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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 161
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:27:06 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, there is Aeris/Sora. Forgot about that one. Still, I think it's a different case from the others.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: creativename | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:27:22 PM | Message Detail
Note that the optimal value for Sephiroth did come out to be 42.9989%, which rounds to the attractive value of 43.00%. A fortunate coincidence.
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www.SC2K5.com
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:28:20 PM | Message Detail
If we assume that Magus would still beat Ganondorf, then those stats would have Magus right on Crono's ***...and ahead of Mario. That's hard to believe.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:29:10 PM | Message Detail
Well, I think it's safe to say that Nintendo has grown in strength this year. It can't be a coincidence that the first two matches got so many more votes than this one is, and this one doesn't have a real Nintendo character in it.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:30:22 PM | Message Detail
Zero did make his debut on SNES and Hayabusa debuted on the NES, but they're probably more renowned for being on other systems now...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:31:02 PM | Message Detail
Hence my inclusion of the word "real" before Nintendo. :P
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: sidharta | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:32:01 PM | Message Detail
Note that the optimal value for Sephiroth did come out to be 42.9989%, which rounds to the attractive value of 43.00%. A fortunate coincidence.

Is that against 2k3 Link or 2k4 Link?

Because if it's 2k4 Link, then Samus has no chance against him.

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Posts without a sig looks ugly, so I guess I need something here.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:32:22 PM | Message Detail
2K3 Link.....
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: sidharta | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:35:13 PM | Message Detail
2K3 Link.....

Bah, I guess Sephy vs. Samus might be a toss-up this time around.

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Posts without a sig looks ugly, so I guess I need something here.
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:35:38 PM | Message Detail
Samus isn't getting anywhere near Sephiroth.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: Dranze | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:35:42 PM | Message Detail
I say, wait until Mega Man's match with Conker to see if there's any sign of underperformance.
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Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero Points: 1/2 Rank: 1/2
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:37:32 PM | Message Detail
Well, someone could still blame it on Conker: Live and Reloaded.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: creativename | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:38:07 PM | Message Detail
I am in disbelief that we are discussing "vote ceilings".

Anybody that honestly believes in them should be duly embarrassed with themselves.
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www.SC2K5.com
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:38:52 PM | Message Detail
You know what matches I kill for after looking at those adjusted SpC2k5 stats: Gannondorf vs Sonic/Mega Man, Bowser vs Magus/Snake (YAH WERE GETTING ONE), and of course Sephiroth vs Samus.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:39:44 PM | Message Detail
Bowser vs Magus/Snake (YAH WERE GETTING ONE)

Actually, I think it will be a Snake/Ryu rematch.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 2/3 points
Current Match Prediction: Lloyd Irving vs. Albert Wesker
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:40:08 PM | Message Detail
You can think what you want, doesnt make it true.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:40:25 PM | Message Detail
It'll be a Snake/Tidus matchup, baby.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Mariofreak1216 | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:41:08 PM | Message Detail
Mario vs. Conker! final match! I can see it now!
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:41:42 PM | Message Detail
I thought the idea of vote ceilings went out the window when CATS got more votes than all of his past performances combined against Ansem.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: Tediz247 | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:42:07 PM | Message Detail
From: Mariofreak1216 | Posted: 7/21/2005 9:41:08 PM | #368
Mario vs. Conker! final match! I can see it now!

You, sir, win at life.
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That... was her final mission. And like a true soldier, she saw it through the end.
ZSB [aX]
From: Dranze | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:42:41 PM | Message Detail
Well, someone could still blame it on Conker: Live and Reloaded.

..Jesus Christ..well, how about Yoshi?
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Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero Points: 1/2 Rank: 1/2
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:43:39 PM | Message Detail
Anti-voting prevents vote ceilings from ever existing.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:44:05 PM | Message Detail
Yoshi lost to Link, we don't know how much he was SFFed.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:44:19 PM | Message Detail
If people bought Mega Man/Link SFF, then I dont see why Mega Man/Yoshi SFF is that farther off. Seriously, its all BS.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:44:44 PM | Message Detail
..Jesus Christ..well, how about Yoshi?

By that time, we'll know that Yoshi is stronger than the XS predict. :p
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:45:22 PM | Message Detail
I didn't flat-out suggest a vote ceiling, but...yeah, I do believe that 60,000+ votes is a bit much to expect out of Lloyd. Unless he was up against Tanner or Ms. Pac-Man. >_>
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: Dranze | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:45:22 PM | Message Detail
Give me a break. :( I'm now going to be lost in wonder whether or not Mega Man will beat Sonic or not.
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Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero Points: 1/2 Rank: 1/2
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:45:23 PM | Message Detail
Mega Man's glory days were on the NES. Yoshi's were not. So, uh...No SFF?

Still we ought to get a small idea of where Yoshi stands after facing Ocelot.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Dranze | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:47:26 PM | Message Detail
Another thought would be to see..if Solid Snake was effected.
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Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero Points: 1/2 Rank: 1/2
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:47:36 PM | Message Detail
Link's glory days werent on the NES either.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:48:13 PM | Message Detail
Another thought would be to see..if Solid Snake was effected.

Blah blah, MGS3, blah blah.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:48:16 PM | Message Detail
Well, Link was around then. Yoshi wasn't.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Dranze | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:49:05 PM | Message Detail
Oh screw it all.
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Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero Points: 1/2 Rank: 1/2
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:49:15 PM | Message Detail
Plus, there's Zelda being gone for a year, Vivi being behind a wall of SFF, as was Alucard. Sora was clean, so we can hope for that.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:49:29 PM | Message Detail
So then Mega Man would SFF such characters as Solid Snake and Ryu Hayabusa?
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: Adept_Of_Aiur | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:50:12 PM | Message Detail
So then Mega Man would SFF such characters as Solid Snake and Ryu Hayabusa?

Er.

No. Solid Snake is known for his PS2 days, and I think Ryu is more known for XBox than NES to casual people.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119
From: Dranze | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:50:43 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:51:07 PM | Message Detail
And Link is more known for his N64 days. Hell you could argue his NES games are two of his least popular ones. (Not by sales at the time, but common opinion now).
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: creativename | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:51:30 PM | Message Detail
NOBODY EXPECTS THE MvC2 SFF!
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www.SC2K5.com
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:51:42 PM | Message Detail
Doesn't really matter. Link has always been Nintendo.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: NewLib | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:52:15 PM | Message Detail
How about Samus then. Samus/Mega Man SFF?
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia
From: transience | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:52:16 PM | Message Detail
eh, I voted for Ryu today thanks to his NES ninja gaiden titles. I'm probably not casual, though.
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From: BeTheMan | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:52:34 PM | Message Detail
I think people will realize how accurate Snake's 2k4 unadjusted number is after Vivi has his way with him.

*ducks and covers*
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: creativename | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:52:51 PM | Message Detail
Oh, wait...Ryu Hayabusa. I thought he was talking about SF Ryu. Never mind ;)
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www.SC2K5.com
From: sidharta | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:55:56 PM | Message Detail
Samus isn't getting anywhere near Sephiroth.

Samus is 42.36% on 2k3 Link, pretty close to Sephy's optimal number of 43.00% IMO.

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Posts without a sig looks ugly, so I guess I need something here.
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/21/2005 7:55:59 PM | Message Detail
But that probably wont happen. Any poll taker will tell you that. The larger the sample size is the less and less in the change per say 1000 votes becomes. Thats way a few thousand people can accurately represent an entire nation.

While I agree with what you're saying (it's true and all), I still refuse to believe GameFAQs accurately represented any of the three Mario/Crono matches.

I thought the idea of vote ceilings went out the window when CATS got more votes than all of his past performances combined against Ansem.

Beat me to it.


As a side-note, I just got done reading over 400 posts by you guys. On days I work, please, I beg of you...slow the hell down. =P
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.
From: transience | Posted: 7/21/2005 8:00:53 PM | Message Detail
you need a job where you get paid to read stats topics. these days make work fly.
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From: Yesmar | Posted: 7/21/2005 8:07:12 PM | Message Detail
Golden Sun: 743K
Paper Mario: ~800K (IIRC)
Paper Mario 2: 626K
Mario and Luigi: 961K
Tales of Symphonia: ~300K



This is completely irrelevant now, but the original Paper Mario only sold like 425,000 copies in NA.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire
From: cyko | Posted: 7/21/2005 8:10:11 PM | Message Detail
apparently, this guy is currently #19 on the leaderboard and he is truly awesome:

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/detail.php?board=8&topic=22351160&message=242430268

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Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer
is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!
From: transience | Posted: 7/21/2005 8:12:23 PM | Message Detail
speaking of, where is fedor?

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