(b) My gut feeling that he rSFFed Frog. Recency and all that.

...But wouldn't that work AGAINST him?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

(b) My gut feeling that he rSFFed Frog. Recency and all that.

Sora didn't exactly do too well against Aeris.
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :

Against who? I just have a totally unproven idea in my head taht a 32-bit-or-later Square character will inherently do better head-to-head against an SNES-or-earlier Square character.

Like Squall vs Magus, though I have Magus coming out of that one.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu

By "recency" I meant "new-school Square" in general.

Sorry about the poor semantic choice. =\
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu

Aeris > Frog, FF7 > CT, and 32-64-bit era > 16-32-bit era (this one's more of a guess).
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

There's no guarantee that Alucard has gotten any stronger. His 2k2 figure is based on the assumption that Cloud would have gotten 37% on Link, which is asinine, and his 2k4 figure is anyone's guess because we still don't know what to make of Ganondorf.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

At the 13:30 mark, this match has 57,733 votes.

Ness/CJ - 64,293
Zero/Hayabusa - 58,455
Samus/Yuri - 55,111

At the very least, this match should break 85,000. 90k might be pushin' it.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

32-64-bit era > 16-32-bit era (this one's more of a guess).

Well, the two most popular games on this site are from that era, though it takes a while before you see another one in the stats...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Speaking of which, since that thought was put into my mind and there's not much to discuss about this match at the moment...Mario 64 vs. Mario World: Who wins and by how much?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Riku 47.5% 27701
Frog 52.5% 30623
TOTAL VOTES 58324
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

It's taking Frog about 70 minutes (give or take) to add 100 votes to his lead right now.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Super Mario 64 with 64%.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu

I'd take Super Mario 64. I love both games though, and it'd pain me to see one of them have to lose.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I never understood the appeal for Alucard > Sora and never will. We haven't seen a good value for Alucard since 2k3, while Sora majorly impressed last year.

Explain to me how Alucard putting up 43% against Ganon wasn't impressive. Then explain to me why Ganon should have ever dropped from 2003 to 2004. If anything he's increased slightly since then, not decreased. Alucard is the one projected to win with around 51% and Alucard is the one who will be winning that match with more than his projection.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Mario 64 vs. Mario World: Who wins and by how much?

Super Mario 64 with around 55%.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Explain to me how Alucard putting up 43% against Ganon wasn't impressive.

Because where Ganondorf stands is still a question mark, at least for about 10 more hours.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Oh, and to give a percentage, I'll say SM64 with 53%.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Because where Ganondorf stands is still a question mark, at least for about 10 more hours.

I honestly have no clue at all how you could think Ganon has decreased, but whatever. We'll find out shortly... maybe. Even with that match, there are some things to consider if Ganon performs under 66%.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

I think Spring 2005 Ganon is legit, and I still have him only get 65% on Yuna.
---
Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Riku vs. Frog - Bracket: Frog - Vote: Frog (4/5)

I honestly have no clue at all how you could think Ganon has decreased, but whatever.

Decreased? No.

Overestimated? Maybe.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

That's understandable given that Yuna has had a game since then.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

I'd say Super Mario 64. More recent... more hyped... It was the first BIG jump into the 3D realm while Super Mario World was essentially an improvement on Super Mario Bros. 3. Although if it were up to me:

SMB3 > SMW >>>>> SM64
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Overestimated? Maybe.

And yet Tidus isn't?
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

SM64 > SMW > SMS > SMB3.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Meh, you can bring Tidus down with Ganon and still have plenty of breathing room to beat Kirby.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Meh, you can bring Tidus down with Ganon and still have plenty of breathing room to beat Kirby.

Not if you bring him down by 2k3 Alucard.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Perhaps Ganon isn't being over-estimated so much as Sephiroth.

Hmmmm.....
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Not if you bring him down by 2k3 Alucard.

I don't see how, considering they both faced Ganon directly.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Oh, right. Ignore that. I was thinking that Ganondorf/Alucard was a close match, for some reason.
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

I only wish Ganondorf/Alucard were a close match...It'd make Squall > Magus a lot more likely.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Even IF Sephiroth is overrated in 2k3, Mega Man and Solid Snake are directly connected to him.

*cue SMRPG's SMB3 Bowser fight remix*
---
Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Since we're talking Magus, Ganondorf, and Tidus, let me bring something up.

2k3 Magus would be expected to get 42.58% on 2k4 Crono. He got 30.22%. That's an underperformance of 12.36% due to SFF.

2k3 Ganondorf would be expected to get 31.88% on 2k4 Link. He got 12.10%. That's an underperformance of 19.78% due to SFF.

2k3 Tidus would be expected to get 48.14% on unadjusted 2k4 Mega Man. He got 35.22%. That's an underperformance of 12.92% for no reason whatsoever.
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Comparing between years is extremely accurate!
---
SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu

Ganon will not double Yuna. M I RITE?

---
A E I OWN U

Riku 47.52% 28720
Frog 52.48% 31722
TOTAL VOTES 60442

Frog crosses the 3000 vote lead barrier.
---
The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :

Comparing between years is extremely accurate!

Excellent that you think that. Then there's simply no way that Tidus beats Kirby, as Kirby is stronger in the 2k4 stats and there's no reason to bring Tidus up whatsoever because using past years is worthless.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Which only makes that match look weirder, heh, but it doesn't change my mind on him performing better than expected against Shadow, a match expected to be very close. If Tidus had only faced Mega Man last year or had under-performed on somebody else first (maybe faced somebody new), then I'd believe Mega/Tidus alot more. Instead though, it's just that one match that stands out when he also had a match supporting what he HAD been doin' for two years before then.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Excellent that you think that. Then there's simply no way that Tidus beats Kirby, as Kirby is stronger in the 2k4 stats and there's no reason to bring Tidus up whatsoever because using past years is worthless.

I meant that comparing different characters between years is inaccurate.

I.E., comparing a character's own values from 2002 to 2003 to 2004 is okay to catch trends, but it's sort of kinky to compare Tidus 2002 with Link 2004 or whatnot.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu

I compared the only good data we have on the Magus/Ganondorf/Tidus change to the characters they faced in 2k4 and implied that it was odd for Tidus to underperform more than Magus when Mega Man has absolutely nothing to do with him. Of course those 2k3 values aren't accurate now. Magus and Ganondorf are likely a bit higher and Tidus is likely a lot lower.
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

2k3 Tidus would be expected to get 48.14% on unadjusted 2k4 Mega Man. He got 35.22%. That's an underperformance of 12.92% for no reason whatsoever.

That's the reason I picked Tidus to win his division, I just cannot see any reason for his poor showing against Mega Man other than Mega Man being overpowerful.

Yes, it's a risk but so was Diablo over Kefka.
---
Today's subliminal thought is:

Magus and Ganondorf are likely a bit higher and Tidus is likely a lot lower.

Why Magus?
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu

Why would Ganon and Magus likely gain while Tidus drops so much though? I'm not saying any of those three are connected to one-another, but why would there suddenly be such a big gap between Ganon/Magus and Tidus?
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I've not played SM64, but my hunch is that it'd lose to both SMW and SMB3.
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

Ganondorf is probably gaining strength due to the upcoming release of Twilight Princess (is he in the game itself? Even if he isn't, the publicity of a Zelda game has to affect him somewhat).
---
Today's subliminal thought is:

I like SMW more than SM64. But SM64 is really one of the most fun games I've played. And I think it'd win, as it seems the 64-PSX generation is the most popular around here.
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

The Spring contest points to a Ganondorf increase, and Link had a nice increase himself. A Magus increase is more speculation, but is based on the emulation thing that keeps giving Crono increases. And Tidus is falling just like all of new Square minus Cloud. I would have expected Squall and Aeris to give Ganondorf close matches in 2k3, but no longer, and Tidus has probably aged the worst out of all three.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

X_X

Tidus, aging? He's less than 4 years old.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu

Squall was less than four years old in 2k2 (I'm fairly sure, anyway), and it looked like he aged very badly.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Tidus, aging? He's less than 4 years old.

If a character is going to drop off because of age, it'd surely drop most quickly in the first few years after release. Same way car depreciation works.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

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