.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:48:42 PM | Message Detail
Explain to me how Alucard putting up 43% against Ganon wasn't impressive.

I won't say it's um-impressive considering Alucard do better then was expected, but we really have no concrete proof of any Ganondorf values that year and I'm not comfortable with his 2k3 value.

Then explain to me why Ganon should have ever dropped from 2003 to 2004. If anything he's increased slightly since then, not decreased.

I don't know, but you don't either. Ganon hasn't had any screenshots from TP that I've seen, and for all we know he is once again going to be a figure seen for only a very short portion of the game. And you can't ignore Sora's new game, with another new game on the horizon (both of which he stars in). There is absolutely no reason to believe Sora shouldn't increase. And unlike our friend Alucard, Sora has an incredibly nice concrete value in 2k4, including making a match everyone thought he would lose into a 60/40 match in his favor.

If there is one thing I will give Alucard, it's a CT type effect. SotN is somewhat unique among the popular games here, and Alucard wasn't exactly the most recognizable character when he made his 2k2 debut. Many people have came forward and admitted to buying SotN after seeing his contest runs those years (me and you included). But there was no run last year to draw attention to him, so any increase that he could have gotten from 2k2 to 2k3 and 2k3 to 2k4 will not be to the same degree he got from 2k4 to now, if there is one at all.

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I need to put something here.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:51:26 PM | Message Detail
Unless you think the character's bit roles in KH account for a significant amount of their popularity, then the characters from a SQUARE RPG do indeed fade out that fast. On the bright side, it doesn't take much to get those characters back into their fan's minds, which is why Kingdom Hearts could have the effect that it did.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:51:34 PM | Message Detail
Riku 47.66% 30483
Frog 52.34% 33483
TOTAL VOTES 63966

What a nice random refresh!
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Riku vs. Frog - Bracket: Frog - Vote: Frog (4/5)
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:54:05 PM | Message Detail
I only think it made a difference in Squall's case as he played the biggest role out of all the participants in that game and is actually much more likeable. For someone like Cloud, Aeris, and especially Sephiroth, I highly doubt that their appearances in Kingdom Hearts would make them jump that much in popularity.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:55:06 PM | Message Detail
Unless you think the character's bit roles in KH account for a significant amount of their popularity, then the characters from a SQUARE RPG do indeed fade out that fast.

You think Jill Valentine would've beaten Squall in 2002?

~_~
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:56:53 PM | Message Detail
You think Jill Valentine would've beaten Squall in 2002?

Absolutely, and I see little reason as to why that wouldn't be the case.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:20:32 PM | Message Detail
Let me ask this now: Frog or Sora, who wins?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:22:03 PM | Message Detail
I'd put my money on Sora right now...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:22:09 PM | Message Detail
Probably Sora. Samus/Frog will bring some closure to this, since Samus faced Sora before.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 004/005 - Matches: 04/05 - Rank: 07383/33793 - Today: Frog - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: King Morgoth | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:22:24 PM | Message Detail
Let me ask this now: Frog or Sora, who wins?
Same answer as before this match, Sora > Frog (a nice upset pick anyway)
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SpC2k4 Triple Crown WINNER (Oracle, Betting, Spread Betting)
SC2k4 - 12th place
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:22:55 PM | Message Detail
Certainly Riku can't be that close to Sora. Sora should easily be able to make up the 2-5% difference.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:23:17 PM | Message Detail
Riku is absolutely refusing to stay over 3,000 votes away from frog.

I'd probably take Sora in that match now, in a close one. I'd only expect sora to do to frog what he's doing to Riku right now at the most.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:25:00 PM | Message Detail
For what it's worth, in the unadjusted stats, Frog and Sora are dead-even: 50-50. If Mega Man deserved being adjusted against Link at all, that gives Frog a bit more of an edge.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:27:36 PM | Message Detail
I think that GBA KH was also capable of giving sora a small boost. Enough of one to put him slightly over frog. I still think that megamna vs. link has zero SFF though. This match, and zero's performance give me no reason to believe that there was.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
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From: Lopen | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:30:26 PM | Message Detail
HaRRicH, you assume that nothing "suspect" went on during Frog/Snake. I'm all for adjusting that entire section of the bracket with the exception of Frog, Master Chief, Crash Bandicoot, and Liquid Snake.

That's my take on it. Hell it may even work out better to drop those 4... we'll see next round.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: creativename | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:31:28 PM | Message Detail
I'm with those that say Sora might've gone up a little bit since last year, perhaps because of Chain of Memories.

I didn't really hear much about Chain of Memories after it's release, so I wouldn't figure it to have that much impact. But when it was first announced I thought it could be big, because KH would now have a Nintendo fanbase as well as a Sony one. Don't think that really happened because it wasn't that much of a hit; but it might've helped a little.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:32:09 PM | Message Detail
Absolutely, and I see little reason as to why that wouldn't be the case.

I couldn't see Jill avoiding a doubling from Solid snake, personally.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:33:11 PM | Message Detail
I did say "for what it's worth"; I'd take Sora over Frog in a close one, I just thought that it'd be interesting to point out since everybody seemed to side with Sora.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:35:21 PM | Message Detail
Also for what it's worth, talking about Sora being exposed to the Nintendo fanbase now and all...Solid Snake was also exposed to the Nintendo fanbase afew months before the contest last year...on the Gamecube, no less, not a handheld.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:39:45 PM | Message Detail
I couldn't see Jill avoiding a doubling from Solid snake, personally.

Now, certainly not, but back then she beat Kirby. And I don't think Snake has ever been capable of doubling Kirby. Do note that she put up similar numbers on Kirby in 2k2 as Squall did in 2k4.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: Tjian | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:42:52 PM | Message Detail
Riku 47.78% 32253
Frog 52.22% 35253
TOTAL VOTES 67506

Random coming online vote total.
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Happiness is like peeing on yourself. Everyone can see it, but only you feel it's warmth.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:43:43 PM | Message Detail
Am I the only one who thinks the Snake we're gonna see in this contest, is powerful one?

And so far, Riku is the first new character that will end this contest on a high note. Other new characters that I think will end well will be:

1) Tifa Lockheart
2) Leon Kennedy
3) Possibly Vincent, if he can get past Dante and do well on Magus. I have Dante > Vincent though.

That's it. Feel free to add in any others that you think won't bomb horribly.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 5/6 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Yuna
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:43:57 PM | Message Detail
Consider how much weaker Kirby was in 2k2 than any other time though.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:44:10 PM | Message Detail
So...this one is fairing better than Samus/Yuri but no where close to CJ/Ness I take it...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:45:31 PM | Message Detail
Well, either Vincent of Kerrigan will do well, as one of those two has to win and both are capable of beating Dante.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:49:57 PM | Message Detail
Kerrigan's gonna be lucky to be stronger than Diablo, and Dante would beat Diablo. Vincent's gonna be a dud if he ISN'T as strong as Dante.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Bormun | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:51:47 PM | Message Detail
I think Jill vs. Squall would be too close to call in 2002. It's difficult to see a match that was 60-40 in one character's favor being able to be easily won by the other character one year earlier. However, I could be wrong, because 2002 was just an odd year statswise... I personally think that the reason for that is because of a largely different voter pool, but that's not something that I can prove.

Perhaps Snake merely overperformed on Squall in 2k2? Perhaps the new voters that the contest gained over time in 2k2 were not as strong Snake supporters for some reason? I dunno. Squall's huge jump from one year to the next is a contest oddity I doubt we'll ever solve... or at least, that I'll ever be sure of.
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I can't think of anything to put here, but I can't just leave it blank, can I?
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:53:46 PM | Message Detail
Now, certainly not, but back then she beat Kirby. And I don't think Snake has ever been capable of doubling Kirby. Do note that she put up similar numbers on Kirby in 2k2 as Squall did in 2k4.

Kirby did seem very weak in 2002, though. Also, I think that Snake could leech some of RE's fanbase. Now Ocelot/Nemesis doesn't help my case much, but I still would never imagine Snake dipping under 66% against Jill. Actually, the two have both dropped, it seems.

On the topic of newcomers, I imagine Leon will be lucky to break 30% against Mega Man.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:56:35 PM | Message Detail
I don't see how Final Fantasy's version of Dante wouldn't be more popular than Dante himself seeing how Vincent has similar appeal WITH the Final Fantasy 7 pedigree. Vincent's game is even looking to be Final Fantasy 7's version of Devil May Cry. I wouldn't be surprised if that was the reason why Ceej set them up to face each other.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:00:48 PM | Message Detail
I don't see how Final Fantasy's version of Dante wouldn't be more popular than Dante himself

...because it's the Dante of FF7. That's similar to saying how Final Fantasy's version of KOS-MOS wouldn't be more popular than KOS-MOS herself.

Don't take my analogies here too seriously though; obviously, they're not connected like that.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:02:32 PM | Message Detail
I still think Leon will get 30-35% on Mega Man.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 5/6 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Yuna
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:03:00 PM | Message Detail
Nah, he'll get SFF'd by Mega Man, just like Tidus did.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: creativename | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:04:45 PM | Message Detail
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:45:31 PM | Message Detail
Well, either Vincent of Kerrigan will do well, as one of those two has to win and both are capable of beating Dante.


IMNSHO, saying that Kerrigan is being capable of beating Dante is crazy.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:06:29 PM | Message Detail
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:03:00 PM | Message Detail
Nah, he'll get SFF'd by Mega Man, just like Tidus did.


Even still, I consider his ceiling to be Tidus, while his floor to be Jill.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 5/6 points
Current Match Prediction: Ganondorf vs. Yuna
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:07:59 PM | Message Detail
Tidus didn't get SFF'd by Megaman..
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 5/5
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Frog Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:08:36 PM | Message Detail
28%-31% is my guess for Leon on Mega Man.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:09:21 PM | Message Detail
Fine, I'll start adding </sarcasm> tags to my sig when I say something like that.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: Tequilla Gundam | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:42:23 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: DarkLink89 | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:44:22 PM | Message Detail
Riku 48% 34537
Frog 52% 37417
TOTAL VOTES 71954
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"For the next 15 years, just like the last 15, handheld gaming will be known by one name: Nintendo" - Reggie Fils-Aime
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:44:39 PM | Message Detail
Riku 48% 34550
Frog 52% 37431
TOTAL VOTES 71981
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
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