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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 166
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:13:01 AM | Message Detail
Lower thine guard, and thou'rt allowing the enemy in.



*Creativename's websites*

Everything you could ever imagine:
http://www.sc2k5.com
http://www.sc2k4.com

Summer 2002 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/1

Summer 2003 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/2

Spring 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/3

Summer 2004 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/4

Summer 2005 Contest Information:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/taxonomy/term/5

Sortable Table for Every Contest Match:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/19



*Extrapolated Standings*

Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/11

Simple Explanation of Extrapolated Standings:
A = Strongest Character
B = Character Weaker than A
C = Character Weaker than B
To figure out a character's Xsts Percentage ---> [(CvB)(BvA)]/50 = CvA
To compare how C would do against B ---> [(CvA)/(BvA)]*50 = CvB
To figure out how B would do against A ---> [(CvA)/(CvB)]*50 = BvA

Summer 2002 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/13

Summer 2003 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/14

Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/15

SFF Adjusted Spring 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/16

Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

SFF Adjusted Summer 2004 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Spring 2005 Extrapolated Standings:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/27

All Time Extrapolated Standings:
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/alltimexsts.htm



*Solarshadow's Sites*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/2003/index.html

Spring 2004 Contest: (not currently updating)
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/sp2004/index.html



*Old Stats topics*

Summer 2002 Contest:
http://solarshadow2002.tripod.com/page1.html

Summer 2003 Contest:
http://solarshadow-stats.tripod.com/archive/topic1p1.html
http://www.angelfire.com/games5/sum_contest/Page1.htm (See note)

2003-2004 Off-Season:
http://membres.lycos.fr/shindohikaru/stats1.htm (See note)
Note: Don't use the links in the topic to browse through the pages, change the page number in the URL.

Spring 2004 Pre-Season (Chance the number after "Season" to view other pages; there are three of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringPreSeason1.htm

Spring 2004 Contest (Change the number after "Stats" to view other pages; there are eight of them):
http://sc2k4.com/archive/04SpringStats1.htm



*Match Pictures*

All the match pics, save for three from 2002:
http://www.sc2k5.com/gallery/index.php



*Miscellaneous*

Creativename's Page of Links:
http://sc2k4.com/links.php

MMXcalibur's Contest Sites:
http://prophetchallenge.hyperboards2.com/index.cgi
http://www.freewebs.com/mmxcalibur/

Poll Vote Total Updater:
http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/25

All Time Top 25/Top 10 Lists:
http://www.rpgdl.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3251



!yawa tsoP
From: voltch | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:13:25 AM | Message Detail
first post
---
Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:14:21 AM | Message Detail
Now! This is it! Now is the time to choose! Die and be free of pain or live and fight your sorrow! Now is the time to shape your stories! Your fate is in your hands!

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:15:11 AM | Message Detail
My life retain'eth its meaning!
---
SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: TheGreatMaster | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:16:51 AM | Message Detail
Mario > Crono

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:19:16 AM | Message Detail
Solid > Samus.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:45:42 AM | Message Detail
Okay, so, assuming Riku finishes with what he's got right now (46.85%), let's see where all he could end up at in the stats:

--If Frog's right with 20XXF, Riku's at 28.07% on Link 2k4.
--If Frog's right with 20XXF but needs 1.5% deducted from Frog/Solid, Riku's at 27.21% on Link 2k4.
--If Frog's right with unadjusted stats, Riku's at 25.27% on Link 2k4.
--If Frog's right with unadjusted stats and needs 1.5% deducted from Frog/Solid, Riku's at 24.49%
--If Frog = Master Chief 2k3, Riku's at 22.84% on Link 2k4.
--If Frog still beats Liquid 2k5 with 50.05% and Sephiroth 2k4 = 2k5, Riku's at 19.15% on Link 2k4.

Keep in mind it looks like Riku's still gaining...but right now, he looks like he can range anywhere from above Sora to barely beating Duke Nukem.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:47:39 AM | Message Detail
Thine posteth hath beeneth too earlyeth!

*listens to Linkin Park while staring at a poster of Cyrus...eth*
---
That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: cyko | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:49:00 AM | Message Detail
after playing Chain of Memories, i definitely like Riku much more than Frog.

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer
is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:53:27 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, heh; I was kind of expecting the other topic to fill up quicker than it is.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:58:43 AM | Message Detail
Looks like Frog lowered his guard and underestimated Riku, as did most of us. I really started to think he could do well yesterday. I'm quite impressed with what I've seen.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: OrangeKidJosh | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:00:28 AM | Message Detail
I think they're battling with CoM rules, and Frog can't get any decent cards...
From: swiftojr | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:00:36 AM | Message Detail
Frog's lead has been at a fairly steady 2700-2800 votes for a bit now.
~~~
Trivia XV: Dragostea Din Tei
http://www.audioscrobbler.com/user/cokes311/
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:01:08 AM | Message Detail
"You don't have what it takes to save Kairi. It's up to me. Only the Keyblade master can open the secret door...and change the world."

---
I need to put something here.
From: Haste2 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:04:05 AM | Message Detail
I'm loving the contest so far...

First Ness, then Wesker, then Riku... hey, I saw one of those surprises coming.

Alucard's chances against Sora look pretty awful now. No, no, it's gotta be ALL Frog's weakness, so Alucard will STILL win! It's all part of Alucard's plan...

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."
From: Brainstruck | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:05:55 AM | Message Detail
I'm happy Riku's doing so well. Best part of KH ^_^
---
Today will always be remembered! How it's remembered is up to us. Let's make history!
- Vyse, Skies of Arcadia
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:14:12 AM | Message Detail
I started to feel last night that Sora/Alucard won't even be close now, and this only adds to that feeling.

Only wish I hadn't changed to Alucard after putting Sora at first.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:16:03 AM | Message Detail
I still suspect Alucard/Sora'll be close, though I've stuck with Sora the whole time.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:17:07 AM | Message Detail
Sora was my gut pick, but I made a lot of biased choices this time around.. including Alucard over him.
---
SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:32:55 AM | Message Detail
I never understood the appeal for Alucard > Sora and never will. We haven't seen a good value for Alucard since 2k3, while Sora majorly impressed last year. Not to mention Sora had a ton of bracket support IIRC, even though none of the Board picked him. Sora will have the bracket backing, and he had every reason to improve while Alucard had none. There were like 10 upsets more appealing then Alucard > Sora, I never doubted that match since day 1.

I'd classify that match up there with those that people only take out of bias.
---
I need to put something here.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:34:00 AM | Message Detail
If Riku is any indication, it seems that we may have underestimated Kingdom Hearts, for once.

Nice 500th post, by the way.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:34:59 AM | Message Detail
I thought it was weird at first, too. Then I played the games.

Meh. If I feel like messing around, being stealthy and killing guards, etc, I'll play MGS2. But if I want to sit down and play the game from start to finish and be entertained by the story, it'll be MGS or MGS3.

Tidus is not the protagonist in Kingdom Hearts.

He isn't the protagonist in Pokemon Ruby, either.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:36:42 AM | Message Detail
It should be noted that I was talking in terms of popularity on this site, not the big picture.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: jeevesthemole | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:36:43 AM | Message Detail
Actually, that 500th post was the most abysmal thing ever to appear. Well, to do with Magus.

Oh yes, Ansem says to DARKIFY YOUR DARK DARKNESS OF DARKNESSITY.
---
No, Kirby and Pac-Man are round characters. Cloud is just spiky. - BlackMageJawa
SC2K5 Score: 4/5 Today's pick: Frog
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:37:19 AM | Message Detail
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 7/24/2005 12:31:46 PM | Message Detail
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/24/2005 12:30:58 PM | Message Detail | #493
I'm not putting too much stock into the Spring Contest until we see a cross-generational contest. I don't like the fact that the strength of an entire generation of games depends on how one game held up against a game from another generation.

Spring 2004's Final Four gave us a tiny bit of insight into that.


You lost me... What would that insight be?
---
Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:38:21 AM | Message Detail
we may have underestimated Kingdom Hearts, for once

FOR ONCE? Are you kidding me?

Spring 2004: KH gets upset by Starcraft - but in the end, it's projected to get 45% on division 128 champion SSBM, which is incredible for a game that was expected to be mere fodder for Wind Waker.

Summer 2004: No ****ing comment.

Spring 2005: Yes, Ansem barely scraped by CATS... but no one but Ganondorf was stronger in that division. Take that as you will, but there was 80%+ talk in the air for Ganon/Ansem after the CATS match...

For once, yeah right.
---
SC2K5 status - Points: 004/005 - Matches: 04/05 - Rank: 07383/33793 - Today: Frog - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:39:10 AM | Message Detail
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/23/2005 1:50:22 PM | Message Detail
I'm calling it, Frog/Riku is gonna be a nail-biter tomorrow. Frog will win with a mere 51% of the vote.


Well, my quote may be half right soon enough. Not exactly a nail-biter though, unfortunately.
---
Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:39:36 AM | Message Detail
mnm: One of the biggest debates surrounding that contest were the generation wars and the comparison of divisions.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:39:42 AM | Message Detail
Heh, I'd say, for one thing, that nearly the entire 8-bit division is probably a bit overrated because Mario 3 might be the only game from that era that could actually stand up to another generation. Most of the others likely rely on franchise voting.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:40:58 AM | Message Detail
which is incredible for a game that was expected to be mere fodder for Wind Waker.

Whoever thought KH would be fodder for Wind Waker was insane.

And I say that with the utmost respect.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: jonthomson | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:41:15 AM | Message Detail
Yes, I have done better 500 posts :-)
---
Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:42:33 AM | Message Detail
Whoever thought KH would be fodder for Wind Waker was insane.

I thought Soul Calibur would be fodder for Metroid Prime.

>_>
---
SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:42:44 AM | Message Detail
Oops... I accidentally read Summer 2004 instead of Spring 2004.
---
Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:42:47 AM | Message Detail
Take that as you will, but there was 80%+ talk in the air for Ganon/Ansem after the CATS match...

But pre-contest? No. That "underestimation" of Ansem was more due to CATS than anything else.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:42:57 AM | Message Detail
Meh, I deserve to get Squall > Magus wrong for changing the match like 2 days before the lockdown. I've failed you, Squall. ;_;
---
I need to put something here.
From: Tjian | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:43:03 AM | Message Detail
I'd still take Yoshi over Riku.
---
Happiness is like peeing on yourself. Everyone can see it, but only you feel it's warmth.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:43:54 AM | Message Detail
I thought Soul Calibur would be fodder for Metroid Prime.

Me too!
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:44:24 AM | Message Detail
Hah, I thought Metroid Prime would be mere fodder for Kingdom Hearts.

And no, I'm not joking.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:45:08 AM | Message Detail
Riku's goin' wild with the percentages again; he's still goin' up now.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Tai | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:45:53 AM | Message Detail
2005-07-24 11:45:00 22834 25578 47.17% 52.83% 2744
2005-07-24 11:40:00 22576 25342 47.11% 52.89% 2766
2005-07-24 11:35:01 22343 25125 47.07% 52.93% 2782

We get bad signal. :-(
---
PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (202 Signs!)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:45:53 AM | Message Detail
He's going up in percentage so rapidly because Frog's lead is going down.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:46:56 AM | Message Detail
Just a few days away from the best and closest first round match (Vivi vs. Zelda).
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 4/5 points
Current Match Prediction: Riku vs. Frog
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:49:30 AM | Message Detail
Heh...man, I hope this finishes 52-48 or closer.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:52:33 AM | Message Detail
51%-49% victory...

For Riku!
---
Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:52:44 AM | Message Detail
Isn't this around the time Master Chief starting coming back on Frog?

Seriously, this is Frog's worst time of the day, if 2004 is any indication.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:52:57 AM | Message Detail
With all the madness that happened so far, I wouldn't be surprised if Vivi blew Zelda out, moved on to defeat Snake, Sora/Alucard, Bowser/Ryu/Tidus and lost a nailbiter to Samus/Mario, effectively ranking 2nd in the main bracket X-sts.
---
SC2K5 status - Points: 004/005 - Matches: 04/05 - Rank: 07383/33793 - Today: Frog - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:53:40 AM | Message Detail
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 2:52:44 PM | #045
Isn't this around the time Master Chief starting coming back on Frog?

Seriously, this is Frog's worst time of the day, if 2004 is any indication.


The MC match took place in September. At that time the day vote begins mid-afternoon. Frog isn't under any comeback threat whatsoever.
---
SC2K5 status - Points: 004/005 - Matches: 04/05 - Rank: 07383/33793 - Today: Frog - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:54:34 AM | Message Detail
I'm not talking comeback at all. I'm just asking if this is when it began.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:55:04 AM | Message Detail
Seriously, this is Frog's worst time of the day, if 2004 is any indication.

Frog is pathetic with the kiddie vote.

Which I still don't understand. A seventeen-year-old kid with a tiny wang or a pantless Frog?
---
SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:55:17 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, pretty much.
---
SC2K5 status - Points: 004/005 - Matches: 04/05 - Rank: 07383/33793 - Today: Frog - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
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