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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 165
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:48:27 AM | Message Detail
If Riku breaks 43.5% on Frog then we know something is wrong with either Snake vs. Frog or the whole 20XX division.

2004 called. They want their obvious back.


Let's sound the alarm.

Riku 43.59% 5378
Frog 56.41% 6960
TOTAL VOTES 12338

And Riku's climbing rather quickly, I might add. Hello, morning vote.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 3:51:01 AM | Message Detail
Can't believe so many people were quick to take KOS-MOS over Riku last night...

Still, don't rule out the possibility that Riku IS stronger than Sora. Still, you figure if he is that strong, it shouldn't take him 3 years to make his debut. This isn't like FFVII, with loads of competition to get in. There's Sora, and...that's it.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:07:16 AM | Message Detail
Riku 44.01% 5720
Frog 55.99% 7278
TOTAL VOTES 12998

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A E I OWN U
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:09:59 AM | Message Detail
I gotta say, this has me worried about Alucard/Sora... and that's if Alucard gets pass Kratos.

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A E I OWN U
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:11:36 AM | Message Detail
Heck, forget %.

Frog hasn't increased his lead at all in an hour and the classic swing of morning vote generally hasn't even really kicked in in the past matches until after 8 AM Eastern.

He has a possible chance to actually lose.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:12:11 AM | Message Detail
Kratos would have to be stronger than Dante, Sora, Vivi, etc. in order to beat Alucard. Now, his one game may be popular, but not that popular.

And I think he'll be beating Sora with more than the 51% he's projected to win by.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:13:03 AM | Message Detail
Riku 44.19% 5842
Frog 55.81% 7377
TOTAL VOTES 13219

Riku is starting to increase at a rapid rate.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:15:14 AM | Message Detail
So, is Vincent > Magus possible?

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A E I OWN U
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:19:19 AM | Message Detail
So, is Vincent > Magus possible?

Possible, yes. Likely? No.

That probably didnt help at all...
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:21:37 AM | Message Detail
How do things turn out if you adjust Frog's division to 2003 Master Chief?

Just wondering.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:25:54 AM | Message Detail
I always thought it was a remotely distant possibility that Riku could be stronger than Sora, but I never thought it would actually happen....
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:28:02 AM | Message Detail
I don't think it even has happened. I find it far more likely that Frog should be at his unadjusted value, putting Riku close to Sora, but not equal to or above him.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: cavedog0 | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:28:18 AM | Message Detail
Frog hasn't increased his lead at all in an hour and the classic swing of morning vote generally hasn't even really kicked in in the past matches until after 8 AM Eastern.

He has a possible chance to actually lose.


Well, this is to be expected. We're in the end of the 2 hour strech with very little votes, heck it happened with Ness/CJ. CJ kept the lead to 550/600 for about two hours...

Then Ness blew it open, wouldn't be surprized if the same thing happened here...
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:28:43 AM | Message Detail
Looks like Riku finally hit a wall.








...and then watch Riku start gaining again after I post this.

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A E I OWN U
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:29:53 AM | Message Detail
Yeah. The thing is that it can go to either person. Frog has never been remarkable in the day. Riku could get that advantage. In fact, most people expect just that.

But if Frog can get it, that's just great.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:29:55 AM | Message Detail
And by gaining I mean percentage wise.

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A E I OWN U
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:30:14 AM | Message Detail
I don't think this makes Sora look stronger, I have always believe in that Megaman is weaker than what the X stats says. First Zero and now Frog makes it look more possible than what I first thought. However if Yuna gets more percent on Ganondorf than Alucard, then I will begin to worry.


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My biggest predictions: Mario over Samus, Alucard over Sora, Magus over Dante.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:31:01 AM | Message Detail
I'm pretty sure no one brought it up earlier, and I'll need some clarification on something here in a minute. But Kingdom Hearts: Chain of Memories was released in between our last two contests and sold very well with 776,000 in America.

Now, what I'm wondering, since I haven't played it, is if Riku is in it at all for those who have? And would anyone think that could possibly be helping Riku and Sora in the future match against Alucard?

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:31:50 AM | Message Detail
Oh goodie, tomorrow's match will tell us if the Villain Contest actually meant something.

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A E I OWN U
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:33:13 AM | Message Detail
I believe Riku is in CoM, Dark Riku.

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A E I OWN U
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:34:07 AM | Message Detail
According to the 2003 stats, Ganon's projected to beat Yuna with 66% of the vote. There are some things to consider though. First off, you have the fact that Yuna has since appeared in FFX-2 as the main character -- it's sales were 1.3 million, about a million less than FFX, in America. The other thing to think about is Ganon's potential increase from the Spring Contest. So those could even out, favor Yuna, or favor Ganon enough to change that 66% outcome.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:35:48 AM | Message Detail
http://www.kh2.co.uk/assets/rr1.gif

Teedus in KH2?

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A E I OWN U
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:39:18 AM | Message Detail
Oh, I dont' mean he is stronger than Sora, but so far this match shows it to be a possibility. And as for CoM, having played it, Riku is very much a part of the game.


Also, *SPOILER* (it's sort of in the manual)*
After you beat the game with Sora, you unlock a second quest that you play exclusively as Riku. so there's that too.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: jonthomson | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:43:24 AM | Message Detail
Hmm. Frog is quite the enigma it seems. Every match seems to be close and his contest strength or lack of is hard to gauge. I really don't know whether the Samus match will be a random close-ish match or whether it'll be a 70%+ drubbing. I just can't tell.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:45:07 AM | Message Detail
Frog actually increased his % in the first time in a friggin hour.
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:47:55 AM | Message Detail
Still dropping.

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A E I OWN U
From: Zylo the wolf | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:52:27 AM | Message Detail
I wonder how many will get this match correct, my guess is 52%
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My biggest predictions: Mario over Samus, Alucard over Sora, Magus over Dante.
From: transience | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:52:43 AM | Message Detail
gah. I hate to say this, but is it possible Frog has a ceiling? it seems like he can manage 45-55% of the vote but never anything more. maybe his appeal comes from people who will vote anything Chrono Trigger? if that's so, it'll be interesting to see if he "overperforms" on Samus.

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From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:53:52 AM | Message Detail
I'm betting under 50% get this right. Riku is the higher seed and Frog got crap bracket support last year. He most likely will again.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:54:39 AM | Message Detail
I really wouldn't expect any sort of close match against Samus. That match should give you an idea of where he stands in strength.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: FastFalcon05 | Posted: 7/24/2005 4:56:51 AM | Message Detail
GO RIKU!!!
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:01:02 AM | Message Detail
I can only imagine how strong Sora will be after KH2 is released.

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A E I OWN U
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:03:33 AM | Message Detail
At the 5:00 mark, here's how the vote totals are looking.

Ness/CJ - 15,859
Riku/Frog - 14,991

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:05:13 AM | Message Detail
Beginning hours of the day vote.

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A E I OWN U
From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:16:54 AM | Message Detail
http://www.gamefaqs.com/features/recognition/300.html

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A E I OWN U
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:32:14 AM | Message Detail
Riku 45% 7362
Frog 55% 8999
TOTAL VOTES 16361

And I so top CJayC in reviews, ignoring the fact that he hasn't submitted any. Heh.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: DarkLink89 | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:33:04 AM | Message Detail
Riku 45% 7363
Frog 55% 9000
TOTAL VOTES 16363
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"For the next 15 years, just like the last 15, handheld gaming will be known by one name: Nintendo" - Reggie Fils-Aime
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:33:27 AM | Message Detail
I still can't believe a poll with NESS is our top vote getter.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:35:12 AM | Message Detail
It's only by a few hundred votes, but yeah, it's the top so far.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:38:33 AM | Message Detail
NESS WINS THE CONTEST! </Ulti>
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
From: voltch | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:53:32 AM | Message Detail
is anyone starting to be a hint nervous about riku's gains? i'm still confident frog will win but i hate it when he always gives up a big lead and turns it into a close match
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 7/24/2005 5:56:50 AM | Message Detail
If Riku could pull this off, it would be one of the greatest come backs ever.

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Smurf , the cream of sonic fanboyism
Currently Playing: Baten Kaitos, Burnout 3, Fire Emblem, Loz:Minish Cap.
From: Lieutenant Kettch | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:09:03 AM | Message Detail
It's not looking good for Riku winning. He's picking up percentage, but not any votes. It'll take a really big afternoon surge to win.
From: DarkLink89 | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:11:55 AM | Message Detail
Riku 45.43% 8324
Frog 54.57% 10000
TOTAL VOTES 18324
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"For the next 15 years, just like the last 15, handheld gaming will be known by one name: Nintendo" - Reggie Fils-Aime
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:12:11 AM | Message Detail
Does this mean that Liquid's number was correct?
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:12:47 AM | Message Detail
Frog's looking to have a 2000 vote lead soon. If Riku doesn't start actually gaining in votes his upset chances are going to be zero.
From: Starion | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:17:19 AM | Message Detail
Well, he kind of does in a few updates but Frog always gets it back in the next two updates or so. Still, it does help Riku slash that Frog%.
From: Smurf87 | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:20:54 AM | Message Detail
And they've been drawing level for a while now.

This is making my upset pick of Knuckles over Magus look a lot more attractive now!
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Smurf , the cream of sonic fanboyism
Currently Playing: Baten Kaitos, Burnout 3, Fire Emblem, Loz:Minish Cap.
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:23:47 AM | Message Detail
Why does Frog sucking make Knuckles over Magus look better?
From: The n00b Avenger | Posted: 7/24/2005 6:24:30 AM | Message Detail
Magus and Frog are from the same game, lol. Crono isn't going to make the finals!
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Xbox fanboys are only slighty behidn the FF ones on this site.... - zidane15
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