Mega Man is not nearly as strong as the stats suggest, again

You could say that even the unadjusted stats have him "nearly" as strong as the adjusted ones do.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Characters have had surges in popularity in both a positive and negative manner. Now, no one is going to just randomly increase or decrease by large amounts. According to the stats, it would require a 2% drop for Zero to match up with that unadjusted value. Certainly nothing that is completely out of the picture, especially given the rather lackluster performances of Mega Man as a whole. But I'm a supporter of the "not joined at the hip" thing, so I'm not saying what one does affects the other.

I somewhat agree, but I would think in general it is who a character faces that causes random fluctuation rather than a character slightly increasing or decreasing in popularity. Of course there can be major differences, such as a game like KH bringing in an influx of FF fans. But for characters like Zero and Mega Man who constantly have games out, I don't think they would decrease in popularity at all. It's just a matter of who they face, which is the basis of Mega Man adjustments. Of course it's something that stats can't account for, so it's something that you can't solve using stats. You just have to make the judgement yourself about how a character will fluctuate based on who he is facing.

I don't agree with the saying that 2k3 was Sonic's worst year, when you are comparing direct matchups. 2k3 was Sonic's worst year because he faced Cloud. I don't see him losing popularity for a year and then suddenly gaining it back. Thus, I see the Sonic/Zero match as independent of how the stats place Sonic due to Sonic/Cloud. Similarly, seeing Shadow get 45% on Mario makes me think that Zero can at LEAST do that well. I may very well be wrong, but that's my reasoning for Zero getting 46% on Mario. I'm not really using the X-Stats.

I don't know what to say about that Mega Man/Mario relationship however. Mega Man performed directly better than Mario against Sephiroth in the same year. However, Mario performed much better than Mega Man against Link, but those matches were 2 years apart. It's up in the air....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Then you haven't been paying attention. Mega Man has done pretty well for himself in these contests. Something you were quite well aware of last year, when you had a different agenda ;)

I'm not saying Mega Man is weak. Hell, 2004 could have just been his year to do rather poorly. Nearly all characters seem to go through a thing, for whatever reason, where they don't perform as they should or as their previous performances have indicated. But just because Mega Man performed well in 2002 and 2003 does not mean you give him a value from those years simply because he had an off year. If he performed horribly in that year -- and he did -- then he needs to be represented as such. He, however, was not given that representation and was adjusted by 4%. That does, in fact, make a difference in many matches.

I dropped my Oracle prediction by a full 3 points based on the picture alone. If I could foresee that beforehand, what's so crazy about it?

I have no idea why you would think his picture is going to make him perform that much better. But we're not exactly on the same level when it comes to the relevance the picture plays in these contests.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

I believe said underperformance (by Mega Man, not Tidus) was 2%.

The stats you have and the stats I'm looking at have Mega Man being adjusted up 2% and being adjusted up 4%.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

You could say that even the unadjusted stats have him "nearly" as strong as the adjusted ones do.

Well, Mega Man (adjusted) would get 55% against Mega Man (unadjusted), so it isn't necessarily a matter of being a 60-40 affair, but the difference is certainly there.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

I think Lloyd is officially one of the biggest bombs this contest will see. I would have been content with him getting 57-58% but he's struggling to break 55% on fodder. Completely embarrasing.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 3/4 points
Current Match Prediction: Samus vs. Yuri

Hmm, first time on today, and it seems Lloyd did little with the day vote. Ah well....

Hopefully Samus slaughtering fodder will bring me up again.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Lloyd vs. Wesker - Bracket: Lloyd - Vote: Lloyd (2/3)

I don't agree with the saying that 2k3 was Sonic's worst year, when you are comparing direct matchups. 2k3 was Sonic's worst year because he faced Cloud. I don't see him losing popularity for a year and then suddenly gaining it back.

Well, he didn't gain it completely back in 2004, but he did gain some of it back from 2002. I can't really agree with the fact that he faced Cloud and therefore was weaker than he should have been, which is what I'm gathering from your statement. A lot here seem to give his decrease to WDF, along with Samus and a few other characters, and then he regained some of his original (2002) strength back in 2004.

Similarly, seeing Shadow get 45% on Mario makes me think that Zero can at LEAST do that well.

I don't think Shadow getting 45% on Mario says that Zero can "at least" do that well. Hell, if Shadow went up against Mario again, I would expect an entirely different result from what we saw in 2003.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Lloyd's performance is pretty bad, I must say. I expected him to be around the level of KOS-MOS at the max, but he appears to be significantly lower than that. The only good thing about this match today makes me happy I switched to Diablo beating Kratos before the bracket lockdown.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

I'm not saying that Zero did, in fact, drop, but I do consider it likely as opposed to thinking Hayabusa's picture provided him with a 4% boost in performance. I'm not saying the picture factor or whatever doesn't exist, because all of these factors exist, regardless of how big or small.

you do realize that a 4% boost in a 91,000 vote match only accounts for 3640 votes, right? or that 1820 people would have to change their vote? when you figure in that this match also had 10,000 more votes than Hayabusa's last match (against Sora), it seems easily within the realm of possibility for that many casual voters to say "hey, that's the Ninja Gaiden guy!" or even, "hey, that ninja looks pretty cool!", which are two statements that couldn't be made about Hayabusa with his unrecognizable Dead or Alive pics.


CATS especially seems like a clear-cut case, even if nothing else is.

after CATS almost won a match with a vastly cooler looking and recognizable pic (don't forget that he was actually the THIRD strongest villain in a division that included 2 Final Fantasy villain and Sonic's villain), i honestly don't understand how anyone can dispute that match pics can and do make a difference.

i mean, come on: Tina Armstrong over Gordon Freeman. that's another big one. do you really think that more people voted for Tina because they thought her game was superior or because she had a great, developed personality? she didn't even have the bracket advantage.

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

You could say that even the unadjusted stats have him "nearly" as strong as the adjusted ones do.

...But adjusted Mega Man scores 54% on unadjusted Mega Man. I don't think that's "nearly" the same.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

and for the record - i was way off on Lloyd. i honestly thought that he could be dead even with Angel Kefka, not just Lettuce Kefka. dang.

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

I think Lloyd is officially one of the biggest bombs this contest will see. I would have been content with him getting 57-58% but he's struggling to break 55% on fodder. Completely embarrasing.

and that award still has to go to Kuja. he struggled to break 45% on fodder despite being heavily favored to win his four-pack. now, THAT'S embarrassing.

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

and that award still has to go to Kuja. he struggled to break 45% on fodder despite being heavily favored to win his four-pack. now, THAT'S embarrassing.

I meant this year's Summer Contest. It's pretty clear Kuja's the biggest bomb of all time.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 3/4 points
Current Match Prediction: Samus vs. Yuri

Well, he didn't gain it completely back in 2004, but he did gain some of it back from 2002. I can't really agree with the fact that he faced Cloud and therefore was weaker than he should have been, which is what I'm gathering from your statement. A lot here seem to give his decrease to WDF, along with Samus and a few other characters, and then he regained some of his original (2002) strength back in 2004.

No, you missed it. I didn't say Cloud made him weaker than he should have been. I was trying to explain where I think fluctuations come from. I don't think Sonic all of a sudden got more popular from 2k3 to 2k4, unless you think that Sonic Heroes made him more popular than he previously was (which I doubt). I would attribute changes in strength more to who a character faces rather than a character increasing or decreasing in popularity. The stats can't account for such a factor. That was the point of my post. I was just using Sonic as an example.

Some good stuff in this topic by the way. Slowflake and RPGuy hit the nail right on the head with some of the things I was thinking.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I meant this year's Summer Contest. It's pretty clear Kuja's the biggest bomb of all time.

I could argue Gordon Freeman in 2k2. A three seed from what many consider the penultimate FPS game that spawned one of the most popular online games of all time going against an unknown fourteen seed bimbo from a mediocre fighting series. Truly, Gordon Freeman is amazing.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

you do realize that a 4% boost in a 91,000 vote match only accounts for 3640 votes, right? or that 1820 people would have to change their vote? when you figure in that this match also had 10,000 more votes than Hayabusa's last match (against Sora), it seems easily within the realm of possibility for that many casual voters to say "hey, that's the Ninja Gaiden guy!" or even, "hey, that ninja looks pretty cool!", which are two statements that couldn't be made about Hayabusa with his unrecognizable Dead or Alive pics.

<3<3<3

Sometimes I think too hard when I try to say the same things....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Damn, Im not alone this matter..

<3 my other Board 8ers who agree Zero will break 45% against Mario
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 4/4
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Lloyd. Tomorrow: Samus.

I could argue Gordon Freeman in 2k2. A three seed from what many consider the penultimate FPS game that spawned one of the most popular online games of all time going against an unknown fourteen seed bimbo from a mediocre fighting series. Truly, Gordon Freeman is amazing.

XD

that is true. what other character has such a long track record of losing that they spawned their own catchphrase? GFNW

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

I could argue Gordon Freeman in 2k2. A three seed from what many consider the penultimate FPS game that spawned one of the most popular online games of all time going against an unknown fourteen seed bimbo from a mediocre fighting series. Truly, Gordon Freeman is amazing.

And the funniest part is that according to your all-time stats, Gordon is above her.

But even Gordon is ranked above Kuja. Hell, Kuja is ranked among the weakest characters ever because of his match against Master Hand.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 3/4 points
Current Match Prediction: Samus vs. Yuri

If Sam gets a good picture against Donkey Kong and Vivi flops hard against Zelda...

*mind runs wild on possible unexpected upsets*
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 4/4
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Lloyd. Tomorrow: Samus.

And the funniest part is that according to your all-time stats, Gordon is above her.

TJF at work, my friend. Tina didn't have that advantage in a face shot with Aeris, so Gordon's 2k2 rank is a lot lower than 2k3 and 2k4.

And pictures don't matter. Hmph.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Makes me wonder if perhaps Tifa will overperform on Vyse...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Makes me wonder if perhaps Tifa will overperform on Vyse...

Face shot.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Although, looking at Yuna's pic...
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

If Vivi beats Zelda that will make my contest because Vivi is one of my favorite characters ever.

And I think Sam is even more unrecognizable with a closeup pic. I would recognize his generic full-body shot with the night vision goggles easier. DK is one of the the masters of underperforming (see: his match with Aya Brea and Duck Hunt) so I think it'll be closer than expected.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 3/4 points
Current Match Prediction: Samus vs. Yuri

Makes me wonder if perhaps Tifa will overperform on Vyse...

Face shot.

exactly. now Round 2 on th other hand...... just wait until Luigi has to face off against Tifa's massive mammaries.

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

I think the reason that Mega Man got worse than he was expected to against Link last year, was because the pro-MM pic wasn't a very good one, while the pro-Link pic had MM cowering in fear. Also, a bit of a Link increase with a Mega Man decrease, plus maybe a bit of SFF, and you've got an "under performance" there.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.

And pictures don't matter. Hmph.

Pictures DO matter, but only very slightly in most cases.
Duke Milkem's overperformance on Cloud is a prime example of this.

Hayabusa's ninja pic most likely helped him some, but certainly nowhere near his 4.77% "overperformance" yesterday.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Never mind the fact that she's from FF7. Her TJF alone should be enough to take down Luigi. Her being from FF7 (and an important character to the story at that) drives the nail into Luigi's coffin.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 3/4 points
Current Match Prediction: Samus vs. Yuri

Match 5: (1) Samus Aran vs. (8) Yuri Hyuga

Past Performance

Samus Aran

Summer 2002
Beat Ken Masters, 65.31% - 34.69%
Beat Ryu Hoshi, 57.85% - 42.15%
Beat Sonic the Hedgehog, 50.02% - 49.98%
Lost to Sephiroth, 47.36% - 52.64%
Ranked: 4th

Summer 2003
Beat Isaac, 75.34% - 24.66%
Beat KOS-MOS, 69.75% - 30.25%
Beat Squall Leonhart, 58.20% - 41.80%
Lost to Link, 37.94% - 62.06%
Ranked: 7th

Summer 2004
Beat Lara Croft, 82.39% - 17.61%
Beat Sam Fisher, 80.97% - 19.03%
Beat Sora, 65.85% - 34.15%
Beat Sonic the Hedgehog, 57.51% - 42.49%
Lost to Cloud, 40.99% - 59.01%
Ranked: 4th

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Yuri Hyuga

Summer 2002
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2003
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2004
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Analysis:

Let’s all welcome Yuri to the contest. This will be his last stay with us because he’s about to get a serious beating from Samus. Samus on the other hand will be staying with us for a while. With Clinkeroth not in the main bracket she has the best odds of winning the contest according to board 8. Just like Mario did with Joanna I can easily see Samus breaking 80% on the character from Shadow Hearts.

Though getting an exact percent is going to be tough so nobody from Shadow Hearts has made it to the contest. Also according to many people on the board people have said that Yuri will come in last place when everything is done, but IMO I believe the title of weakest character will either belong to Agent 47 or Manny.

Now let’s talk about Samus. The long awaited game, Metroid Prime 2 finally came out this year. Though I don’t think that’s going to help her too much. First we have the not-so-expected low sales of it and second there’s a big chance that most people who owned MP2 already owned MP.

Now there’s the DS demo of Metroid Prime: Hunters that got packaged with the DS for a few months when it was released. I know games for the handhelds don’t usually give strength to characters (see Pikachu, Felix and Isaac), but I think the demo itself will give Samus more of a popularity boost than Metroid Prime 2. Why you ask? Well the best reason is, that about two million or so people were forced to get it (whether they wanted or not they got it); of course then they would play the game and at least get to know/love Samus.

So there you’ve heard it from me, I think Samus is going to increase this year. Though the increase I’m predicting will be small, it could give her the advantage to beat what’s left of the elite 8 also with Sephiroth’s bad performance in the villains contest being true, she could have a chance to beat him. But enough of the futures I still have to make a good enough prediction so it sounds possible so without further ado.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Samus Aran over Yuri Hyuga

charmander6000’s Prediction: Samus wins, 84.63% - 15.37%

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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

Hmm, I assume new match pictures went up, so I'll comment on them right now as I look at them for the first time.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b05.jpg

OH MY! Samus in her Dark suit!! That's badass. Yuri...meh....DARK SUIT!

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b06.jpg

I DID NOT see that Frog pic coming</sarcasm>. Riku looks like he's trying to pull a Mithos and win the cute factor. Meh overall.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b07.jpg

Ganon got his same ol' same ol' pic. Yuna looks nice in heres though. =D

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b08.jpg

Figured BB wouldn't get his Solid Clone pic. Auron should safely win this now.

And that's it. ;.;
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Lloyd vs. Wesker - Bracket: Lloyd - Vote: Lloyd (2/3)

Never mind the fact that she's from FF7. Her TJF alone should be enough to take down Luigi. Her being from FF7 (and an important character to the story at that) drives the nail into Luigi's coffin.

Yeah, we've never had a character from a strong game be weaker than Luigi! *waves at Kefka* Of course, Tifa isn't going to be weaker than 25.24%, but you get my point.

I'm curious to see what we get for round 2 pictures. I'd love to see a sprite round.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

And I think Sam is even more unrecognizable with a closeup pic. I would recognize his generic full-body shot with the night vision goggles easier.

I dunno. His closeup shot against Samus last year was pretty awesome, I think.

And it's really hard to get a close up of Tifa without including her chest without REALLY zooming in. It's not a total face shot. You can still see quite a bit of the upper body in most of these pictures.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Phazon Suit, dammit. PHAZON Suit.

Though I do like the Dark Suit best.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 002/003 - Matches: 02/03 - Rank: 12444/33793 - Today: Lloyd - Tomorrow: Samus

I dunno. His closeup shot against Samus last year was pretty awesome, I think.

It was a good pic, but it's easier to recognize him with his full-body shot, IMO.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 3/4 points
Current Match Prediction: Samus vs. Yuri

Well, I think as long as Fisher's got the goggles, people know who he is.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Boy, speculation here sure exploded...Lets just see how the end results fare...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

I really don't think that Luigi can beat Tifa. Luigi has proven time and again, that he chokes against characters with any decent strength. Luigi WAS the biggest bomb in 2003. Tifa is from FF7, she's an extremely important character to the story and thus could be on the level of Aeris, and she has a huge TJF advantage.

But, at the same time, I wouldn't be all that surprised if Luigi beat her. This contest has proven thus far that new characters suck in a contest setting. I think she'll be one of the few (like Leon Kennedy) that will not disappoint.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 3/4 points
Current Match Prediction: Samus vs. Yuri

DK will prob give us a good match..Maybe keep it close with Sammy for the first 3 hours and then pull away..

I mean it wouldn't be a contest without a relatively close Donkey Kong Match!
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 4/4
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Lloyd. Tomorrow: Samus.

I'd say that Tifa has 75% chance of beating Luigi.

Luigi is far below Aeris, so even if Tifa ends up weaker than Aeris, she still got some breathing space.

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Phazon Suit, dammit. PHAZON Suit.

Though I do like the Dark Suit best.

My bad, I was excited, and the two look kinda similar, so I confused them.

That being said, Shadow > Dark Suit
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Lloyd vs. Wesker - Bracket: Lloyd - Vote: Lloyd (2/3)

Does anyone here think Leon Kennedy could be on the level of 2k4 Tidus?

*raises hand* I think Leon can manage about 35% on Mega Man. How much would he need to get on Gordon to get 35% on Mega Man?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 3/4 points
Current Match Prediction: Samus vs. Yuri

But, at the same time, I wouldn't be all that surprised if Luigi beat her. This contest has proven thus far that new characters suck in a contest setting. I think she'll be one of the few (like Leon Kennedy) that will not disappoint.

Wrong... New characters OVERALL tend to suck, not new characters to the contest. Auron, Magus, Frog, Zero, Shadow... They all did extremely well when they first entered the contest. I see no reason why Tifa wouldn't be successful in the contest as well.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

That being said, Shadow > Dark Suit

Just how many suits does she has?

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.

Leon would have to get 72.94% on Gordon Freeman to equal 2004 Tidus.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Don't worry, I'm currently working on the Grand Luigi Conspiracy Theory. Or translating it into math, at least, as I've already posted the manifesto. Damn communists, keeping the Man in Green down!
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

DKAHCM

aka Donkey Kong always has close matches!

2k2 : DK vs Ayea Brea
2k3 : DK vs Tommy Vercetti
Game Contest : DK vs Duck Hunt
2k4: DK vs Vivi


I cant see DK getting close to MC so Sammy vs DK must be our DKAHCM for 2k5!
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 4/4
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Lloyd. Tomorrow: Samus.

Wrong... New characters OVERALL tend to suck, not new characters to the contest. Auron, Magus, Frog, Zero, Shadow... They all did extremely well when they first entered the contest. I see no reason why Tifa wouldn't be successful in the contest as well.

I meant new characters in this particular contest. But I see your point, which is why I think Tifa wouldn't have too much trouble with Luigi and she might give Sonic a good fight before going down.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 3/4 points
Current Match Prediction: Samus vs. Yuri

Leon would have to get 72.94% on Gordon Freeman to equal 2004 Tidus.

What about un-adjusted 2k4 Tidus?

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Reserved for the winner of the SC2K5 Guru Challenge.