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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 164
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:20:26 PM | Message Detail
It was Pedro's doing.

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Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:21:19 PM | Message Detail
Then there's no way Frog doubles him...

before SFF


Minimal, at best. They're two generations apart.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:23:38 PM | Message Detail
As for my prediction.

Frog: 61.13
Riku: 38.87

---
Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:24:32 PM | Message Detail
I'm expecting 62% in Frog's favor.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 4/5 points
Current Match Prediction: Riku vs. Frog
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:25:02 PM | Message Detail
I just have a strange feeling that Riku is gonna surprise us a bit. Not sure if it's by being more competitive than he should or by sucking it up beyond measure, but I don't think it'll be the simple 60/40 match most are expecting...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:26:19 PM | Message Detail
Is the Spring BOP still up anywhere?

or did Slow take it down.
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:26:46 PM | Message Detail
I just have a strange feeling that Riku is gonna surprise us a bit.

Alot of people are getting that particular feeling.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Samus vs. Yuri - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (3/4)
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:27:57 PM | Message Detail
Alot of people are getting that particular feeling.

I know I'm not...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:28:54 PM | Message Detail
Alot of people are getting that particular feeling.

No, you know what that is. ^.~

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Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:30:03 PM | Message Detail
In other news, Yuri is starting to cut into Samus' %. He's getting close to 10k votes, too.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:31:21 PM | Message Detail
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO</pedro>

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Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:31:48 PM | Message Detail
RPGuy, where's Yuri now on the all time stats if he keeps his percentage?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 4/5 points
Current Match Prediction: Riku vs. Frog
From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:32:59 PM | Message Detail
http://noooooooforpedro.ytmnd.com/

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:36:38 PM | Message Detail
Currently, just under Tom Nook, but he's been recovering % for the last half hour. I think he'll end up at least pushing Samus back under 87%, which still only gets him up to Pyramid Head.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:39:22 PM | Message Detail
Best. Ytmnd. Ever.

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Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:40:48 PM | Message Detail
So do you think Samus will break 70k or Yuri will break 10k first?
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)
From: Rodri316 | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:41:30 PM | Message Detail
Yuri will break 10000 first.
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Summer 2005 Contest -- Current Score: 3/4
Today's Prediction -- Samus Aran vs. Yuri Hyuga
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:42:47 PM | Message Detail
What does DK have in his corner that Magus didn't? Nothing.

As I've said afew times, Magus would have had more in his corner than DK, what with there now being THREE SC games when DK faces Fisher as opposed to the ONE SC game when Magus faced Fisher.


Man, I'm tired of being right.

Then, quickly, declare Conker as the upcoming 2k5 champion. It'll revitalize you.


Oh, and Mario/Joanna had almost 8,000 more votes than this match does right now at this point. I blame Yuri!

Both Yuri AND there being a side-poll today, heh.


I can't wait until she exposes Frog in the second round.

Between her gaining ground and Frog likely bein' a lil' over-rated, Frog WILL be hurting.


Somehow seeing Tanner at the bottom of that list always brings a smile to my face..

Obviously; every warm-blooded human can get a smile out of that.


I mean for goodness sake's—he's the friggin' Grim Reaper. That's bound to get him a fair number of votes.

Which reminds me; Greg from Conker's Bad Fur Day really deserves an appearance. *awaits Tediz to back me up*


Then there's no way Frog doubles him...

Lemme do a lil' research here about how strong Riku would be if Frog WAS to double Riku, as far as ceilings and floors go:

--If Frog's strength is accurate with 20XXF adjustments and Frog/Solid is 100% accurate, then Riku gets 19.97% on Link 2k4 (between VJ and Jill).
--If Frog's strength is accurate with unadjusted stats and the Frog/Solid pic let Frog get 1.5% more than he actually should have (almost double of what Ryu Hayabusa's expected to have gained from his ninja pic, for those wondering why I picked that)...that makes Frog get 26.14% on Link 2k4, then Riku gets 17.42% (between Crash and SFF'd-through-Auron Jak).
--If Frog's strength is more accurate based off of Liquid/Frog and Liquid showed his true strength in the Spring Contest (assuming Sephiroth 2k4 = 2k5)...that makes Frog be at 20.42% on Link 2k4, then Riku gets 13.61% (between Gordon and Lara).

Now, I don't have the highest expactations in the world for Riku...but he could beat Jill, I think. Thinking Riku wouldn't get doubled is risky thinkin', if you ask me.


Then there's no way Frog doubles him...
before SFF


I would think SFF would be minimal, though possible. Aeris DID destroy Sora...but Frog's another generation further away than Aeris and I would think Riku appealed more to his fanbase than Frog did to his fanbase. Just a guess on that part though.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:46:02 PM | Message Detail
Oh, and Mario/Joanna had almost 8,000 more votes than this match does right now at this point. I blame Yuri!

Both Yuri AND there being a side-poll today, heh.


Now the match is over 13,000 votes behind Mario/Joanna

Hell, this poll is about 500 behind Lloyd/Wesker.

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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Samus vs. Yuri - Bracket: Samus - Vote: Samus (3/4)
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:46:05 PM | Message Detail
Thinking Riku wouldn't get doubled is risky thinkin', if you ask me.

I think he could be pretty close to Sora. I don't see him getting doubled by him pre-SFF.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:47:24 PM | Message Detail
From: charmander6000 | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:40:48 PM | Message Detail
So do you think Samus will break 70k or Yuri will break 10k first?


Considering Yuri's just a few hundred votes from breaking 10k, I'll say Yuri will break 10k first.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 4/5 points
Current Match Prediction: Riku vs. Frog
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:47:35 PM | Message Detail
I don't see him being close to Sora at all, personally.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:48:07 PM | Message Detail
I think the vote totals will be settling down to around 85k-90k for the duration of the first round, (except maybe for Kerrigan/Vincent) and will come back up when the tough to call matches of the next round start to kick in. I feel the first to matches just had those high totals cause everyone was hyped for the start of the contest, but now everyone's settling down. Though its just speculation.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:51:23 PM | Message Detail
I don't know the fanbase well enough to say...but I don't trust Riku being all that close to Sora. Again, I'd take Riku over Jill, but I don't think I'd go much higher than that.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:51:36 PM | Message Detail
I don't see him being close to Sora at all, personally.

Why not? This isn't Ansem we're talking about. Riku is very popular with the fanbase, and he's in your face from start to finish.

Hmmm...Looks like people might be underestimating Kingdom Hearts for a change.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:56:00 PM | Message Detail
I also don't think there's gonna be alot of SFF. Some, eh, sure, it's possible...but if you expect Frog to SFF Riku, you've gotta be more open to Magus SFF'ing Squall. Granted, Squall > Riku and has been in both FF8 and KH, but Magus > Frog and Squall is one generation closer to Chrono Trigger than Kingdom Hearts is. If Frog managed to SFF Riku, then new-Square DOESN'T have the built-in ability to at least resist SFF (and maybe give rSFF), thus hurting those who picked Squall over Magus.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/23/2005 7:58:37 PM | Message Detail
This is Chrono Trigger facing Kingdom Hearts, not Final Fantasy. The fanbase overlap isn't quite as large as the one between FF and KH, I would say.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:00:40 PM | Message Detail
The fanbase overlap isn't quite as large as the one between FF and KH, I would say.

Then what about the 2k3 contest? All the Square characters got a boost from KH (those who were in it I mean).
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Summer 2005 Contest - 4/5 points
Current Match Prediction: Riku vs. Frog
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:01:22 PM | Message Detail
Why not? This isn't Ansem we're talking about. Riku is very popular with the fanbase,

I never said he'd be pure fodder like Ansem either. But I really don't expect him to be near to Sora or even begin to make a match of this. I would put him around that high-end fodder area more than anything. I wouldn't even begin to think he's going to strong. The only way this match is close is if Frog's adjusted value is incorrect, which I wouldn't doubt for a second.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:02:46 PM | Message Detail
On a completely different note, if The Prince of Persia were to ever get into one of these shabangalangs, would you speculate him being at about the level of Kratos (GoW)? I know we have 0 data on him, but just from a speculated popularity standpoint.

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Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:03:15 PM | Message Detail
Then what about the 2k3 contest? All the Square characters got a boost from KH (those who were in it I mean).

Yeah, what about it? Chrono Trigger didn't benefit from that though.

And why would Riku be weak? Because he's not Sora? You really think NOBODY from Kingdom Hearts would score 33% on Sora before SFF? I think you're underestimating how much the KH fanbase likes him.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:04:08 PM | Message Detail
I think he would definitely be above Kratos (GoW). He's had two popular, high-selling games and a third one on the way while Kratos has had one high rated game and the sales were around 400,000 on the last check, I believe.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:05:39 PM | Message Detail
I'll give you that just because CT and KH fans share alot of fanbase with FF doesn't mean CT and KH will share an equal amount with each other, but I would still think this would be irrelevant if Frog managed to SFF Riku; if they share less of a fanbase and a character from two generations ago managed to SFF a character from this generation, that makes Magus at least being resistant to new-Square rSFF against Squall and Vincent look more likely.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:05:43 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:06:15 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:07:04 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I know. Hence why I deleted that post.

So, I'll post this part again:

And I expect a 62-38% match in Frog's favor. Riku isn't fodder like Ansem, but he won't be that strong either.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 4/5 points
Current Match Prediction: Riku vs. Frog
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:09:53 PM | Message Detail
Hmm, now I'm even more excited about Kratos' upcoming match against Alucard, I'm just hoping he can make it a 45-55 affair, though that's more of my hope, because I would like to have non-stop sex with The Prince if you couldn't tell already. Plus Kratos is already one of my favorite characters of all time, despite his brooding, but then again, that never stopped me from loving Squall.

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Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:12:27 PM | Message Detail
So, I haven't asked yet, but who picked Vivi over Zelda and why?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 4/5 points
Current Match Prediction: Riku vs. Frog
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:13:27 PM | Message Detail
Personally, I hope Alucard smashes everyone in his division, including Snake. However, that's just me speaking with bias.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:13:35 PM | Message Detail
So, I haven't asked yet, but who picked Vivi over Zelda and why?

I can only answer the second question. They were on crack.

---
Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:14:24 PM | Message Detail
I'm not entirely convinced that Sora/Alucard will even be close now, and those with small feet need not apply.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Keno316 | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:14:25 PM | Message Detail
I picked Vivi over Zelda, because I honestly didn't think Zelda would be strong enough to take him. But Ness's performance is making me regret that decision.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:14:28 PM | Message Detail
Hey, I picked Vivi > Zelda. ;_;
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Summer 2005 Contest - 4/5 points
Current Match Prediction: Riku vs. Frog
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:14:52 PM | Message Detail
Vivi over Zelda's a very real possibility.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:15:38 PM | Message Detail
I love Alucard, the only grudge I have against him is everyone thinking his quote comes from him, when it really comes from Edmond Burke. I know you know what quote I'm talking about, so I won't bother remembering the exact phrasing of the words.

In fact, I would have loved to see Alucard take the division up until 2 days ago when I was graced with the immense amounts of ass kicking bottled into one little disc that reads "God of War" on the top.

---
Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:16:27 PM | Message Detail
As for my analysis for Vivi/Zelda, here it is:

Vivi WILL beat Zelda
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/20/2005 6:35:37 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, I know this taking from Ulti's topic of when he predicted Starcraft beating Halo, but I feel I must say something about this match because like today's Ness/CJ matchup, it's a lot tougher than it looks.

On the surface, this match may seem simple. Here's Zelda. She shares the same name of her series. She wins, game over. But once you start looking at past performances, you'll find that this match is a lot tougher than it looks.

Let me start off by saying the obvious: Both Vivi and Zelda were never in the same contest, thus making it difficult to gauge their strengths relative to each other. Both of them never made it past Round 2, and both were destroyed by elite characters (Sephiroth and Mega Man respectively). So let's see how they did.

Zelda was in the 2003 contest. In the first round, she faced off against Lara Croft, who we now know, is fodder. Zelda managed to gain about 62% on her, which in my eyes, isn't very good. So what does she do? She turns around and falls just shy of breaking 40% on Mega Man.

Vivi was in the 2004 Summer Contest and was stuck facing Donkey Kong in the first round, a match that many believed Vivi couldn't win. Vivi went on to completely destroy DK 57-43% when Tommy Vercetti managed only to barely beat him a year earlier. Vivi then went on to get almost 30% on Sephiroth despite the obvious SFF.

Vivi's killing of DK puts him at around Zelda's level. But Zelda does indeed have TP coming up soon, so we'll see if TP is gonna do anything in this match. Some may argue that 40% on Mega Man is better than 30% on Sephiroth. I'd say it's about equal. Vivi is very underrated by the stats due to him being SFF'd by Sephiroth in Round 2, so it's even harder to gauge his strength.

It all depends on answering a few questions:

1) Did Lara Croft take a massive fall from 2002 to 2003?
2) Did Zelda overperform on Mega Man?
3) Did DK remain constant from 2003 to 2004?
4) How much SFF did Vivi suffer against Sephiroth?
5) How much of a boost will Zelda get from TP?

Some of you are asking, "Well, what about Kuja vs. Master Hand? Isn't FF9 weak?" Well, not exactly. Vivi =/= Kuja, and he's shown his strength by beating DK substantially. Vivi will also gain an advantage because he is a Black Mage. And I'll take a Black Mage over a damsel in distress any day.

My Prediction: Vivi will win with 50.15%. Feel free to rub it in if I'm wrong >_>.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 1/2 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Ryu Hayabusa


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Summer 2005 Contest - 4/5 points
Current Match Prediction: Riku vs. Frog
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:17:34 PM | Message Detail
Did you really have to italicize that you evil, evil, man you?

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Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:17:43 PM | Message Detail
Remember: All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

Alucard knows what's up when it comes to taking quotes from other people. You must give him that.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg
From: Delirium Trigger | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:19:19 PM | Message Detail
I thought it was "is for good men to do nothing."

But he did pick one bad ass quote to steal.

---
Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/23/2005 8:20:46 PM | Message Detail
I picked Vivi for the following reasons:

1) Vivi-through-DK is at 29.10% on base Link. If anything, I think DK might be a little stronger than his 2k3 value, which bumps Vivi up some more. I'm guessing Vercetti benefited from bracket voting in 2k3, and the gun to DK's head probably didn't help the ape out much either.

2) Zelda has been in two matches that give her an extrapolated value of 30.29%. However, a year after Zelda beat Lara Croft, Lara fell 7.57%. Not only that, Lara did marginally better against Zelda than her 2k2 value predicts. Something's fishy there. Additionally, a year after Zelda performed respectably on Mega Man, Link SFF'd him. This might not mean anything, but it leads me to believe that a lot of casual Mega Man fans are also rabid Zelda fans, which may have caused an overperformance by Zelda. Which has the side effect of making Lara Croft make more sense.

In sum, I think Vivi is slightly higher than 29.1% and I think that Zelda is slightly lower than 30.29%. And when a match is predicted to go to the winner with under 52%, I think you need to trust your instincts, and mine say Vivi.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
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