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Contest Stats and Discussion - Part 161
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:11:27 PM | Message Detail
Despite the haters (which I think are in higher proportion on this board, anyway), Lloyd's one of the more popular characters from Tales of Symphonia just because he's so fun to use in combat. Trust me, if Tidus and Squall get any "hate" backlash, I'm sure Lloyd's would be much less in comparison.

I actually liked his dumbass overly optimistic character, not just because he was fun to use in combat. But I'm all but alone with that here... heh.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:12:38 PM | Message Detail
Lloyd's one of the more popular characters from Tales of Symphonia just because he's so fun to use in combat.

That's true. Lloyd's a blast to use in combat for me 'cause he's just so fast, and he has some nifty special attacks.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:15:31 PM | Message Detail
I can't help but think that the pic WILL play a factor...

Badass army dude with shades versus Lloyd's profile that has a suggestive stare....

Brackets may be in Wesker's favor as well, although Ness/CJ proved that the average bracketmaker is getting smarter.
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:17:33 PM | Message Detail
Nah, can't see Wesker being the bracket favorite at all. I'm sure a lot of them paid attention to the Spring Contest, at least a little bit.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:21:04 PM | Message Detail
i'll say it again - Tales of Symphonia is the biggest RPG to be on a Nintendo console since Chrono Trigger. seriously, think about it. you had the Mario RPGs, which are popular on GameFAQS, but never had the sales or widespread popularity as Tales.

Both Paper Mario games and Mario and Luigi demolished ToS in sales. So did Golden Sun, and possibly Earthbound, although I have no idea how EB did.

Golden Sun: 743K
Paper Mario: ~800K (IIRC)
Paper Mario 2: 626K
Mario and Luigi: 961K
Tales of Symphonia: ~300K

All as of May/June and in the US.

As for SoA...I WISH I could remember how well it sold...all that's coming to mind is 220K on GCN and 170K on DC, but I'm not sure that's right.

...Didn't Tales of Symphonia do better in the GCN GotY poll than Paper Mario 2 did?

Just like FFX did better in an overall GotY poll than SSBM did.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:22:58 PM | Message Detail
That's not to say that Final Fantasy X still couldn't beat SSBM in a rematch, or that it wasn't more popular at the time. Remember that FFX was voted as the 2nd most popular FF shortly after it was released, surpassing FFVI.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:25:47 PM | Message Detail
Lloyd's gonna have a rather sizable bracket advantage. Mithos had around as much or maybe a tad more bracket support to beat Kefka in the Spring Contest than Wesker did (it can't really be known how many had Luca beating Kefka).

Not to mention he's got a 2-7 seeding advantage. I'd be surprised if Lloyd didn't have 70%+ of the brackets.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: Mac Arrowny | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:26:56 PM | Message Detail
Remember that FFX was voted as the 2nd most popular FF shortly after it was released, surpassing FFVI.

...that's exactly my point. You can't trust a PotD. I believe that Halo was also above SSBM in that GotY poll.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:30:41 PM | Message Detail
Well, it's still worth considering.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:31:46 PM | Message Detail
I think that 70% is unrealistic because there is no precedent for a character from a game (or series of games) with sales figures that low putting up a mark that high. And while we could "ooo" and "ahh" at KOS-MOS breaking 60% on Crash Bandicoot, Crash could be considered marginally stronger than Wesker at best, seeing as pre-Squarexplosion Sephiroth held Crash to 18.5%.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:33:45 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:34:50 PM | Message Detail
Does anyone else find it funny that Gordon Freeman is projected to beat Wesker?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 2/3 points
Current Match Prediction: Lloyd Irving vs. Albert Wesker
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:35:14 PM | Message Detail
The sales figures aren't too low to count him out to do such a thing. The reason there's no precedent for it is because somebody with such low figures hasn't been fortunate enough to face somebody that weak (Vyse/Laharl aside, I suppose, but they're both weak regardless). You really think low sales figures could keep somebody from reaching certain percentage?
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:35:41 PM | Message Detail
I don't. Hell, with Half-Life 2, I'd take Gordon over him.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:37:11 PM | Message Detail
I'm just saying that if Lloyd loses, he'll be ranked lower than Gordon Freeman.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 2/3 points
Current Match Prediction: Lloyd Irving vs. Albert Wesker
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:38:42 PM | Message Detail
And while we could "ooo" and "ahh" at KOS-MOS breaking 60% on Crash Bandicoot, Crash could be considered marginally stronger than Wesker at best, seeing as pre-Squarexplosion Sephiroth held Crash to 18.5%.

Marginally at best? You've gotta be kidding me. Crash was at his lowest by far in 2002. He was 3 points higher in 2003.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:39:41 PM | Message Detail
Which also might be another one of those arguments in favor of FFVII "SFFing" PS characters...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:45:33 PM | Message Detail
You really think low sales figures could keep somebody from reaching certain percentage?

If vote totals stay in the 90k range? Absolutely. If ToS is around 300,000 units sold in the U.S. (where the vast majority of the voters come from), and if Lloyd needs 60,000+ votes to approach the 70% mark, then you would need:

1) A substantial portion of the people that have played ToS to come to the site tomorrow.
2) A hefty percentage of the voters that aren't familiar with either Lloyd or Wesker to side with Lloyd.

The problem with #1 is that those familiar with ToS would have to vote almost exclusively for Lloyd, which is far from guaranteed given the success that RE has had on the GC. The problem with #2 is that the match pic for Lloyd isn't going to blow anyone away.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:46:41 PM | Message Detail
A lot of stuff going on in this topic...

1. I know I sound like a broken record, but Kingdom Hearts was DESIGNED to attract FF fans. It probably didn't bring a lot of new fans like some advocates of KHF think (the sheer number of sales that FF7 and FF8 had should more than indicate that there were already a decent amount of fans already). Kingdom Hearts merely brought those fans to the site.

"No way is KHF the sole reason for the characters increasing."

Well, let's look at the 3 with the biggest increases...

Squall - Faced Snake round 1, had no way in hell of winning, probably had bracket voters against him for that, wasn't considered likable by the masses until KH.

Cloud - Faced SUPER Mario in 2k2, lost most of his ground due to Mario being on Sunshine Steroids (and maybe some PGC voters) while gianing some by looking cooler (Go, go Vincent!)

Sephiroth - Wholly underestimated by anyone who didn't have him going all the way... and the bracket... oh, and he possibly over performed on Cloud because of said hero's victory over Link.

There is a hell of a lot more to it than KHF, and none of it is due to population increase.


I've been saying that since 2k3. ChichiriMuyo probably thinks more like me than anyone else on this board.

2. Tales of Symphonia may be one of the most popular RPGs on Nintendo since Chrono Trigger, but it still isn't on a Chrono Trigger level. I bet tomorrow's match will have one of the lowest vote totals in the contest. There probably will be tons of people who are indifferent on Lloyd and Wesker due to relative obscurity when compared to the more popular characters.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:46:56 PM | Message Detail
Well, you've got bracket voting to take into consideration, too. Lloyd is sure to have the advantage, I think.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:48:11 PM | Message Detail
[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]
From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:48:23 PM | Message Detail
There probably will be tons of people who are indifferent on Lloyd and Wesker due to relative obscurity when compared to the more popular characters.

If that's true, then Kratos A. is screwed when he faces Diablo.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 2/3 points
Current Match Prediction: Lloyd Irving vs. Albert Wesker
From: BeTheMan | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:55:46 PM | Message Detail
Marginally at best? You've gotta be kidding me. Crash was at his lowest by far in 2002. He was 3 points higher in 2003.

2k2: Crash Bandicoot - 16.03% on Link
2k3: Crash Bandicoot - 17.46% on Link, 16.89% on winner Cloud
2k4: Crash was in the 20xx division, so who knows?

What I will say about 2k4 (however screwy it may have been thanks to Frog) is that Liquid = Master Chief, and MC beat Crash 70-30. From Sp2k5, Wesker projects out to nearly 33% on Liquid. Draw your own conclusions.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: yoblazer33 | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:56:58 PM | Message Detail
Here's to hoping Wesker cracks 40% and confuses the hell out of us all.

*raises jeweled goblet*
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:58:48 PM | Message Detail
2k2: Crash Bandicoot - 16.03% on Link
2k3: Crash Bandicoot - 17.46% on Link, 16.89% on winner Cloud
2k4: Crash was in the 20xx division, so who knows?

What I will say about 2k4 (however screwy it may have been thanks to Frog) is that Liquid = Master Chief, and MC beat Crash 70-30. From Sp2k5, Wesker projects out to nearly 33% on Liquid. Draw your own conclusions.


Crash was in the West Division in 2002.

Don't use the Spring Contest for ANYTHING on Liquid Snake, please.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:58:51 PM | Message Detail
If vote totals stay in the 90k range? Absolutely. If ToS is around 300,000 units sold in the U.S. (where the vast majority of the voters come from), and if Lloyd needs 60,000+ votes to approach the 70% mark, then you would need:

1) A substantial portion of the people that have played ToS to come to the site tomorrow.
2) A hefty percentage of the voters that aren't familiar with either Lloyd or Wesker to side with Lloyd.


If any thing, this will just mean that the total votes tommorow won't be very high. Vote ceilings don't exist. IIRC Panzer Dragoon Saga get a lot more votes than it had total sales in the Spring 2004 Contest.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/21/2005 5:59:29 PM | Message Detail
So did Golden Sun

Golden sun and Lario and luigi were on the gba, not a console.

and possibly Earthbound

Earthbound came out quite a bit before CT if I'm not mistaken. I'm only assuming so however because CT has the graphics of a late SNES game, and earthbound has the graphics of an early SNES game.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:01:25 PM | Message Detail
IIRC Panzer Dragoon Saga get a lot more votes than it had total sales in the Spring 2004 Contest.

To add to this, I'm pretty sure Luca blight got more votes against wesker then his game had sales.
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From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:02:48 PM | Message Detail
I don't think Luca Blight got THAT many votes. However, we can probably assume that there is a significant number who have played Suikoden II through emulation rather than actually purchasing the game itself.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:03:49 PM | Message Detail
I don't think Lloyd will have a "vote ceiling". For a few reasons.

1. RPG players are the type that are more likely to be here in the first place. RPGs tend to be the games that would cause people to come to such a site.
2. You're assuming those votes come from 90000 unique people... yeah it'd be nice, but that's not the case.
3. Foreign votes, while a minority, are enough to be considered. I'd bet that 10000 votes come from foreign sources (maybe I'm totally off).
4. Bracket votes and just indifferent votes will add to Lloyd's vote total.

1/5 - 1/6th of the US owners of ToS knowing of this site would be enough for me to not even consider Lloyd to have a vote ceiling. It doesn't seem too unlikely to me.
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:06:06 PM | Message Detail
I don't think Luca Blight got THAT many votes.

I heard before that it was something around the 20k mark in sales. Was that incorrect?
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From: Draco1214 | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:07:34 PM | Message Detail
I don't think tomorrow's match will break 80,000 votes.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 2/3 points
Current Match Prediction: Lloyd Irving vs. Albert Wesker
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:07:56 PM | Message Detail
I thought it was somewhere between 60-70k, but someone will have to confirm that.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:09:01 PM | Message Detail
3. Foreign votes, while a minority, are enough to be considered. I'd bet that 10000 votes come from foreign sources (maybe I'm totally off).

That seems like a fairly conservative number actually, but I'm fairly certain that "American sales" for games also include What it sells in Canada (since it's actually north american sales), and a good deal of the foreigners on gamefaqs (myself included) are Canadian.
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From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:10:45 PM | Message Detail
I don't think tomorrow's match will break 80,000 votes.

I don't think people not knowing who either character is stops them from voting, but I could be wrong. I know I've voted in a good deal of polls where I haven't played the game either character are from.
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From: BeTheMan | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:11:12 PM | Message Detail
1. RPG players are the type that are more likely to be here in the first place. RPGs tend to be the games that would cause people to come to such a site.

Mostly true...though there is the GTA thing, among other examples.

2. You're assuming those votes come from 90000 unique people... yeah it'd be nice, but that's not the case.

Again true, but the number of vote stuffers should decrease provided that the match isn't overly competitive.

3. Foreign votes, while a minority, are enough to be considered. I'd bet that 10000 votes come from foreign sources (maybe I'm totally off).

*nod* But they wouldn't be coming in exclusively for Lloyd either.

4. Bracket votes and just indifferent votes will add to Lloyd's vote total.

Somewhat.

1/5 - 1/6th of the US owners of ToS knowing of this site would be enough for me to not even consider Lloyd to have a vote ceiling. It doesn't seem too unlikely to me.

It's not just knowing about the site, it's that they would have to come to it on the day of the poll and vote for Lloyd while they are here. It's a somewhat different beast.
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ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?
From: therealmnm | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:11:34 PM | Message Detail
Badass army dude with shades versus Lloyd's profile that has a suggestive stare....

Wesker does not look badass... RYU HAYABUSA looks badass. Wesker looks like a random dude (Hello Tanner?). If you didn't know who Wesker was, I could hardly see why you would vote for him. If you think Wesker looks badass enough for people to vote for him, then Agent 47 might shock us all (/sarcasm).

Seriously, Lloyd at least has the anime look going for him. If Mithos can get some votes against Kefka, then I don't see why Lloyd couldn't against Wesker. That theory that Lloyd can't get 60,000 votes due to ToS not selling enough is interesting. But I have to add that even though I bought ToS a week ago, I would have voted for Lloyd BEFORE then just due to the sheer hype and talk I've heard about ToS, since I'm indifferent to Wesker.
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Graduation: April 30, 2005 "There are only 10 kinds of people in this world, those that read binary and those that don't."
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:13:36 PM | Message Detail
I'm inclined to agree there. A blank stare does not necessarily look cool to those who don't know who Wesker is.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:13:48 PM | Message Detail
Weskers pic is in the same style as CJ's so I wouldn't say he has much of an advantage with it, especially since Lloyd's pic probably appeals to a larger crowd then a watermelon head.
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From: ChichiriMuyo | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:14:02 PM | Message Detail
Sui 2 was 90k, IIRC. Plus, sales don't matter much, PDS got 2.5-3 as many votes as there were copies sold in the US.
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"
From: dragoontheguy | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:15:04 PM | Message Detail
Sui 2 was 90k

Wow, I was way off. Maybe I should stop discussing game sales seeing as almost all of my information is second hand >_>.
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From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:15:55 PM | Message Detail
Well, I have awful taste for what it's worth....

I'm either hoping Wesker wins or that Lloyd dominates on him and gives hope to the Kratos upset over Diablo.

A ho-hum match will just annoy me...
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: Aprosenf | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:15:58 PM | Message Detail
Earthbound came out quite a bit before CT if I'm not mistaken. I'm only assuming so however because CT has the graphics of a late SNES game, and earthbound has the graphics of an early SNES game.

According to GameFAQs, Chrono Trigger came out on 9/27/95 in North America, and Earthbound came out some time in 1995 (no month or day given, though it came out on 8/27/94 in Japan, compared with 3/11/95 for CT in Japan).
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener
From: MegatokyoEd | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:17:28 PM | Message Detail
Lloyd dominating Wesker will hardly make Kratos over Diablo look any better. Lloyd should dominate a weakling like Wesker.
From: dethfdddddh | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:18:56 PM | Message Detail
I just can't win tonight.
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Volgin is one sexy beast....
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:20:29 PM | Message Detail
Well, if Lloyd triples Wesker somehow, then that makes ToS in general look better and better.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:26:27 PM | Message Detail
Hayabusa is creeping closer and closer to 37% on Zero.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno
From: Undeniable | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:31:41 PM | Message Detail
We need Wesker's Code: Veronica art Dammit!
~~~
"[Zelos] clearly should be writing in his book of dark poetry and slitting his wrists with a cruxis crystal - meisnewbie
From: Garsha | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:32:45 PM | Message Detail
According to SSBM, Earthbound's date is June 1995.
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Look at my Winter Contest 2K4/2K5 Analysis Fanfic: http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/gentopic.php?board=579546
End of message. ~ Garsha
From: Lopen | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:33:55 PM | Message Detail
Okay then, 1/5th-1/6th of the US people who own ToS visit the site on the day of Lloyd's match. I still don't think it's that unreasonable.

Man... Hayabusa has come so close to winning some of these updates... he's gotta win one...!
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Raiden fact of the contest: Alucard is a plagiarist, this year Raiden will prove it!
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