You know the Tales.Namco boards with a few thousand users?

We could soooo get their help.

>_>
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Wait, you're putting the Count that low? You suck.

Hey, don't forget that we haven't seen the Count in a while. Maybe if his rumored playable role in Sesame Street: Counting Evolved pans out, he'll do better.
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The two halves of the Yorae Dragon duel once more in Godlike... which will survive? Find out at www.rpgdl.com.

http://img75.echo.cx/img75/8269/auronbigboss0yi.jpgi

You made a small typo in the link. You need to drop the last "i"

http://img75.echo.cx/img75/8269/auronbigboss0yi.jpg
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Gah.

Sowwy.

It still should be his picture. Big Boss' I mean.

Mo' like, AurOWNED.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

I'm predicting 70% on Wesker for Lloyd. If he does manage more, then it will prove my theory that Lloyd > Kefka.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 2/3 points
Current Match Prediction: Lloyd Irving vs. Albert Wesker

A quick note on Lloyd - Wesker. I know some pretty hardcore Tales of Symphonia fans, and they seem to have a love/hate relationship with Lloyd at best, or loathe him at worst. They love the game, they like the other characters, but really don't give a damn about the main character. This is pretty small group admittedly, so I don't know how representative they are of Tales of Symphonia fans in general, but I would not be surprised if Lloyd underpreformed tomorrow.

Two posts replying to my comment, ha ha ha!
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"

If Lloyd doesn't do better than Kefka did against Wesker, he=flop. Period. Mithos would be expected to get over 55% on Wesker, I think. And he's pretty much MIA for 80% of the game.
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

They probably only loathe Lloyd in the context of the game.

I'll be damned if 'hardcore' ToS fans would completely shove their support over to Wesker just because they don't like Lloyd's personality in the game. He will represent ToS for the most part, and therefore he will get the votes.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Lloyd has the same relationship with his fans that Tidus has. Tidus seems to do pretty well regardless.
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Lloyd vs. Vyse. Go, go.

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A E I OWN U

Lloyd, easily.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Lloyd. Mithos and Vyse aren't that far apart.
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Ugh, Lloyd would beat Vyse, and pretty easily at that. Disgusting, to say the least.

At the 15:10 mark, this match has 66,031 votes.

Mario/Joanna Dark: 72,161
Ness/CJ: 72,518
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I'm surprised this match is doing so much worse.

It's because Nintendo is so awesome and gets all the votes because they're so awesomely vote-getting.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

It's a fully one-sided afair featuring a character not on the level of Mario. That'd make it a low vote turnout. Tomorrow's match will be low too, unless we have estimated one of the two (or likely both) wrong. Saturday though... that should be a good one.
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"

At least Zero's % is dropping like a brick.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

It's a fully one-sided afair featuring a character not on the level of Mario.

Last I checked, Ness isn't either.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

That doesn't necessarily mean good things for Ryu H. Of course, whatever it does mean we won't know for a month and a half when Zero goes against Mario.
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"

Last I checked, Ness isn't either.

Close matches tend to get more votes then huge blowouts.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

For reference, Ryu Hayabusa is expected to get 36.22% on unadjusted Zero and 32.60% on 20XX adjusted Zero. He currently has 36.81%.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

And yesterday's match wasn't completely one sided. We knew there was no chance for a comeback after an hour, casual voters aren't even aware that 3000 votes is an insurmountable barrier. If you don't follow the contest like we do (and how mnay people can we reasonably expect to figure out what the biggest comeback is and which characters perform best when that aren't part of this board?) you wouldn't know a comeback was impossible until the match was more than half over. Hmm, looks like the votes were stacked to the first half. Sounds reasonable to me.
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"

It may be a bad thing for Zero, which is why I'm happy that his % is dropping.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

*Note for those of you that don't read (I know you're out there, always ready to say stupid crap to annoy me): I am not saying Ness had a 3k vote lead within an hour, I'm saying he had enough of a lead and day vote advantage assuring us that he'd have that lead without issue.
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"

Well, if Ryu does indeed keep performing like he currently is, either the unadjusted Zero stats were correct, or Ryu had a massive gain.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

I can't understand why people would want certain characters to drop. Even my most hated characters (say, Master Chief) don't need to fall in popularity... I just wish my favorites would be higher. I understand hate, I can't understand wanting to see a character get smashed on a basis of their lacking merit as opposed to the opposition having it.
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"

Its a little bit of both. I think Zero WAS SFFd and 20XX Factor doesnt exist.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Well, we'll have to wait until Mario to see if this is due to the Ninja Gaiden picture or if the 20XX stats were correct. If it's due to the picture, then he should've beaten Jill with 53.71% and gotten 41.34% on Sora.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

You can't really compare 2004 and 2005, there's too big a voter turnout difference.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Yeah you can. A voter turnout increase could conceivably have no effect at all if the gained voters just vote the same way the old ones did. There is nothing so far that would lead me to believe that isnt happening.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Well, you've seen how percentages change as the vote totals go up during the day. It generally shouldn't cause that much of a difference with the higher vote totals this year.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

You assume that all the old voters are still voting, you assume there hasn't been a large population shift on Gamefaqs, you assume that no one can change their opinion and on top of that you assume that everybody is voting exactly the same as was being done a year ago?

That's a hell of a lot of things to assume.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

If we go by the Jill match won't Ryu H drop a good ammount before this is over?
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"

Regardless, percentages should not change drastically merely due to higher vote totals.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

You assume this will help Mario, whats your point? Fact is you have no proof that voting trends are any different. Mario got around where we thought he would on Joanna. I dont know how lesser vote totals would of helped CJ. Ryu/Zero is coming down perfectly if you believe that MM/Zero SFF exists and the 20XX factor is a bunch of bull.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

They could though, and you have to account for that.

If 30000 new people are voting each time, then pottentialy you could have 20000 of them voting for one character, and 10000 voting for the other, on top of the old voters, who may not even be voting in the first place.

That could change things quite a bit.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

And yesterday's match wasn't completely one sided. We knew there was no chance for a comeback after an hour, casual voters aren't even aware that 3000 votes is an insurmountable barrier. If you don't follow the contest like we do (and how mnay people can we reasonably expect to figure out what the biggest comeback is and which characters perform best when that aren't part of this board?) you wouldn't know a comeback was impossible until the match was more than half over. Hmm, looks like the votes were stacked to the first half. Sounds reasonable to me.

It followed a pattern that made the Spring Contest dull at parts. One character gets a lead early on, then simply builds it over the next 23.5 hours or so. Diablo/Ridley was a bore due to this despite being hyped up so much.
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Today's subliminal thought is:

It could, but we would've seen that from 2002 to 2003, and there wasn't much difference.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

But that probably wont happen. Any poll taker will tell you that. The larger the sample size is the less and less in the change per say 1000 votes becomes. Thats way a few thousand people can accurately represent an entire nation.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

You assume this will help Mario, whats your point? Fact is you have no proof that voting trends are any different. Mario got around where we thought he would on Joanna. I dont know how lesser vote totals would of helped CJ. Ryu/Zero is coming down perfectly if you believe that MM/Zero SFF exists and the 20XX factor is a bunch of bull.

I wasn't actually arguing about Mario at that point. Just Hayabusa.

And we do have proof that voting trends are different: a lot more people are voting. That will change things.

And lesser vote totals could help CJ, depending on who'se voting.

Ryu/Zero is coming out perfectly, if you account for things that you can't actually prove scientificaly, due to the polls not being fair tests? Hell of an achievement.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

You assume that all the old voters are still voting, you assume there hasn't been a large population shift on Gamefaqs, you assume that no one can change their opinion and on top of that you assume that everybody is voting exactly the same as was being done a year ago?

That's a hell of a lot of things to assume.

We have to assume a few things because we technically can't prove anything until it actually happens. However just waiting and seeing for everything isn't particularly entertaining so we discuss what we do have even if it isn't 100% solid.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

It could, but we would've seen that from 2002 to 2003, and there wasn't much difference.

There was a large difference in results for quite a few characters, namely the Square bunch, and a few others. That could easily be attributed to the ammount of people voting, on top of other factors.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

We have to assume a few things because we technically can't prove anything until it actually happens. However just waiting and seeing for everything isn't particularly entertaining so we discuss what we do have even if it isn't 100% solid.

I know, all I'm doing is discussing is whether we should be assuming things, and over-analysing them. Another facet of discussion is all it is :)
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

There was a large difference in results for quite a few characters, namely the Square bunch,

Characters increase when they have a reason to increase, such as new releases. The FF bunch had Kingdom Hearts.

Cloud would have destroyed Mario in 2003, but Cloud/Mario 2002 is still in the top 10 for most votes in a single match, and Mario won. You really can't blame those huge increases on vote totals.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/21/2005 6:49:04 PM | Message Detail
You assume that all the old voters are still voting, you assume there hasn't been a large population shift on Gamefaqs, you assume that no one can change their opinion and on top of that you assume that everybody is voting exactly the same as was being done a year ago?

You have to understand that you are looking at this totally unscientifically, and backwards. You always have to assume simplicity, and prove complexity. A shift in voting would necessitate a new factor, which means greater complexity.

We've never really seen evidence of systematic voting shifts anyway, outside of the hypothesize Square 2003 run. Which might have had nothing to do with vote totals, but simply been a popular year for them.

That year people came up with the looney idea that Cloud, Sephiroth, and Squall's huge increases were due to "new voters" preferring him. When this was totally assinine as in the Sephiroth/Mega Man rematch, pretty much every single "new voter" would've had to vote Sephiroth for that logic to work. Clearly there was a shift in voting trends, not new voters being intrinsically different than old voters. So this is a long discredited idea.
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www.SC2K5.com

But like I said, it's not only the vote totals that will matter, but who'se doing the voting. So just because the difference in the total votes is similair, doesn't mean it's the same people voting.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Cloud, Squall, and Aeris all had very legit reasons to take a big jump.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

When this was totally assinine as in the Sephiroth/Mega Man rematch, pretty much every single "new voter" would've had to vote Sephiroth for that logic to work.

All but 16, if I recall correctly.

I do agree that changes in the voter pool can affect character strength, but I don't think it'd be anything drastic.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

"That's a hell of a lot of things to assume."

Fortunately as a whole those assumptions tend to be correct. Shifts do happen, but in general it's not enough to throw out expectations out the window.
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"