Meh, it's still more than what we have to base Ganondorf off of because we really have no idea how much was him changing, Bowser changing, or Sephiroth changing because our base was left out of the contest.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Ness 55.17% 49673
Carl Johnson 44.83% 40366
TOTAL VOTES 90039

Whoo-hoo!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Ness 55.17% 50001
Carl Johnson 44.83% 40632
TOTAL VOTES 90633

50000!!!!!
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness

Well, at least tomorrow we're getting two returners fighting each other. Should be good to see if there was any shift of power with the boosted turnouts... I mean, we're almost at 2003 numbers here. For personal reference, Zero's expected to get 67.40%.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 001/001 - Matches: 01/01 - Rank: 00001/33793 - Today: CJ - Tomorrow: Zero

Meh, it's still more than what we have to base Ganondorf off of because we really have no idea how much was him changing, Bowser changing, or Sephiroth changing because our base was left out of the contest.

Auron's estimated 2k4 ranking has nothing to do with Link's presence in 2k4.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Auron's estimated 2k4 ranking has nothing to do with Link's presence in 2k4.

Considering we needed Tails's strength relative to Link (as all of the stats show) to get an estimation for Auron...It's really difficult to show strength changes in the Spring Contest since it's not possible to show them relative to Link.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

As he walks the path of life...his name is called for..chanted by those, his fellow Elites, his equals, who know the power of his prose...as the noobs, fanbabies, and nerdboys cower in the darkness...afraid the truth of their blind loyalty will be brought forth before their judgment clouded eyes...

He answers the call with a tip of his BoSox cap...draws forth his pen to compose the very column that has increased Stats thread readership by 23.39%... He is...

The Sage of Board 8, Steve Illumina

Hahahaha, greetings gamers the world over...the time has come to write once more...be afraid kiddies, be very afraid indeed...

And so for 2005 it begins, in the 'Shiitake' Mushroom Division..

(3)Zero vs (6)Ryu Hayabusa

Steve's Pick: Zero
Fanboy-O-Meter: Favors Zero!
Upset Odds: Slight...
Match Fun Factor: 4/10: Pretty lame-o match on the surface, but anything is possible after the betrayal of CJ

Comments: I will get right to the point...I am FURIOUS! I am shocked and appalled that I, the Sage of Board 8, lost my perfect on the 2nd day! Apparently 4 million copies sold dont mean a thing when a bunch of fanbabies band together to ruin me...and that is what has happened. Consequently, my wrath has increased...and I shall lay swath to all who anger me now...

As for you, Ness...The King of Platformers will SFF you back to that little town you came from, and he will stick that protractor where the sun dont shine!

Now that I have vented...onto today's match!

Zero will win because he has what Ryu wont ever have...fanboys! Yep, there just aint a clan of ninja fanboys running around drawing Ryu art and all that. Ryu is not thought of...it is his games that peeps think of. Zero, on the other hand, has all the anime and magna kiddies behind him, and robo-droid lovers, and of course, Mega Man supporters. He cannot lose.

Using my complex calculus formulas, graphing the results on a vector plane...i have determined i can still win this thing, and taste leaderboard glory...once my dark horse pick later in the bracket takes care of business...

Prediction: Zero, unlike that Grand Theft Choker, will get the job done. Bye bye little Ninja...

Quote of the Day: "CJ should take that bat from Ness and beat him with it...stupid little fatass midget.." -Me
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Steve Illumina: 'Sage of Board 8', Renowned Author, MK Master, Noob Basher & Fanbaby Smacker! Score: 1/2

Between Ryu Hayabusa gettin' the pic he deserved all along and Zero possibly being over-rated by the whole 20XX controversy, I can see Ryu H. gettin' about 36%, maybe 37%.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games like we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Yeah, Hayabusa finally got his ninja picture when he has no chance to win.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Well, I should say 35%-36%; I forgot to consider the minor SFF that Zero probably suffered against Mega Man.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games like we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I say 35% is about the best Hayabusa can hope for. Any less and it'll be a disappointment by Zero. Still shouldn't be in any danger of coming close to coming to Lloyd.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 001/001 - Matches: 01/01 - Rank: 00001/33793 - Today: CJ - Tomorrow: Zero

Losing to Lloyd, rather.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 001/001 - Matches: 01/01 - Rank: 00001/33793 - Today: CJ - Tomorrow: Zero

I'm rolling low and saying 31-32%. I have a hunch Zero will impress.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ness vs. CJ - Bracket: CJ - Vote: Ness (1/1)

One thing i'd like to add, will this prove anything significantly about Mega Man's match against Link?
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Bracket: CJ - Vote: CJ Points: 1/1 Rank: 1/1

Ah, nothing like Steve whining worse than the fanbrats he decries.

I can see Hayabusa getting around 37%, but any more than that would be rather bad for Zero.
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The two halves of the Yorae Dragon duel once more in Godlike... which will survive? Find out at www.rpgdl.com.

Not really. If Zero does worse than expected, we can blame it on the long awaited Ninja pic.
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"It shall be engraved upon your soul! Divine Assault: Nibelung Valesti!" ~ Lenneth Valkyrie

Well, there's still the variable with Hayabusa since he could potentially overperform due to being more recognizable. However, even if Zero does what he's supposed to do, it won't say anything about Mega Man since he still could've been SFF'd.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Considering we needed Tails's strength relative to Link (as all of the stats show) to get an estimation for Auron...It's really difficult to show strength changes in the Spring Contest since it's not possible to show them relative to Link.

Tails' strength(or Scorpion if you use him) is based on 2k3 Link and carried over into the 2k4 contest. It's no different taking Kefka's ranking in 2k4 and carrying it over into the Spring 2k5 contest.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Regardless, the stats didn't hold up with Bowser/Sephiroth and Ganondorf/Sephiroth, so it's not possible to tell where the strengths have changed since there's no Link to make a comparison with.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

*prepares Steve impression*

I , the Sage of Board 8, have lost my perfect bracket! But my dark horse of Sam Fisher upsetting Donkey Kong and Master Chief will put me on the top of the leaderboard! *insert more whining of Ness > CJ*
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May 05 NPD Sales - PSP - 250k. DS - 57k.
PSP trumps DS by 4.38x in sales for the month of May.

Err... just realized that Auron's rank through Scorpion and Tails is not the same method. What I was saying only applies to deriving Auron through Scorpion not Tails.
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Well, there's still the variable with Hayabusa since he could potentially overperform due to being more recognizable.

While I agree with you, I gotta bring up an older issue with you about more recognizable pics: are you still as dead-set against CATS and especially Kefka being stronger than usual against Ansem and Wesker (respectively) when they got much more recognizable pics?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games like we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Well, the difference with CATS and Hayabusa is that they NEED recognizable pictures because they're not familiar names to the casual fan (especially considering there are millions of guys named Ryu in the video gaming world).

With Kefka, you either know him or you don't. He's from Final Fantasy VI, one of the most popular games on the site. I don't expect a picture to make that much of a difference for him because there's a smaller likelihood of unfamiliarity.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/20/2005 5:54:10 PM | Message Detail
I'm predicting 40-50% for Ness. This performance shows that less casuals than I thought like, or even know CJ.

Casual voters tend to go with GTA. Remember the percentages for Vercetti/Zero and Vice City/SSBM?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 1/2 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Ryu Hayabusa

I mean casual bracketmakers and prediction percentages.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 1/2 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Ryu Hayabusa

From: Slowflake | Posted: 7/20/2005 10:43:06 PM | Message Detail
That's why I suggest adjustments through all three. CN is a god at these sorts of things, I'm sure he'll pull through if he decides to do it.

RPGuy is more agile at them than me. He pops them out like Skittles. Thoroughly and sensibly too.


It's the potential Auron through Scorpion adjustment that made me pick Auron>Ganon. The complicated part is, is that adjusting for Sephiroth/Auron or for Cloud/Seph; and how much for each? But for the purposes of Auron/Ganon, or Ness/CJ, that doesn't matter.
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www.SC2K5.com

I wish I had the list CJay released in 2k3 about how many brackets had what characters winning the whole contest; I know there was alot for Vercetti (I wanna say he was in the Top Ten of that...not sure). Either way, not even a third of the brackets had Mega Man gettin' into the Elite Eight, which included having to face Tommy Vercetti.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Casual voters tend to go with GTA. Remember the percentages for Vercetti/Zero and Vice City/SSBM?

Yeah, but CJ is showing right now that he is not on the level of Vercetti and Vice City, which leads me to believe he won't get as much bracket backing as they did.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ness vs. CJ - Bracket: CJ - Vote: Ness (1/1)

Bracket support says little about actual contest strength.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Well, today's match tells me one of four things:

1) Ness increased somehow.

2) Auron received significant SFF against Sephiroth last year. Hell, I factored possible SFF into my Oracle Prediction and still had CJ winning.

3) CJ really does suck for whatever reason.

4) CJ does have some popularity, but got screwed by a bad match picture.

The fact that Ness performed better against CJ than Jak makes me want to lean towards 1 or 4, personally.

Oh, and I called an increase in Nintendo power yesterday, once I saw the higher vote totals.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire

Yeah, but Kuja is showing right now that he is not on the level of Vivi, which leads me to believe he won't get as much bracket backing as Vivi did.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

CJNW, you know why.

---
A E I OWN U

Yesmar..

You can't call an increase in Nintendo power until seeing a Square/Noble 9 Character perform..
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May 05 NPD Sales - PSP - 250k. DS - 57k.
PSP trumps DS by 4.38x in sales for the month of May.

I don't think the pic is affecting things much at all, unless that is actually Ryder...but the arguing about that has been so iffy that I'm not gonna give that one credit yet. If somebody'll e-mail CJay and he has a rematch of today, I'll take that back...but I don't think the pic's costing CJ much.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

Oh, and I called an increase in Nintendo power yesterday, once I saw the higher vote totals.

heh, Nintendo Power.

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

...We saw a Noble Nine character yesterday, ya know.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I think that the prediction percentage for Ness/CJ will be 35%.

Out of curiosity what would be the prediction percentage for Vivi/Zelda if Vivi were to win?
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Summer 2005 Contest - 1/2 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Ryu Hayabusa

Cyko, I saw that too; I was about to question if NP, of all sources, was advertising or not for this, heh.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I don't think the pic is affecting things much at all, unless that is actually Ryder

It's not. I've looked at pictures of Ryder, and that's not him. CJ's problem is the lack of a trademark look.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Non-Nintendo Noble 9 Char.
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May 05 NPD Sales - PSP - 250k. DS - 57k.
PSP trumps DS by 4.38x in sales for the month of May.

Out of curiosity what would be the prediction percentage for Vivi/Zelda if Vivi were to win?

Probably around the same as Vivi's support against DK.
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The King of all Cosmos' route to summer victory:
Round 1: (4) Tidus... LET ME DREAM :

Considering Vivi actually had board 8 support last year against DK and still only managed 35% of the brackets...Less than 30% against Zelda.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Anybody think Scorpion could be stronger than both Ryu Hayabusa and Jill Valentine?

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A E I OWN U

Looks like today's match will reach 100,000 votes. Awesome. ^_^
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"Thank you, Mario. But our princess is in another castle."
-Toad in Super Mario Bros.

I'm pleasantly surprised with Samus' bracket support OUTSIDE of the board, based on the top 50.

I just have to mention, I don't think the leaderboard on the first day tells us anything about what people outside the board think. I would venture that most if not all of those people are board 8ers. We already know Leonhart's on there three times, along with several others... my secondary bracket is in 30th and I submitted that one before the bracket ever went up on the front page.
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SpC2K5 First Vote Champion
Congrats to yoblazer, the Guru contest winner!

At the 21:00 mark, this match has 93,582 votes.

Mario/Joanna Dark: 92,948
Cloud/Samus: 94,637
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

i said it in the last topic and i'll say it again:

i think that CJ will have around 70% of the brackets on his side. GTA has proven over and over again that it gets the casual bracket-maker's support. i mean, Zero was the resounding, obvious, no-brainer lock over Vercetti, and he only had 31.5% of the brackets on his side.

---
Official Co-Host for PUB TRIVIA XV
Yoblazer is officially THE MAN for beating us all in SpC2K5!!

For what it's worth, Zelda had 61.72% of the brackets against Lara Croft in 2k3, and 43.43% of the brackets had either Lara or Zelda beating Mega Man...Vivi had 35.13% against Donkey Kong.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games the way we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I think CJ's bracket strength is being over-estimated. I mean, I don't see Ness with over 50%, but I wouldn't be surprised if he had over 40% of the brackets.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ness vs. CJ - Bracket: CJ - Vote: Ness (1/1)

We MIGHT hit 100,000.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Master Ness