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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 165
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:41:01 AM | Message Detail
I find it hard to believe a character who is looking to bring Frog to around 55% and is, from what I recall, unplayable is going to match Sora in strength.

Devil's advocate here, but Cloud/Seph 2k2 and/or 2k3, anybody?

he never crushes his opponents and he never gets himself crushed either

That's gonna change next round.

Even with Tidus' full adjustment, Kirby is statistically favored. He doesn't have to be at that 24% in order for Kirby to take care of business.

Huh? Since when? Compare Tidus 2k3 and Kirby 2k# (pick your year), and Tidus takes it without question.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:43:12 AM | Message Detail
Huh? Since when? Compare Tidus 2k3 and Kirby 2k# (pick your year), and Tidus takes it without question.

And why are we so intent on using 2k3 Tidus? That particular Tidus would be expected to get 48.15% on a non adjusted Mega Man, and instead barely avoided being doubled.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:44:54 AM | Message Detail
Wow Riku's almost Squall level in the unadjusted.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:45:53 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and compare unadjusted Tidus 2k4 to Kirby 2k#, and Kirby wins.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:46:39 AM | Message Detail
When Tidus/Shadow was predicted within 1% of bein' exactly right (and that touch of inaccuracy went in Tdius's favor, mind you), I think that their 2k3 values were accurate. I'm not gonna buy them both legitimately and proportionately losing so much strength by the match against Mega Man.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:46:47 AM | Message Detail
Wow Riku's almost Squall level in the unadjusted.

Squall is rather underrated in my averages, because he had an extremely bad year in 2k2 and was behind SFF in 2k3.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:47:25 AM | Message Detail
2k4 Tidus through his match against Mega Man is definitely not accurate, and when he almost beats Bowser, we will know this as fact.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:48:03 AM | Message Detail
Oh, and compare unadjusted Tidus 2k4 to Kirby 2k#, and Kirby wins.

Compare Sora 2k3 to Jill 2k#, and Jill/Ryu wins too.

Under-performance.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:48:48 AM | Message Detail
2k4 Tidus through his match against Mega Man is definitely not accurate, and when he beats Bowser, we will know this as fact.

Fixed. =P
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:48:58 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:49:18 AM | Message Detail
... I cry.

I cry, I swear.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:49:30 AM | Message Detail
I'll piss away four points if it means Teedus can make the elite eight.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:50:36 AM | Message Detail
Heh, and I'd piss away four points if Bowser can make the Elite Eight. I've just got more confidence in Tidus.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:50:55 AM | Message Detail
When Tidus/Shadow was predicted within 1% of bein' exactly right (and that touch of inaccuracy went in Tdius's favor, mind you), I think that their 2k3 values were accurate. I'm not gonna buy them both legitimately and proportionately losing so much strength by the match against Mega Man.

1) Mega Man, Zero, Vercetti, and Knuckles all performed exactly to expectations until Mega Man "bombed" against Link, and yet people seem to have no problem ignoring that and saying that Mega Man shouldn't be adjusted.

2) Please explain why Tidus did so badly against Mega Man, to the tune of a 10-14% underperformance.

3) Don't tell me you would honestly pick Shadow over some of the people he's expected to beat. Bowser, Ryu, Aeris, Zelda, Squall...I don't buy it for a minute. Hell, he'd be expected to beat Snake if you take his 2k3 value and compare it to either of Snake's 2k4 values.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:51:26 AM | Message Detail
So basically, so long as Kirby and Ryu do not win, both of us will be extremely happen no matter what the outcome. God I love hedging my bets!

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:51:30 AM | Message Detail
Kingdom Hearts is definitely this generation's Final Fantasy VII. Forget FFX. Heaven forbid Sora actually starts to KICKS ASS in KH2 and be less mediocre...

We might have to start calling him Cloud Jr...

Heh, you wish. But for some reason, he is beginning to look more Cloud-like. o_O Is it just me or is his hair a little more spikier in KH2? He could actually pass as being Cloud's son. <_<
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:51:49 AM | Message Detail
And I'll be laughing at you all when Ryu upsets Bowser and beats Tidus cleanly.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:52:00 AM | Message Detail
I'm not buying it that Riku is so strong. I don't want to be throwing any make-believe factors out there, like The Frog Factor, but there is something fishy when characters face Frog.

Look at it, we all didn't think Liquid was so strong, and he wasn't as Sp2K5 showed. Chief = Frog was alright, but I also didn't think he was so close to Snake.

Then today, it seems that Riku is not far from him either? Yeah, I don't believe it. Then again, I wait until Samus to say anything more.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Riku vs. Frog - Bracket: Frog - Vote: Frog (4/5)
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:54:23 AM | Message Detail
Compare Sora 2k3 to Jill 2k#, and Jill/Ryu wins too.

Under-performance.


Oh, so Mega Man SFF'd Tidus now? And what fanbase do they share?
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:55:48 AM | Message Detail
If Frog keeps Samus under 60%, I will feel confident that there is just something screwy with Frog. If Samus whips Frog, well then, I will cry, but after I am done, I will just assume there is something screwy with Frog except when he faces Samus =)

And I do not even want to think how bad Samus is going to whip Frog during the day of the match...

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: voltch | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:55:51 AM | Message Detail
by looking at the vote totals who thinks our first 100k match will be between a nintendo and square midcarders so that we get no SFF bull and since both are pretty strong on their own
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Dranze | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:56:34 AM | Message Detail
They both have X!
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Bracket: Frog - Vote: Frog Points: 5/6
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:57:09 AM | Message Detail
Samus beating Frog will be the greatest injustice in any contest.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:57:35 AM | Message Detail
Tomorrow seems as good as any for the first 100k match of the contest.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/24/2005 9:59:30 AM | Message Detail
There are NO excuses for Tidus vs. Mega Man. No Mega Man pointing his blaster at his head, no bad pic, no SFF, no overwhelming bracket support. He just straight up bombed.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:01:07 AM | Message Detail
Problem is, it's a Sunday, and traffic is down rather heavily on weekends. Ganondorf/Yuna is probably where you should be looking at.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 004/005 - Matches: 04/05 - Rank: 07383/33793 - Today: Frog - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:02:49 AM | Message Detail
Ganon/Yuna won't break 100K. No one cares enough about Yuna... or Ganon for that matter. ;\

Auron/Big Boss though, now there's a potential 100K-er.

>_>
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:03:31 AM | Message Detail
1) Mega Man, Zero, Vercetti, and Knuckles all performed exactly to expectations until Mega Man "bombed" against Link, and yet people seem to have no problem ignoring that and saying that Mega Man shouldn't be adjusted.

I have no problem with Mega Man being adjusted a lil'. Just not near as much as he got by goin' back to 2k3 levels.


2) Please explain why Tidus did so badly against Mega Man, to the tune of a 10-14% underperformance.

That, I don't know. I'm not gonna lie, it doesn't make sense, but I severely don't trust it.


3) Don't tell me you would honestly pick Shadow over some of the people he's expected to beat. Bowser, Ryu, Aeris, Zelda, Squall...I don't buy it for a minute. Hell, he'd be expected to beat Snake if you take his 2k3 value and compare it to either of Snake's 2k4 values.

I'd take Shadow over Zelda and probably Ryu, yes, and Shadow'd make the rest sweat. What's the problem thinkin' Shadow has a chance against Solid 2k4 when Shadow got 44.9% on Mario and Mario (2k4, who has been suspected to DROP since 2k3) would only allow an ADJUSTED Solid 2k4 to get 44.32% head-to-head?


Oh, so Mega Man SFF'd Tidus now? And what fanbase do they share?

Note that I didn't call it SFF, though it's about the same thing. Again, I don't know; my logic is that, as far as comparing it to other strengths, Mega Man/Tidus needs to be thrown out the window. That faith's controversial, I know, but I'm fine with it. Tidus's other performances are fine (except maybe him VS Claire, heh), so I'm not gonna hold that one against him when he did better than expected against Shadow the match before.


There are NO excuses for Tidus vs. Mega Man. No Mega Man pointing his blaster at his head, no bad pic, no SFF, no overwhelming bracket support. He just straight up bombed.

I agree, he definitely bombed for whatever reason. I'm just saying that I'm not goin' to hold that match against him because most/all of his other showings have been much better.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Brainstruck | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:04:26 AM | Message Detail
Hmm... Frog bombing not only makes Bowser over Snake look a lot better, but Sonic over Mega Man too...
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Today will always be remembered! How it's remembered is up to us. Let's make history!
- Vyse, Skies of Arcadia
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:04:50 AM | Message Detail
Ganon/Tudus brought in super mega votes, so I feel fairly confident that tomorrow we will be seeing a doubling with a vote total slightly eclipsing 100k.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: voltch | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:05:44 AM | Message Detail
anyone think that since BB's match is right before snake's it might help him a bit
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:06:32 AM | Message Detail
Uber limb jumping prediction: If CJayC follows the usual picture routine, Sora will defeat Solid **** in the division finals.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:06:46 AM | Message Detail
I really doubt there'll be a doubling tomorrow, though Ganon will definitely dominate.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:06:52 AM | Message Detail
What's the problem thinkin' Shadow has a chance against Solid 2k4 when Shadow got 44.9% on Mario and Mario (2k4, who has been suspected to DROP since 2k3) would only allow an ADJUSTED Solid 2k4 to get 44.32% head-to-head?

The problem? Because Tidus and Snake have a common opponent, and one of them did significantly better and the one that did worse was the one that beat Shadow. I'm much more willing to throw out Shadow's 45% on Mario than Tidus' 34% on Mega Man. At least I can come up with something for Mario/Shadow, even if it isn't particularly good.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:07:36 AM | Message Detail
Uber limb jumping prediction: If CJayC follows the usual picture routine, Sora will defeat Solid **** in the division finals.

Another sexy uber-limb.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: voltch | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:09:40 AM | Message Detail
well looks like riku won't be putting frog under 53%
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Buzzup | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:11:43 AM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of a moderator or administrator]
From: kinsho3 | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:12:19 AM | Message Detail
A doubling? Expect at least 70% by Ganondorf. Final Fantasy X-2, if anything, should have increased dislike for Yuna. Factor in Nintendo characters possibly gaining in strength and you have a comfortable 70+%.
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:14:01 AM | Message Detail
Ganondorf should double Yuna but I just can't see him doing it for whatever reason.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:14:44 AM | Message Detail
The problem? Because Tidus and Snake have a common opponent, and one of them did significantly better and the one that did worse was the one that beat Shadow. I'm much more willing to throw out Shadow's 45% on Mario than Tidus' 34% on Mega Man. At least I can come up with something for Mario/Shadow, even if it isn't particularly good.

Understandable enough, but Shadow's put Wario in a very believable position in the 2k3 stats and came very close to Tidus's expectations, not to mention what I already said about Mario/Solid. Tidus, up until Mega/Tidus, was heavily believed to be the third strongest FF character in the contest, and most/all of his matches led to that being true (or at least believable; I know I stuck with Aeris on that, heh). One match, even if it's unexplainable, isn't goin' to keep me from believing it's such a huge anomoly that'd affect Tidus and Shadow (and Wario, too) so much.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: voltch | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:17:03 AM | Message Detail
ganon will come close to doubling yuna but won't. thats what i'm thinking at the moment
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:18:32 AM | Message Detail
Ganon will get between 62 and 66%.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:18:50 AM | Message Detail
This match is so awesome.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: TheGreatMaster | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:19:48 AM | Message Detail
I love this contest.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:20:12 AM | Message Detail
Ganon will get between 62 and 66%.

Sounds perfect to me.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: voltch | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:23:40 AM | Message Detail
it's funny isn't it that at this rate this will be the biggest victory of frogs career. and a win that might even be above 51%
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:24:45 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, funny.

Oh well, at least I can take solace in the fact that Frog totally mopped up the board vote. I love you guys.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 004/005 - Matches: 04/05 - Rank: 07383/33793 - Today: Frog - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:25:34 AM | Message Detail
it's funny isn't it that at this rate this will be the biggest victory of frogs career. and a win that might even be above 51%

It's not funny at all. Please bury your head in your monitor and stick your foot in your loins.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:28:13 AM | Message Detail
Slowflake, can you do us a favor and call the match in favor of Frog? <_<
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I need to put something here.
From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:29:16 AM | Message Detail
Hell ****ing no, I want Frog to win, not to get lemon prizes by the ton.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 004/005 - Matches: 04/05 - Rank: 07383/33793 - Today: Frog - Tomorrow: Ganondorf
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