A comparison of all four matches at the 10:30 mark:

Mario/Joanna Dark - 46,430
Ness/CJ - 46,579
Zero/Hayabusa - 42,833
Lloyd/Wesker - 41,660

Lloyd is really taking off with the day vote, too. In the half hour, he has gotten 56.27% of the votes.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Aww, looks like this will be the first to miss 90K. Hopefully tomorrow can reach 100K.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]

Tidus will always receive far more love than Lloyd though, considering he's the main character of one of the most popular Final Fantasies on this site.
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.

I've never played any of them 10.8% 9599

How many of those 9000 people do you think would vote for "autistic Kefka"? :P :P :P :P :P

I somewhat jest... but my previous argument wasn't for the popularity of FFVI, it was arguing that there may be a number of people who really don't know who Kefka is.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Yes, and there are a number of people who responded that they've never even played FFVII as well.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

There's more hate for characters like Tidus and Squall partially because there are far more people familiar with them than with Lloyd.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

I'm talking about just on this board, where TOS is huge, yo.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Mario/Joanna Dark - 46,430
Ness/CJ - 46,579
Zero/Hayabusa - 42,833
Lloyd/Wesker - 41,660

Add another tiny crumb to the "Nintendo has increased" theory.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

You mean, even though Lloyd and Wesker have been on the 'Cube?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Hell, so has Snake. Guess he's Nintendo too.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

There's more hate for characters like Tidus and Squall partially because there are far more people familiar with them than with Lloyd.

Yeah, but at least Final Fantasy X and VIII's general fanbase seem to like Tidus and Squall respectively, judging from their past performances. We haven't seen enough of Lloyd, but it's safe to say he's pretty damn weak.

Really, I woldn't blame any Tales of Symphonia fans for not voting for Lloyd. He was too damn annoying. I nearly stopped playing the game because of him. The only other time that happened was with Metal Gear Solid 2.
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It takes a genius to make something simple truly great.

Well, it makes sense that Nintendo and Square would draw the most votes anyway since they're by far the two most popular companies here. I don't think it necessarily means strength increase.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Yeah, but at least Final Fantasy X and VIII's general fanbase seem to like Tidus and Squall respectively, judging from their past performances

I sort of agree, but I feel as though they have underperformed (at least Tidus has) given the success of their games, and that might have something to do with some hate coming from the fanbases. I mean, with a second-banana character as strong as Auron, one would think that the lead should be among the elite characters of the competition...but that is clearly not the case with Tidus.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

Ouch.

Lloyd's doing way worse than I wanted/expected him to. See ya later, Kratos.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

Well, it's hard to be stronger than Auron when the majority of the FFX fanbase adores him to no end while a big portion hates/dislikes Tidus.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Well, it's hard to be stronger than Auron when the majority of the FFX fanbase adores him to no end while a big portion hates/dislikes Tidus.

Yeah, that's exactly what I mean. When you consider how large of a fanbase FFX has, Tidus hasn't done all that well...so he's really not getting that much love from the FFX fans.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

Well, Auron's gonna prove this year that he's the strongest FF character not named Cloud or Sephiroth this year, so being weaker than him's not a bad thing.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Oh, I totally agree with you there. Auron is a force to be reckoned with. But Tidus is still a disappointment, because a lead is almost always the best-performing character from their game.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

Wow, now I'm pretty sure that the prediction precentage for Lloyd/Wesker is going below 50%. There have been ALOT of people asking "Who is Lloyd Irving?".
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Summer 2005 Contest - 2/3 points
Current Match Prediction: Lloyd Irving vs. Albert Wesker

Well, Auron's gonna prove this year that he's the strongest FF character not named Cloud or Sephiroth this year, so being weaker than him's not a bad thing.

Although Tifa and Vincent may have something to say about that....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Tifa and Vincent MAY have a shot at it, but I don't expect them to be that far above Aeris.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I just can't see a 2-7 matchup getting under 50% for the 2 seed. Especially considering there are many a people that say "who's Albert Wesker" as well.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

Well, I don't think Wesker will be the bracket favorite, but I wouldn't be surprised if he had over 40% of them.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/22/2005 2:49:30 PM | #119
Wow, now I'm pretty sure that the prediction precentage for Lloyd/Wesker is going below 50%. There have been ALOT of people asking "Who is Lloyd Irving?".

I second that.

I never would've guessed before the contest, but this match looks to be this year's Vyse/Laharl.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 002/003 - Matches: 02/03 - Rank: 12444/33793 - Today: Lloyd - Tomorrow: Samus

And for the record, I'd still take Lloyd over Vyse, despite what the stats say. (they may not even disagree by much right now)
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Lloyd's 2 seed will help his prediction percentage a bit.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Heh, I remember arguing with HM about Vyse being at least as strong as Lloyd back when he was on his TOS craze, and he told me I was insane.

I think I remember guaranteeing that Lloyd would end up with as many career wins as Vyse, at most. Hmmm...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

And I guarantee you that the reason we're seeing so many "who's Lloyd Irving?" topics is because he's winning. If Wesker were winning, we'd be seeing equally as many "who's Albert Wesker?" (we saw a decent amount when he was beating Luca) topics. Neither one is really all that well known here.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!

If I remember correctly, HM predicted Lloyd to be around Luigi's level in popularity like he does for a bunch of people. I always take a step back and figure it's extremely difficult for ANY new character to come out being as popular as Luigi. It would take a HUGE huge game for a character to do so (Tommy Vercetti, Master Chief). ToS just isn't on that level of popularity....
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."

Heh, when will Heroic Mario ever learn not to mess with Luigi?

First Ridley, now Lloyd.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Keep in mind Wesker only got 55.91% of the brackets behind him against Luca Blight. I can't see Lloyd being less known than Luca and when people don't know either character the usually go for the higher seed.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

This topic has turned into a communist thread.
I (Reddy) and hereby offering salvation to those willing to dispose of thier wicked ruler Steve (not the ridepod, the ulti guy)
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I, Nanaki have returned.

Lloyd:Kratos
Tidus:Auron

To bad Lloyd advances to round 2 and no way Kratos will.
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:/

Kratos and Lloyd should have been switched.
I still hold out hope that Kratos may bring back some ToS respect if he performs respectably against Diablo.
Winning is of course out of the question.
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Samus >> some guy

If I remember correctly, HM predicted Lloyd to be around Luigi's level in popularity like he does for a bunch of people.

You do remember correctly.

Don Quixote strikes again~!
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Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar

Lloyd Irving 54.28% 30003
Albert Wesker 45.72% 25270
TOTAL VOTES 55273

30000 votes for Mr. Irving.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Well Lloyd has slapped on about 1.5% since I left for work this morning, but still an utterly pitiful performance. I guess Angel Kefka really is a beast, or the Spring stats should solely be used after a hearty chili dinner, in the absence of toilet paper, or some combination of the two.

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RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
Sp2k5 - 77/80 (stupid Master Hand)

Heh...percentages are about the same as when I went so sleep last night...


Where is HM anyway? I would like to see his take on this...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

With Lloyd doing so bad against Wesker, who Kefka creamed, and with CJ losing to Ness, I have a feeling that the 3 seeded Kefka might just beat Tommy V, though my bracket is saying otherwise. Unless that Angel pic just really helped.
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Vote for Yoshi
You have no chance to survive make your time.

HM is.... on one of those vanishing jobs that he does. Haven't seen him for a few days. He did say he was moving to Washington... but I figured he'd give us notice or something... if that is the case, it may be a few weeks before we see him.

From: Lopen | Posted: 7/22/2005 11:56:32 AM | #129
And I guarantee you that the reason we're seeing so many "who's Lloyd Irving?" topics is because he's winning. If Wesker were winning, we'd be seeing equally as many "who's Albert Wesker?" (we saw a decent amount when he was beating Luca) topics. Neither one is really all that well known here.

That really explains a lot and covered exactly what I was looking for in this topic. The sheer number of them (once every 45 minutes, it seems, each getting 50+ posts) still makes me think the prediction percentage will hover around 50.

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Help Yuri break 20% on Samus this contest!

I so wish Kefka got his normal pixel as his picture.

Normal > Angel > 3D > Lettuce

It's not happening though, is it?
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

It looks like this match is going to have some trouble breaking 85k
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

I was born in ashes of molten hatred
Raised by demons in abodes of the end
The Reaper's scythe I fall upon to light my path
Wrecked by mangled wounds of life
I have become become the resurrection of the Evil one
'Y know that I don't ****ing care if I live or die

I need a bishop preaching fire to get away with my sins
I despise everything I see so I don't give a **** if you hate me

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

Wesker's actually taking off Lloyd's lead. Granted, nothing big, but still.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Diablo > Kefka > Lloyd = Kratos > Wesker > Mithos. M I RITE?

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A E I OWN U

Kratos might equal Wesker.
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

Kratos > Lloyd
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/22/2005 11:41:30 AM | Message Detail
I'm finding it funny that it's already been said the contest makes no sense:

--Mario beat the everloving hell out of Joanna.
--Ness has been under-rated by the stats the past two years, and IGN showed Vercetti > CJ.
--Ryu finally got a picture we could recognize him with facing Zero, who could have been adjusted too high.
--Angel Kefka skewed how Luca/Wesker should have really been, and Diablo not gettin' linkage against Ganon trickled down to Wesker. It also looks like Lloyd isn't all that much more favored than Mithos...the weirdest part I've seen in the four matches thus far.

It should also be said that three of the eight characters mentioned are brand-spanking new, and one of 'em is from the ever-controversial Villain Contest. The contest DOES make sense; we're just lettin' our premature estimations get in the way. Fortunately, we're gettin' some answers.

Indeed. People seem to be making snap judgements based on their prior distribution of expectations.

You really can't make hard judgements based on how realizations differ from you expectations of how things will turn out, if those expectations are not founded on data (as is the case with new characters).

Once a match between two previously seen, stable characters defies expectations, then you should try and search for explanations. Otherwise, the simplest explanation would tend to be "our expectations based on no data were wrong".
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