and here's another amusing question before i got to bed:

how many zero brackets do you think we will have left after today? i think we will be cut down to around 280. yeesh.

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

They're gonna be hurtin', that much is for sure.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Bah...there's nothing to argue about until we see Ganondorf and Auron in action, and even then we don't really know where Yuna and Chun are.
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

For what it's worth, Zelda had 61.72% of the brackets against Lara Croft in 2k3, and 43.43% of the brackets had either Lara or Zelda beating Mega Man

I was looking at that the other day...it blew my mind. I guess this won't be the first time that people overestimate Zelda.
---
ALL YOUR VOTES ARE BELONG TO...Pac-Man?

Match 3: (3) Zero vs. (6) Ryu Hayabusa

Past Performances

Zero

Summer 2002
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2003
Beat Scorpion, 62.84% - 37.16%
Lost to Sonic the Hedgehog, 47.66% - 52.34%
Ranked: 14th

Summer 2004
Beat Protoman, 71.72% - 28.28%
Beat Tommy Vercetti, 61.84% - 38.16%
Lost to Mega Man, 43.99% - 56.01%
Ranked: 10th

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Ryu Hayabusa

Summer 2002
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2003
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Summer 2004
Beat Jill Valentine, 50.02% - 49.98%
Lost to Sora, 38.28% - 61.72%
Ranked: 28th

Spring 2005
Did not attend
Ranked: N/A

Analysis:

Finally we get a match where both characters have been in a past contest. This makes predicting the match easier. Zero is the clear winner of this match and by using the x-st we are looking at a 68/32 match. I could just end the analysis now and make a prediction, but I won’t. Here are a few things that could alter the percent for this match.

First of all there’s the Mega Man/Zero match. Most people say there was little if no SFF in that match since Zero performed about what he should’ve against Mega Man. But that’s not what I’m going to talk about. Many of us remembered his match against Link right? Well we all claimed it to be some kind of weird SFF and gave Mega Man his 2k3 numbers. That’s all fine and dandy, but there’s still one more factor that happened between 2k3 and 2k4 that everyone seemed to disregard, well almost everyone.

Remember Heroic Mario’s rant of why Mega Man would win in 2k4, well if you don’t it was because of the game called Mega Man Anniversary Collection. Now as we all know HM’s prediction didn’t live up to what he expected, but the guy still has a point. What if MMAC did give him a boost? Both Sonic and Ryu gain from their own collections so why wouldn’t Mega Man? Sure those boosts may have been small, but then again Mega Man only needs a small boost to beat Crono. So if Mega Man were to be placed higher Zero will also be placed higher. For example if Mega Man = Crono Zero would be placed at about Magus’ strength. Zero may even have a chance to score 70% during the match (it could be even higher with Ryu’s bad night vote).

Now looking at the other side of the match, what do we have going for Ryu Hayabusa? Well Hayabusa’s newest game for the Xbox that came out last year had some time to age and gain more sales, but I don’t think that’ll help him so much. Another thing is that Ryu in 2k4 was given DoA pictures for his match instead of his Ninja Gaiden pictures. I for one don’t take much stock into match pictures, but if you’ve seen this match’s picture you know how cool it is. Like I’ve said pictures usually don’t mean much unless this is a match against two nobody’s, but clearly this is not. This is probably one of the better pictures for Ryu, but I don’t think that’ll give him anymore more then 200 more votes and with matches reaching 100k that’s not going to help him.

So now you’ve seen it. Zero has the best chance out of the two characters to have some kind of a gain. I personally don’t see Zero finishing this match with over 70%, but if he does Crono better watch out in the semi-finals because Mega Man might be able to have a good chance against him. Then again I could be all wrong and Zero could underperform, but again I’m very sure Zero will at least double Hayabusa.

charmander6000’s Bracket: Zero over Ryu Hayabusa

charmander6000’s Prediction: Zero wins, 69.01% - 30.99%

---
17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

Well, we have sort of a feel for Yuna. She faced a consistent Knuckles, and if she gets roundabout what she's supposed to get on Ganondorf, that could help.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Time for things to become uninteresting until Frog/Riku, and maybe even later...

---
RIP: Tnote827 - 4/4/2005
Sp2k5 - 77/80 (stupid Master Hand)

But she had FFX-2 since her last contest appearance and vote totals are back up. We don't know how either will affect her (or new Square in general), and we won't know until...wow, not until Tifa/Vyse, really.

Oh, and I meant Big Boss, not Chun. <_<
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Well, Yuna's only other appearance is when vote totals were comparable to this. Either way, it should give us a good clue if the guestimate is way off in one direction or the other.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

...Looking at the bracket a little more closely, the only conclusions we can draw from the first round are if Magus is overrated and the outcome of Luigi/Tifa.
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

We can also get a good idea if Sam was overrated in 2003 or if he just took a big drop in 2004.

...It would be hilarious to see DK perform better on Sam than Magus did, and he's projected to do just that.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Er...If he was underrated in 2004, or if he just took a big drop...
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Incidentally, if our KOS-MOS and Vyse readings for 2k4 are correct (and there's no reason for them not to be), KOS-MOS' % on Luigi divided by Vyse's % on Tifa needs to equal 1.26 for Luigi to equal Tifa. So, if Tifa doubles Vyse, Luigi needs to get 58% on KOS-MOS to have a chance.
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Heh, Yoshi wouldn't be expected to get that much on KOS-MOS.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Yoshi's percentage, like Luigi's, is completely wrong. And I don't think Tifa will quite double Vyse anyway, though it will be close.
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

...Completely? Ryo Hazuki would beg to differ.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Tifa can and will break 70% on Vyse.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 1/2 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Ryu Hayabusa

What's everyone predicting Zero to get on Ryu H.?

---
A E I OWN U

2 Hours to get 5000 more votes...
~~~
"[Zelos] clearly should be writing in his book of dark poetry and slitting his wrists with a cruxis crystal - meisnewbie

From: Dilated Chemist | Posted: 7/20/2005 9:54:24 PM | Message Detail
What's everyone predicting Zero to get on Ryu H.?

I'm expecting Zero to get 68% on Ryu H.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 1/2 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Ryu Hayabusa

Go check on Ryo Hazuki's 2k2 value. Check Guybrush' 2k2 and 2k4 values, while you're at it. Then look who Ryo faced in 2k3: Dante. Dante also faced Ratchet in 2k4, who faced Luigi in 2k3. I submit to you that Dante, because of his general appeal, overperforms on fodder characters, thus reconciling Ryo with his 2k2 value and getting Ratchet consistent with my theory. That is, if you want to use fodder to measure characters.
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Tifa can and will break 70% on Vyse.

What's that, CJ? You too, Viewtiful Joe? Kefka? Ryu Hayabusa? Something about overestimation of new characters?
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

If Zero outdoes what the extrapolated stats predict that could mean something...it could mean that either Zero grew or Ryu fell. A ninja pic certainly wouldn't hurt Ryu.

If Ganondorf gets 65+% against Yuna that could prove a lot for Ganondorf's strength.

Mega Man vs. Conker will certainly be interesting when comparing to Crono vs. Conker.

Oh, yes, and...Ocelot vs. Pac-Man could give us an idea on the strength of Bowser (and perhaps the other characters) from Sp2K5. Then again, I think the only way we could conclude anything with decent confidence is if Pac-Man gets 47+%, which would show that Pac-Man underperformed against Luigi, and that Bowser Sp2K5 = Bowser SC2K3.

To add a bit on to estimating Auron...you think Dante might've underperformed against Sonic (underrating Tails, too)? Think about it...Dante had that unrecognizable VJoe picture, and Dante exceeded what the 2K3 stats predicted when he was up against Ratchet. So, if you adjust Dante up a percent that puts Tails on par with Scorpion. Just a thought...

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

Regardless, I think it's farfetched to say it's "completely" wrong when there's not that much evidence in support of it.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Viewtiful Joe? Kefka? Ryu Hayabusa?

Two of those three are more due to underestimation of other characters.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I'll give Zero 64.5% against Ryu Hayabusa.

As for Luigi, he's gonna be pushing it enough to beat KOS-MOS with 51%...58% is over the top. All that's left is for Tifa to impress against Vyse, and her path is set. If she were to double Vyse, that means she would get 26.88% on Link 2k4, just short of Sora. I suspect she's gonna be stronger than even that, thus making Luigi look all the worse off.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

What's that, CJ? You too, Viewtiful Joe? Kefka? Ryu Hayabusa? Something about overestimation of new characters?

Vivi, Frog, and Magus. All were new characters (Magus in 2003) that did well. Just because a character is new doesn't mean they'll bomb or be overestimated.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 1/2 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Ryu Hayabusa

Heh. Yeah, Magus sure took out Link.
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Ness received 55.08% against Jak; Ness currently has 55.18% against CJ. Keep holding it, Ness! =P

On a chatroom last night (about 1/2 hour into the poll) I suggested that Ness might make CJ look worse than Jak. A few people thought that was crazy. 0wned again... =P

---
"Ah, a party! We haven't had one of those. It could be fun! So...what is a party?"
"Well, you drink punch and eat CAKE! ...I think."

From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/20/2005 10:04:37 PM | Message Detail
Heh. Yeah, Magus sure took out Link.

No, but Magus took out Ganondorf which less than 30% of the brackets predicted.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 1/2 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Ryu Hayabusa

Magus was thought to be able to outdo Crono in 2003. Still, Vivi was definitely underrated by the vast majority of board 8. Frog was pretty much pegged, since he won his first two matches (though his opponents were underrated) like he was supposed to.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Not to mention Magus got 35% on Link which is very good.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 1/2 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Ryu Hayabusa

No, but Magus took out Ganondorf which less than 25% of the brackets predicted.

More precise'd.
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Yeah, those Magus numbers are really trustworthy.
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Shadows the best case of a newcomer doing way better than expected. Most people expected him to lose to Wario and yet he made Wario look like a joke and got 45% on Mario.

Not to mention Magus got 35% on Link which is very good.

You're completely missing the point. According to the board, he was supposed to beat him, or at the very least outdo Crono.
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Anyway, I'll try and keep my mouth shut until the actual matches occur, like I did with Ness/CJ and I've been doing with Terra/Dante.
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/20/2005 10:07:23 PM | Message Detail
Yeah, those Magus numbers are really trustworthy.

Why wouldn't Magus' 2k3 level be trustworthy?
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 1/2 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Ryu Hayabusa

They're two years old?
---
Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Ness 55.19% 53212
Carl Johnson 44.81% 43212

10,000

From: Mister Mario | Posted: 7/20/2005 10:11:20 PM | Message Detail
They're two years old?

It's more trustworthy than his 2k4 level since he was SFF'd by Crono (Thanks Cjay). And since Crono increased from 2k3 to 2k4 it's pretty safe to assume Magus increased also.
---
Summer 2005 Contest - 1/2 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Ryu Hayabusa

Yeah, Sephiroth decreased in 2004, so it's natural to assume Cloud did, too.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I've seen a fair deal of confusion caused by the different strength base for SC2K4, with the stronger Link. I had placed a column in the SC2K4 SFF-adjusted standings with values against Link 2K3, but that column was off to the right; and not present in the un-adjusted standings, so I don't think that was very effective in preventing confusion.

So I've now added an "Expected % Against Link '03" column to the SC2K4 X-stats:

http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/17

And also moved the same column over and made it the primary column in the SC2K4 SFF-adjusted X-stats:

http://sc2k5.com/drupal/node/18

Hopefully this will help to avoid confusion, by using Link 2K3=Link 2K2 as the "standard" base. That follows set precedents as that is what people have usually done in calculations.
---
www.SC2K5.com

From: RPGuy96 | Posted: 7/21/2005 12:58:26 AM | Message Detail
Go check on Ryo Hazuki's 2k2 value. Check Guybrush' 2k2 and 2k4 values, while you're at it. Then look who Ryo faced in 2k3: Dante. Dante also faced Ratchet in 2k4, who faced Luigi in 2k3. I submit to you that Dante, because of his general appeal, overperforms on fodder characters, thus reconciling Ryo with his 2k2 value and getting Ratchet consistent with my theory.

IMO you are really stretching here.

You're completely missing the point. According to the board, he was supposed to beat him, or at the very least outdo Crono.

What...? Magus performed about as well as he was supposed too, unless you were a crazy fanboy. The oracle prediction was Link with 64.71%; he got 65.07%. The board had Magus pegged.
---
www.SC2K5.com

Magus performed about as well as he was supposed too, unless you were a crazy fanboy. The oracle prediction was Link with 64.71%; he got 65.07%. The board had Magus pegged.

Well, that was after Magus had two matches under his belt. Before that, he was thought to be at least as strong as Crono by several people.
---
Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Oh, and if you're only talking about pre-contest expectations for Magus, it was pretty much the fanboys that said he'd beat Link. I don't think anyone around here actually thought that there was a legitimate chance of that happening.
---
www.SC2K5.com

From: Sir Crono | Posted: 7/21/2005 1:19:37 AM | Message Detail
Well, that was after Magus had two matches under his belt. Before that, he was thought to be at least as strong as Crono by several people.

He was only a few points weaker than Crono. I'm guessing that's where the consensus would've had him at; Magus>Crono wasn't exactly taken for granted.

The only reason people thought Magus disappointed that year was because he wasn't supposed to struggle against Ganon, who struggled against Tidus; but that was because Tidus was underrated (which was my big theory for that year). Similar to how Frog was called a flop after struggling with Liquid; except that Tidus was underrated despite being one of the stronger characters in 2K2. In retrospect it's pretty clear that Magus did not disappoint that year.
---
www.SC2K5.com

IMO you are really stretching here.

Yes, I am, but I've already talked about every other match relating to Luigi, no matter how distant, so I might as well talk about the fodder for a bit.
---
"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Just under 3,000 votes left, just under ninety minutes left...

...vote-total comparison, please?
---
Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

What's that, CJ? You too, Viewtiful Joe? Kefka? Ryu Hayabusa? Something about overestimation of new characters?

Except that Tifa doesn't exactly have a problem with exposure on GameFAQs.

~*ST*~
---
Winner of the Spring 2004 "Best. Game. Ever." Contest
"If my fate is to be destroyed... I must simply laugh!" -Magus