I agree with those who said that MM shouldn't have been adjusted.
Without that adjustment, Hayabusa's pic only gave him a 0.77% boost, which is reasonable for a mere pic induced boost.

With that said, I'm now beginning to worry about my MM > Sonic pick.
I picked MM since he's been stronger than Sonic every contest prior to 2k4, where he lands slightly below Sonic, and I thought he slightly underperforms against Link.
But yesterday's results indicated that he probably didn't underperform at all, so if both chars stay exactly constant, my bracket's in big trouble.

---
Posts without a sig looks ugly, so I guess I need something here.

Filthy lies! Jak ring a bell?

I supported Jak a lot during the bracket making process, but after an argument with Chichiri and one other person -- not sure who it was -- I switched to Ness.

I was thinking about going with Ness this time around too, but figured that GTA:SA would turn out to be too popular for Ness to handle. But I am happy that Ness won that one, despite my disliking of EarthBound, I do happen to like Ness.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

"I seem to remember him changing to Ness before bracket lockdown last year."

I know he changed because I convinced him to do it (he knew it was the rigth thing, he just needed a push).
---
"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"

Beat me by more than a minute...
---
"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"

Oh. Good then.

Mario will get 63% on Zero.
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

I'm going to laugh if ness faces another mainstream character next year, and somehow pulls out another win despite almost the entire board thinking he'll lose. It's funny enough that he's managed to do it to us twice, and actually get a larger amount of board 8 against him this time.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996

But I am happy that Ness won that one, despite my disliking of EarthBound, I do happen to like Ness.


That's like the opposite of a bunch of people.
---
"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

Blast it. No Naked Snake.
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

A naked snake picutre is probably being saved for solid's match.
---
Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996

Without that adjustment, Hayabusa's pic only gave him a 0.77% boost, which is reasonable for a mere pic induced boost.

People are still acting like they know that a pic can't mean anything, and arbitrarily decide how much a pic SHOULD matter? So now Zero's weakened in 2k4 even though he beat Vercetti by as much as his 2k3 strength suggested? I say we just wait to see how Zero performs against Mario to draw any conclusions.

I'm calling 46%.....
---
Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

If he puts a picture of Naked Snake as Solid Snake, then CJay is an idiot.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

So now Zero's weakened in 2k4 even though he beat Vercetti by as much as his 2k3 strength suggested? I say we just wait to see how Zero performs against Mario to draw any conclusions.

...No, it doesn't say that unless you look at his adjusted value and determine that as correct. Keeping Zero's performances intact in 2004, he still ends up getting extremely close to his actual percentage in the match if you take his unadjusted value -- that means ignoring the ridiculous "Link vs. Mega Man SFF!" that has been going around.

If anything, this could be the beginning of finding out that Mega Man performed like he should have against Link and didn't have any of this "SFF" by sharing the same fanbase or having "Old School SFF" or whatever it is what people want to attach to that match. It's hard to ignore something that was projected so close to the actual result.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

If he puts a picture of Naked Snake as Solid Snake, then CJay is an idiot.

He did it twice last year...The picture of Snake on the banner is Naked Snake, too.

Looks like this poll is gonna be lucky to get 85,000.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Even last year, the game wasnt out and there was really no way of knowing the werent the same person without known a bit about the MGS universe. Considering that he probably would have had to count Naked Snake nominations to Big Boss to get him in, CJay should know now that Naked Snake = Big Boss
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Pictures only matter if the average user doesn't know either character.

Now has anyone stopped to think the Hayabusa could've just increased?
---
17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

Why?
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Why, if I may ask, would Hayabusa have increased that much? I find it far more likely that, believe it or not, the adjusted stats were not right.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

That's a nice-sized increase considering he had nothing to help him though.

I'm tired of seeing Melting Snake artwork for 95% of Solid Snake's pictures, personally. He could use the new MGS4 concept artwork though, if he wanted.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Even last year, the game wasnt out and there was really no way of knowing the werent the same person without known a bit about the MGS universe.

Well, Konami made it quite clear that it wasn't Solid Snake before the game was released.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Well I didnt know until I played the game, so unless you kept up with news on the game you problem missed that point.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

...No, it doesn't say that unless you look at his adjusted value and determine that as correct.

What does his adjusted value have anything to do with how he directly performed on Tommy Vercetti?
---
Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Why, if I may ask, would Hayabusa have increased that much? I find it far more likely that, believe it or not, the adjusted stats were not right.

So Samus Aran increased from nothing as well.
---
17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

Why, if I may ask, would Hayabusa have increased that much? I find it far more likely that, believe it or not, the adjusted stats were not right.

You do realize Hayabusa measured through a 20XX-adjusted Zero puts him right on par with Jill of SC2K3, don't you? Probably just a coincidence, but it's interesting.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

So perhaps Sora overperformed on him last year? And maybe Aeris overperformed on the Chief in 2003, too (though that makes Felix way too strong)?
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b05.jpg

If anything, this picture hurts Samus's recognizability. Not that it will stop her from breaking 80%.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b06.jpg

This one's my favorite pic out of the four. Both characters look good.

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b07.jpg

Both characters are easily recognizable, but Ganon looks creepy staring at Yuna's chest. How can you vote for that guy?

http://www.gamefaqs.com/shared/sum05/b08.jpg

Mediocre, but the match was never in question.
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Current Score: 2/3 | Today: Lloyd over Wesker

What does his adjusted value have anything to do with how he directly performed on Tommy Vercetti?

Nothing, looking back on it. I read it without paying as much attention as I should have.

So Samus Aran increased from nothing as well.

Samus did have game that released and sold very well. Hayabusa increasing 4% from virtually nothing over a year doesn't make that much sense. Samus could increase from both a game and/or the "hype" -- not that I believe this -- while Hayabusa is suppose to do so from nothing?

You do realize Hayabusa measured through a 20XX-adjusted Zero puts him right on par with Jill of SC2K3, don't you?

I didn't know that, but it's certainly something to look at.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

So perhaps Sora overperformed on him last year? And maybe Aeris overperformed on the Chief in 2003, too (though that makes Felix way too strong)?

It would be a bit odd, considering Hayabusa didn't look so great against Jill, either. Then again, he might've been more recognizable in Jill/Hayabusa, and we just don't realize it.

Where did you get the idea that Aeris overperformed on MC?

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Pictures only matter if the average user doesn't know either character.

More accurately, pictures only matter to the users who don't know OR don't care about either character, OR like them both equally. You better believe there are voters like that in every match.
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Current Score: 2/3 | Today: Lloyd over Wesker

From: Heroic Mario | Posted: 7/22/2005 6:53:27 PM | Message Detail
No, I saw the whole ninja picture he had. But you're kidding yourself in believing he performed that much better because of that picture.

Whoa. Hold on. Weren't you and I the ones going on in 2K4 about how Ryu's PoP pics really hurt him?

We've finally found some validation/evidence for that, and you jump ship. Sheesh.

I'm assuming that this is because your new stance (which takes the opposite position of your old one) now supports a pro-Mario vs. Zero agenda (which replaces your old pro-Hayabusa agenda).

Well, at least you're consistent in your Heroic Mario-ness ;-)
---
www.SC2K5.com

I could understand the picture helping out some, as there's nothing wrong with believing it did. However, believing it helped by 4% is getting ridiculous. It's also hard to simply ignore the fact that his unadjusted value projects Zero/Hayabusa perfectly, with him performing better, which could very well be attributed to the picture.

Obviously, I haven't said that this is absolute because of one match so far that supports the unadjusted levels. But I have been one to say that the unadjusted were far more correct than the adjustments that were given to Mega Man before. I suppose we can find out before the contest is over at any rate. There are plenty of matches that will help in figuring it out.

---
Mario's Path to Victory: Round 2 - (4) Ness
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/135/cunningplan32kw.jpg

Also, we are assuming that everyone familiar with Ninja Gaiden is also familiar with the name Ryu Hayabusa. Similar to how many people may be familiar with Halo, but not the name Master Chief. But if you see a picture of Master Chief, you can immediately recognize him as "the Halo guy". The same could not be said for Ryu. You can't look at his DOA pic and associate him as "the Ninja Gaiden guy".

We assume that you must be a fan of a character in order to vote for him. We also assume that you can't be a fan of a game without being familiar with the character's name. We ALSO assume that people who haven't played the game probably would not vote for a character from said game. Of course I'm speculating, but I would have to disagree with all of that.

For example, I'm willing to bet that a number of people who vote for Kratos probably haven't played God of War. They may recognize him as the guy from God of War and vote for him over Alucard. Of course, there's no possible way to prove that. I'm just giving some alternative thoughts. Sometimes, this topic puts limits on the way the average voter can think....
---
Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

I'm calling 46%.....

Zero?
Getting 46% on Mario?
You're starting to sound like HM did a year ago...

At any rate, if Zero performed according to his unadjusted value again next round, I'll be the first to laugh at that prediction.

---
Posts without a sig looks ugly, so I guess I need something here.

That's like the opposite of a bunch of people.

No, it isn't. How many people like EarthBound and hate Ness? Three? Four?

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

I could understand the picture helping out some, as there's nothing wrong with believing it did. However, believing it helped by 4% is getting ridiculous. It's also hard to simply ignore the fact that his unadjusted value projects Zero/Hayabusa perfectly, with him performing better, which could very well be attributed to the picture.

Back on the current subject, we can't put a limit on how much a picture can help or not. We can only look at what's in front of us. It was said that the Zero match would prove whether or not the pic made a difference. It's right in front of us, but people are still skeptical over it.

Not saying that you can't be right HM, but even if unadjusted Zero/Hayabusa lines up, there still is the possibility of Zero/MM SFF. If it's true that Mega Man DID drop, Mega Man and Zero aren't joined at the hip. There's still a decent possibility of SFF...
---
Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

There is a theme of people saying "pics don't make any difference". It's fine to expect that to be true. But to believe it completely, with full confidence? Bull. We have *no data*.

Back before we got sophisticated with this analysis, I myself was one of the people debating against the overstating of the pic factor; a lot of people were really obsessed with pics, and their impact, and I did not trust that. But now I think we've gone too far in the other direction.

I have a lot of experience when it comes to internet marketing-related testing, and believe me: slight differences (stuff that you wouldn't even notice unless told about it) in stuff can make substantial differences in ROI and related metrics (e.g., click through rates on ads, conversion rates on a product sales page). The internet is all about testing (marketing is all about testing, but testing is much cheaper on the internet than at, say, a physical retail store). Newbies to marketing are always surprised at what kind of differences changes in presentation can make.

We have no data on pics. The only data we could have is a breakdown of voting according to pics when we had multiple pics in a match. But I doubt Ceej even kept track of that. If he did, I would be virtually certain you'd see some marked differences in voting patterns according to pic (perhaps nothing huge, but substantial; and consistent). That's almost always the case when it comes to this kind of stuff.

And remember this: anytime it comes to poll/survey stuff, there are major differences when stratifying/isolating by virtually *any* factor you can think of. e.g., state of residence. If you had a breakdown of these poll results by state, I can guarantee you'd see some systematic themes. An example of this kind of isolation would be the one bit of data Ceej did share with us: AOL voters during that Wind Waker match. Because that factor (what browser the user is using), just a lot of other factors you can think of, is not random. Any time you isolate a set of data (especially internet data) according to a non-random factor, you're going to see some stuff that deviates from the characteristics of the population as a whole.
---
www.SC2K5.com

Does anyone else think that Yuri looks like he's doing the Ocelot Hand Gesture?
---
Moisten your dreams with man urine.
http://www.geocities.com/nicklegends/ - All the Legends of the Hidden Temple info you could possibly want.

Zero?
Getting 46% on Mario?
You're starting to sound like HM did a year ago...

At any rate, if Zero performed according to his unadjusted value again next round, I'll be the first to laugh at that prediction.

The hell? What's so farfetched about that? Zero got 48% on Sonic. SHADOW got 45% on Mario. What's farfetched about Zero getting 46% on Mario? I say you guys are sorely underestimating Zero.... I'm not even using extrapolated stats. I'm using DIRECT MATCHUPS. Even if you want to use the stats, Zero did exactly how he was supposed to on Tommy Vercetti based on his 2k3 strength. There's no reason why Zero would suddenly decrease in popularity.

You can laugh if you want. There's nothing wrong with my reasoning. I'm not saying that Zero would beat Mario,but some people are calling for Mario to get over 60%... I think that's absurd.
---
Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/22/2005 8:55:11 PM | Message Detail
It was said that the Zero match would prove whether or not the pic made a difference. It's right in front of us, but people are still skeptical over it.

Well, that doesn't really prove anything, but it does lend some weight to the argument. Especially since, as you said, it fit with what many expected beforehand.
---
www.SC2K5.com

Mario getting 60% is not absurd; using unadjusted stats gives Mario him just over 59%. If Mario went up a bit and Zero went down a few points Mario would get it.

However I don't think he will. I expect Zero to get in the 42%-46% range, myself.
---
www.SC2K5.com

My top ten hardest matches to predict:

1- The finals
2- Bowser vs. Ryu
3- Alucard vs. Sora
4- Dante vs. Vincent
5- Mario vs. Samus
6- Sonic vs. Mega Man
7- Tidus vs. Bowser/Ryu
8- Solid Snake vs. Tidus/Bowser/Ryu
9- Ganondorf vs. Auron
10- Vivi vs. Zelda

Anything I forgot?
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 3/4 points
Current Match Prediction: Samus vs. Yuri

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/22/2005 4:27:46 PM | Message Detail | #168
Big Boss never had a chance, even with a Naked Snake picture. Solid Snake would have a hard enough time beating Auron.

If you consider 55%+ a hard time?

Anyway, Zero should get around 47% on Mario..

Mario tends to give up a lot on characters who should beat soundly

*cough SERVBOT cough* *cough SHADOW cough*
---
Summer 2005 Contest Score : 4/4
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Lloyd. Tomorrow: Samus.

Even if you want to use the stats, Zero did exactly how he was supposed to on Tommy Vercetti based on his 2k3 strength. There's no reason why Zero would suddenly decrease in popularity.

You can laugh if you want. There's nothing wrong with my reasoning. I'm not saying that Zero would beat Mario,but some people are calling for Mario to get over 60%... I think that's absurd.

Yes, I'll laugh, really hard at that, when Zero got 41% on Mario.

---
Posts without a sig looks ugly, so I guess I need something here.

Yes, I'll laugh, really hard at that, when Zero gets 46-48% on Mario.

Seriously, all these guestimations are worthless until the actual match. So just sit back and wait..
---
Summer 2005 Contest Score : 4/4
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Lloyd. Tomorrow: Samus.

If Snake got 55% plus on Auron, Snake would probably beat Mario 2k4. That isnt happening.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Yes, I'll laugh, really hard at that, when Zero gets 46-48% on Mario.

I'm so glad most of the stats topics are saved. This will be remembered. =P
---
Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

12 Solid Snake 33.05%
20 Auron 29.37%

Looks like Snake would win in the 54-55% range..

2k4 Mario would be in the upper 50s against Auron..

Don't know where you get your stats from Newlib -_-.
---
Summer 2005 Contest Score : 4/4
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Lloyd. Tomorrow: Samus.

If Zero get 46-48 on Mario that puts Ryu Hayabusa at around Knuckles level. KNUCKLES LEVEL.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

I'm so glad most of the stats topics are saved. This will be remembered. =P

Cool, that means I won't be the only one who gets to laugh at him.

---
Posts without a sig looks ugly, so I guess I need something here.

If Zelda blows out Vivi, then DK looks really weak -_-.
---
Summer 2005 Contest Score : 4/4
Rank : 1/33793 Today: Lloyd. Tomorrow: Samus.

There is a theme of people saying "pics don't make any difference". It's fine to expect that to be true. But to believe it completely, with full confidence? Bull. We have *no data*.

We don't have any hard data, but all the evidence suggests that pictures DO matter. CATS in the spring contest, Master Chief and Liquid Snake ranking so much higher in 2k4 than in their other contests, Ryu Hayabusa yesterday. For some reason there are just some people who are determined to cling to the belief that pictures don't matter.
---
SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Current Score: 2/3 | Today: Lloyd over Wesker