Oh look Auron isnt adjusted for SFF at all even though he faced a guy from the most popular game in his series.

Dont know where you get your stats from Tequilla Gundam -_-.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1768

Zero won't break 45% on Mario. If Zero could barely do it on Mega Man (without SFF, if there was no SFF in Mega Man/Zero, it proves my point more), why would he do it on Mario?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 3/4 points
Current Match Prediction: Samus vs. Yuri

From: NewLib | Posted: 7/22/2005 9:29:48 PM | Message Detail
If Zero get 46-48 on Mario that puts Ryu Hayabusa at around Knuckles level. KNUCKLES LEVEL.

People disrespect Hayabusa for his performance last year, but remember that his original expectations were higher.

From: Kaxon | Posted: 7/22/2005 9:31:07 PM | Message Detail
We don't have any hard data, but all the evidence suggests that pictures DO matter. CATS in the spring contest, Master Chief and Liquid Snake ranking so much higher in 2k4 than in their other contests, Ryu Hayabusa yesterday. For some reason there are just some people who are determined to cling to the belief that pictures don't matter.

Good point; there is a good bit of stuff to go on. (though I don't see how MC and Liquid Snake are related to pic factor too much) CATS especially seems like a clear-cut case, even if nothing else is.
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www.SC2K5.com
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7 Mario 37.28%
11 Zero 33.96%

You know Newlib, if Zero wasn't expected to get 46 - 47 on Mario then you would have a point.

28 Knuckles 26.74%
36 Ryu Hayabusa 22.14%

Ironically, Knuckles is only 4% stronger than Ryu.. which is exactly *wait for it* how much Ryu overperformed by.

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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 4/4
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Lloyd. Tomorrow: Samus.

Hayabusa did not, a year removed from his last game, gain 4.5 percentage points because he looks like a Ninja.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Why are you so insistent on using Zero's old stats when he just underperformed by 4% yesterday?
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Oh we still believe in Mega Man/Link SFF I see.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/22/2005 7:32:49 PM | Message Detail | #252
http://www.gamefaqs.com/poll/index.html?poll=1768

Zero won't break 45% on Mario. If Zero could barely do it on Mega Man (without SFF, if there was no SFF in Mega Man/Zero, it proves my point more), why would he do it on Mario?

_--..

Zero got 44% on Megaman who is a percent and a half STRONGER than Mario...that puts Zero getting 45-46 on Mario...
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 4/4
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Lloyd. Tomorrow: Samus.

He underperformed because his stats are a bit inflated by the 20XX factor.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 3/4 points
Current Match Prediction: Samus vs. Yuri

From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/22/2005 7:36:43 PM | Message Detail | #256
Why are you so insistent on using Zero's old stats when he just underperformed by 4% yesterday?
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Zero didn't underperform. Ryu overperformed..
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 4/4
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Lloyd. Tomorrow: Samus.

7 Mario 37.28%
11 Zero 33.96%

You know Newlib, if Zero wasn't expected to get 46 - 47 on Mario then you would have a point.

You're using the adjusted stats, which absurdly assumed that MM got SFF'ed by Link out of the blue.

When it comes to MM and his group, the un-adjusted stats are more appropriate to use.

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Posts without a sig looks ugly, so I guess I need something here.

Zero didn't underperform. Ryu overperformed..

I don't think it's possible for Ryu to overperform by 4% because of a match picture.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 3/4 points
Current Match Prediction: Samus vs. Yuri

Why did Ryu overperform? I want a reason.


I also like how you dropped the Snake beats Auron by 55+% argument though.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Zero won't break 45% on Mario. If Zero could barely do it on Mega Man (without SFF, if there was no SFF in Mega Man/Zero, it proves my point more), why would he do it on Mario?

I think you messed up in that post. But anyways, who's to say that there was no SFF in Zero/MM? It's more than a possibility for that to have happened.

Nobody still said anything about Zero getting 48% on Sonic. I'd trust that matchup before I trusted a possible SFF matchup with Mega Man.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

From: NewLib | Posted: 7/22/2005 7:40:00 PM | Message Detail | #263
Why did Ryu overperform? I want a reason.


I also like how you dropped the Snake beats Auron by 55+% argument though.
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You dropped it after I showed you Snake was 4% stronger than Auron.. Nice job running away.

Ryu was underestimated by the stats and had a good picture that is why he overperformed..
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 4/4
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Lloyd. Tomorrow: Samus.

Zero was projected to get 43.5% against Mario in 2k3. The Sonic thing isnt an argument.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

From: Tequilla Gundam
You dropped it after I showed you Snake was 4% stronger than Auron.. Nice job running away.

Check the top of the page cheif. That was the last post on it.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Nobody still said anything about Zero getting 48% on Sonic. I'd trust that matchup before I trusted a possible SFF matchup with Mega Man.

That's like what, 2k3?

In 2k4, he only got 44% on MM, who got more than doubled by Link.

I'd trust the more recent results.

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Posts without a sig looks ugly, so I guess I need something here.

Geez people. There's nothing intrinsically absurd with the adjustment for Mega Man/Link. And it really is not that big of an adjustment, all considered.

Also, it doesn't necessarily have to be for SFF. And perhaps people are confused by the name "SFF"; "similar appeal factor" would be the broader theme. But it could also have been caused by the duality of the match pics introducing some voting quirk. Or something else entirely.

Or, it could be a total non-factor that doesn't need explanation or require adjustment. We really can't be sure.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Its a bigger adjustment than was given to Sephiroth/Auron with more proof of SFF.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

From: NewLib | Posted: 7/22/2005 7:42:07 PM | Message Detail | #266
Zero was projected to get 43.5% against Mario in 2k3. The Sonic thing isnt an argument.
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err..

And he is projected to get 45-45% against Mario this year. You can cling to 2 year old stats if you choose...

Creativename already addressed the adjustment issue with Auron..

Checkmate..
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Summer 2005 Contest Score : 4/4
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Lloyd. Tomorrow: Samus.

From: NewLib | Posted: 7/22/2005 9:44:57 PM | Message Detail
Its a bigger adjustment than was given to Sephiroth/Auron with more proof of SFF.

We'll have more of an idea about that later. There isn't really enough evidence for that yet, as we have no stable Auron value to go by. Though I for one do believe it, which is why I have Auron over Ganon. I'm not that confident there, but I think that is a very tough to call match.

And if things end up such that people call for retroactive Sephiroth vs. Auron SFF adjustments, those can be done. Meanwhile one can easily do it on their own by adjusting Auron/Ness/Scorpion/Jak up by 10%-20%.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Where?

He adressed the Mega Man/Link SFF issues. He didnt say a word about Auron/Sephiroth. And if you believe Scorpion dropped over 4 percentage points for NO REASON besides having a game coming out right after the contest than you are a fool.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Good point; there is a good bit of stuff to go on. (though I don't see how MC and Liquid Snake are related to pic factor too much)

I believe MC and Liquid Snake support the argument for pic factor in Frog/Solid Snake, since they both ranked higher through Frog than at any other time.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Current Score: 2/3 | Today: Lloyd over Wesker

I've talked about Auron earlier. The tricky part is how much to assign to Sephiroth/Auron and Cloud/Sephiroth.

Easier to just say everyone in that 4-pack is underrated by 10%-20%, for whatever reason.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

Cloud/Sephy is a very touchy issue.

Can SFF really happen between 2 chars who are so close to each other?

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Posts without a sig looks ugly, so I guess I need something here.

Its a bigger adjustment than was given to Sephiroth/Auron with more proof of SFF.

No, it isn't. My adjustment through Tails bumps Auron up to 33.56% from 30.08%, a difference of 3.48%. My adjustment for Mega Man brings him up to 38.68% from 35.96%, a difference of 2.72%. It's not really a huge deal like everyone makes it out to be.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

From: Kaxon | Posted: 7/22/2005 9:51:55 PM | Message Detail
I believe MC and Liquid Snake support the argument for pic factor in Frog/Solid Snake, since they both ranked higher through Frog than at any other time.

Seems too indirect to me to be convincing.

Also a Master Chief increase made sense. And I'd be more willing to trust FF7/MGS SFF (which there is circumstantial evidence for, if untrustworthy) or just weirdness than the Solid **** pic. I don't think the Solid **** pic would come close to explaining Seph/Liquid.

But, this stuff is something in favor of pic effects rather than nothing, I suppose.
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www.SC2K5.com
www.sc2k5.com/gallery

There's still a decent possibility of SFF...

Mega Man SFFing Zero? That's sort of tough considering that the match went about how it was expected to go, with Zero performing a little better than projected.

I'm not saying that Zero did, in fact, drop, but I do consider it likely as opposed to thinking Hayabusa's picture provided him with a 4% boost in performance. I'm not saying the picture factor or whatever doesn't exist, because all of these factors exist, regardless of how big or small.

The hell? What's so farfetched about that? Zero got 48% on Sonic. SHADOW got 45% on Mario. What's farfetched about Zero getting 46% on Mario?

This was all two years ago. I find it meaningless to constantly bring up matches like that when all of these characters have changed for better or worse. Sonic's worst year was in 2003, when Zero scored that 48%. Shadow's best year was 2003 when he scored that 45% on Mario. I happen to believe that Mario's best year will be this one right here. There's not really a flaw as far as what you stated, but they are old matches with characters that have not remained static.

There's no reason why Zero would suddenly decrease in popularity.

Characters have had surges in popularity in both a positive and negative manner. Now, no one is going to just randomly increase or decrease by large amounts. According to the stats, it would require a 2% drop for Zero to match up with that unadjusted value. Certainly nothing that is completely out of the picture, especially given the rather lackluster performances of Mega Man as a whole. But I'm a supporter of the "not joined at the hip" thing, so I'm not saying what one does affects the other.

I'm not saying that Zero would beat Mario,but some people are calling for Mario to get over 60%... I think that's absurd.

There's honestly nothing absurd about it. Going by the stats, Mario's 2004 value -- not accounted for a possible increase on his part -- and Zero's unadjusted value, Mario would end up getting 59.01% against him. It depends on what you believe, but there's certainly nothing absurd about Mario breaking 60% against Zero, especially if he's increased.

However I don't think he will. I expect Zero to get in the 42%-46% range, myself.

I'm expecting a 39 - 42% area.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Zero got 44% on Megaman who is a percent and a half STRONGER than Mario

...I find that incredibly ridiculous to believe. Mega Man showed absolutely no signs of being stronger than Mario in 2004 at all. He was simply given his 2003 value for no apparent reason at all to account for his "underperformance" or "SFF." Honestly, Mario friggin' performed better on Link -- who is far more likely to share a fanbase -- than Mega Man did, regardless of Link's newfound strength.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

From: sidharta | Posted: 7/22/2005 9:54:28 PM | #276
Cloud/Sephy is a very touchy issue.

Can SFF really happen between 2 chars who are so close to each other?

I'm kinda suspecting bracket-voting can affect SFF rematches. We're going to see how it pans out with Crono/Magus II, and we may get Kefka/Crono II as well.

And Zero will probably get in the low-to-mid-40s on Mario, that's what I think. Unless Mario pulls the same **** Link pulled on Megaman... but I think it's less likely, because Zero's not really liked for the same things as Megaman, as evidenced by a SFF-less matchup between the two.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 002/003 - Matches: 02/03 - Rank: 12444/33793 - Today: Lloyd - Tomorrow: Samus

Ryu Hayabusa finally gets his ninja pic, does better than expected. Wesker's performance against Lloyd makes no sense, until you factor in Kefka's angel pic, the only time we've seen a sprite Kefka in these contests.

It's not wild to assume that the match picture does make a difference.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

I'm still expecting Zero to get 45% on Mario.

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A E I OWN U

There's nothing intrinsically absurd with the adjustment for Mega Man/Link.

There was no reason at all to make that adjustment, creative. I still want to hear the reasoning for doing such a thing.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Megaman did slightly better than Mario against Sephiroth in matches that were 5 days apart in 2003, and I've yet to see something that suggest either moved. Mario and Megaman are similar enough beasts.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 002/003 - Matches: 02/03 - Rank: 12444/33793 - Today: Lloyd - Tomorrow: Samus

Wesker's performance against Lloyd makes no sense, until you factor in Kefka's angel pic, the only time we've seen a sprite Kefka in these contests.

And the fact that Wesker looks like Neo today, while Lloyd looks like he's sexually confused.
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SC2K5- Mario, Frog, Snake, Tidus, Crono, Knuckles, Sonic, Ocelot
I prefer to think that SFF stands for Some Frivolous Factor. ~Dabu

There was no reason at all to make that adjustment, creative. I still want to hear the reasoning for doing such a thing.

Link can't possibly be that strong, right? Right...?
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/22/2005 10:08:57 PM | Message Detail
Wesker's performance against Lloyd makes no sense, until you factor in Kefka's angel pic, the only time we've seen a sprite Kefka in these contests.

It could simply be overestimation of Lloyd, and the whole hero>villain==>Lloyd>Mithos thing being completely false.

Though there could be a small direct pic factor too, as IMO Wesker looked better here than Lloyd.


From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/22/2005 10:09:22 PM | Message Detail
There's nothing intrinsically absurd with the adjustment for Mega Man/Link.

There was no reason at all to make that adjustment, creative. I still want to hear the reasoning for doing such a thing.

Mega Man, Snake, Knuckles, Tidus, and a whole bunch of other guys affected by what seems to be a systematic undervaluation.

And as Slowflake said, Mega Man has shown in 1-level-removed match-ups to be on par with Mario.
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I'm still expecting Zero to get 45% on Mario.

I'm expecting this too.
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Today's subliminal thought is:

Specifically, Mega Man, Snake, Zero, Knuckles, Vercetti, Tidus, and Shadow. Mega Man, Zero, Knuckles, and Vercetti happened to fall proportionally, as did Tidus and Shadow. And if you're willing to believe that something went wrong in Mega Man/Tidus, why is Link/Mega Man causing so much of a problem? Especially when it takes a lot more "SFF" to bring Tidus and Shadow to where they were in 2k3 than it does to bring Mega Man and co back up.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Wesker's performance against Lloyd makes no sense, until you factor in Kefka's angel pic, the only time we've seen a sprite Kefka in these contests.

It still doesn't make sense for Lloyd to be so close to Mithos, regardless of how you slice it.

Perhaps it would be better to adjust 20XX based on a constant Zero (he seemed constant based on his match with Vercetti anyway) and assume that Mega Man dropped a little bit. How would that affect things? Wouldn't imagine it'd be anything drastic.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Mega Man, Snake, Knuckles, Tidus, and a whole bunch of other guys affected by what seems to be a systematic undervaluation.

He was basically adjusted to attempt at making things seem more accurate with the previous year. Even with the adjustment given to him, for only attempting at making other characters decrease seem more viable, the characters still dropped by rather ridiculous amounts.

I just have no reason whatsoever to believe that Mega Man is as strong as the adjustment you made suggests nor do I believe the other characters who were affected by him are as strong as they are suggested to be. This certainly does not have to fall within the two extremes of full adjustment and no adjustment at all, but even falling in between there makes the difference in which characters are stronger than others and what they are projected to get and what they actually get.

It does make a difference when all is said and done. And believing the picture made the full 4% difference is asinine, really. I'm sure it made him perform better, but Zero did show signs of weakness in that match. It wasn't merely Hayabusa having a kick ass picture and performing as such.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Perhaps it would be better to adjust 20XX based on a constant Zero (he seemed constant based on his match with Vercetti anyway) and assume that Mega Man dropped a little bit. How would that affect things? Wouldn't imagine it'd be anything drastic.

A quarter of a percent different than what we have currently. Even less based on Knuckles and Vercetti.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Wouldn't imagine it'd be anything drastic.

Yeah, nothing much that's been done with that division has been drastic anyway.

You could almost say that the adjustment is "overrated" in its effect on the ratings, heh.
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Well, the accuracy of the 20XX adjustment will make or break Solid Snake this year, I guess you could say.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

And if you're willing to believe that something went wrong in Mega Man/Tidus, why is Link/Mega Man causing so much of a problem?

I believe that it's fine to believe something occured between both of them in those matches. However, in both matches I have clearly expressed how I think that neither would come close to retaining the full adjustments that were given. Tidus is not going to suddenly shoot back up to his 2003 value, or at least I don't believe he will. Much in the same way that Mega Man is not nearly as strong as the stats suggest, again, so I believe. Mega Man's strength can make quite a difference. He can go from being above Mario to below Sonic with those adjustments.

I happen to believe that something certainly occured in both matches with both Mega Man and Tidus underperforming in their respective matches. But the amount of underperformance, I believe to be drastically lower than what many seem to think.

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Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Well, the accuracy of the 20XX adjustment will make or break Solid Snake this year, I guess you could say.

Not really. He could conceivably lose to Ryu or Bowser anyway, provided MGS3 wasn't a big deal. And he and Tidus have common opponents and one of them did an awful lot better.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/22/2005 10:21:14 PM | Message Detail
I just have no reason whatsoever to believe that Mega Man is as strong as the adjustment you made suggests

Then you haven't been paying attention. Mega Man has done pretty well for himself in these contests. Something you were quite well aware of last year, when you had a different agenda ;)

And believing the picture made the full 4% difference is asinine

I dropped my Oracle prediction by a full 3 points based on the picture alone. If I could foresee that beforehand, what's so crazy about it? Not saying that what I thought beforehand was true; but it does clearly indicate that this is not some out-there thing.
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But the amount of underperformance, I believe to be drastically lower than what many seem to think.

I believe said underperformance (by Mega Man, not Tidus) was 2%. It's hard to get drastically lower than that.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

To be honest, I dropped my Oracle percentage a full five points after laying eyes on Hayabusa's pic.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.