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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 165
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:41:09 AM | Message Detail
So for me it is a foregone conclusion that Riku will have the majority of the brackets behind him. Anyone else?

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: cyko | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:43:54 AM | Message Detail
y'know, a few people did mention that Kingdom Hearts:CofM provided more exposure for Sora and Riku, but i haven't seen anyone point out that CofM was released to an entirely new audience on the GBA. that's a lot of potential for introducing the characters to a whole new demograph and people that may not have played the original game. it may or may not have provided a significant boost for Sora and Riku, but the potential is certainly there for them to pick up plenty of new fans and i find it likely that it did.

that's the main reason why i picked Sora over Alucard, regardless of who the x-stats favored. and in all honesty, had we not seen Frog perform well last year (if he was new this year, also), i would have picked Riku over him without much hesitation. probably would have cost me a point, though, heh, so it's a good thing we had some data on Frog. >_>

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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:44:01 AM | Message Detail
I think Frog'll have 52% of the brackets, myself.
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From: cyko | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:45:19 AM | Message Detail
after Frog's lack of support last year, despite being the HEAVY board favorite AND the higher seed, i seriously doubt he will carry 50% of the brackets. i predict about 46%.

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From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:48:30 AM | Message Detail
Yeah, the selling point for me is that he is the underdog from a seeding perspective. I mean, Lloyd barely carried the bracket support with a (2) seed. I highly doubt Frog will be carrying the bracket support from the (5).

I say Frog will not crack the 44% that he had supporting him last year.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: JonPen1416 | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:49:09 AM | Message Detail
About CoM, the reason I feel it's gonna increase Sora/Riku's strength is because Sora is actually sorta likable in it. I don't think it adds a whole, large new demographic because most of the people who played it played the original, but a lot of people who played the original like it but think Sora sucks. Sora pretty much sucks in Kingdom Hearts, he's lame as can be. But in CoM he just seems a lot more likable. And I doubt I'm the only one who feels that way. Actually, I feel the same way about Riku too. He definitely feels like a better, more likable character in CoM. And Spoilers


the mode where you play as him is sure to help.
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From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:50:48 AM | Message Detail
Right, but he was in a four-pack of pretty mainstream characters too: Liquid Snake (who he had 44% against), Master Chief (who he had 23% against), and Crash. He had great matches against both Liquid and MC, then put up a very nice battle against Solid Snake...now, if I were to guess, Frog has one of the most memorial runs in contest history and did it at the expense of well-known characters. I don't think he'll be under-rated in the brackets again, though I don't see either gettin' more than 53% of the brackets.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/24/2005 10:58:24 AM | Message Detail
Riku seems poised to pass 47% sometime soon... I am interested to see when Frog begins his percentage pushback, and how high he can get it.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:07:51 AM | Message Detail
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 1:44:01 PM | Message Detail | #093
I think Frog'll have 52% of the brackets, myself.


I'm inclined to agree.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:11:39 AM | Message Detail
Riku 47% 21265
Frog 53% 23984
TOTAL VOTES 45249

Score.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:11:50 AM | Message Detail
2) Please explain why Tidus did so badly against Mega Man, to the tune of a 10-14% underperformance.

Not everything that happens in this contest makes sense. The WDF, for example, and potentially why MGS performs worse than it should against Final Fantasy VII. I really have a hard time believing that Liquid is quite as weak as the Spring Contest really made him look, and I know many have difficulty accepting MGS2 > MGS in the Spring Contest.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:11:53 AM | Message Detail
Riku 47% 21265
Frog 53% 23984
TOTAL VOTES 45249
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:11:53 AM | Message Detail
Riku 47% 21265
Frog 53% 23984
TOTAL VOTES 45249

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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:12:19 AM | Message Detail
Heh.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: Janus5000 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:12:26 AM | Message Detail
^5s Tediz IMHO
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :
From: Acronym | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:12:32 AM | Message Detail
Oooooh.
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Fedor > Mirko. But then, Couture > Liddell.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:12:44 AM | Message Detail
As someone mentioned earlier, it would've been hilarious if Riku had drawn someone like Yoshi. And people thought Ness/CJ was bad...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:14:09 AM | Message Detail
With the way this is going, Riku might actually win a few updates in a few hours when Frog really starts sucking.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: Heroic Viktor | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:14:12 AM | Message Detail
This board would never recover from the epic proportions of a Riku over Yoshi match.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
SC2k5 - 5/5 (empty slots in brackets suck)
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:14:35 AM | Message Detail
YOSHI STILL BEATS RIKU CUZ OF rSFF!!!!1

Heh, in all seriousness though, Riku probably would have beaten Yoshi...and THAT is scary. I'm glad that didn't happen.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:15:47 AM | Message Detail
I know many have difficulty accepting MGS2 > MGS in the Spring Contest.

I thought it was weird at first, too. Then I played the games.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:17:17 AM | Message Detail
Yoshi may be underrated himself if Bowser vs. Sephiroth is any indication....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:17:44 AM | Message Detail
I thought it was weird at first, too. Then I played the games.

Well, I still don't think most people share your feeling of MGS2 being better. I could be wrong, but it does seem kind of out of place.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:18:14 AM | Message Detail
Not everything that happens in this contest makes sense. The WDF, for example, and potentially why MGS performs worse than it should against Final Fantasy VII. I really have a hard time believing that Liquid is quite as weak as the Spring Contest really made him look, and I know many have difficulty accepting MGS2 > MGS in the Spring Contest.

The WDF is 4% underperformance, and there is a alternate explanation that I tend to like better. As far as Liquid goes, if Mega Man shouldn't be adjusted then 2k3 Tidus' underperformance on Mega Man is worse than Liquid's underperformance on Sephiroth, with absolutely no reason at all.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:19:11 AM | Message Detail
Yoshi may be underrated himself if Bowser vs. Sephiroth is any indication....

I doubt that has anything to do with SFF in 2003 as it does with Bowser getting stronger (if the Spring Contest means anything anyway). Ryo Hazuki seems to indicate that he is where he ought to be.

Yes, I'm placing confidence in supposedly "erratic" fodder.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:19:13 AM | Message Detail
MGS and MGS2 are both in my top ten games, but MGS > MGS2. For what it's worth though, both the Game Contest and Ulti's RATE THE GAME topics show MGS2 > MGS.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: lettuce Kefka | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:19:21 AM | Message Detail
What's "WDF"?
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From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:19:27 AM | Message Detail
Well, I still don't think most people share your feeling of MGS2 being better.

Ulti's "Rate the Game" topic? Reviewers? PS2 being much more popular than PSX?

Also, I don't know why this hasn't been mentioned, but Squall > Magus looks that much better after Frog bombing.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:21:03 AM | Message Detail
Squall > Magus being based on my totally baseless theory that New-Square > Old-Square in a head-to-head poll.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:21:12 AM | Message Detail
Yes, I'm placing confidence in supposedly "erratic" fodder.

Supposedly? Ryo dropped 4.5% between 2k2 and 2k3, and that's with Crono's cheat votes taken out of his total.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:21:13 AM | Message Detail
As far as Liquid goes, if Mega Man shouldn't be adjusted then 2k3 Tidus' underperformance on Mega Man is worse than Liquid's underperformance on Sephiroth, with absolutely no reason at all.

The only reason we can even hint at potential FFVII/MGS "SFF" is because we've seen two instances. If only one of them had occurred, we'd have no reason to believe it, other than the fact that it seems out of place, as does Tidus's 2004 number. Yes, Mega Man overperforming that much makes no sense whatsoever, but neither does Tidus and Shadow taking huge proportional drops.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:22:20 AM | Message Detail
Ulti's "Rate the Game" topic?

This board's tastes =/= This site's tastes

We've seen that proven many times.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:22:46 AM | Message Detail
Ryo dropped 4.5% between 2k2 and 2k3, and that's with Crono's cheat votes taken out of his total.

And from 2003 to 2004?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:23:02 AM | Message Detail
Yes, Mega Man overperforming that much makes no sense whatsoever, but neither does Tidus and Shadow taking huge proportional drops.

Yes, Link overperforming makes little sense, but neither does Mega Man, Snake, Zero, Knuckles, and Vercetti taking mostly proportional drops.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:23:35 AM | Message Detail
And from 2003 to 2004?

He gained 2% back, if I have my way.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:26:55 AM | Message Detail
Yes, Link overperforming makes little sense, but neither does Mega Man, Snake, Zero, Knuckles, and Vercetti taking mostly proportional drops.

More and more proof is being built against 20XXF, too; you can't say the same about Mega Man over-performing yet.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:28:08 AM | Message Detail
A while ago someone mentioned an SFF theory that invovled Final Fantasy VII and other PS1 games, and many people seemed to think it was plausible. If that were the case, Metal Gear Solid may in fact be stronger than Metal Gear Solid 2.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:28:31 AM | Message Detail
More and more proof is being built against 20XXF, too; you can't say the same about Mega Man over-performing yet.

Probably because the only character that it affects is Tidus, and we won't know where he stands until his match with Kirby.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:28:31 AM | Message Detail
Care to comment on Squall > Magus? >_>
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:29:08 AM | Message Detail
I thought it was weird at first, too. Then I played the games.

I ****ing love you.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:29:47 AM | Message Detail
Honestly, I'd be more inclined to trust what actually lined up (Tidus/Shadow) than what didn't (Tidus/Mega Man). Maybe Tidus isn't fully at his 2003 number, but unless FFX-2 had a negative effect (if Ganondorf triples Yuna, then we'll talk), I don't see why he should drop that much. He's the protagonist of the most popular RPG of this generation. It doesn't register for me.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:30:12 AM | Message Detail
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 12:28:31 PM | Message Detail | #489
Care to comment on Squall > Magus? >_>


It's very possible, and to tell you the pure truth, it'll probably happen.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:30:58 AM | Message Detail
I'm not putting too much stock into the Spring Contest until we see a cross-generational contest. I don't like the fact that the strength of an entire generation of games depends on how one game held up against a game from another generation.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:31:05 AM | Message Detail
the most popular RPG of this generation

Tidus is not the protagonist in Kingdom Hearts.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:31:31 AM | Message Detail
Final Fantasy X would whip KH head-to-head in a match, and you know it.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: jeevesthemole | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:31:45 AM | Message Detail
DARK DARKNESS
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No, Kirby and Pac-Man are round characters. Cloud is just spiky. - BlackMageJawa
SC2K5 Score: 4/5 Today's pick: Frog
From: UItimaterializer | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:31:46 AM | Message Detail
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/24/2005 12:30:58 PM | Message Detail | #493
I'm not putting too much stock into the Spring Contest until we see a cross-generational contest. I don't like the fact that the strength of an entire generation of games depends on how one game held up against a game from another generation.


Spring 2004's Final Four gave us a tiny bit of insight into that.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:31:49 AM | Message Detail
Comment on Squall > Magus?

Knuckles >>>>>>>>>>>>> Squall > Magus
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Shadowdude II | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:31:52 AM | Message Detail
Tidus is not the protagonist in Kingdom Hearts.

Beaten to the punch. =(

Though, FFX > KH on this site.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu
From: jonthomson | Posted: 7/24/2005 11:31:58 AM | Message Detail
Squall>Magus
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN
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