....Instead of blaming EB, why don't we blame GTA instead? ****ing gangsta-wannabe.

Ah well. That's what I get for not doing my homework.
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If you like the Contests, visit: www.rpgdl.com
Fanfiction Project (FFP): http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=21949239

I took CJ and had confidence in him, but I still thought the match would be close.

Huge mistake, indeed. Everyone should know by now that if we know a match will be close that the underdog will have more than a shot at winining. See Squall/Jill and Sora/Ryu Hayabusa, as well.


Lemme rephrase it to something I felt last year then...ahem:

I took Frog and had confidence in him, but I still thought the match would be close.

...referring to the MC/Frog match, mind you.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violence in video games like we treat tobacco and alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our reelection fund.

So... who else thinks CJ might have had 75%+ of the brackets behind him?
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"

From: Haste2 | Posted: 7/20/2005 7:27:28 PM | Message Detail
I saw more people mocking others for picking Ness over CJ than I did see actually pick Ness, I swear.

Now that I think back on it, this was indeed the case.

No one ever mocked me for debating in favor of Ness...but then, I don't recall anyone responding to what I was saying anyway.

I think people had just convinced each other that this wasn't a match to worry about. A mass delusion sort of thing.

Everyone should know by now that if we know a match will be close that the underdog will have more than a shot at winining.

Yes, exactly, which is why the whole BOP over-favoritism thing stands out so much.

Unless a character is expected to win fairly comfortably, you can't ever be all that certain they're going to win at all.

In other words, having real confidence in the victory of a character in a match that you expect to be close is totally non-sensical. The variance of these processes is just too high for that.
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www.SC2K5.com

I wouldn't be that surprised...

This match is ahead of Mario vs. Joanna by 630 at 17:10:00. ^_^
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Flee back to your masters, Aldaris, and huddle with them in darkness! For your actions shall set us all unto the Zerg! ~ Tassadar

In other words, having real confidence in the victory of a character in a match that you expect to be close is totally non-sensical. The variance of these processes is just too high for that.

Sort of reminds me of Tidus/Shadow.

I guess it's sort of win some lose some.
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Revenge is a dish best served cold. ~Old Klingon Proverb

Hmm...the thing that's even more sad about this is that even with all the publicity and controversy that SA is causing right now, he's still getting his ass kicked by the Cult King, Ness.

Irony, anyone?
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ness vs. CJ - Bracket: CJ - Vote: Ness (1/1)

We've already gone over this, but let's repeat it again.

Earthbound is cult. Ness is not.
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The world is toroidal

That makes complete sense.
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Bracket: CJ - Vote: CJ Points: 1/1 Rank: 1/1

Earthbound is cult. Ness is not.

I like how this guy thinks.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games like we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I can call Ness whatever I want.

I don't like him much in SSB/SSB:M anyway >.>
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ness vs. CJ - Bracket: CJ - Vote: Ness (1/1)

SSB Revolution already sounds great. Now imagine if Ness is as strong as he was in the original SSB. That will kick ass.

By the way, Ness is better with a baseball bat that CJ could ever dream of being.

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2nd Place, Spring Contest 2005
My Video Game World Records: http://www.twingalaxies.com/index.aspx?c=22&p=35289

I really hope the first match to hit 100,000+ is with my man Ness.

*crosses fingers*

I hope I'm wrong, but it looks like the vote totals are slowin' down. We'll still get close to 100,000 again though...and I stand by my prediction that today would have gotten 100,000 votes; it's just that I'll be wrong thanks to that side-poll, heh.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games like we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

The difference between the SMB3/MG and Metroid/Pac-Man side-poll was those polls were on top of the contest poll.
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17 handhelds Nintendo has taken down 1 more to go (see quote for rest)

Right, and that cost a lil' less than 20,000 votes in those two matches. I understand that it's goin' to cost significantly less votes for the real match here since it's on the side...but it's not unreasonable to think it could still cost 1,000-2,000 (I'm guessin' closer to 1,000) votes in today's match.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games like we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I think the prediction percentages will be higher than people here seem to think.

Ironically enough, I chose Ness in my bracket because I had no idea who CJ was.
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Think fast. Click faster.

This is a good example of why Characters =/= Games
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Bracket: CJ - Vote: CJ Points: 1/1 Rank: 1/1

I'm predicting 40-50% for Ness. This performance shows that less casuals than I thought like, or even know CJ.
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Moltar's Comics - http://www.stripcreator.com/comics/Moltar
Ness vs. CJ - Bracket: CJ - Vote: Ness (1/1)

GotY..

3 FAQs in top 10...

I hate GTA:SA, now. Full of rabid fanboys who are so sure their character will win, they just don't vote. **** them. :-(

Ness deserves it, anyways. :-)
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PETITION: Ability to preview contests to moderators before posting it. http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=19643565 (199 Signs!)

The GTA fanbase always did seem heavily comprised of Democrats.
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Urgh, looks like I'm already out of the running, right after things started!

Rants aside, congrats to all gurus who called this match right.

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Posts without a sig looks ugly, so I guess I need something here.

Wow, I've FINALLY caught up and read all the posts. The one thing I did NOT expect today was for Ness to be winning, and certainly not with 55%. I'm happy for him, though, even though I have CJ in my bracket. I've never played any GTA game, nor have I played Earthbound, but Ness is one of my favorites from SSB and SSBM, so naturally I voted for him.

I'm still confident I can go very well though, since if Bowser and Squall pull through, I'll be doing extremely well.

Oh, and congrats Leonhart. It's good to see a Squall supporter in the #1 spot.
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For the sake of simplicity, I'm going to refer to Gordon Freeman versus Tanner as Schrodinger's Match. -Phoenix Flattener

Well, you're probably not the only one who has the Squall/Bowser pick. I think you also need to get lucky with the other toss up matches as well (hope the high scorers botch those).

http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=8&topic=22332350

Well, here's why I think Vivi will beat Zelda.
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Summer 2005 Contest - 1/2 points
Current Match Prediction: Zero vs. Ryu Hayabusa

Ness will get about 37% of the brackets. Considering how huge of support CJ had over Ness in the BOP, Ness obviously didn't get much bracket support from us. Then, while they may not have VOTED for CJ today, it would seem unreasonable for CJ to not have gotten alot of bracket-support from the casuals. Keep in mind Vercetti had over half of the brackets supporting him to get to the Sweet Sixteen in 2k3 (which includes a win over Donkey Kong)...why wouldn't CJ, from this past year's GotY, get over half of the brackets against a much more cult and arguably weaker Ness in a first round match?

I can see Ness gettin' up to 45% of the brackets, but anything more would shock me. I'm shootin' low with my guess though and thinkin' he's only gettin' about 37%.
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games like we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I think that Ness will get good bracket support, despite the GTA fanboy-picking factor. If for no other reason then I can see plenty of people seeing 'Carl Johnson' in the bracket and going "Who in the **** is that?"

I'd guess 40+%.
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www.SC2K5.com

I can see plenty of people seeing 'Carl Johnson' in the bracket and going "Who in the **** is that?"

...as opposed to Ness?
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Hillary Clinton: We need to treat violent video games like we treat tobacco or alcohol.
Lewis Black: Namely as valued contributors to our re-election fund.

I wouldn't be surprised if Ness broke Vivi's Character Contest Record of a 35% prediction percentage.

Terra might beat the record too if she manages to beat Dante.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire

In other words, having real confidence in the victory of a character in a match that you expect to be close is totally non-sensical. The variance of these processes is just too high for that.

Sort of reminds me of Tidus/Shadow.

Eh, I can vouch for that. I knew Tidus/Shadow would be close, but I also knew that there was no way Tidus was going to lose that match. Shadow didn't have anything in his favor that made me feel like he could actually win that match, even if he did keep it close.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

I'm still catching up on reading the topic so I'm not sure if anybody has anwsered this yet.

Number of brackets for each past contest:
Sum 2002- 16764
Sum 2003- 41059
Spr 2004- 40940
Sum 2004- 33221
Spr 2005- 24748
Sum 2005- 33793
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"Those whose memories fade seek to carve them in their hearts..."
"All dreams are but another reality. Never forget..."

Huzzah! Slightly more brackets than last summer and much more than spring!

At the 19:10 mark, this match has 87,762 votes. At the same time, Mario/Joanna Dark had 87,267 votes. Still ahead.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/20/2005 9:55:22 PM | Message Detail
...as opposed to Ness?

Um...yeah? One would think that a helluva lot more people (especially around here) have heard the name "Ness" than "Carl Johnson".
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www.SC2K5.com

Lots of interesting discussion here. I have plenty to say myself... that'll take some type to write up though.

BTW, <3 cyko's 500th post. If you mean in a contest setting, CJ does suck that much. Oh, and I'm sure someone would've been crazy enough to pick Jak over CJ in the BOP, contrary to what someone said... I mean, we have Weaker picks (that typo was so appropriate, I'll keep on calling him that), Rikku picks, Fisher picks, Freeman picks, Conker picks, Big Boss picks, KoaC picks...

... okay, I'm done. Big-ass post next.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 001/001 - Matches: 01/01 - Rank: 00001/33793 - Today: CJ - Tomorrow: Zero

From: creativename | Posted: 7/20/2005 10:20:34 PM | #133
From: HaRRicH | Posted: 7/20/2005 9:55:22 PM | Message Detail
...as opposed to Ness?

Um...yeah? One would think that a helluva lot more people (especially around here) have heard the name "Ness" than "Carl Johnson".

Exactly. Ness may not be all that loved outside of the core EB fanbase, but he has the I Know This Guy From SSBM appeal.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 001/001 - Matches: 01/01 - Rank: 00001/33793 - Today: CJ - Tomorrow: Zero

Ness through Tails:
57 Dr. Wily 21.27
58 Nemesis 21.20
59 Jak 21.08
Carl Johnson 21.02
60 Ridley 20.91
61 Raziel 20.45
62 HK-47 20.41

CJ's % on 20XXDF Vercetti: 41.38%

Ness through Scorpion*:
51 Ryu Hayabusa 22.68
52 Ramza Beoulve 22.31
53 Kasumi 22.17
Carl Johnson 22.05
54 Fox McCloud 21.83
55 Bomberman 21.65
56 Viewtiful Joe 21.56

CJ's % on 20XXDF Vercetti: 43.41%

*Note: Jak should really be on there just above CJ, but I'm too lazy to add him in.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Okay. Now that I'm done catching up...

I'm pleasantly surprised with Samus' bracket support OUTSIDE of the board, based on the top 50. I always thought that it'd be more of a toss-up if Mario was favored, but that if somehow Samus had more brackets on her side it was a done deal (for Mario at least, not necessarily Crono). I mean, for the casual who doesn't visit the board to know Samus is the strongest remaining character in the main bracket, even above Crono and Mario, that's something. If it was only two of them, I wouldn't say, but there's a buttload of Samus pickers:

Samus - 20
Crono - 11
Mario - 8
Megaman - 4
Sonic - 2
Squall - 1
CATS - 1
Vivi - 1
Bowser - 1
Snake - 1

Now, back to the present. I'm not sad because I'm losing my perfect, I'm not angry enough to hunt down and kill every Ness voter - heck, I voted for the little guy myself. But you may or may not know how it stings to have your truly serious, even if a bit too cookie-cutter, bracket, be ranked worse than "serious" brackets with such ridiculous picks as Kirby or Geno taking the main bracket, DK over Chief, a Dante/KraToS semifinal and whatnot. Not only these, but favorite brackets as well, and maybe even a zero attempt from someone who genuinely thought Joanna would beat Mario. That's... slightly insulting. I'm feeling like Dabu would feel if I rushed him in Starcraft.

Now, from a stats point of view. There was already quite a bit of evidence that there was some SFF in the Cloud/Seph/Vivi/Auron quartet, and Ness doing so well tends to highlight that. I mean, CJ may be weak, but I don't see him losing to Vercetti with less than 40%. I mean, even IGN gave him 48%. And I'd bet my shirt it happened in Cloud/Seph, since that match happened the year before with different results, and Seph didn't SFF Auron and Vivi, or too slightly to notice. So I'm starting to think we really need new SFF adjustments for the bottom half of Midgar, based on not only a static Seph, but also a static DK and a static Scorpion, to minimize the risk of error. Not necessary to adjust Seph if you're not convinced, but at least for the 7 other guys.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 001/001 - Matches: 01/01 - Rank: 00001/33793 - Today: CJ - Tomorrow: Zero

So I'm starting to think we really need new SFF adjustments for the bottom half of Midgar, based on not only a static Seph, but also a static DK and a static Scorpion, to minimize the risk of error.

RPGuy has had these for a while...
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

So I'm starting to think we really need new SFF adjustments for the bottom half of Midgar, based on not only a static Seph, but also a static DK and a static Scorpion, to minimize the risk of error. Not necessary to adjust Seph if you're not convinced, but at least for the 7 other guys.

I did that nine months ago. I used Tails for Auron, though it looks like Scorpion might be more accurate. ;)
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

assume Ness wins with 55.20%, I believe it has been static for the last while.

96,154 votes would be needed to win by 10,000 votes and this percentage.

Currently, the poll is barely ahead of Mario/Jo which scovered over 98,000 votes, so it looks like Ness willwin by barely over 10,000! That's pretty cool, for being predicted to lose "without contest."

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Ness will have over half of the bracket support. He's a VERY casual pick, no matter how popular GTA is. SSB/SSBM are pretty darn popular, and I firmly believe that is where a large chunk of Ness' recognizability and support is from. While GTA is a popular game, the character is NOT popular or even recognizable to people who have barely played or haven't played GTA. Anybody who has even SEEN SSB knows who Ness is.

And if Scorpion is more accurate, Auron > Magus.

Huzzah!
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Ness was barely favored to beat Jak last summer. He won't be the favorite to beat CJ. Not on your life.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

And if Scorpion is more accurate, Auron > Magus.

Sp2k5 Ganondorf > Auron through Scorp > Magus > 2k3 Ganondorf
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

That's why Ness is winning. But that won't necessarily translate into bracket support.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 001/001 - Matches: 01/01 - Rank: 00001/33793 - Today: CJ - Tomorrow: Zero

That's why I suggest adjustments through all three. CN is a god at these sorts of things, I'm sure he'll pull through if he decides to do it.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 001/001 - Matches: 01/01 - Rank: 00001/33793 - Today: CJ - Tomorrow: Zero

Sp2k5 Ganondorf

That's something I have a hard time taking seriously.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

The only character Ganondorf jumps ahead of with his Sp2k5 ranking is Magus. And perhaps Auron. It's not like they predict that he'll beat 2k4 Sonic or Mario.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

Regardless, there's really nothing but guestimation to base it on since we don't know how they compare to Link.
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Squall Leonhart's Road to the Summer Contest 2005 Championship
Round 1: (7) Geno

Yep, and there's nothing but guestimation to base Auron on, too.
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"Luca Blight's insane. He's a wolf raised on the smell of fire and the taste of blood."" ~ Viktor, Suikoden II

I've been uneasy on Ganondorf/Auron since day 1.

Why do I get the feeling my bracket's going to be a total train wreck? Well, at least Vivi doesn't get the rights to ruin my perfect two years in a row.
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SC2K5 status - Points: 001/001 - Matches: 01/01 - Rank: 00001/33793 - Today: CJ - Tomorrow: Zero