Could you post the difference please? I'm too lazy. =\

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A E I OWN U

I don't see why it should be. Both of these characters have completely different fanbases, which should logically equate to more votes, even if niether character has a mario-esque popularity.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
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at 2:10 this match had 8605
mario vs joanna had 84364 at tthe same time

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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

The more % CJ gains the closer he is to finally start making a comeback.

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A E I OWN U

And I think he already started.

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A E I OWN U

at 2:10 this match had 8605
mario vs joanna had 84364 at tthe same time

?
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!

47%, baby. let's keep it goin'.

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CJ is finally starting to make a push at the actual lead, after a while of the two stalemating each other.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996

Lead is now under 500.
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
http://boards.gamefaqs.com/gfaqs/genmessage.php?board=7&topic=21995996

Lead under 500!
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!

Finally, lead back under 500.

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A E I OWN U

He's off like a bull with gas!!! (expect me to use this phrase liberally throughout the contest)
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Board 8: Where people treat each other right.

Heh CJ starts his push at 5 am.

There isn't gonig to be much movement for the next 3 hours. Ths is the deadest part of the poll, the dead of night. CJ is slowing Ness down but there's also been a drop in TOTAL votes per update. Things will pick up at around 5AM PST when the east coast starts to wake up... and that's when CJ will make his comeback.

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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th

cj's finally charging down on ness. now the majority of this board can sleep peacefully if he keeps at it
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

Still, I find it convenient he's cutting down Ness' lead little by little now.

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A E I OWN U

CJ's first signifcant 5min. poll win

2005-07-20 02:20:00 4777 4282 52.73% 47.27% 495
2005-07-20 02:15:00 4678 4163 52.91% 47.09% 515

-20

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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th

Again though, total votes are down to ~225 per update. It's gunna be slow until 5am
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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th

From: Master Moltar | Posted: 7/19/2005 3:37:09 PM | Message Detail
The common sense in me says that Ness just cannot compete with something as vast and consuming as Grand Theft Auto. The mathematics, however, have left me with a slightly different outlook.

Yes, I felt the same way. My initial reaction was that CJ would have it; but then when I tried to work out the math, I just had trouble seeing CJ being as strong as he would have to be. Especially since I believe Ness was underrated due to trickle-down Auron SFF.

Besides, I picked Auron>Ganon, and Ness>CJ is consistent with that in terms of logic.

CJ is obviously not out of it by any means; but given that Ness is good with the day vote, and if he does fall behind as long as he keeps it close he can rally himself with the night vote, this match is at least a toss-up right now.


On Zero vs. Hayabusa: I lowered my Oracle challenge Zero prediction by 3 whole points just because of that pic.


On a side note, it looks like the Mario vs. Joanna poll was never locked down.
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www.SC2K5.com

I still think Tommy is stronger than Carl.
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Moisten your dreams with man urine.
http://www.geocities.com/nicklegends/ - All the Legends of the Hidden Temple info you could possibly want.

Am I the only one who finds it creepy that the comeback started to happen the moment Edouble made a topic saying so?
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Please sign this petition for a history board:
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Tommy is stronger than Carl. Today's match should prove that.

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A E I OWN U

It's been a 500 lead for the longest time now.
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Mario is Winnar
Next victim: Miss. Dark

ness is actually making another push?
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

More like his lead is in stasis right now. A few votes above or below 500.

From: Aprosenf | Posted: 7/19/2005 11:31:38 PM | Message Detail
I did not assume either that Magus overperformed against Link or that Cloud overperformed against Sonic. My algorithm was as follows: After finding the least-squares regression, calculate the difference between the actual result and expected result for every match, and remove the match that had the largest difference from the data set and re-do the regression assuming that match never happened. When I did this, the matches that came up were, in order, Link/Ganondorf 2k4, Bowser/Mario 2k4, Mario/Donkey Kong 2k2, the theoretical "Cloud 2k3 got 50% on Cloud 2k4" match, Cloud/Sonic 2k3, Link/Magus 2k3, and the theoretical "Sephiroth 2k2 got 50% on Sephiroth 2k3" match. In theory, this algorithm would enumerate the matches that had the most under/overperformance in them. From that data, I believe that Magus overperformed against Link in 2k3 and that Cloud overperformed against Sonic in 2k3. I did not make those assumptions purely for the result of adjusting the stats, they came out naturally.

Don't worry about what people say, your analysis was quite logical and actually straightforward :) Complex and a lot of work, but straightforward in terms of the steps you took.

It is indeed quite possible that Magus overperformed against Link; people have tossed that around before. I however do not believe that.

My "theory" (I use the term loosely) is that Magus is simply less recognizable; as indicated by his matches not getting the vote totals you'd expect from someone of his strength. I believe that Magus' fanbase is more of the "loyal" type.

WARNING: Highly simplified discussion below.

Imagine it visually, as a distribution: with some stratifying factor—such as demographics—on the x-axis; which signifies various parts of the voting population. And strength—the probability of them voting for a character—on the y-axis.

I see Magus' strength diagram looking like this:


xxxx
xxxx
xxxx
xxxx
xxxxxxx

[you can imagine the x-axis representing cultishness-->mainstreamness]

With his strength dropping off a lot among people that don't know him. Against a weaker character with "neutral" strength:

xxxxxxx
xxxxxxx

In this hypothetical example, Magus "wins" the first 4 segments (5:2), but loses the next three (2:1). He gets 57% of the segments, despite having 23/37=62% of the x's. The x's could represent total devotion of support; but it's the segments that determine votes.

In summary, characters with a "loyal" fanbase would be less likely to blow out neutral characters (characters with "flat" support), than characters with more "level"/mainstream appeal, even if in a direct matchup they are of equal strength.


This theory could also apply to Mega Man. Mega Man could have a mainstream/level fanbase—he's lovable and has a high appeal among everybody. Thus enabling him to demolish weaker characters that don't have a loyal fanbase, as Mega Man's strength will tend to be greater than theirs at every segment. Likewise, against mainstream characters stronger than himself, he might suffer from this same effect.

(Note that I am more likely to buy Mega Man demolishing people because of this than this being an explanation of his underperformance against Link; I actually lean more towards the pic factor or some other weird irregularity being the cause of that, rather than this theory)

All this would of course be very related to SFF. SFF would be a case of slight differences in how much a character is favored being exaggerated, because the segments where one character tends to show strength, coincide with and are dominated by the other character.
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www.SC2K5.com

Ness 52.64% 5053
Carl Johnson 47.36% 4547
TOTAL VOTES 9600

Same as it ever was, thus far.

Looks like Ness hit a ceiling.

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A E I OWN U

Yes, but can CJ tear the roof down?
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!

Ness 52.54% 5254
Carl Johnson 47.46% 4746
TOTAL VOTES 10000

OH NOES WHERE ARE YOU GAMESPOT

Ness 52.54% 5254
Carl Johnson 47.46% 4746
TOTAL VOTES 10000

Ness + 509
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!

Ness 52.53% 5255
Carl Johnson 47.47% 4748
TOTAL VOTES 10003

Missed it big time
Just above 500
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Spring Contest 2k5 Score: 76/80 T-117th

End the night on a same time post...
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"Chief, I smell ass and it's coming from your direction." - FFMrebirth
Go, Pack, Go!

Under 500.

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A E I OWN U

And back over. ><

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A E I OWN U

Ness 52.43% 5453
Carl Johnson 47.57% 4947
TOTAL VOTES 10400

Ness still warding off Carl's attempts at gaining ground...

3:00 mark
Ness 52.46% 5587
Carl Johnson 47.54% 5064
TOTAL VOTES 10651

And with that I'm off.

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A E I OWN U

TRE, how doe shte number of brackets this year compare to previous contests?
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"Have you missed me? Was I there? I was dreaming... someone cared" - Iio "Give it Up"

I honestly didn't expect Ness to be leading past the first hour. I expected it to be close then CJ pulls away to a comfortable victory, setting up a tougher than expected Mario/CJ match where Mario sweats throughout the day but wins in the end. Maybe I really, really am overrating GTA characters here :P Luckily though I went with Kefka against Vercetti.

Maybe the daytime push would benefit CJ but if I recall, there was a discussion about the daytime vote and how it didn't help Vercetti.
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Vote every day in the NCAA Character Battle 2005 contest!

Oh well, at least Kefka>Vercetti seems to be possible now.

GO CJ, make the comeback when the kiddies wakes up and votes for their "mature" character from the "mature" game!
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This user is my god
v

Holy crap! An exciting match on Day 2! Hooray!
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Chun-Li > Bowser book it - lol_internet
Vote for Kirby in SC2K5!

500 votes is nothing at this time in this contest. we've got something to watch today.

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All my base are belong to Yoblazer, winner of the Guru Contest.

Everytime it seems CJ is making a run Ness stops him and increases his lead higher than the previous high. How is he doing this? Ness of all characters.

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A E I OWN U

CJ is dropping precents, I guess this is it.

Stupid Ness for killing my perfect bracket, and with my luck TV will still beat Kefka.
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My biggest predictions: Mario over Samus, Alucard over Sora, Magus over Dante.

And now it's nearly a 600 vote lead.

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A E I OWN U

we still have 80k votes to go. anything can happen
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Kilroy:There fate will be in each other's hands as they decide whether to share or to shaft

I predict CJ will make another push for a comeback, watch Ness come right back out of nowhere and increase his lead to 700 just like that.

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A E I OWN U

Argh, looking like I'm getting match two wrong AGAIN... but it's still early days I guess.
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Jon Thomson - MARIO, Samus, SOLID SNAKE, Bowser, CRONO, Squall, Sonic, MEGA MAN

An exciting match this early in the contest.

Awesome!

Come on CJ. I voted for Ness, but by bracket must stay intact.
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"Heh Heh... The wind... It is blowing..."--Ganondorf Dragmire

Early morning vote favored Ness which is scary. CJ better win the day vote.

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A E I OWN U