Neither does Kefka or CJ.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

At the 22:30 mark, this match has 97,041 votes.

Mario/Joanna: 96,659
Cloud/Samus: 98,562
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

This match is about 500 votes ahead of yesterday's. It won't reach 100,000 if it doesn't pick up the pace a little bit.

Heh...It'll probably get to 99500. ANd then third time will be the charm.
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"Opinions are like butts, little girl. Everyone's got one and nobody thinks their's stink." -Lunar 2:EB
*Claims KG's Eclair & Millia Rage*

If this match doesn't break 100k, I guarantee Zero/Hayabusa will. Book it.

Lloyd/Wesker will be the lowest total of the division, I predict.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

If you really want to go on thinking that Luigi can actually beat Tifa, be my guest. Personally, I'll be shocked if he breaks 45% on her. He'll probably do far worse.

~*ST*~
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Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

Now watch this poll pick up a bit and end at 999xx...
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/21/2005 1:33:29 AM | Message Detail
Neither does Kefka or CJ.

With Kefka, it's true; but I don't think it is with CJ. His game has a lot of exposure on GameFAQs, but I don't think he does. That was part of my reasoning for Ness.

Anyway, I think trying to argue for Luigi>Tifa might be a waste of energy. I can't foresee Tifa having any problems in that match. I don't think KOS-MOS is a very good upset pick either, but she's very likely a better pick to beat Luigi than Luigi is to beat Tifa.
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www.SC2K5.com

Did Luigi have more brackets picking him or Yoshi?
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Yoshi had 43.86%, so he must've been the bracket favorite over Luigi:

http://www.sc2k5.com/drupal/node/8?fields=all&sort=pollid&type=DESC
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www.SC2K5.com

creative, is there any chance of us getting a similar added column for the Spring 2005 Contest?

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

BTW creativename, are you planning to add a "Expected % Against Link '03" column to the SpC2K5 Extrapolated Standings?
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Eventually we are going to have to give up Link 03 as what to base everyone's percentage on.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Bah. 8 seconds. ;_;
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Eventually we are going to have to give up Link 03 as what to base everyone's percentage on.

I can't see why we would. Changing the base doesn't make the numbers that much easier to work for single year comparasons with and makes comapring strength across multiple years more difficult.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Because eventually character strengths are going to change so much that you cant apply them to a character from 2003. Ryu and Mario cant stay constant forever.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Well, considering many characters have stayed rather constant from year-to-year it won't be too tough comparing them to Link 2K3 for years to come, really. Unless something drastic happens to the site, of course.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Ryu and Mario cant stay constant forever.

Especially with the Revolution coming up; Mario's not gonna be constant for much longer.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

To rephrase the first part...I mean that between any two consecutive summer contests many characters changed very little.

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"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Yes some have. But how many years will that continue? How much longer will Mario and Ryu stay constant. Then what do we do. "Well Cloud was constant from 2009-2012, Yoshi 2006-2009, Mario 2003-2006. So going through Cloud then Yoshi then Mario you get _____ on Link 2k3.

Im not saying soon, Im just pointing out sooner or later it will be pointless to base anything off of 2k3 Link.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

[This message was deleted at the request of the original poster]

Then why are people skeptical of the Spring results? That was only a few months ago (little time for significant change in a character's popularity).

Because eventually character strengths are going to change so much that you cant apply them to a character from 2003. Ryu and Mario cant stay constant forever.

And if we stick to a constant base we can see how the characters change over the years. I assume pretty much everybody here looks up the extraploated standings and uses a calculator or computer program when calculating how characters would do against each other. So having Link2k6 at something like 61.21%Link2k3 isn't particularly more difficult than basing everything off a 50% Link2k6.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Yes I understand that, but as I pointed out in the topic above the longer we do that it becomes an even longer and more difficult process. The longer a connection is attempted to be made, especially among many different characters, the less accurate it gets. I dont know why we just cant base everything off of 2k5 Cloud if he wins this year. Whats the problem updating it every once and a while to make sure that what I mentioned above doesnt happen.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Fortunately, there will rarely be a case where we need to look back three years to decide a match and hope characters stayed constant. I mean, how much have YOU used the 2k2 stats to help you with this contest?
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Exactly, so every three years it shouldnt be a problem using a new character. In 2006 no one is going to look at the 2k3 stats unless it involves Aeris.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Yes some have. But how many years will that continue? How much longer will Mario and Ryu stay constant. Then what do we do. "Well Cloud was constant from 2009-2012, Yoshi 2006-2009, Mario 2003-2006. So going through Cloud then Yoshi then Mario you get _____ on Link 2k3.

Lets say we are trying to get the 2k19 Extraploated Standings to be in %Link2k3. We would already have the 2k18 Extraploated Standings in %Link2k3 so we would only need to trace back one year to get the 2k19 Extraploated Standings in %Link2k3.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

TRE, there is always an error. No character is completely constant. So every year we use Link 2k3, we add the errors up. The longer we do it, likely the worst the error becomes.
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"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Looks like we're not gonna hit 100k with this one, unless we get lucky.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Vivi/Zelda will be the first 100k match. Count it.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

No, Zero/Hayabusa will be.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I was thinking about Zero/Hayabusa. But I think it will come a little short as well.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

Holy crap, I actually beat TRE to posting one of my own thoughts.

As for why a Link 2k3 base would work for Spring 2005, it would just make more sense to look at from a muscle memory standpoint.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus

TRE, there is always an error. No character is completely constant. So every year we use Link 2k3, we add the errors up. The longer we do it, likely the worst the error becomes.

It's a unit conversion so the error should be very minor. The relative differences between characters of a single year will be the same regardless of if you use Link2k3 or whoever the champion for the year was as the base. At the very worst 1%Link2k3 10 years from now may not be the same as 1%Link2k3 today because of compunding errors, but it should not affect the accuracy of the Extraploated Standings unless you are directly comparing the stats 10 years from now to today.
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

With as close as this one's gonna be, I'm still gonna blame the side-poll for it not reachin' 100,000, heh. With that said, I'm gonna say Ganon/Yuna will break it if Zero/Ryu H. doesn't first.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I dont care if its used in Sp2k5 or Su2k5. My point is I dont know how accurate it will be in 2010 and also in 2010 who cares what everyone gets on 2k3 Link.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

From: UltimaterializerX | Posted: 7/21/2005 1:59:43 AM | Message Detail
creative, is there any chance of us getting a similar added column for the Spring 2005 Contest?

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/21/2005 1:59:51 AM | Message Detail
BTW creativename, are you planning to add a "Expected % Against Link '03" column to the SpC2K5 Extrapolated Standings?

Well...the problem there would be, what value of Sephiroth to use? Seph could be anywhere from 42% on 2K3 Link to 50% on him.


From: NewLib | Posted: 7/21/2005 2:00:58 AM | Message Detail
Eventually we are going to have to give up Link 03 as what to base everyone's percentage on.

It seems to have become entrenched. Remember that this is really Link 2K2 as well, since they are estimated to be equal. Having the first winner ever as the base does make some sense.

Should I change "Link '03" to "Link '02"? Just semantics, but perhaps people would prefer that, since there's actually nothing special about Link 2K3...?
---
www.SC2K5.com

I think you should change it to Bob, the constant championship bear. That would make me most comfortable with the extrapolated standings.
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

Well...the problem there would be, what value of Sephiroth to use? Seph could be anywhere from 42% on 2K3 Link to 50% on him.

Couldn't you do a Least Squares Difference of all the characters that were in both the Spring 2005 and Summer 2004 contest?
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Many tend to prefer saying the base Link is the one from 2K3 because we don't know if Link vs. Mario or Link vs. Sephiroth are even accurate (and thus we can't even say for sure Link was the same both years, though odds are he was). The later matches in SC2K3 are more worth trusting.

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

If you mean "accuracy" in terms of how well somebody in 2010 actually would do against Link in 2003, then obviously that's going to be very inaccurate. But we're pretty much using this is a base for ease of calculation across years, not as something of intrinsic value.

The main problem is that every year, a single character will have to be identified as unchanged (or changed by some precise amount). From 2K2->2K3, that was Link; from 2K3->2K4, it was Cloud. But this involves a fair deal of effort. I've done it with least squares, and both years we've been fortunate to have a major character have a large amount of evidence in favor of them remaining static. There's no guarantee that will continue however.
---
www.SC2K5.com

If Zero/Hayabusa doesn't break 100k Samus/Yuri will be the first.

---
A E I OWN U

I think from now on, you should just assume Sephiroth stayed constant, as the would just be hilarious. :D
---
"Heil Dweebenheimer!"
MasterMage119

The main problem is that every year, a single character will have to be identified as unchanged (or changed by some precise amount). From 2K2->2K3, that was Link; from 2K3->2K4, it was Cloud. But this involves a fair deal of effort. I've done it with least squares, and both years we've been fortunate to have a major character have a large amount of evidence in favor of them remaining static. There's no guarantee that will continue however.

Doesn't least squares allow you you find that precise amount a character has changed by?
---
"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Even then we arent going to get a completely reliable number. Sephiroth underpeformed, Bowser overperformed, Gannon overperformed, Kefka overperformed in certain matches and didnt in other, CATS overperformed, Liquid Snake hahahahahaha. If we take out LS then we have a better chance of getting a good number.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia

From: Team Rocket Elite | Posted: 7/21/2005 2:34:01 AM | Message Detail
Couldn't you do a Least Squares Difference of all the characters that were in both the Spring 2005 and Summer 2004 contest?

There's so much less data to work with though; only, what, 7 characters? Doesn't seem like it would give very useful results. In fact, given the huge Liquid Snake issue and the CATS increase—not even mentioning the whole Ganon/Bowser thing—I think a least squares attempt at isolating just where Sephiroth was wouldn't give very stable results at all.
---
www.SC2K5.com

I'd still like to see the numbers one time with Liquid added in, just so I can see how bad they are for myself.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

99k broken
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Whoo-hoo! 99,000!
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Least square differences how are those numbers produced? Whats the formula.
---
"Why would the boost from AC be bigger than those?" - Mac Arrowny
"Because (Heroic Mario) just replayed Final Fantasy VII." - Lucid Faia