Holy crap. Check this out.

Zero 150% 3
Ryu Hayabusa 0% 0
TOTAL VOTES 2

Zero owns.
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When you get upset, remember it takes 42 muscles to frown, but only 4 to extend your middle finger.

Nice guess, Ulti.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Holy almost completely even bracket spilt Batman!!!
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

only got 51st vote man i'm slow
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Zero 80.26% 61
Ryu Hayabusa 19.74% 15
TOTAL VOTES 76

Yesterday I got 100... I'm getting better.
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*is naked*

Ness with 51.9%, I WIN!

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A E I OWN U

And I bet you very few of those 51.9% ever had a legitimate chance at winning this contest. Most of the "pros" around here were convinced CJ would win.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

Something tells me that a whole hell of a lot of those people are of the "always go with the higher seed" variety. They'll all drop after Frog wins.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Well, this explains why Ness won. He had ****ing overwhelming bracket support.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Leonhart at #1 on the leaderboard. Cool.

I recognize a speedrunner on the leaderboard: Your Eliteness, a talented Perfect Dark player.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

wow, that's a lot of Ness love. I love the leaderboard - Leonhart #1! and someone with Kefka in the top 50.
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And I bet you very few of those 51.9% ever had a legitimate chance at winning this contest. Most of the "pros" around here were convinced CJ would win.

Agreed. The higher that Ness prediction percentage would have been, the happier I would have been.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Zero 70.6% 353
Ryu Hayabusa 29.4% 147
TOTAL VOTES 500


Abvove 70%
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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th

Kneel before your master!

1 LeonhartForever 2 Squall Leonhart
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

*claps*
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

heh, I totally missed Leon being in there too. people filled out their favourites brackets quick this year.
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Who is that douche bag at the top of the leader board?

>>
<<

>>;;;
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Kneel before a bracket guaranteed to fail? I'll pass, heh.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Look at the champ picks now. It's a flood of Crono and Mario.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Zero vs. Ryu H. - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (1/2)

After a quick glimpse at the stats, it would seem that Mario vs Crono 4 is not as bad an idea as some might think. There's a ton of Mario/Crono support on the leaderboard.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

This match could actually land fairly close to where the Stats predicted it would.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Zero 68.9% 689
Ryu Hayabusa 31.1% 311
TOTAL VOTES 1000

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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th

Kneel before a bracket guaranteed to fail? I'll pass, heh.

Kneel before a bracket with the best character in the contest at #1, even if it is only destined to be short-lived.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Same time post, same time content.

^5s Moltar IMHO

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Maybe having Mario/Crono IV might not be a bad idea...
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

*kneels before Leonhart*

MASTER! MASTER! MAAAAAAAASTEEEEEER!!

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When you get upset, remember it takes 42 muscles to frown, but only 4 to extend your middle finger.

is it me or are we getting faster ands faster to 1000 votes
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

They're all going to be so disappointed when Samus beats both Mario and Crono.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

is it me or are we getting faster ands faster to 1000 votes

You could, ya know, check...
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Zero looked impressive in the first few minutes, but now he's right around where he's supposed to be. Board vote favored him, I suppose.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/21/2005 2:08:04 AM | #378
They're all going to be so disappointed when Samus beats both Mario and Crono.

True dat.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Zero vs. Ryu H. - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (1/2)

I hope this match does end up close to what it was predicted by the stats to be. Been a long time since we could say the stats predicted a matchup fairly correctly.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Well, I'm off to bed. Tata.

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Explicit Content, having fun, not being warned.
Cheer Up Emo Kids.

is it me or are we getting faster ands faster to 1000 votes

And for the record, we had 1,000 votes about 7 minutes in yesterday. I think the first ten minutes are always the same.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Score-Brackets-% Right
1------32619----52.0923388
0------1174-----46.4224872

51.9% prediction rate?! The BOP, got what? 10-15%? We got owned, badly. But it was by Ness so it's all good. =D

33 people fell off the Top 50 today. The follwoing people did not have Ness over CJ: _IONO_, RockMFR, Paratroopa1, UnButcher, Draco1214, Invisa, DomaDragoon, HolyExcalibur, Baffled_Flask, YourMortal, LegendaryVyse, AsheDalmasca, Jericoholic913, Allison_Pryce, CloudandSquall, Leonhart4, TheS3hasYou, CaribouNinja, Celes_, dscotton, MegatokyoED, Celes42, linktheripper56, Mac_Arrowny, 0___o, Adam_Epp, Jesse1221, ThePeepsShow, PIcaRDMPC, PurpleOutsider, LiquidAmerica, EatPieOrDie and Perfect_Bracket who is no longer perfect after just two rounds.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: Lucid Faia | Posted: 7/21/2005 3:08:04 AM | Message Detail | #378
They're all going to be so disappointed when Samus beats both Mario and Crono.

Except that I highly doubt she will.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Don't forget that Ryu has the Xbox vote to look forward to after the votes stabilize for the night-time.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I really dont think Ryu going to make huge gains during the day.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Perfect_Bracket who is no longer perfect after just two rounds.

How ironic.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Don't forget that Ryu has the Xbox vote to look forward to after the votes stabilize for the night-time.

Oh yeah, Ryu DOES have the after school vote.
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"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

How much is Zero expected to win by?
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

I think Samus can match Sephiroth. Obviously, I'm not worried about Crono. I'm not buying the SFF theory when it comes to Mario, either.

---
2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

From: NewLib | Posted: 7/21/2005 2:39:14 AM | Message Detail
Least square differences how are those numbers produced? Whats the formula.

By adjusting one year's values by some scalar that will minimize the sum of squared difference between entrants over the two years. With some exclusions, e.g. for SFF.

I'll try to give a simple example. Say you have characters Cookie Monster, Big Bird, Grover, The Count, Snuffleupagus, and Oscar in a series of polls. Say that these are the X-stats from Year 1:

Big Bird 50%
Cookie Monster 48%
The Count 42%
Oscar 39%
Snuffleupagus 39%
Grover 38%

And from Year 2:

Cookie Monster 50%
Big Bird 42%
The Count 35%
Oscar 33%
Grover 35%
Snuffleupagus 22%

Let's also say that Snuffleupagus faced Big Bird in Year 2, and suffered massive SFF due to being his best friend. So we'll ignore his values completely during our calculations.

I'll put this in Excel terms. In some Excel cell, we have some constant value; and we have another column of values: the second year's values multiplied by this scalar. What we are interested in is the squared difference between this column, and the first.

e.g., if the scalar was 1.1, the difference for Big Bird would be:

(50% - 42%*1.1)^2 = .001444

We would repeat this for all non-Snuffleupagus characters and sum it up. The objective is to minimize this sum by changing the scalar.

In this example, the scalar becomes 1.103. This results in the following Adjusted X-Stats for Year 2:

Cookie Monster 55.15%
Big Bird 46.32%
Snuffleupagus 43.01%
The Count 38.60%
Grover 38.05%
Oscar 36.40%

Snuffleupagus' Year 1 value is multiplied by the scalar here. Note that in this example, the scalar ends up being basically the same as keeping Grover constant across years.

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www.SC2K5.com

Samus will fight it out with Sephiroth, and she very well could win...but I think she's gonna be just short.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

For the record, Zero is projected to get 65.93% on Hayabusa. After 15 minutes, he has 66.09%. Not bad.
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It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

My oracle prediction is 65.01%

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A E I OWN U

After 15 minutes, he has 66.09%. Not bad.

3 minutes later, he's fallen a full percent...ouch.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Zero vs. Ryu H. - Bracket: Zero - Vote: Zero (1/2)

Umm...Go Ninja Go Ninja Go?

;o)
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www.SC2K5.com

Well, the worse Zero does, the better that makes Sonic look against Mega Man...I think. Regardless, the board vote definitely favored Zero and it has worn off.
---
It's just not the same without this name.
Faithful supporter of Squall Leonhart in SC2K5

Would Zero doing worse than expected really affect Sonic/Mega Man? I mean, they both faced him.....
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.